Nobody Puts Rexy in the Corner

by Zachariah on Sep 19, 2007 8:06 PM CDT

Fun Little post over at the fan house.

7. Rex Grossman is Hopeless.

I'm Jumping. Last year, there was Good Rex and Bad Rex, and generally, if Good Rex showed up, the Bears won. In games where Bad Rex showed up, they were still around .500.

So far in 2007, only Bad Rex exists ... and the Bears are .500.

There are seven players who have thrown passes in the NFL this year that have QB ratings lower than Rex Grossman's. They are: J.T. O'Sullivan, Tarvaris Jackson, Ronald Curry, Luke McCown, Anthony Wright, Charlie Frye, and Kerry Collins. This not is hallowed company.

I honestly believe that if Lovie Smith showed up for a game hammered one Sunday and opted to make every third offensive play the Bears ran a 60-yard bomb, that Rex, Lovie, and everyone in Chicago would be much happier.

But the more interceptions Rex throws, the more the Bears want to bail out and make him a dinker-dunker in the mold of Jeff Garcia, and that's just not his game. It strips away his confidence, he becomes timid, he holds on to the ball too long, and he makes bad decisions ... and the more he does this, the less likely Lovie Smith is to just let Rex get loose back there. It's a vicious cycle.

Rex is like Jennifer Grey in Dirty Dancing ... you want him to be like everyone else, but he'll just sit in the corner and wilt. But if Lovie Smith were to take his hand, point to a 50-yard post play on his wristband, and say "Nobody puts Rexy in a corner," then Good Rex could surface once again.

Won't happen, though.

http://sports.aol.com/fanhouse/2007/09/19/the-debriefing-its-this-mat-that-has-different-conclusions /#cont

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qb-ratings

i am always shocked how many so-called "sports experts" throw this low qb rating out so much. when the qb rating formula was created, it was meant to have a sample size of a whole seasons worth of data (passes). so obviously after 2 games in to the season, or even looking at an individual game, a QB rating score is unrelaible and means nothing.

by ricky on Sep 20, 2007 12:33 PM CDT reply actions

thats not true

qb rating is comprised of the 4 most important stats of a qb, that is completion %, yds per attempt, TDs and INTs.

It doesn't matter if its one game or an entire season, a qb rating is the most effective way to determine how well a qb played.

by Terry @ Windy City Gridiron on Sep 20, 2007 2:42 PM CDT up reply actions

i guess

you don't know much about statistical analysis.

by Chad @ Windy City Gridiron on Sep 20, 2007 4:45 PM CDT up reply actions

I know what the most important

stats for a qb are and those are it.

by Terry @ Windy City Gridiron on Sep 20, 2007 4:52 PM CDT up reply actions

totally skewed

a quarterback can have a great game yet not have a great yards per attempt or even throw a td.

by Chad @ Windy City Gridiron on Sep 20, 2007 6:22 PM CDT up reply actions

not true

A qb can effectively manage a game without throwing a TD or having great yds per attempt, but theres no way you can say a qb played great.

Sure, if a qb has a great defense and strong running game he doesn't have to do a lot to win a game, but that doesn't mean he played great either.

by Terry @ Windy City Gridiron on Sep 21, 2007 7:28 AM CDT up reply actions

Not just game manangement

"Sure, if a qb has a great defense and strong running game he doesn't have to do a lot to win a game, but that doesn't mean he played great either."

I'm not saying it means that he did, I'm saying the he CAN.

by Chad @ Windy City Gridiron on Sep 21, 2007 12:39 PM CDT up reply actions

Fluff

If you know statistics so well, then why are you mixing stats around?

"a qb rating is the most effective way to determine how well a qb played."

"A qb can effectively manage a game without throwing a TD or having great yds per attempt, but theres no way you can say a qb played great."

The QB rating may be the best way to discern whether the QB was 'efficient' or 'effective'. But the most effective way to tell if the QB played well is to look at whether it was a win or a loss.

Get it?

There's a difference between a QB being effective, and a statistic being effective. If you know so much about statistics, you shouldn't mix up the two concepts.

by Larry @ Windy City Gridiron on Sep 22, 2007 4:14 AM CDT up reply actions

No

While I think that Terry is off his rocker, so are you.

Saying a quarterback's win/loss record is what tells you if they played well is just ignorant. You do know that a football game is played by an entire team, and not just one player, right?

A quarterback could go 20-20 for 400 yards and 8 touchdowns and still lose the game. Is that the quarterback's fault? Hell - Carson Palmer had a very good game last week, and still lost the game.

A win/loss record tells us something about a team's performance, which may or may not be related to how well a quarterback played. But it sure doesn't have to.

Get it?

visit the mindful mission.

by big_lowitzki on Sep 22, 2007 8:38 AM CDT up reply actions

I repeat.....

.....there's a difference between a QB being effective and a statistic being effective.

Do you understand this concept?

If you had to explain to a third-grader why Joe Montana was a better pro QB than Sean Salisbury, would you talk about QB rating or won-loss percentage? Would you talk about winning Super Bowls, or the ratio of TDs to INTs?

Of course, if you want to analyze a sample of just one game as in your example above of Carson Palmer last weekend, won-loss percentage may or may not be a good indication. But any hypotheses developed off a sample of one will probably be skewed, right?

If you're going to argue about whether Brett Favre is better than John Elway, then you may have to analyze the QB rating. But that's only because both QBs won so many games, including Super Bowls.

You wouldn't cite the QB rating in a discussion of why John Elway (79.9 career rating) was better than Brian Griese (82.4 career rating), would you???

by Larry @ Windy City Gridiron on Sep 22, 2007 3:27 PM CDT up reply actions

rex grossman

I repeat.....there's a difference between a QB being effective and a statistic being effective.

Do you understand this concept?

I am not stupid. I understand this concept.

But this concept has little to do with your idea that win/loss percentage is a good indicator of how well a quarterback plays.

Is Rex Grossman a great quarterback? Because I believe that he has one of the best win/loss % among active quarterbacks.

A win or loss is not the fault of the quarterback (for the most part). Football is a sport that, for the most part, one person cannot dominate and take over a game.

I really want to know if you think Rex Grossman is a great quarterback. Because he would be the perfect example to show how wrong your theory is (and I am a supporter of Grossman, btw, but I would never call him great).

visit the mindful mission.

by big_lowitzki on Sep 22, 2007 7:56 PM CDT up reply actions

Rex isn't great; Rex doesn't suck

Now you're trying to introduce a qualitative judgment ('great' quarterback) into a quantitative discussion. And I don't remember ever implying that Rex Grossman is 'great'.

But I did ask the original poster to put his money where his mouth is, just as you've asked me to, by telling us whether he'd have any of the other QBs he mentioned (Tavaris Jackson, Luke McCown, Charlie Frye, etc) over Rex. I wouldn't. I'd take Rex over any of those stiffs in a heartbeat.

Here's a thought: Take current NFL QBs with about the same number of QB starts as Rex over the same time-frame, and rank them by win percentage. I think you'll see the obvious: Rex Grossman isn't Peyton Manning nor Tom Brady. But he's also better than a lot of current QBs. But that would all be moot, also, because the Bears don't have all of those QBs on their roster.

I think Rex Grossman is a solid starting QB, and a much better choice than Brian Griese. I don't think Rex Grossman is great, nor do I think he's even half as bad as most of the media and many Bears fans. If the Bears choose to change starting QBs, I hope they start Kyle Orton, because Griese is a one-way ticket to a first-round playoff loss.

But I'd rather see the Bears switch offensive coordinators. I think Ron Turner is an arrogant, condescending a$$, just as he was at Illinois as he was destroying that football program. Great offensive coordinators are easier to find than great QBs. Manning and Brady aren't going to be on the market. The Bears could find a better OC in many places in the pro or college ranks. And I'm pretty sure a great OC could get more accomplished with Grossman, Griese, and Orton, or give all us fans a much more compelling reason to switch starters.

The reason to change starting QBs should have nothing to do with QB rating, it should be about wins and losses. And I don't see any better alternative right now than Rex. Prior to this season I would've entertained the possibility of Donovan McNabb, but after seeing him last week against the Redskins and then hearing him play the race card, I'm not so sure any more.

by Larry @ Windy City Gridiron on Sep 22, 2007 8:29 PM CDT up reply actions

Incorrect again

The most important stat for a QB is win-loss percentage.

If Eli Manning had the same winning percentage as Rex Grossman there would be far, far less people whining in New York.

by Larry @ Windy City Gridiron on Sep 22, 2007 4:09 AM CDT up reply actions

Incorrect.

The most effective way to determine how a QB played is to look at whether or not the team won.

Fact.

by Larry @ Windy City Gridiron on Sep 22, 2007 4:08 AM CDT up reply actions

3 times?

Did you really need to say the same thing three times?

visit the mindful mission.

by big_lowitzki on Sep 22, 2007 8:46 AM CDT up reply actions

Obviously

Well, since you obviously didn't understand the first three times, and I had to respond again above, writing the same thing three times wasn't enough.

Irony, thy name is biglowitzki.

by Larry @ Windy City Gridiron on Sep 22, 2007 3:50 PM CDT up reply actions

irony?

go read the definition of irony. then come back to me.

and even in your 4th response, it still doesn't make sense.

visit the mindful mission.

by big_lowitzki on Sep 22, 2007 7:56 PM CDT up reply actions

Whatever

"There are seven players who have thrown passes in the NFL this year that have QB ratings lower than Rex Grossman's. They are: J.T. O'Sullivan, Tarvaris Jackson, Ronald Curry, Luke McCown, Anthony Wright, Charlie Frye, and Kerry Collins. This not is hallowed company."

Please come right out and tell us that you would rather have any of those QBs, rather than Rex Grossman.

Otherwise your point is moot - so hypothetical as to be meaningless.

by Larry @ Windy City Gridiron on Sep 22, 2007 4:10 AM CDT reply actions