When do you take a shot on a QB in the first round?

Any guy you draft in the first round you want to be a for sure guy.  A guy that will be one of the best in the league within three years, especially when drafting at number 14.  

Are one of these QB's really going to elevate our QB play in the next 3 years.  I don't see it.  I think these QB's are all questionable.  We may be right back where we started with Grossman.  Waiting around for him to develop and not knowing what we have.  Look at Green Bay, Minnesota, & San Fran.  Do these guys know what they have in their young QB's already a couple years down the road?

Look at last year's draft with 3 for sure QB's: Young, Cutler, and Leinart.  Young played two full seasons and still isn't playing well (I know he wins, but so does Orton).  Cutler has a year and a half of game experience under him and hasn't shown any consistency yet.  And Lienart has a little over a year and was reduced to a split role with Warner before the injury.

Let's not even go into the Ryan Leaf's of the draft.

QB is a very tough position to draft unless you see Peyton Manning or Carson Palmer coming out.  These guys are not even close to that category.

Why not try to take a chance in the fourth or fifth round this year and see if we can pull a Tom Brady (sixth round) or Tony Romo (undrafted). Let's focus our draft on what we know we need: an offense line and a safety. Then we can take some risks at RB (if we don't acquire one in free agency), and maybe take a shot at QB.