Beating the Tampa Two = Beating the Lions

I have Jason Witten as my TE in my fantasy league, and I grabbed Olsen off waivers for this week.

I’m starting to wonder if he’s as good as we think he is?

I mean, I see Steven Jackson have huge games on the ground behind a really, really bad O-line. So, when’s Forte gonna step up behind this crappy line?

It’s virtually impossible to get a pass rush on quick, three step drops. Teams have been utilizing slant and other inside patterns that don’t take time to develop. The front four have to get some sort of push up the middle to collapse the pocket, and get their hands up on crossing routes. Is this really that difficult to do?

Brad Maynard is “resting” this week, instead of practicing. LOL.

… and to get all of my bashers off my back, here are some stats courtesy of Pro-football-reference.com

The top 25 NFL All-time leading rushers… with their rookie year YPC and their career YPC. Now, compare that to what Matt Forte is doing right now at 3.5 YPC, and let me know what kind of runner you think he’s going to be. The numbers say a lot by themselves.

1 Emmitt Smith 18,355 – Rookie YPC = 3.9 – Career YPC = 4.2
2 Walter Payton 16,726 – Rookie YPC = 3.5 – Career YPC = 4.4
3 Barry Sanders 15,269 – Rookie YPC = 5.3 – Career YPC = 5.0
4 Curtis Martin 14,101 – Rookie YPC = 4.0 – Career YPC = 4.0
5 Jerome Bettis 13,653 – Rookie YPC = 4.9 – Career YPC = 3.9
6 Eric Dickerson 13,259 – Rookie YPC = 4.6 – Career YPC = 4.4
7 Tony Dorsett 12,739 – Rookie YPC = 4.8 – Career YPC = 4.3
8 Jim Brown 12,312 – Rookie YPC = 4.7 – Career YPC = 5.2
9 Marcus Allen 12,243 – Rookie YPC = 4.4 – Career YPC = 4.1
10 Marshall Faulk 12,162 – Rookie YPC = 4.1 – Career YPC = 4.3
11 Franco Harris 12,120 – Rookie YPC = 5.6 – Career YPC = 4.1
12 Thurman Thomas 12,074 – Rookie YPC = 4.3 – Career YPC = 4.2
13 EDGERRIN JAMES 11,987 – Rookie YPC = 4.2 – Career YPC = 4.1
14 John Riggins 11,352 – Rookie YPC = 4.3 – Career YPC = 3.9
15 Corey Dillon 11,238 – Rookie YPC = 4.8 – Career YPC = 4.3
16 O.J. Simpson 11,236 – Rookie YPC = 3.9 – Career YPC = 4.7
17 LADAINIAN TOMLINSON 11,201 – Rookie YPC = 3.6 – Career YPC = 4.5
18 FRED TAYLOR 10,981 – Rookie YPC = 4.6 – Career YPC = 4.6
19 Ricky Watters 10,643 – Rookie YPC = 4.9 – Career YPC = 4.1
20 WARRICK DUNN 10,604 – Rookie YPC = 4.4 – Career YPC = 4.1
21 Tiki Barber 10,449 – Rookie YPC = 3.8 – Career YPC = 4.7
22 Eddie George 10,441 – Rookie YPC = 4.1 – Career YPC = 3.6
23 Ottis Anderson 10,273 – Rookie YPC = 4.8 – Career YPC = 4.0
24 Joe Perry 9,723 – Rookie YPC = 7.3 – Career YPC = 5.0
25 JAMAL LEWIS 9,589 – Rookie YPC = 4.4 – Career YPC = 4.3

Now… taking a look at that, on 5 out of the top 25 all-time leading rushers averaged less than 4 YPC their rookie year. Out of those 5, two of them (Smith and Simpson) averaged a close 3.9 YPC.

Forte’s a nice football player. He excels at all phases of the game: run, catch, block. However… if Forte continues to run for a measly 3.5 YPC during the remainder of his rookie year, it doesn’t appear that he’ll become one of the elite RB in the NFL for the next 3-5 years.