Orton Out Next 4 Weeks
It could be worse, but not much. Heading into possibly the toughest portion of our schedule with undefeated Tennessee, divisional rivals Green Bay and Minnesota only a game behind and the only possible easy game though not as easy as it was St. Louis the Bears will be without their newly found offensive star QB Kyle Orton. Orton will be sidelined for a month with a high ankle sprain.
The Bears will need to rely heavily on their run game to fuel their offense, but that won't be easy. Opposing teams will be stacking the line to stop the run until Rex Grossman proves he can beat them. Had Orton been at the helm the Bears could have been a dark horse candidate to stop the Titans win streak. They had the production on offense, they are tough against the run which is Tennessee's strong suit and they could score from defense and special teams. Now they may need the scores from those two units just to stay in the game.
The good part is if Grossman and the Bears can win a few and stay in the race Orton will be back at the helm for the last 4 and a run at the playoffs.
Comments
Orton QB Rating vs. quality of opponent
(from previous thread but belongs here)
rating is their Defensive DVOA provided at Football Outsiders going into this week
Colts – 83.4/16th/13th (overall followed by pass rating)
Panthers – 71/10th/8th
Tampa Bay – 83.9/1st/3rd
Philadelphia – 75.5/5th/4th
Detroit – 121.4/32nd/32nd
Atlanta – 87.9/25th/25th
Minnesota – 114.5/6th/6th
that was a great game vs. the Vikings but I’m not sure there’s anything else impressive in there. Good, but nothing all too overwhelming imo.
for Rex’s next 4 games
@Titans – 4th/1st (when Rex shits his pants you’ll know why, honestly if he puts up anything over a 75 rating I’d be thrilled)
@GB – 8th/2nd
Rams – 28th/21st (bounceback game for Rex)
@Vikings – 6th/6th
might as well finish the schedule
Jags – 23rd/28th (orton comes back and lights them up, YOU SUCK REX chants will be heard)
Saints – 24th/23rd
Packers – 8th/2nd
Texans – 31st/26th
so Rex will probably struggle for the next month having to face the 2 toughest pass defenses in the league. Hopefully he’ll avoid disaster Rex territory, but he certainly won’t put up the numbers Orton did the last 3-4 weeks. Orton gets to skate by missing the toughest opponents on the schedule all year and then come back vs 3 of 4 weak pass defenses and signs a multiyear deal to be the Bears QB and the Bears pass on McNabb.
and since i know this will spiral into Rex vs. Orton debate and how I’m a Rex-lover, let me assure that is not the case. I think they’re equal parts mediocre.
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by thecubreporter on
Nov 2, 2008 10:54 PM CST
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Orton has shown he's the real deal
I'M A MAN! I'M 22!
by ChiFan13 on
Nov 2, 2008 11:14 PM CST
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huh?
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by thecubreporter on
Nov 2, 2008 11:19 PM CST
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...
Orton gets to skate by missing the toughest opponents on the schedule all year and then come back vs 3 of 4 weak pass defenses and signs a multiyear deal to be the Bears QB and the Bears pass on McNabb.
That’s a helluva copout.
I'M A MAN! I'M 22!
by ChiFan13 on
Nov 2, 2008 11:29 PM CST
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how is that a copout?
if his numbers are artificially inflated by playing the weakest opponents in the league and missing the best?
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by thecubreporter on
Nov 2, 2008 11:38 PM CST
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While I can appreciate your assessment of both QB's as mediocre...
I believe it’s a bit disingenuous to claim that his numbers are that grossly inflated. Through Week 8, Orton had a YAR of 358, and a DYAR of 419. Since DYAR adjusts for opponents, that positive differential shows that the level of competition that Orton has faced is higher than average. For the interest of comparison, some players with negative DYAR/YAR differentials:
A. Rodgers: – 74
P. Rivers: – 68
E. Manning: – 63
J. Cutler: – 54
J. Campbell: – 51
Anyway, I guess those numbers could be affected disproportionately by his performance in the MIN game, or even the TB/PHI game (as FO is wont to heap love on philly), but it definitely suggests he hasn’t been facing Pop Warner squads either. I’m a little too lazy to find average QB ratings versus the 3rd, 4th, 6th and 8th Pass DVOA’s in the game, but I’m sure that being around league average (83.9) is nothing to be ashamed of, esp. for a young(ish) starter. I guess we can wait and see what Rex does against one team (TEN) that is much better than everyone in the league, one near the top in pass DVOA and the bottom in run DVOA (GB) and a couple opponents similar to what Orton has already faced. I think Rex will helm a 2-2 team, and will alternate egregious with amazing play unpredictably.
by teleologue on
Nov 3, 2008 2:36 AM CST
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didn't mean to imply they were
grossly inflated…just inflated.
He’s tied for 13th in DYAR in the league, 15th in DVOA… 32 teams in the league and FO lists 39 QB’s. So a little above average so far, but certainly not Pro Bowl caliber as I think I read somewhere on this site a few weeks back.
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by thecubreporter on
Nov 3, 2008 2:52 AM CST
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lol
That’s absolutely fine. I was really hoping Orton wasn’t hurt for a long period of time, because now the “Rex is all-powerful, great, and I’ll come up with an excuse for every mistake” ridiculous statements start.
By the way, like I brought up yesterday in the game thread, Rex just had terrific accuracy and strength on the long ball (/sarcasm). I do remember people were really upset at Orton for that very point; yet, when I asked the people on the thread, mike b and I were the only ones discussing that. Hmmm…..
I'M A MAN! I'M 22!
by ChiFan13 on
Nov 3, 2008 9:28 AM CST
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I love the Orton development
I still think Rex got an unfair shake and that he had a horrible situation to play in. I also said that Kyle looked nervous making decisions in the first two games of the year and stand by that, but what Kyle has done that I love is show improvement. Really every week he looks better, more poised, more confident, more accurate, a better leader. As much as I still believe Rex had a horrible situation last season and was young two season ago. I want Kyle back quickly. I don’t even want to see him play, but I hope he does well. I’m watching that OL though. If they start letting people through all game long, you’ll hear conspiracy!
Kick it to me... I'm open!
by #23 on
Nov 3, 2008 4:59 PM CST
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Gotcha...
I don’t think he’s reached the elite tier either, but he continues to impress me with his evolution in decision making and accuracy. You know what’s interesting though? I was ready to make a point about how corpse-like the rec. corps was and found that they were 13th in NFL in YAC. That’s probably buoyed by Forte’s 224 yds (14th in the league) and the numerous screens that they’ve run, but it illustrates that he’s working with a serviceable, if not outstanding, group of receivers. Not every QB can have Boldin, Fitzgerald and Breaston.
by teleologue on
Nov 3, 2008 1:10 PM CST
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Orton the Messiah
Can someone also mention what an idiot Orton was for not throwing the ball away? He had nowhere to go and he was out of the pocket. A smart QB just throws that ball out of bounds.
by kmatus on
Nov 3, 2008 6:24 AM CST
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he was trying to do whatever he could to get that first down and move the chains...
it didn’t work out. I think that was more of the fault of the offensive linemen anyway. The first half, they were pathetic at the pass rush and they were coming free after Orton. Orton ran out of the box and went for the first down. If his O-linemen gave him a little of time, Orton wouldn’t have had to improvise like that.
by aznsensation on
Nov 3, 2008 7:23 AM CST
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Unrealistic expectations
You expect 300+ pound linemen to run sideline to sideline, all while sustaining their blocks against faster D-linemen? It’s very rare to see even one in the picture while a QB is scrambling out of bounds. There was no possible way for Orton to pick up the first down on that particular play. I agree with KMATUS about not throwing it away.
"I'm not so mean. I wouldn't ever go out to hurt anybody deliberately - unless it was, you know, important, like a league game or something." - Dick Butkus
by propheteer on
Nov 4, 2008 12:05 AM CST
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Before the Orton. vs Rex debates get going
let us not forget the real battle
Sex Cannon vs. Neck Beard
http://kissingsuzykolber.uproxx.com/2008/11/unleash-the-dragon.html
http://deadspin.com/tag/kyle-orton/
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by thecubreporter on
Nov 2, 2008 10:55 PM CST
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Oh boy
it is going to be an interesting 4 weeks. i hope we see the gunslinger of old out there throwing the ball all over the damn field and tripping and falling with all kinds of general craziness.
On grossman’s interception yesterday btw…doesn’t that shit always seem to happen to Rex? I’m not trying to make excuses for him here, but jesus chriminy it seems like he has a lot of balls picked off after they get batted at the line or by some linebacker throwing a hand up over the middle, dude is unlucky as shit.
by lopey986 on
Nov 3, 2008 6:10 AM CST
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Grossman can't help that he's shorter than most QB's, he's bound to get balls batted and intercepted
by aznsensation on
Nov 3, 2008 7:24 AM CST
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he isn't shorter than favre
to name 1 qb. i think it has more to do with the fact that rex is a damn statue in the pocket. he doesn’t move at all which makes it easy for the lineman to throw hands up and get in his passing lane.
by lopey986 on
Nov 3, 2008 10:30 PM CST
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Favre is 6'2'', Grossman is 6'1''
His stats are as good as Fields -- that's the sad thing
by Jbasic89 on
Nov 3, 2008 11:00 PM CST
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an inch is pretty huge
His stats are as good as Fields -- that's the sad thing
by Jbasic89 on
Nov 4, 2008 12:47 AM CST
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You were wrong and should admit it.
We all make mistakes, but to act like you were right isn’t cool.
Kick it to me... I'm open!
by #23 on
Nov 4, 2008 9:29 AM CST
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Obviously, that one inch makes him a better defender
Oops, this isn’t BlogaBull…
--Torch
by torch on
Nov 4, 2008 7:31 AM CST
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Well, if he got called out on it
he should own up to it. Or just be right.
I'M A MAN! I'M 22!
by ChiFan13 on
Nov 4, 2008 10:03 AM CST
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okay, i admit i was wrong
but by and inch? 1 inch makes all the difference of balls getting batted down at the line?
here, how about this comparison. rex grossman is not shorter than doug flutie who seemed to do just fine in the nfl.
by lopey986 on
Nov 4, 2008 1:06 PM CST
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I would say Doug Flutie has his moments
He was in and out of the NFL and spent a lot of time as a backup. He was fun to watch because of his energy and scrambling, but in the pocket, I’m pretty sure he was at a disadvantage because of his height. To me 1 inch makes a big difference. If a lineman is 6’2 or even 6’0" it is the difference between trying to see over a guy, getting a decent view over a guy, or having a great view of the field.
That is no excuse for Grossman though. You have to play with the cards you were dealt. It’s your performance vs. their performance. If you can’t cut it, you can’t cut it.
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by #23 on
Nov 4, 2008 1:12 PM CST
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Also, you have to consider how close the person's eyes are to the top of their forehead.
I mean a guy 6’2" with a small forehead will have a better view than a 6’2" guy with a huge forehead.
Kick it to me... I'm open!
by #23 on
Nov 4, 2008 1:14 PM CST
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Mike Brown
Any news on Mike Brown’s injury?
by McRipper on
Nov 3, 2008 8:31 AM CST
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this one month thing
while everyone is saying that…. is unofficial information/speculation. kyle gets an mri today and i think we’ll know more after that.
by rahulsriram on
Nov 3, 2008 10:20 AM CST
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Thank You
From Peter King’s SI.com Article:
High ankle sprain for Kyle Orton. Bears have Titans at home, then at Green Bay. Dangerous times to throw Rex Grossman back in there, but don’t count Orton out yet. Offensive coordinator Ron Turner told me after the game Orton said he felt "pretty good,‘’ and Orton told a friend last night he felt better than he thought he would. We’ll find out more this noon after the Bears do an MRI on the ankle, but initial X-rays were negative. If it’s a legit high ankle sprain, I’d expect Orton to miss two games. But since he’s not known for his mobility anyway, maybe he’d come back for the Green Bay game as a statue in the pocket.
by Bear_Down on
Nov 3, 2008 10:38 AM CST
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Well... it completely sucks
That we finally get some stellar play from the QB position, and now Orton goes down. However, that situation doesn’t completely suck as much as the performance of this team does.
Two weeks to prepare for the worst team in the league, and we still can’t stop anyone. And Bob Babich moved from the booth to the sidelines for this one… when asked why, he said “they wanted to simplify things.”
So… they have a bye week, and they decide to simplify the playbook? Great… you’re supposed to use that time to expand what you do.
Or, does that mean they wanted to “simplify” Lovie pulling the strings for his “yes” man. It’s a lot easier for Lovie to tell Babich what to do when they’re standing next to eachother.
This team is not very good… and it will show without the stellar play of Orton.
At least Forte ran the ball well yesterday… up until the final 3 minutes when we needed to run the clock out (same as usual).
I'm not going to even bother trying to update this sig everyday anymore... that's what the standings column on ESPN is for.
Updated on May 25, 2008
by SackMan on
Nov 3, 2008 12:16 PM CST
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I was wondering what you'd say about Forte :)
But everything else is agreed.
The problem is that people see that we have a good offense, which is not the case. Orton makes the players around him look good. I’m sorry, but when you have Devin Hester (a #3 at best anywhere else), Marty Booker (AARP, anyone?), Rashied Davis (granted, decent receiver w/ good speed), and Brandon Lloyd (who has racked up more free hotel nights than anyone), it’s tough to make that squad look good. But, Orton does.
Orton excels in the short-to-intermediate passing game (meaning he can hit his receivers with accuracy and the correct amount of speed behind it). He isn’t as great in the long-ball game. Rexy is better than Orton at the long-range game, but he couldn’t hit a receiver on a five-yard out route if he had an RPG. I think we’re gonna see a huge dip in passing offense with Rex back in.
I'M A MAN! I'M 22!
by ChiFan13 on
Nov 3, 2008 12:45 PM CST
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Like I said above
This team is not very good… and it will show without the stellar play of Orton.
I'm not going to even bother trying to update this sig everyday anymore... that's what the standings column on ESPN is for.
Updated on May 25, 2008
by SackMan on
Nov 3, 2008 1:03 PM CST
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Forte finally had another 100 yard effort
But, I’m still not all that happy about it.
For one, he failed to score on that run hwere he got tripped up at the 1! Screwed me out of fantasy points :)
Second, as I mentioned before… they can’t run the ball when it matters most: with a lead, late in the 4th QTR.
I'm not going to even bother trying to update this sig everyday anymore... that's what the standings column on ESPN is for.
Updated on May 25, 2008
by SackMan on
Nov 3, 2008 1:05 PM CST
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I don't have Forte...
…and trust me, I was pissed that Rex snuck it in. But, it was nice to see Forte has 5+ YPA.
Second, I agree that we tend to go with the pass when it matters. Used to be ok when we had Orton, but now that we don’t, we need to fix it ASAP.
We’re on the same page with Orton….I’m not looking forward to the weeks we see Sexy Rexy behind center.
I'M A MAN! I'M 22!
by ChiFan13 on
Nov 3, 2008 1:28 PM CST
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Did you all not notice Forte do well on the last drive?
We took over on a drive after a punt deep in our own territory, 3 straight passes all missed 3 and out. Next possession, run 9 yards, run again, pass, run again down to the 1, Grossman sneak, we win. Sure we can’t run the clock out, but they were stacked against us. In my eyes we were gaining 8-9 yards a carry and we were shying away from the run, then when we got back to it we scored.
Fire Ron Turner!!!
Fire Angelo!!
by GallopingGhost on
Nov 3, 2008 2:52 PM CST
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It's not that we always tend to go with the pass when it matters.
It’s the fact that WE CAN’T RUN WHEN IT MATTERS!
You have a one score lead, late in the 4th quarter… and the ball is in your hands. That’s when you’re supposed to run the ball down your opponent’s throat and seal the win.
We can’t do that…. we suck at it. And, I know much of that is our crappy O-line, but if Forte is as good as we all want him to be, he’ll find a way to get those yards.
I’m also pissed Turner used that stupid play to McKie down near the goaline again. He’s lucky the Lions suck, because that was the second time he ran that play yesterday. Remember what happened the second time he ran it against the Panthers? Game over.
I'm not going to even bother trying to update this sig everyday anymore... that's what the standings column on ESPN is for.
Updated on May 25, 2008
by SackMan on
Nov 3, 2008 3:03 PM CST
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At the same time, remember those two things that you said
He is a rookie, and he’s playing behind a bad OL. Once (if) we shore the second one up, he’ll be better. I know you want it to be better now, and I agree with you on that, but also remember that defenses are keying on stopping Forte. He’s not AP, but he’s a good running back. I don’t think anyone can doubt that.
But yes, I agree on the Turner issue. McKie SHOULD be banned from the playbook, but he won’t be.
I'M A MAN! I'M 22!
by ChiFan13 on
Nov 3, 2008 3:18 PM CST
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Rexy against the Titans D?
This is going to be entertaining as hell.
"I’m gonna rise up, gonna kick a little ass. Gonna kick some ass in the USA. Gonna climb a mountain, gonna sew a flag, gonna fly on an eagle. I’m gonna kick some butt, gonna drive a big truck. I’m gonna rule this world. I’m gonna kick some ass. I’m gonna rise up, gonna kick a little ass. Rock, flag, and eagle!"
by Ozzie Montana on
Nov 3, 2008 1:08 PM CST
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For the Titans, maybe. As a Bears fan, I'll be crying.
I'M A MAN! I'M 22!
by ChiFan13 on
Nov 3, 2008 1:29 PM CST
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I'm very nervous.
Kick it to me... I'm open!
by #23 on
Nov 3, 2008 5:04 PM CST
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Titan's already smell the fear on Grossman and they will be coming after him all day...
I’m praying that Grossman plays well, but I am afraid of the pressure the Titans will bring. I hope Ron Turner and Lovie Smith gameplan well and put Grossman in the shotgun to give him an extra second or two. I don’t mind letting Grossman be a gunslinger for this game as long as he makes good decisions. Here’s to hoping Grossman doesn’t get hurt for at least four weeks. And for whoever told me Caleb Hanie was out yesterday, where did you get your information because I couldn’t find that anywhere.
by aznsensation on
Nov 3, 2008 6:29 PM CST
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I beleive Hanie was inactive...
I don’t think he’s dressed on gameday at all this season.
I'm not going to even bother trying to update this sig everyday anymore... that's what the standings column on ESPN is for.
Updated on May 25, 2008
by SackMan on
Nov 3, 2008 8:15 PM CST
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he is dressed
he is just listed as the emergency qb…i think the only way he can play is if qb1 and qb2 go down with injuries. i’d imagine grossman will be qb1 this weekend with hanie qb2 and orton the emergency qb.
by lopey986 on
Nov 3, 2008 10:28 PM CST
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false
He’s dressed I think every game. You can spot him on the sidelines fairly often during TV coverage, if you have an eagle eye for unproven backup QBs.
by alexandergray on
Nov 4, 2008 12:49 AM CST
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As long as his picks are more like punts and on 3rd and 20 and they don't return it.
Kick it to me... I'm open!
by #23 on
Nov 3, 2008 9:18 PM CST
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this 4 week report being thrown around is real premature
even lovie said that, i also heard it from Joniak and Thayer, I think its a wait and see it could be more it could be less.
by eternale1 on
Nov 3, 2008 5:39 PM CST
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What I really loved about Orton yesterday...
I don’t think anybody really mentioned this yesterday during the game as I just rewatched the game on dvr, but Orton wanted to come back and keep playing after he got hurt. He was hopping towards the huddle to go for it on fourth down, until he went to the ground and grabbed his leg. I just loved that desire in him. He wants to play and win. I hope he comes back soon and continue the way he has been playing.
by aznsensation on
Nov 3, 2008 7:03 PM CST
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This might sound crazy but
i think rexy will have a decent game.I think the Titians will blitz the hell out of him which will give rex the oppertunity to toss it downfield to hester.As long as our OL can hold the fort and give rex some time IMO i think he’ll have a big game.
by eross226 on
Nov 3, 2008 9:48 PM CST
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the key is protection
in rex’s start in the preseason in seattle, he had absolutely no protection. they sacked him in 4 seconds on a shotgun play. if turner decides to go max protect at times, use the no-huddle and shotgun, and throw slants until the titans ease up on their blitzing, rex could definitely do well.
by guy incognito on
Nov 3, 2008 11:20 PM CST
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max protect
won’t help up the middle, which was as much of the problem as the outsides.
by mike b on
Nov 3, 2008 11:41 PM CST
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heh, who would have thought we would be upset when KYLE ORTON got injured
He has definitely surprised me this year. Unfortunetly, he is injured but I think Grossman steps up big…
2009 Cubs: Well, Seems so far away..
by Chanman25 on
Nov 3, 2008 10:23 PM CST
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Curb the rush
Turner and co. have to implement a lot of screens, draws, delayed draws, shovel passes, and maybe a little trickery with some “wildcat” formations with Hester. Anything to disrupt the Titans pash rush and game plan to bring the house against Rexy. They obviously can’t turn the ball over against this team and expect to win.
"I'm not so mean. I wouldn't ever go out to hurt anybody deliberately - unless it was, you know, important, like a league game or something." - Dick Butkus
by propheteer on
Nov 4, 2008 12:13 AM CST
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curious
I think as Orton ran it in for his touchdown, an announcer said that it had been a couple of seasons since a Bears QB scored a rushing TD, even off of a sneak. When was the last time two Bears quarterbacks scored rushing touchdowns in the same game, before last Sunday?
by alexandergray on
Nov 4, 2008 12:52 AM CST
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a few trivia answers
the last time a chicago bears qb had a rushing touchdown was in 2004, by rex grossman.
kordell stewart had 3 rushing touchdowns for the bears in 2003.
cade mcnown had 3 rushing touchdowns as well, in 2000.
in 1998 the bears had 2 quarterbacks record a rushing touchdown; steve stenstrom had 2 and erik kramer had 1.
in 1997 the bears also had 2 quarterbacks rush for a touchdown; 2 by erik kramer and 1 by rick mirer.
in 1996 the bears again had 2 qbs rush for touchdowns; 1 by dave krieg and 1 by shane matthews.
in 1995 erik kramer had 1 rushing touchdown.
wow, in 1993 jim haurbaugh had 4 rushing touchdowns!
i went all the way back to 1990 and saw no record of 2 bears quarterbacks rushing for a td in the same game. i can’t stand to look back any further because we had some pretty piss poor teams and guys like peter tom willis, kordell stewart, cade mcnown and moses moreno playing qb for us. god i’m glad this website wasn’t around in the 90s, it would’ve been more of a suicide hotline than a bears forum.
by lopey986 on
Nov 4, 2008 1:32 AM CST
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it was december 7, 1986 against tampa bay
doug flutie and mike tomczak scored rushing tds in the same game.
His stats are as good as Fields -- that's the sad thing
by Jbasic89 on
Nov 4, 2008 1:42 AM CST
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How well does Rex have to play to take the job from Orton when he returns?
If the Bears win all four games (Tenn, GB, STL, Minn), and Rex throws around 8 TD and less than 5 picks, I think he should get the game against JAX.
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on
Nov 4, 2008 4:45 PM CST
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Not a chance
First, Rex won’t have 8 TD’s and less than 5 picks.
Second, Kyle’s the starter. Rex would have to just go wild to take the job.
I'M A MAN! I'M 22!
by ChiFan13 on
Nov 4, 2008 5:04 PM CST
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well
not like rex hasn’t gone on a run before. i hope he does. having 2 good quarterbacks is a damn good dilemma to have.
by lopey986 on
Nov 5, 2008 12:59 AM CST
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Not if you're a Bears fan
We don’t need continued QB controversy. I’m tired of it.
I'M A MAN! I'M 22!
by ChiFan13 on
Nov 5, 2008 1:12 AM CST
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i think it'd be different
if the controversy surrounded 2 guys playing well and not 2 guys who are playing equally bad.
i think rex’s fate is pretty much sealed in chicago, he’d have to absolutely light up the titans defense to the tune of 3 or 4 tds and no turnovers to even have a chance at starting a month down the road.
by lopey986 on
Nov 6, 2008 1:23 AM CST
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