Current Bears Playoff Scenarios Including Wildcard

by Bear_Down on Dec 12, 2008 8:00 PM CST Comment 9 comments

Okay, we all know now that if the Bears win their next 2, they only need Minnesota to lose 2 out of their next 3.

If the Bears win one of their next 2, they need Minnesota to lose out in their next 3.

If the Bears lose their next 2, they're done.

But now let's look at their slim Wild Card chances:

Bears Still Need Help After Beating Saints

Chicago would still have a mathematical shot at the wild card with a loss, but the odds are slim at best, even if it beats Green Bay and Houston on Dec. 28. In that case, the Bears would need four of these five scenarios to play out:

Washington to lose one of its three remaining games. (@ Cin, vs. Phi, @ SF)

Philadelphia to lose one of its last three. (vs. Cle, @ Was, vs. Dal)

Atlanta to drop two of three. (vs. TB, @ Min, vs. Stl)

Dallas to lose two of three. (vs. NYG, vs. Bal, @ Phi)

Tampa Bay to lose its final three games. (@ Atl, vs. SD, vs. Oak)

So you have to imagine Tampa Bay losing out would be pretty improbable with 2 home games.

So that leaves the 1st 4 scenarios needed:

Washington could conceivably lose to Phi OR SF.

Philadelphia could conceivably lose to Was OR Dal.

Atlanta could conceivably lose to TB and Min. (Min losing to Ari & NYG would ease that Atl loss)

Dallas could conceivably lose to NYG, Bal, OR Phi.

So, THIS weekend we are looking for Washington, Philadelphia, Atlanta, and Dallas to all lose. One week at a time, and winning the Division looks a little easier, but it's nice to know who else we should be rooting for this weekend in addition to Arizona.

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sheesh, if only we beat Minnesota we wouldn't be having this issue

"Charles Tillman is one of the best strippers in the NFL" - John Madden 11/30/08 Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings game

by Chanman25 on Dec 12, 2008 9:42 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

To Tell You The Truth

I rather root for Dallas, Atlanta, Arizona, and Carolina this weekend.

Why?
Well Arizona=duh

But if Dallas and Carolina win, the Panthers are that much closer to the number one seed meaning the Giants have to play their starters come Week 17 against the vikings.

And Atlanta needs to win, so they still think they have a shot, so they play hard against Minny next week.

The wildcard is a long shot, rather root for the division.

by Edicus2288i on Dec 12, 2008 11:20 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

that's kind of assinine

ATL regardless of a loss will still NEED a win in Week 16 to be alive, they won’t be resting anyone.

Also if NYG win AND CAR wins this week the Week 16 matchup is CAR vs. NYG, so you could root for NY to win this week and lose next week and they’re STILL playing for homefield in Week 17 against MIN

by DartmouthCubsFan on Dec 13, 2008 8:50 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

hey look at that!

Dallas beat the Giants and it ASSURED the GIants that there Week 17 game against the vikings means NOTHING

by DartmouthCubsFan on Dec 15, 2008 7:47 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

i posted something like this

in the original playoff scenario thread…

but its not 4 of 5, its 3 of 4. One of Phi/Was is guaranteed a loss unless they tie in Week 16.

This thread also makes it seem so unlikely and its not.

The two main things we need (for the wildcard) are TB beating ATL and NYG beating DAL. If those two things happen we’re in OK shape. If neither of them happen, we’re likely out of it. It’s as simple as that

It would be helpful if PHI and WAS lose but it’s unlikely and not completely necessary

as i posted before if those TWO things happen, the playoff picture looks like this:

Division leaders

NYG 12-2
CAR 11-3 (or 10-4, doesn’t matter since their game is Non-conference this week)
ARZ 9-5 or 8-6 (result of the game this week won’t change division leaders since MIN has tiebreak on us)
MIN 9-5 or 8-6

Wildcards

TB 10-4 (we can’t catch them since they have tiebreak unless they lose out and if they lose out that means ATL gets another win who we need to chase down, so we’re actually rooting for them to win this week and basically targeting the #6 seed)
PHI 8-5-1 (I’m giving them the win at home against CLE)

Next Contenders

WAS 8-6 (6-4 in conference) (I’m giving them a win against CIN)
DAL 8-6 (6-5 in conference)
CHI 8-6 (6-5 in conference)
ATL 8-6 (5-5 in conference)

At that point in Week 16 we’d have two matchups where we’d be guaranteed to have a contending team lose and a contending team win: PHI vs. WAS and MIN vs. ATL. This means as long as we beat GB we’d be guaranteed to have some sort of playoff hopes in Week 17 (if ATL and DAL lose this weekend)

by DartmouthCubsFan on Dec 13, 2008 8:49 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Chicago would still have a mathematical shot at the wild card with a loss, but the odds are slim at best, even if it beats Green Bay and Houston on Dec. 28. In that case, the Bears would need four of these five scenarios to play out:

    * Washington to lose one of its three remaining games. (@ Cin – L, vs. Phi, @ SF) CHECK
    * Philadelphia to lose one of its last three. (vs. Cle – Mon., @ Was, vs. Dal)
    * Atlanta to drop two of three. (vs. TB – W, @ Min, vs. Stl)
    * Dallas to lose two of three. (vs. NYG – W, vs. Bal, @ Phi)
    * Tampa Bay to lose its final three games. (@ Atl – L, vs. SD, vs. Oak)

Bears Wildcard hopes took a hit with Tampa Bay losing to Atlanta. We would need Atlanta to lose their next 2 OR Tampa Bay to lose their next 2. For obvious reasons, we can’t have Atlanta losing to Min for our Division hopes would take a hit AND they play the hapless Rams in Week 17, thus making it unlikely Atlanta will lose out. Therefore, we have to root for Tampa Bay to lose their next 2 AT HOME none-the-less, Dallas to lose their next 2, and Philadelphia to lose tomorrow vs. Cle, @ Was, or vs. Dal. Our Wild Card hopes come down to Tampa Bay and their ability to win at home. Otherwise, we’re looking at winning our next 2 and Minnesota losing their next 2. I can see Minnesota doing that with a hungry Atlanta team and a Giants team that will actually be playing for a better seed after tonight’s loss to Dallas.

So, for the upcoming games, we need Philly to lose tomorrow night to Cleveland, Dallas to lose next Saturday vs. Baltimore, and Tampa Bay to lose next Sunday vs. San Diego to keep the Wildcard hopes alive.

by Bear_Down on Dec 14, 2008 10:52 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Take what you just wrote and make a new fanpost

I’ll talk to WCG and see if he wants this on the front page.

I'M A MAN! I'M 22!

by ChiFan13 on Dec 14, 2008 10:57 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Also.

Bear in mind that if Philly’s loss is to Dallas, we’re out that way, instead. So we need Philly to lose one of its next two, not one of its last three.

—d

by itsugly on Dec 14, 2008 11:25 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs