Playoff Fate Not Their Own

With the loss to the Vikings this past weekend the Bears lost the ability to control their own destiny so far as the playoffs are concerned.  Since it is fair and almost a lock to say that only the division winner will make it in, it is time to take a look the playoff tiebreakers.  

Current Standings:

TEAM OVERALL DIVISION
Minnesota Vikings 7-5 3-2
Chicago Bears 6-6 3-2
Green Bay Packers 5-7 3-1

Remaining Schedule:

Vikings-@ Detroit, @Arizona, Atlanta, NY Giants

Bears- Jacksonville, New Orleans, Green Bay, @ Houston

Packers- Houston, @ Jacksonville, @ Chicago, Detroit

Supposing the Vikings lose the Williams boys and manage to drop one and let us in to the discussion, assuming we win out here are the tie breaks for a two club tie:

1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in common games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss

 

To further confuse this if the Vikings lose twice and the Bears go 3-1 with a lose to GB and the Pack win out, here is the scenario for a 3-way tie:

1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in common games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss

  Note:  If this scenario plays out and the above tie breakers eliminate one team, the tie breakers revert to the two club scenario for the remaining clubs.

Looking at the schedule I don't see much sunshine and puppies for the Bears. New Orleans, Green Bay and Houston are all pass heavy teams and could bust us all over the field.   Jacksonville is the only game I currently am optimistic about.

The bonus for the Bears is the Vikings schedule even with the Williams' in is tough.  With the exception of Detroit the remaining three are teams that can beat them.  I'd say at worse they go 2-2.

I think the Packers can pack it in.  They need to win out to have any chance.  If they win out they need the Vikings to go 2-2 just to get into a tie break situation.  I don't see them going 4-0.

The Bears need to win out and have the Vikings go 2-2, so they can win this outright.  If this falls to tiebreaks, unfortunately they lose out.  The Vikings have a better record against common opponents.

 

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