Offseason Plans: NFL Draft

by Bear_Down on Dec 28, 2008 8:25 PM CST

Assuming San Diego holds on to beat Denver, here's the 20 teams that won't make the Playoffs. I didn't have Strength of Schedules handy, so I don't have EXACT draft order, but here are the tiebreakers for teams with similar records:

1) Ties are first broken using strength of schedule (average of all 16 opponent's winning percentage, divisionmates count twice since they were played twice). Worse strength of schedule picks earlier.

2) If the teams are in the same division, apply the division playoff tiebreakers (except the "loser" picks higher).

3) If the teams are in the same conference but not the same division, apply the conference playoff tiebreakers (except the "loser" picks higher).

4) If the teams are still tied, or are in different conferences, a coin toss decides the order.

Anyway, here's how it somewhat shapes up:

1. Lions -    0-16
2. Chiefs -   2-14
3. Rams -     2-14
4. Browns -   4-12
5. Seahawks- 4-12
6. Bengals - 4-11
7. Jaguars - 5-11
8. Raiders - 5-11
9. Packsers - 6-10
10. Bills    - 7-9
11. 49ers    - 7-9
12. Texans   - 8-8
13. Redskins - 8-8
14. Saints   - 8-8
15. Broncos - 8-8
16. Jets     - 9-7
17. Cowboys - 9-7
18. Bears    - 9-7
19. Bucs     - 9-7
20. Patriots - 11-5

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Comments

Are we ahead of the Cowboys? They would have won the tiebreaker in the Wild Card so does that put them lower? I’m not sure about the Jets, but it looks like that 16 spot would be the highest spot for us.

by Twins Territory on Dec 28, 2008 8:57 PM CST reply actions

Oh

and does that Cowboys pick belong to the Lions from the Roy Williams trade?

by Twins Territory on Dec 28, 2008 8:59 PM CST reply actions

Yes, The Cowboys' Pick Belongs To Detroit

And not knowing SOS #’s, we have a shot at 16-19.

by Bear_Down on Dec 28, 2008 9:01 PM CST reply actions

1. The winners of the Super Bowl are given the last selection, and the losers the second to last selection.
2. Remaining teams are sorted by regular season record, with worse records picking first, regardless of playoff status; teams that make the playoffs can’t pick before teams that do not.

by reprisal on Dec 28, 2008 9:15 PM CST reply actions

looks like 20

http://www.nfl.com/news/story?id=09000d5d809fbfa9&template=with-video&confirm=true

Unless SD makes the SB

by reprisal on Dec 28, 2008 9:17 PM CST up reply actions

--Torch

by torch on Dec 29, 2008 6:39 AM CST reply actions

Whoops

I forgot that the playoff bound 8-8 Chargers will be picking after us.
So that puts us at 17

--Torch

by torch on Dec 29, 2008 1:32 PM CST up reply actions

Nope

pretty sure 18 is correct
http://www.footballsfuture.com/2009/draftorder.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_NFL_Draft

http://sports.popcrunch.com/unofficial-2009-nfl-draft-order/

http://www.nowpublic.com/sports/2009-nfl-draft-order

by reprisal on Dec 29, 2008 1:57 PM CST up reply actions

It's 18...

..unless the Chargers make the Super Bowl. I don’t understand how a playoff team picks in front of other teams no matter what their record is.

by Twins Territory on Dec 29, 2008 8:28 PM CST up reply actions

Brad Biggs thinks...

…we’ll be at 16.

I don’t have this firmed up at this point, but my best guess, yes I said guess, is that the Bears will hold the 16th pick in the first round of the draft. They are tied with Dallas, the New York Jets and Tampa Bay as 9-7 clubs that failed to make the postseason.

The first tiebreaker is strength of schedule and the club with the weakest schedule goes first. Given that the Bears had two games with Detroit and one with St. Louis (that’s 2-46 right there), I’d have to think they’ll edge ahead of the others. Tampa was in the tough NFC South, Dallas was in the tough NFC East and the Jets were also in a competitive division. Stay tuned on this one.

by Twins Territory on Dec 29, 2008 10:38 AM CST reply actions