By the Numbers: Cutler & Orton
by SackMan on Oct 12, 2009 9:45 PM CDT
35 comments
Kyle Orton and the 5-0 Denver Broncos have everyone and their grandma talking about the Jay Cutler trade... and comparing the two QBs. Some of the commentary around the web and sports talk radio is quite a stunning over-reaction. There are the small collection of Bear fan-Orton supporters, who contend the Bears got it all wrong by trading away Orton. And, there are Broncos fans who, at the moment, do not miss Jay Cutler.
I just wanted to breakdown some numbers, and let you all draw your own conclusions.
In 38 career games, Kyle Orton is 26-12, with a career QB rating of 75.1, and a 56.5 COMP%
Orton (40 total TDs) averages 1 TD (passing and rushing) for every 26.95 pass attempts
Orton (32 total turnovers) averages 1 turnover (INT or fumble) for every 32.66 pass attempts
TD/Turnover ratio: Orton averages 1.25 TDs, per every turnover he makes
3.4% of Orton's pass attempts result in a passing TD
W-L in 2005 = 10-5 | Bears overall D ranking = #2
W-L in 2007 = 2-1 | Bears overall D ranking = #28
W-L in 2008 = 9-6 | Bears overall D ranking = #21
W-L in 2009 = 5-0 | Broncos overall D ranking = #6
Orton has 9 games in his career with a QB rating > 90
vs DET 2005 = 103.3
vs GB 2007 = 103.2
@ DET 2008 = 121.4
vs MIN 2008 = 114.5
@ HOU 2008 = 97.1
@ CIN 2009 = 100.7
@ OAK 2009 = 92.1
vs DAL 2009 = 117.5
vs NE 2009 = 96.7
Orton has 8 games in his career with a QB rating < 50
vs CIN 2005 = 14.7
@ NO 2005 = 43.3
vs SF 2005 = 42.8
vs GB 2005 = 23.7
vs ATL 2005 = 39.6
@ MIN 2008 = 39.1
vs NO 2008 = 49.2
vs GB 2008 = 48.7
In 41 career games, Jay Cutler is 20-21, with a career QB rating of 87.3, and a 62.6 COMP%
Cutler (66 total TDs) averages 1 TD (passing and rushing) for every 20.44 pass attempts
Cutler (47 total turnovers) averages 1 turnover (INT or fumble) for every 28.70 pass attempts
TD/Turnover ratio: Cutler averages 1.40 TDs, per every turnover he makes
4.6% of Cutler's pass attempts result in a passing TD
W-L in 2006 = 2-3 | Broncos overall D ranking = #14
W-L in 2007 = 7-9 | Broncos overall D ranking = #19
W-L in 2008 = 8-8 | Broncos overall D ranking = #29
W-L in 2009 = 3-1 | Bears overall D ranking = #7
Cutler has 21 games in his career with a QB rating > 90
@ SD 2006 = 97.6
@ ARI 2006 = 101.7
vs JAC 2007 = 96.6
vs PIT 2007 = 106.7
vs GB 2007 = 95.7
vs TEN 2007 = 137.0
@ CHI 2007 = 96.4
vs KC 2007 = 141.0
@ HOU 2007 = 95.5
vs MIN 2007 = 106.4
@ OAK 2008 = 137.5
vs SD 2008 = 109.6
vs NO 2008 = 93.3
vs TB 2008 = 96.1
@ CLE 2008 = 107.9
@ ATL 2008 = 106.4
@ NYJ 2008 = 94.8
vs KC 2008 = 102.7
vs PIT 2009 = 104.7
@ SEA 2009 = 126.4
vs DET 2009 = 100.4
Cutler has only 4 games in his career with a QB rating < 60* (On Orton's comparison, I went < 50)
@ OAK 2007 = 45.6
@ SD 2007 = 32.7
vs OAK 2008 = 49.8
@ GB 2009 = 43.2
0 recs |
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I don't need numbers when making the comparison.
Cutler is a better quarterback. You can say that Orton makes less mistakes, but I don’t want a dink and dunk QB who doesn’t lose games when I can have an all-world arm that can win any single game. He’s completed several passes that Orton wouldn’t even dare attempt. His passes to Kellen Davis against Pittsburgh and Greg Olsen against Seattle are just two examples. Orton has done well in Denver doing what is asked of him. He’s putting the ball where it needs to be in short-medium distances and letting his receivers do their thing, and it’s working for him, but he is not what is driving the Broncos attack. They have a very good offensive line, an explosive young tailback and several good wide receivers, and Orton has made the most of his opportunity. All that said, I think if Cutler is still in Denver, they’d be right there with the Colts as favorites to go the Super Bowl. With Orton, not so much.
Metal sharpens metal.
And this guy right here understands and knows what leadership is all about: The coach, the hall of famer......... Dick Butka! George Ryan
by dakoose on Oct 12, 2009 11:01 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
Cutler has flat-out taken over games for us in the 4th quarter this year. I saw something the other day that said his 4th quarter rating is something like 3rd in the NFL.
Neckbeard has played extremely well, too. But he’s clearly more of a game manager, as we were well aware of before we traded him. Denver definately has a better, younger offensive line in Denver – and that makes a huge difference. Cutler, by contrast, has had to “run for his life” at times… If Orton were still here, with our o-line, his numbers would not be the same.
by JimmyMack on Oct 12, 2009 11:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1...
The Bears would be 0-4 with Orton. Maybe 1-4 because no one loses to Detroit. Nonetheless, Orton could not lead 80+ yard drives without the deep and talented WR corps and top 5 O-line that he has now. IMO, Orton would be on IR right now if he were still a Bear. He is suited to the style of offense McDaniels runs which is the single biggest reason Cutler is a Bear and not a Redskin right now. Conversely, The Bears are one blown coverage from being undefeated this year with Cutler. I think this trade has worked out to be the best for both teams which is the situation every trade should end up in. Now the Bears need to get some talent through FA because the draft is not their forte! (pun intended)
There are no stupid questions, but there are a LOT of inquisitive idiots.
by LostInSTL on Oct 13, 2009 7:12 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed.
Cutler is easily the better Quarterback, but that doesn’t mean that Orton is bad either. He is a good game manager, but he won’t make the throws that Cutler can.
Now if we were talking about Grossman…. Its not even close.
Lifelong Arizona Cardinals/Chicago Bears fan.
No band-wagoner fans allowed, pick a team and stick with em, throughout the good and the bad.
by JoeCB1991 on Oct 13, 2009 8:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
let's not add fuel to the fire
KO played a nice game yesterday, was very accurate. But he rarely threw anything beyond 10 yards. The defensive gameplan was not a good one by the Pats, they gave him all day and rarely blitzed or put pressure on the broncos. I think teams like the Steelers and Ravens with their constant pressure will show a different side. A team that takes away the sort throws and makes them go downfield will present problems. But give KO credit, that mayhave been his finest game as a pro.
Roachy love the run stuffin', but don't forget about the TE over the middle!!
by tfrabotta on Oct 12, 2009 11:21 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Yep
I think we’ll see defenses playing up at the LOS much more against the Broncos. There’s really no reason to respect anything downfield because we all know Kyle can’t hit the broadside of a barn. The Pats gave that game away; if Brady was himself it would’ve been a blowout. He missed a wide open Moss and Welker for what would’ve been TD passes.
"Repetition is only good when you've been winning." - Valet
by propheteer on Oct 13, 2009 12:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Individual numbers really don't matter in this sport
as they are almost completely dependent on things like coaching, scheme and teammates.
In Steve Young’s two seasons in Tampa Bay, he had 11 TD’s and 21 INT’s.
In his first season in SF, he had 10 TD’s and 0 INT’s.
I really don’t think Young got all that much better after one offseason, or with the climate difference between the two cities.
Playing for a great SF team (and with guys like Jerry Rice and Bill Walsh) as opposed to playing for one of the worst franchises in the NFL (Tampa Bay) probably had the most to do with it.
As JimmyMack alluded to above, the key for a QB is how he plays in the 4th quarter. Does he make the big play (or big mistake) at the end of the game?
Can he carry a team on his back to win the game?
I have no idea what Ben Roethlisberger’s ‘numbers’ were in last years SB (nor do I care). All I know is on the last, gamewinning drive, he looked like a QB that knew he was going to deliver his team to the end zone.
He looked like SuperMan.
That’s really all that matters.
by GeoMak on Oct 12, 2009 11:48 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't like to use the Steve Young argument
He was a young QB thrown into the fire, and learning on the job. He could have also struggled on a team better than the woeful Bucs during his first games in the NFL. Peyton Manning went through his learning curve on a bad Colts team, and ditto for Troy Aikman on a bad Cowboys team.
When guys are rookies, you can’t expect consistent veteran-like performances. When you do get it (Marino, Big Ben) it’s rare.
Orton was thrown into the fire in ’05, and performed how you would expect a rookie to perform… even on a team with the #2 ranked D. Cutler finally got his opportunity at the end of his rookie season… and again, performed how you would expect a rookie to perform.
"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)
Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)
.
by SackMan on Oct 13, 2009 11:22 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You miss the point on Young.
His played improved at such a remarkable clip (from his first two seasons to those beyond) that one can only draw the same conclusion that I made (that the imporvement in team, coaching in scheme made such a big difference).
Yes guys like Manning and Aikman and Elway often struggle at first, and then soon thereafter get much better; ON THE SAME TEAM!
Jimmy Johnson built one the best teams ever in Dallas. Nobody does better drafting than BIll Polian in INDY.
Steve Young could’ve stayed in Tampa Bay forever. If he had, he never would have been anywhere near the great QB he became.
The Bucs were the dregs of NFL society in the nine years before Steve Young got there and in the nine years after he left. They only started to turn it around with the arrival of Tony Dungy in 1996.
by GeoMak on Oct 13, 2009 3:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Here's the thing I don't like about this comparison....
When Orton was here playing for the Bears, the offensive line was atrocious and no QB we had taking the snaps had time to get the ball off.(IE Rexy) The bears organization treated KO like a backup, even after he was named the starter. The bear’s playcalling was done to limit the passes and depend on our defense and special teams which wasn’t a bad idea, but it didn’t produce amazing statistical numbers for Kyle. Now, our O-Line is improved, but still sucks IMO. Jay doesn’t get enough time with our current O-line, but he has an uncanny ability to get rid of the ball. I have always been a big fan of Orton as I thought he was doing the best he could with what the Bears gave him, but comparing stats of Kyle and Jay is like comparing apples and oranges. They play for different teams and have different roles. Denver is actually allowing Kyle to throw the ball, and Chicago is putting their faith in Jay by letting him gun the ball all over. Let’s just be happy with what we have and be happy that Kyle is doing well in Denver.
by aznsensation on Oct 13, 2009 12:07 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Well said azn
I’m glad we have Cutler but I’m happy for Orton.
Now it’s up to the organization to surround Jay with the right talent and to use all of that talent correctly.
by GeoMak on Oct 13, 2009 12:22 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Amen
I’m very happy with Cutler, and I am also a fan of Orton’s and glad he’s getting a real chance. The Bears did treat him like a backup his entire career here. After last season I was looking forward to seeing what he could do going into camp as the #1 guy for the first time, but I like Cutler very much and the trade seems to have worked out for both teams. I don’t understand the grade school mentality of some fans who feel like the only way to show that Cutler is a good QB is to trash Orton and credit his success on everything but his own abilities. He’s been a winning QB at every level he’s played at. There comes a time when you can’t attribute that much success to luck.
GeoMak is absolutely right when he says that the team is what matters in this sport and no QB, including Cutler, will be successful, on a consistent basis, by himself. Throughout the history of the NFL, there have been QB’s with outstanding physical talent who haven’t been winners and QB’s with average (average at the pro level) physical skills who are in the Hall of Fame and it’s because they were on the right teams, with the right coaches, and the right attitudes. Those things will eventually be the factors that will decide how both Kyle and Jay are judged. There is no reason that they can’t both be successful.
by BearFan611 on Oct 13, 2009 7:29 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good post and i agree 100%
I realize this won’t be the last Orton/Cutler post but that sums it all up in a nutshell. I will always root for the Neckbeard (unless playing the bears) and i am glad we have Cutler.
by Chitownproduct on Oct 13, 2009 8:49 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Numbers are nice
but I need only look at the two QB’s play, Cutler is the better player…
I root for Orton, I think in a good system he’ll be good, just like he is now. I fully expected Orton to have a good year this year had he remained a Bear, he looked good last year all except for the games he played with that bad ankle.
But the StatGeek in me loves to see these numbers!!! Well done!
by Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. on Oct 13, 2009 8:53 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
A great numerical breakdown, but I prefer to think of the players in the context of the teams around them…
Honeslty, Orton’s best friends this year, in no particular order:
1. Brian Dawkins
2. Elvis Dumervil (sp?)
3. The entire o-line
4. Brandon Marshall, etc.
Orton has benefitted largely from the team around him playing at a superior level. He’s been good enough to get it done. But he has yet—to my knowledge—pick the team up on his back and single-handedly WILL them to victory.
Cutler, on the other hand, has ELEVATED the Bears on more than one occasion. He HAS done his part at key moments to lift the Bears.
As someone else said—all other things being equal—if Orton were at the helm of this team this season, we might very well be looking at 1-3 or 2-2, instead of 3-1.
by Amishbear on Oct 13, 2009 9:39 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Funny.
When anyone doubts Cutler or praises Orton, people here can’t wait to shut it down. Like I’ve said before: the deal was a win-win. In fact, both teams would be worse off right now if we hadn’t made the trade. I appreciate those of you how root for Orton and, while I don’t root for Cutler myself, plenty of our fans still do. It’s a weird position we’re in right now, but it’s safe to say we’re both happy with it right now…
"A player who conjugates a verb in the first person singular cannot be part of the squad, he has to conjugate the verb in the first person plural. We. We want to conquer. We are going to conquer. Using the word 'I' when you're in a group makes things complicated." ~ Wanderley Luxemburgo, 1999
by ejruiz on Oct 13, 2009 11:07 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Sure
I’m just tired of being heckled at bars rooting for the Bears. I used to root for the Broncos, but in good conscience I can’t cause of all the hoopla surrounding the trade. IMHO- Cutler would make the Broncos a SB favorite if he was still there. Like an above poster wrote- the Bears would most likely only have one win with Orton, and he would likely be injured.
"Repetition is only good when you've been winning." - Valet
by propheteer on Oct 13, 2009 12:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
fair comparison?
Orton’s playing with a far better offensive line over there than he ever had here, with far better receivers and now he’s playing consistently well
Jay Cutler’s a very good QB
Its possible that Kyle Orton is ALSO a very good QB when surrounded by the right parts.
I think in a vacuum Cutler’s better, but take into account value (per salary) and team situation (perhaps McDaniels was right he just needs a system QB) and maybe… its a good trade for both teams and we can all stop worrying about who won it
from my vantage point, we’re better. All that matters to me
I don’t care if the Broncos got better than we did, I don’t care if Orton is better than Cutler in Orton’s new situation. All that matters is we’ve gotten better
Best of luck to Kyle and the Broncos, hope the trade continues to be a good one for both teams
by DartmouthCubsFan on Oct 13, 2009 12:13 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I dont think Stats tell the story
But I think both teams are fortunate after the trade. What dose bug me though are Orton and Denver fans that try to make an argument that the Broncos got the better of the deal. Or that Orton wasn’t given a fair shot and allowed to throw the ball here. And now he’s proving his great passing skills. That’s ridiculous.
I actually give McDaniels a little credit. What he did for the Pats games was smart and done out of necessity. He looked at the tape and realized that this guy can’t make throws with any consistent accuracy outside of 15 yards. So what did he do? He did what the Bears did last year… he stripped the playbook. No Go routes, no Hitch and goes, no Fly patterns, nothing but screens and dig routes. Here you have Brandon Marshall, and Eddie Royal, and a QB with enough time to cook breakfast in the pocket and he never goes deep?? Turner did the same thing here. The difference is you have a better O-line and better playmakers at the WR position. It’s really that simple. Forte had the largest load for any RB in the league last year for a reason.
I believe that when teams realize that Orton won’t make them pay for the blitz, they’ll bring the heat. What the genius Belichek called themselves doing in that game defensively, I still don’t know. I’m happy for Orton and I’m even happier for us getting Cutler. But for people making the Bears out to be bad evaluators for trading Orton is nuts to me.
by Dils on Oct 13, 2009 3:45 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I believe that when teams realize that Orton won’t make them pay for the blitz, they’ll bring the heat.
orton was 13/17 when the patriots brought 5 or more guys
by lolcopter on Oct 13, 2009 5:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Im not sure that the Pats
Brought a blitz 17 times. They let Orton take what he was given in that game and that’s fine. There’s nothing wrong with that. Orton did the right thing and he played a good game. But teams adjust and teams will try to force Orton to make plays downfield. Only time will tell
by Dils on Oct 13, 2009 5:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not many teams are going to "plan"
to force Orton into throwing the ball downfield to Brandon Marshall. Whether his throws are accurate or not, Marshall is an exceptional talent who will go get the ball… and on many occasions take it right out of the hands from a defender (we’ve already seen it happen on a game winner this year).
"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)
Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)
.
by SackMan on Oct 13, 2009 6:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Those throws weren't downfield
I can see double-teams on Marshall, and manning up on Orton’s other options.
"Repetition is only good when you've been winning." - Valet
by propheteer on Oct 13, 2009 11:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
absolutely
bring the heat, press coverage and over the top help on Marshall. Make KO throwm over the top and see what happens.
Roachy love the run stuffin', but don't forget about the TE over the middle!!
by tfrabotta on Oct 14, 2009 9:22 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
with a dump off pass less than 10 yards
Pats didn’t play any press coverage on the blitzes so they gained nothing.
Roachy love the run stuffin', but don't forget about the TE over the middle!!
by tfrabotta on Oct 14, 2009 9:17 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is there any point in pointing out to you guys that Orton 10th in the league in passes over 20 yards (14) and 8th in passes over 40 yards (3)?
Didn’t think so.
"C" is for Championship...that's good enough for meeeee!!!
by PosterNutbag on Oct 14, 2009 8:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
brandon marshall will have more TDs from Orton this season
than he had from Cutler last season
has Jay had a 300 yard game yet?
by lolcopter on Oct 13, 2009 4:56 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Look...
Cutler’s closest game to 300 yards was against GB where he threw for 277 yards. We lost that game. So 300 yards means what exactly?? Kyle Orton just had probably the best game of his career so far OK. I think Cutler has only played in a handful of games more than Orton for his career and I’m sure you would agree that Cutler could throw for 300 yards in his sleep and I’m also sure you would agree that Cutler has had better games then Orton’s last game before…um…numerous times in his career. You guys are 5-0, we’re 3-1 and it should be fun to see how this thing ends up. (Hopefully with us both in the Superbowl and us winning of course:-)
by Dils on Oct 13, 2009 5:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sure
but Brandon is pretty money motivated right now, and basically has made spectacular plays to get into the endzone so far (his first one not being anything spectacular).
"Repetition is only good when you've been winning." - Valet
by propheteer on Oct 13, 2009 6:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Orton's on pace for
3,955 yards in 16 games this year with Marshall, Royal, Scheffler, and Stokley. He had 2,972 last year in Chicago with Hester, Olsen, Forte, R. Davis, and Clark.
Putting that in perspective, Cutler’s on pace for 3,604 this year as a Bear, with Hester, Olsen, Forte, Knox (rookie), and Bennett (2nd year). Cutler had 4,526 yards last year with Marshall, Royal, Scheffler, and Stokley.
"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)
Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)
.
by SackMan on Oct 13, 2009 6:28 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
Nice work.
Saved me the trouble.
Be nice. Flag comments that you think are offensive. Use the "reply" button. Drink plenty of water. Compliment others. Rec (wreck) comments and posts you like. Don't call people names. If you don't like someone's comment, attack the comment and not the commentor. Learn the difference in your/you're, then/than, to/too. Exercise. Relax. Stretch often. Find good in the world.
Just because it can be done on Madden NFL does not automatically make it a viable option in real life.
by Dane Noble on Oct 14, 2009 8:50 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
well it did take Orton 48 throws to get there
6.8 yrds per attempt. But he took what the defense gave him which was underneath throws all game and he was accurate with his throws. Poor defensive scheme by the Pats played to Ortons strengths. Bellicheat was outcoached…
Roachy love the run stuffin', but don't forget about the TE over the middle!!
by tfrabotta on Oct 14, 2009 9:20 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've updated the QB rating comparisons to show highlight their worst games.
The difference in incredible.
Cutler hasd more than twice as many games (21 to 9) of ratings > 90.
And, Cutler has half as many games (4 to 8) of ratings <50. (And Cutler’s number stayed the same when I bumped it up to < 60)
"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)
Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)
.
by SackMan on Oct 14, 2009 12:23 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
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