Offensive Line/RB Statistical Analysis
by MuleTrain on Oct 20, 2009 4:26 PM CDT
24 comments
I will attempt to do a little statistical analysis of the Bears running game so far to illustrate what we
are observing matches (or doesn't match) what the numbers/stats tell us. Numbers don't tell the whole story, but they can certainly teach us a lot about how our beloved Bears are performing...or under-performing.
All of the stats are taken from footballoutsiders.com. They have extensive descriptions about what their stats mean and how they get them. For individuals, DVOA, is defense-adjusted value over average, or simply put, what is the player's value on a per play basis. DYAR is defense-adjusted yards above replacement, or what is the total value over the course of an entire season.
Matt Forte is taking a lot of criticism, and he should. Out of the 34 running backs who have 50+ carries, he's ranked 33rd with a DYAR of -109 and ranked 32nd with a DVOA of -38.3%. Only Steve Slaton is worse, but he makes up for it by being number 1 in receiving for running backs, Forte is only 28th. Last season Forte ranked 38th as a runner, but was 2nd in receiving. He needs to step it up big time.
Forte certainly can't take all the blame for Chicago's running woes. Our Offensive Line has not been good. Rushing stats are used to come up with Adjusted Line Yards, a more detailed explanation of the stat can be read at footballoutsiders.com.
The Bears' O-Line is ranked 27th for Adjusted Line Yards. Our Power Success (runs on 3rd and 4th down with 2 yards or less for TD or 1st down) is 21st, and our Stuffed Rank (0yds or negative run plays) is a woeful 31st. We fare just a bit better in pass protection, by ranking 14th.
If we look at where the Bears are running the ball, we can start to point fingers (Omiyale getting a lot of heat).
The excerpt from the table is below, numbers are Adjusted Line Yards & then league Rank.
Rnk TM LEFT END LEFT TACKLE MID/GUARD RIGHT TACKLE RIGHT END
27 CHI 3.91 18 2.55 28 3.48 26 3.42 26 3.72 16
The Bears really struggle to run the ball between the tackles, especially the left side. Duh. We already knew that, but there's some proof.
Another point to make is how often the Bears are running between the tackles compared to the rest of the league:
Rnk Team RBCarries LEFTEND LEFTTACKLE MID/GUARD RIGHTTACKLE RIGHTEND
28 CHI 105 11% 13% 55% 9% 11%
x NFL x 11% 13% 51% 14% 11%
Well, the Bears like to run up the middle where they don't have success. Yeah, Ron Turner.
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Thanks, MuleTrain
For bringing some facts to the table, with all the emotions that have been running wild.
I was focusing more on the sack numbers.
Last season, Jay Cutler was sacked 11 times, and was sacked more than once in only 2 games. This season, behind the same (or very similar) OL, Kyle Orton has already been sacked 9 times – a projected 118% increase. Through 6 games last season, JC was sacked 5 times (an 80% increase for Kyle over the first 6 games).
Meanwhile, Jay has been sacked 10 times already this season, and he’s been sacked multiple times in every game. He’s on pace to be sacked 32 times this season, while Kyle was sacked 27 times all of last season.
By any measure, the Bears OL completely blows.
Chris Williams looks good. But Olin is getting old, and what happened to the Roberto Garza of a few years ago? I’ll hold out for a better Orlando Pace, as his pass-blocking looks good, but Frank Omiyale? What The Frank??? I’d put Josh Beekman in just to watch him fail at this point (not that I think he would, mind you.)
by Sweetness Lives On on Oct 20, 2009 7:07 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
age and out-of-position problems
williams is an LT playing RT…different skills at each position, which is part of his problem. omiyale is a tackle playing guard…again, problem with different skills. it was a good idea (since he’s huge), but it hasn’t worked out. pace, garza, and kreutz are playing okay, but they’re getting up there. so, yeah, not a great situation.
by guy incognito on Oct 20, 2009 9:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The pass protection isn't as bad as you lead on...
part of the reason for the increased number of sacks is the increased % of passing plays. Run blocking — particularly up the middle — is the team’s biggest single problem to date.
by shawndgoldman on Oct 21, 2009 3:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't let Jay Cutler fool you into thinking that our O-line is not terrible
the fine folks at Football outsiders dedicate time at the beginning of each book for debunking false cause due to good pass protection numbers. In a nutshell
1) Quarterbacks have more to do with whether they are sacked than the o-line. Said another way: Good quarterbacks don’t get sacked nearly as oftenso they make pass protection look good.
2) Run blocking however, is almost entirely the o-line (a good quarterback can maybe scare a few guys out of the box, but this has less of an effect than plain ol’ blocking in terms of run success)
Since our running is horrible, for an uninjured player who was pretty good (Forte), I’ll assume that run blocking sucks. And thus our o line. Rather than trying to run away (literally) from our problems I think we need to try and shake up the unit. I rewatched the entire Atlanta game twice (sick in bed) and only watched line play on both side of the ball, sometimes a frame at a time. Kruetz, Omiyale, and (yes, even) Pace are barely staying above water. We can’t fix all these problems at once, but at least trying to get Beekman in there and moving Williams to left side may help. This team has a chance to be really really good if the oline is shored up … next year :(
by Sound_Automatic on Oct 24, 2009 3:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
On the rare occasion that I see Forte taking a toss to run outside the tackles...
I jump for joy
"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)
Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)
.
by SackMan on Oct 20, 2009 7:13 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Kreutz and Omiyale are consistently getting stuffed on goal-line and short-yardage situations
That’s why Forte got nailed and gave up the 2 fumbles against Atlanta. Both of those plays were to the left side of the line…
by JimmyMack on Oct 21, 2009 11:56 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The line is not the reason Forte fumbled, Forte is the reason Forte fumbled
by brands735 on Oct 22, 2009 10:18 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
He’s normally good at protecting the ball, as was observed last season. On the second run where he fumbled and lost the ball, my memory is that he was hit by three defenders – I saw a photo of that play somewhere earlier today where there were 5 Falcons players on top of him, to the left and behind the gainline, without any blockers in shot. I’m far from being an expert but that doesn’t seem to me to be a good sign for a running game,
"The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt." - Bertrand Russell
"F*** everybody outside of Halas Hall. BEARDOWN" - WavyGravy
by Spongie on Oct 22, 2009 11:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
How many times did he fumble last year?
And then he fumbles twice in one series? And both plays were behind the left-middle side of the line…
by JimmyMack on Oct 23, 2009 3:18 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
So what?!?
It’s not as if our linemen were carrying the ball for him. He dropped it, whether in open space or being brought down behind the line by all eleven defensemen.
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"Newbie, if the next two words out of your mouth aren't 'See ya' then the third word will be 'Oh my god. My crotch. You've punched me in my crotch." - Dr. Percival Ulysses Cox
by smudgers on Oct 23, 2009 7:57 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ah, so a player who’s held up by a swarm-tackle – and then a helmet coming in and knocking the ball out when he’s being hung out to dry by his blockers – is the same as one who’s waving it about in one hand. I get ya.
"The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt." - Bertrand Russell
"F*** everybody outside of Halas Hall. BEARDOWN" - WavyGravy
by Spongie on Oct 23, 2009 6:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
What?
That’s a ridiculous comparison. Yes, Forte has proved his worth in the past at holding onto the ball, but he fumbled. It’s not the first time he’s ever been swarmed tackled. And whether it’s five yards behind the line or ten yards down field, the same thing could have happened. Who’s fault would it have been then?
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"Newbie, if the next two words out of your mouth aren't 'See ya' then the third word will be 'Oh my god. My crotch. You've punched me in my crotch." - Dr. Percival Ulysses Cox
by smudgers on Oct 23, 2009 10:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I disagree with your point, and you’re either failing to see mine or you’re ignoring it.
"The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt." - Bertrand Russell
"F*** everybody outside of Halas Hall. BEARDOWN" - WavyGravy
by Spongie on Oct 24, 2009 12:58 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nah.
I see what you’re saying. I guess I just disagree as well. It’s cool.
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"Newbie, if the next two words out of your mouth aren't 'See ya' then the third word will be 'Oh my god. My crotch. You've punched me in my crotch." - Dr. Percival Ulysses Cox
by smudgers on Oct 24, 2009 8:26 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for the stats ...
… but numbers are never required to spot a line of revolving doors .. the disappearance of our running game combined with sight of Cutler running for his life after every snap on a pass play kind of gives it away.
by Irish Bears Fan on Oct 20, 2009 11:49 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I almost wrote something up on this...
The other thing to note is a high percentage of the Bears’ rushing yards come more then 10 yards downfield. This is usually attributed to the talent of the running back. Based on these data, I would suggest that Forte is not the problem; the interior of the line is what needs to be fixed.
by shawndgoldman on Oct 21, 2009 3:55 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for explaining
what DVOA and DYAR mean. People have used these before, and being the not-as-experienced-football-fan, I’ve been clueless. I know it wasn’t the major point of your post, but thanks nonetheless!
"A lot of fans were drawn to me because they knew that whatever the score was, I was going to run as hard as I could on every play. You don't have that now, you have guys waiting for next week or even next year." - Walter Payton
by HoneyBear on Oct 22, 2009 6:15 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
To add
I was hoping someone could tell me what a DVDA is…
by rdent4hof on Oct 23, 2009 7:56 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
rdent...
Replied to you, but with a big reply LIAF - (see below for the answers to all you questions)
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"Newbie, if the next two words out of your mouth aren't 'See ya' then the third word will be 'Oh my god. My crotch. You've punched me in my crotch." - Dr. Percival Ulysses Cox
by smudgers on Oct 23, 2009 8:16 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll expand a little further with an example:
2008 RB data link. DYAR is a better stat when looking at the full 16-game schedule than just 5/6 games played this year.
Michael Turner had a very high DYAR = 203 for 6th overall. His DVOA = 4.1% was 19th overall.
His value over the whole season is very high, yet per play, not so high. He grinds you down making positive yardage, but isn’t the most explosive guy. His value over the whole season was great. His value (statistically speaking) on a per play basis is good, not great. He was used so much last year, that all those good plays add up to great overall production.
On the flip side, Darren Sproles had a very high DVOA = 17.8%. This would be good for 4th overall if he had the requisite carries. On a per play basis, he’s a very good to great back. However, his DYAR = 64, which means his total contribution to SD’s running success would have qualified him for 27th overall if he had the number of carries. Part of his charm is that he isn’t used all the time. He’s a little guy not suited to be an every-down back; and as we’ve seen this year, when he’s the main back he doesn’t perform all that great.
The stats confirm what we know about these 2 backs. Turner’s production is great over a whole season, but he wasn’t as explosive as some other backs. He’s used so much though, that he piles up the yards and TD’s. Sproles, on the other hand, is explosive, but since he isn’t used as much, he doesn’t contribute the total amount of production as an every-down back would.
At least that’s how I see it.
by MuleTrain on Oct 23, 2009 8:11 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I did some research for you...
I’m gonna let you make your own choice out of the definitions though… LINK’ers
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"Newbie, if the next two words out of your mouth aren't 'See ya' then the third word will be 'Oh my god. My crotch. You've punched me in my crotch." - Dr. Percival Ulysses Cox
by smudgers on Oct 23, 2009 8:01 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
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