26 Head Coaches
by GeoMak on Oct 31, 2009 10:30 PM CDT
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PrintHave won the Super Bowl (12 of them have won it multiple times).
Someone here at WCG brought up the other day how long it usually took to win the Lombardi Trophy.
Here is the breakdown:
Lombardi: 8 years (Though that's inaccurate. He won the NFL Championship in his 3rd season. The SB wasn't invented until his eighth).
Ewbank: 6 Stram: 10 McCafferty: 1 Landry: 12 Shula: 3 Noll: 6 Madden: 8
If you count Lombardi as winning it all in his third season, you have an average of 6.12 seasons before these guys won it all.
The next group would start with the Bill Walsh era, 30 years ago.
Walsh: 3 Flores: 2 Ditka: 4 Parcells: 4 Gibbs: 2 Seifert: 1 Johnson: 4 Switzer: 2 Holmgren: 5
Shanahan: 3 Vermeil: 3 Billick: 2 Belichick: 2 Gruden: 1 Cowher: 14 Dungy: 5 Coughlin: 4 Tomlin: 2
I would toss out these four (Flores, Seifert, Switzer and Tomlin) as they had just taken over teams that had recently won the SB. I would also toss out Cowher because he is an anomaly. His 14 seasons was as much a function of the patience of the Rooney's as anything else.
You are left with the other 13 HC's averaging 3.23 seasons to win it all. If you include the five I just omitted you are left with 18 coaches averaging 3.5 season to win it all.
Lovie Smith is currently in his sixth season as HC of the Chicago Bears. Since the days of Bill Walsh, no HC has taken that long to win the Super Bowl, with the exception of Bill Cowher.
Lovie better hope that he wins it all real soon or that the McCaskey's have the patience of the Rooney's.
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winning coaches
pre superbowl. how many coaches won championships? in how many seasons? and would lovie still be in charge if halas ran the team?
There is a factor that is missing from this breakdown
Free Agency. Things changed dramatically in the ability to transform teams with the advent of free agency. Now teams can go from a terrible, last place group into a pretty formidable playoff contender in one season. Before that was a realistic option, teams stayed the same and dynasties were built (Packers, Raiders, Steelers, etc.) because the core players had virtually no chance of moving to another team. It also worked in reverse, because the only way to change your team was through the draft, unless something very unusual happened, the bad teams stayed bad for a long time as well. So comparisions from the Free Agency era vs. the pre-FA time, in my opinion would never be accurate.
Free Agency works both ways
A team gains & loses players.
I don’t see any difference in the numbers.
These HC’s were all before FA:
Walsh: 3 Flores: 2 Ditka: 4 Parcells: 4 Gibbs: 2 Seifert: 1 Johnson: 4 Switzer: 2 .
These after:
Holmgren: 5 Shanahan: 3 Vermeil: 3 Billick: 2 Belichick: 2 Gruden: 1 Cowher: 14 Dungy: 5 Coughlin: 4 Tomlin: 2
I don’t see any big difference there.
You've brought this up before in the offseason.
I already knew what this FP was about before i even looked.
SLACKER!
Camp ifuwanna, we hold you in our heart...
Dude
I never brought this up before (at least not with this kind of detail) as I had never fully crunched the numbers until last evening.
As I clearly stated someone else here briefly touched on the subject the other day (and incorrectly had Ditka at 3 years), so I thought I would render the final, complete verdict on the subject, for those who might care.
Your pathetic attempts to criticize me are just that: Pathetic.
Where Is A Vikings Head Coach On This List?
by Gesiakob on Nov 1, 2009 11:14 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
yeah, I thought the Vikings were the greatest team in the history of mankind
whose unparalleled successes cannot be counted or matched.
If you talk to a Vikings fan, they have more wins and championships than the Packers and Bears combined.
Just more fuel to my “Eternally Hate the Vikings” fire.
What kind of history are you re-writing here?
For starters:
Dungy didnt win a SB until his 11th season as a HC, on his 2nd team
Belichick didn’t win a SB until his 7th season as a HC, on his 2nd team
Shanahan didn’t win a SB until his 5th season as a HC, on his 2nd team
Coughlin didn’t win a SB until his 12th season as a HC, on his 2nd team
Gruden didn’t win a SB until his 5th season as a HC, on his 2nd team
Vemeil didn’t win a SB until his 10th season as a HC, 23 years after his 1st HC job, on his 2nd team.
Whatever “rule” you’re trying to create doesn’t exist.
I’m not gonna even bother looking as
"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)
Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)
.
so...
we need to fire lovie, so he can win a SB w/ his new team, and hire someone’s hc that hasnt head coached for anyone else so we can win the sb?
by GtM on Nov 1, 2009 8:23 PM CST up reply actions
So . . . you don't have to do either
Just look at the history. In 30 years, NO HC has taken longer than 5 seasons (with the one exception of Bill Cowher).
That’s all. ‘It is what it is.’
Shhesh. Some of you people make me laugh. Really.
I was just tryin
to be difficult with sackman.. i’m not arguin with ya geo. lovie’s shot was in 06. he missed, we continued to give him a shot and he is still missing. like your post says unless he gets the cowher treatment (which lebaeu is the main reason there for sucess) lovie isnt going to take us anywhere and even then its not certain. look at philly and andy reid. he got them to a sb, lost, and the fall short all the time now (even with jim johnson {rip} being the main reason for sucess)
by GtM on Nov 1, 2009 8:54 PM CST up reply actions
Pretty much right GtM
He had his shot in 2006.
It really is kind of eye opening, that list. These guys get to a team and either win it all in a few years, or are gone.
The history doesn’t look good for Lovie here.
You obviously aren't paying attention.
I am talking about when a HC takes over a particular team, not his overall length in coaching.
It’s clear from the list, for example that after Ditka took over the Bears, he won it in4 seasons. Vermeil 3. And so on.
I am talking about the nexus between the new HC and winning the Super Bowl.
If you look at the list, you will see that starting with the Bill Walsh era, ALL of those HC’s (with the one exception of Bill Cowher) won it all within five seasons, usually less.
It has nothing to do with their past coaching experience. Just how long it took them to finally win it with the team that they won it with.
Pay Attention!
Pay attention?
I did pay attention.
And… a whole boatload of the coaches you listed didn’t win a SB when they took over a “particular” team. So your whole “study” has no merit to it.
It’s like revising history and saying the Bears are undefeated this year, because you decided to omit their losses from the schedule.
"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)
Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)
.
Oh God
And… a whole boatload of the coaches you listed didn’t win a SB when they took over a "particular" team. So your whole "study" has no merit to it.
Are you serious? EVERY coach I listed WON the SB when they took over a ‘particular team’ (I didn’t feel the need to list their teams – most KNOWLEDGABLE fans know that Noll won with Pittsburgh, Walsh the 49ers, Ditka the Bears, etc).
And it’s not my ‘study’ (LOL) it’s a LIST of all the Super Bowl winning coaches and HOW LONG it took them to WIN the Super Bowl with the team they won it with.
Again, why is this so difficult for you to understand?
Actually, it’s pretty simple.
What the data tells most normal people is that if a HC hasn’t won the SB in his first five seasons with his team, he most likely won’t win it with that team.
You’re funny.
Dungy didn’t win a SB when he took over Tampa.
Belichick didn’t win a SB when he took over Cleveland
Shanahan didn’t win a SB when he took over Oakland
Coughlin didn’t win a SB when he took over Jacksonville
Gruden didn’t win a SB when he took over Oakland
Vemeil didn’t win a SB when he took over Philly
All of those coaches had to wait until their second HC stint to win a SB. It took them a LONG time to win a SB, and you’re omitting their previous failures from the data.
What the data tells most normal people is that if a HC hasn’t won the SB in his first five seasons with his team, he most likely won’t win it with that team.
Again.. thanks captain obvious. So, if a guy doesn’t accomplish his job, he’ll likely lose his job within 5 years, and hope he’ll be given another opportunity with a different employer. What amazing wisdom. If you fail to achieve your goals at your job year after year… chances are you’ll be fired too. I can’t believe I’m wasting my time with this.
Again.. thanks captain obvious. So, if a guy doesn’t accomplish his job, he’ll likely lose his job within 5 years, and hope he’ll be given another opportunity with a different employer. What amazing wisdom. If you fail to achieve your goals at your job year after year… chances are you’ll be fired too. I can’t believe I’m wasting my time with this.Good coaches are good coaches… and put in an opportunisitic situation, they’ll win. But, sometimes your employer doesn’t give you you what you need to win.
"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)
Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)
.
No I am not omitting previous failures SackMan
You just don’t seem to understand.
I was NOT (repeat NOT) doing some kind of exhaustive, comprehensive analysis of evey coach, his experience, how many teams he may have coached before winning the SB, etc.
I was SIMPLY (notice the word SIMPLY) stating how long it took them to win the Super Bowl . . . with the TEAM they won the SB with.
That’s all, son. No MORE, no LESS.
Here let me help you out (again). Jon Gruden won the SB his first year in TB. Jimmy Johnson in his fourth in Dallas. Does that mean I think that Gruden is a better HC than JJ, cause he won it so much faster?
Not at all. He took over a much better team than did JJ.
See, we can debate stuff like that all day long.
That’s NOT what my post was about.
It was simply a list of the HC’s who won the SB and how long it took for them to win it there.
That’s all.
SackMan
Whatever "rule" you’re trying to create doesn’t exist.
Umm, that’s your first mistake son. It’s not a ‘rule,’ it’s an observation. Big difference.
Again (try to follow) all it ‘shows’ is that when a new HC takes over a team (say Josh McDaniels in Denver) 30 years of history strongly suggest that if he hasn’t won the SB by at least year five there, he almost certainly won’t win it there.
That’s all.
I’m sorry that this is so confusing for you. Perhaps you can get someone else to explain it to you.
Wow... wait to go out on a limb there.
Again (try to follow) all it ‘shows’ is that when a new HC takes over a team (say Josh McDaniels in Denver) 30 years of history strongly suggest that if he hasn’t won the SB by at least year five there, he almost certainly won’t win it there.
So, let me get this straight…. if a guy gets hired to do a job (win the Super Bowl), and doesn’t accomplish that goal within 5 years… chances are he’ll lose his job. Wow, way to go there captain obvious. Ground breaking information there. Keep up the brilliant work.
"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)
Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)
.
No that's YOUR limb
I didn’t say anything about losing his job. You are confusing things here (what a shock).
I simply said (try to follow here SackMan) that IF (notice the word IF) a HC is going to win the Super Bowl, he will almmost certainly accomplish that feat within his first five years on the job (actually, the average is closer to four years), if we use 30 years of history as our guide.
That’s all. It’s actually very simple. Except for some people.
You kill me.
Keep arguing this to death. All you keep showing me is that you simply can’t understand simple logic.
SackMan
Didn’t you get he memo, geo is a genius. Any disagreeing with him is not allowed.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Nov 2, 2009 11:12 AM CST up reply actions
and will be dealt with Promptly
Camp ifuwanna, we hold you in our heart...
by ifuwannacrownem on Nov 2, 2009 4:30 PM CST up reply actions
Here, let me help you out this way Sack Man
I really want you to understand the point I was trying to make.
You seem to struggle with it, so let me try another way. It’s no problem. I have a six year old and I’m used to occasionally having to go real slow in order for her to understand. Not often, but sometimes.
“In the past 30 years, 17 out of the 18 HC’s that won the SB, won it by the end of their fifth season.”
See? Do you understand it now? (God, I sure hope so).
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