Preview: Bears (3-1) BYE WEEK
by SackMan on Oct 9, 2009 9:00 AM CDT
in Game Preview
27 comments
The Bears will be sitting on their couches, and checking their fantasy teams like the rest us this Sunday. Although, that shouldn't be anything new for Juaquin Iglesias. So, while we're on the bye, let's:
1. Recap last week
2. Look at some key numbers
3. Talk about wide receivers, and
4. Take a look at the division
Week 4 Recap
The Bears completed Lovie Smith’s 1st quarter of the season with a convincing 48-24 victory at home over the Detroit Lions. It was a tale of two halves. The Lions came into Soldier Field on a high note, after winning for the first time in their last 20 games, and picked up were they left off in the first half. Rookie QB Matthew Stafford looked pretty sharp picking away at the Bears soft secondary, but Jay Cutler answered him, and the first half ended in a 21-21 tie. The game shifted on Johnny Knox’s TD return to open the second half, and the Bears pulled away to a large margin of victory.
Among the positives of the game were Matt Forte’s two big runs (61 and 37T), as the running game had not made much impact in the first 3 weeks of the season. On the flip side, the Bears still struggled in pass coverage, and saw many of their blitzes get stonewalled once again. They’ll have the bye week to remedy some of the problems and get healthy for a trip to Atlanta on Sunday Night Football next week.
By the numbers:
14.0: The Bears current sack total, ranking them 3rd in the league behind the Vikings (16.0) and Broncos (15.0). Last season the Bears finished with just 28 sacks. In four games this year, they’ve already reached half that total. Adewale Ogunleye leads the Bears with 4.5, and only 4 of the sacks were recorded by non lineman (Manning, Briggs, Roach, and Afalava).
104.7, 126.4, & 100.4: Jay Cutler’s QB rating in each of the last 3 weeks. The last Chicago Bear QB to have a rating over 100 in 3 consecutive weeks was Jack Concannon in 1970.
3.8: The Bears current team rushing average per carry, a point down from last year’s final average of 3.9.
News around the league (six degrees of separation from Juaquin Iglesias).
This weeks NFL headliners were both WR related. 1st round pick Michael Crabtree finally signed a contract with the 49ers. It’s hard to say if Crabtree will have any significant impact for the 49ers this year, after such a late start. The other big news: the Cleveland Browns traded Braylon Edwards to the New York Jets.for special teams player Jason Trusnik, WR Chansi Stuckey and a pair of draft picks.
Edwards caused some problems in a Cleveland night club this weekend, punching Lebron James' friend... and that seems to be his plane ticket out of town (who knew the King really is the King of Cleveland?). However, last Sunday Derek Anderson threw the ball to rookie WR Mohamed Massaquoi a whopping 13 times, finishing with 8 catches for 148 yards. With Edwards now out of the picture, Massaquoi is now the Browns default #1 WR.
Massaquoi was one of the names that draft experts were linking to the Bears last April. However, with Massaquoi off the board and unable to work a deal with Arizona for Anquan Boldin, the Bears traded out of the 2nd round entirely, and eventually selected Oklahoma WR Juaquin Iglesias (pick #99) in the 3rd round.
Fellow rookie WRs like Massaquoi (CLE pick #50), Percy Harvin (MIN pick #22), Kenny Britt (TEN pick #30), Mike Wallace (PIT pick #84), Louis Murphy (OAK pick #124), and Johnny Knox (CHI pick #140) are all having immediate impacts on their teams. However, Iglesias hasn't even been activated on a game day yet, and has been absolutely buried on the depth chart below Rashied Davis and former practice squadder Devin Aromashodu. This is not exactly a good indicator for the future.
I normally would give a rookie WR more leeway, especially since trends in the NFL lean towards the "magical 3rd year." Heck, last year we saw Earl Bennett be a total non factor, while he got acclimated to the league. However, the Bears, Titans, and Jaguars presented perhaps the easiest opportunity you'll ever see for a rookie WR to earn playing time in this league. Just ask Johnny Knox, Kenny Britt, and second year man Mike Sims-Walker. But, thus far... Iglesias has completely dropped the ball… literally.
Side notes from the NFC North:
So far the Vikings haven’t allowed a rushing TD yet*… only the 49ers can share that honor. However, the Vikings are allowing 3.7 yards per carry and 89.5 yards per game this year (vs the Browns, Lions, 49ers, and Packers). While those numbers are very nice, it’s up from 3.3 and 76.9 last year. Expect those numbers to increase when they face the Ravens and Steelers in back to back weeks (6 & 7).
The Packers offensive line continues to get thrashed, allowing 20 sacks in 4 games. At this rate, Aaron Rodgers might not survive the season in one piece. The bye week couldn’t come at a better time, and I’m sure Rodgers will spend much of it in a hot tub.
Matthew Stafford update*: After a horrendous start for the Lions in his 1st two games (1 TD to 5 INTs and a QB rating of 40.5), the #1 pick has turned the corner with a win vs
*I’ve been forecasting that the Vikings days of dominant run D are nearing an end, mainly due to Pat Williams turning 37 years old.
*I'll keep tabs on Matthew Stafford all season, as I eventually try to draw a comparison to Troy Aikman, who started every game for the 1-15 Cowboys in 1989, after also being the #1 pick in the draft.
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I guess it's "encouraging" to see that the Vikings' run D is not quite as dominant as it was last year
I remember them stuffing our run on that Sunday night disaster in MN last year, and then forcing KO into those picks. Jared Allen had a big night against us, with 2 sacks if I remember. That game was a turning point – it seemed like Orton wasn’t the same QB after that.
If we’re gonna have a chance against them this year, we’ll probably have to run the ball a little bit better to slow Allen’s pass rush and keep them out of rhythm, defensively.
by JimmyMack on Oct 9, 2009 9:26 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Williams
If, and I stress if, the Williams Wall were indeed using a banned substance as a masking agent for ‘roids, then maybe that would explain why the Vikings run D is not as dominant as last year. Maybe they aren’t gooned on the juice, presuming they were before.
"Chance favors the prepared mind." - Pasteur
by Maelvampyre on Oct 9, 2009 11:20 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jauqueen
It’s disappointing to yet another one of our “higher draft picks” still not get on the field or even dress…looks like the pool jumper was in uniform during the lions game…not sure if I saw him during clean up time in the 4th though…
by Sonicbob on Oct 9, 2009 9:51 AM CDT via mobile reply actions 0 recs
Give them both
2-3 years before judging them. There’s really no room for Gilbert right now, and it’s not hurting up that Iglesias is not active. Although, it would’ve been nice to take a FS with the pick instead.
"Repetition is only good when you've been winning." - Valet
by propheteer on Oct 9, 2009 11:30 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The small handful of decent FS prospects were already gone
The Lions took Louis Delmas with the 1st pick in the 2nd round, and the Patriots took FS/SS Patrick Chung with the next pick. The rest of them basically all came off the board in the 2nd round. And then Rashad Johnson (Cardinals) went 4 picks before Iglesias in the 3rd.
"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)
Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)
.
by SackMan on Oct 9, 2009 11:40 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's right
I couldn’t remember if Johnson was gone or not.
"Repetition is only good when you've been winning." - Valet
by propheteer on Oct 9, 2009 12:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
UGH!
I wanted Rashad on this team SO bad!
"The phone's for you, I think it's the Devil."
by Acreman20 on Oct 9, 2009 2:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
i liked Chung
coming into the draft… but i really like Taylor Mays this year… but thats a crapshoot
"I'm sorry Josh, I'm with Chicago now, you need to stop calling me" -JerBear50 as Jay Cutler
by BearNecessities on Oct 9, 2009 3:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
We're not gonna have the draft pick to select Mays.
"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)
Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)
.
by SackMan on Oct 9, 2009 3:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
i know
i was just thinking “it’d be nice if…”
"I'm sorry Josh, I'm with Chicago now, you need to stop calling me" -JerBear50 as Jay Cutler
by BearNecessities on Oct 9, 2009 3:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It sure would...
"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)
Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)
.
by SackMan on Oct 9, 2009 4:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You and me both
Would’ve had a chance to fill a hole in the team, since we’re still light on genuine FSies.
"The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt." - Bertrand Russell
"F*** everybody outside of Halas Hall. BEARDOWN" - WavyGravy
by Spongie on Oct 12, 2009 4:12 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
More Blitzing
The Bears are blitzing more this year, I recall reading elsewhere.
"Chance favors the prepared mind." - Pasteur
by Maelvampyre on Oct 9, 2009 11:18 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Lovie is making the calls
Second half adjustments are happening on the Bears for the first time since 2005. The experiments of Rivera and Babich are thankfully over.
by SC Dave on Oct 9, 2009 12:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fun fact.
Iglesias went to the same college (Oklahoma), and is listed as having the same birthplace (Killeen, Texas), as Tommie Harris. Yeah, I know, it’s a coincidence.
But on an entirely unrelated note, take a gander at Brett Favre’s rating in December as compared to his rating in all prior regular season games.
2008: 53.3 (89.8)
2007: 85.5 (97.9)
2006: 62.2 (78.1)
2005: 49.6 (79.3)
2004: 78.6 (95.2)
This trend bears watching as the Vikings head down the stretch, especially since their first game with Chicago occurs on the last week of November and their second is well into December.
by V. Money on Oct 9, 2009 6:19 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
i'm really looking forward to that monday night game in december
hope it’s a division decider w/a bears win 147 to -10
by reefermadness3 on Oct 9, 2009 10:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I just bought tickets to that game
Hope it brings the same luck as it did when I went to last years Monday Night game!!! Gotta love them birthdays!
Phil: " Whose baby is that?
Alan: "Check his collar or something." - The Hangover
by ANYTIME09 on Oct 10, 2009 1:44 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
But that's not all.
Take a look at the following trend:
2008: -36.5 difference in ratings, 30 sacks on the year
2007: -12.4, 15
2006: -15.9, 21
2005: -29.7, 24
2004: -16.6, 12
No real surprises there, either. So far, Favre is on pace to get sacked 36 times in the season, although the line has been doing a better job of protecting him recently.
The signs don’t look good for Minnesota down the road.
by V. Money on Oct 10, 2009 4:26 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dig around Smacker world and you'll get lots of stuff like that
There are W/L correlations for cold weather. He also doesn’t play well in domes. Remember that one?
What would make your conjecture more valuable would be to compare it against league norms. Check for imbalances in number of home and away games. Consider or eliminate effects of games with little consequence like the ’07 late season wind bowl against Kyle Orton.
Injuries to key players like receivers and linemen probably make a difference and of course, considering how well he did with a torn biceps tendon to estimate future performance is folly.
That’s just for starters.
by Salty on Oct 10, 2009 9:26 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, here's a start...
…let’s go back a few more seasons,
2003: 111.9 (83.3)
2002: 74.9 (90.4)
2001: 90.9 (94.2)
2000: 76.3 (78.6)
Career: 82.3 (87.9)
If we look at Favre’s entire career, there is a gap, but it isn’t that noticeable. It certainly isn’t as big as, say, Tony Romo’s. However, if we look at the last five years in particular, the gap has widened. Looking at the worst one by far (the Jets season), he had a bum shoulder and he was in the first season of an entirely new offense anyway.
But even then, something has happened over the other four seasons that has made the gap wider than normal, even though he was playing for the same team, with many of the same guys, and in many of the same conditions.
And even if we throw out the numbers altogether and look at intangibles entirely, the fact of the matter is, he won’t be facing the Packers for most of November and all of December. Considering his behavior surrounding his departure from the organization (Wanting to be cut afterword so he could sign with Minnesota, the allegation that he divulged plays against the Lions, etc.), how motivated do you think he’ll really be when the calender reads Nov. 2?
And if we look at the last five years/80 games (Which I personally feel is a good-sized chunk to do analysis), you can draw your own conclusions, and I’ll draw mine. I feel strongly that the combination of age and attitude will eventually be Favre’s undoing as a Viking, and looking at it from a more general perspective, the more pressure a quarterback feels from a pass rush, the more likely he is to commit errors.
by V. Money on Oct 10, 2009 11:08 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're buying the story line
that he isn’t that into playing football and his motivation is dominated by a thirst for revenge. If you want to judge attitude, you can look at any game, any year if you ask me. The idea that his attitude will be a negative factor seems crazy.
Like I said, there may be a league wide trend, a home/away factor, a competition position effect, and there are a lot of injury factors, the most significant of which is a torn biceps tendon.
You’re also putting a lot of weight into a poor statistic. QB rating just doesn’t do all that great a job. I don’t think he’ll play poorly for the Vikings because Mike Sherman liked to have him throw 50 yards down the field on 3rd and long rather than punt and a lot of those turned into interceptions. Insert one of dozens of other weaknesses in QB rating if you like.
p.s. The fake story by Glazer from the Packers was routinely laughed at by coaches and players. The Wisconsin media called and asked everyone they could and I heard at least a dozen say that it was conceptually impossible. The only one who supported the idea are ex-Packers fat Gary Ellerson and the safety who works at the same radio station. Favre didn’t have a playbook to give them and the Lions had more information on tendencies and plays than Favre did.
by Salty on Oct 10, 2009 12:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You do have some viable points.
But at the end of the day, the one way we’ll really know if revenge plays a key factor in it is by watching him after the second Green Bay game. If he plays well and the whole vengeance thing is secondary, good for him. I’m concerned because the behavior I’ve seen from him strongly suggests that revenge is a huge factor.
Just for laughs, I’m putting in the other, more elementary stats from the last five years. If QB rating is a poor indicator, maybe, just maybe, the numbers it crunches to get it, by themselves, aren’t so much.
2008:
Before December: 68.7% completion, 6.9 YPA, 20 TD, 14 INT
December: 56.8% completion, 5.8 YPA, 2 TD, 8 INT
2007:
Before December: 67.4% completion, 7.7 YPA, 22 TD, 10 INT
December: 62.5% completion, 7.7 YPA, 6 TD, 5 INT
2006:
Before December: 57.1% completion, 6.5 YPA, 14 TD, 10 INT
December: 53.8% completion, 6.0 YPA, 4 TD, 8 INT
2005:
Before December: 63.6% completion, 6.8 YPA, 19 TD, 19 INT
December: 56.8% completion, 5.4 YPA, 0 TD, 9 INT
2004:
Before December: 65.1% completion, 7.6 YPA, 22 TD, 11 INT
December: 61.2% completion, 6.9 YPA, 6 TD, 6 INT
by V. Money on Oct 10, 2009 1:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
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