Is Cutler a Difference Maker?- Comparison to QB Greats
Myself, SackMan, and T.Moore got into what I thought was a great debate on Cutler. Unfortunately its buried on an old game thread, so I thought I'd summarize and continue it in a fresh FanPost so everyone else can comment also.
Almost everyone on WCG has lost faith in some aspect of the coaching staff and agrees that our offensive line could use some upgrading. But some on the site feel that Cutler was NOT as good as advertised, and is not a franchise QB, the difference maker we all hoped he would be. He doens't make the right decisions on the field, and the 'miscommunication' problem between himself and the receivers falls squarely on his shoulders. He is not a competent leader of this football team. He has never been on a winning team in college or in the pros, and is therefore a loser. He is no Peyton Manning or Brett Favre, and never will be.
Well, I don't agree. It is too early to tell if he will be the savior most of us hope he is. And he may not be like a Peyton Manning of today. He lacks both the experience and supporting cast Peyton. We have gone over ad nauseum whether or not the lack of running game, pass blocking, poor coaching, or inexperienced receivers contribute to the actual Cutler we see on the field every Sunday vs. the imagined Cutler we saw in our minds all summer.
So I decided to compare Cutler's first years to the first years of some of the top QBs of the past 2 decades, to see if development and supporting cast make a difference. The QBs I compared him to are Steve Young, Joe Montana, Dan Marino, Jim Kelly, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Troy Aikman, and Brett Favre. I have the complete stats of each player for their first 4 years, but it is so much info that I decided not to post it. Let me know if anyone is interested in seeing the complete stats. Instead, I've compiled the averages of each QB's 1st year, then their 2nd year, etc. This allowed me to compare their progression with Jay's.
Here are the results:
| Year | Tm | WinPct | Cmp% | Yds | TD | TD% | Int | Int% | Rating | |
| Cutler | 2006 | DEN | 0.40 | 59.1 | 1001 | 9 | 6.6 | 5 | 3.6 | 88.5 |
| 2007 | DEN | 0.44 | 63.6 | 3497 | 20 | 4.3 | 14 | 3 | 88.1 | |
| 2008* | DEN | 0.50 | 62.3 | 4526 | 25 | 4.1 | 18 | 2.9 | 86 | |
| 2009 | CHI | 0.38 | 62.1 | 3023 | 19 | 4.2 | 22 | 4.8 | 75.2 | |
| Average | 0.43 | 61.8 | 3011.8 | 18.3 | 4.8 | 14.8 | 3.6 | 84.5 | ||
| Year | Tm | WinPct | Cmp% | Yds | TD | TD% | Int | Int% | Rating | |
| Other QBs | 1st Yr | n/a | 58.0 | 2299.0 | 14.6 | 4.2 | 12.8 | 3.5 | 77.0 | |
| 2nd Yr | n/a | 60.5 | 3217.5 | 21.8 | 4.6 | 15.1 | 3.3 | 82.7 | ||
| 3rd Yr | n/a | 62.2 | 3533.5 | 22.6 | 4.7 | 13.6 | 2.9 | 88.8 | ||
| 4th Yr | n/a | 62.2 | 3704.4 | 28.3 | 5.9 | 15.4 | 3.2 | 92.4 | ||
| Average | .584 | 60.7 | 3188.6 | 21.8 | 4.8 | 14.2 | 3.2 | 85.2 |
*I tried to throw out any years a QB had if less than 8 games started. Otherwise, Young's #s would be skewed.
What we see is that Jay's are actually similar or BETTER than the franchise QBs we are comparing him to for the first three years of his progression. Then we see a decline in his fourth year. What happened? He changed organizations, coaching staff, playbooks, and supporting personnel. In my opinion, for the worse. There is no other marquee QB on that list that had such a drastic change in scenery, so I cannot compare it with someone similar.
What we can gather from these numbers is that Jay Cutler's numbers are similar to HOF QB numbers. The difference has been the change from Denver to Chicago. I believe that is what has made him regress a bit as a QB. Hopefully, he'll be able to right the ship and continue his progression next year.
The last thing I'll mention is that the QB's I've compared him to had organizations that surrounded each with talented teammates and coaches who knew how to build a winner. Each of those QBs had progressed, in part, because the talent got better around them, or in the case of Tom Brady or Steve Young, were inserted into a talented core. Our franchise had better do the same, or we will see Cutler's talent wasted, similar to what happened to Steve Young in Tampa. He had year after year of poor records and depressed stat lines until he was traded to the Niners. Cutler can't will us to a win, especially at this early point in his career. Not many QBs, if any, could either.
SackMan also argued college win/loss stats as a valid indicator of QB intangibles and leadership that translate to wins and losses. I reject any college comparison or stats for this reason: a successful college QB doesn't make a successful NFL QB. Anybody want to relive the sorrow of the Mirer trade? Or wish we had drafted the most successful (arguably) college QB of the past 50 years, Tommy Frazier? I don't think so.
I don't want SackMan to think I'm calling him out or anything. I hope he is the first one to comment on my post and give his side of the argument. As always, I'm sure it will be logical and well thought-out. Heck, he could probably cut and paste some of his arguments into some new posts if he so desired.
4 recs |
198 comments
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Comments
Just realized I left out the win pct for the great QBs. I'll add it in a few...
by ChiLobo#23 on Dec 15, 2009 5:33 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Nice post,Me personally I was glad that Jay was here.But.
I thought that this year he will have some growing pains ( i didn’t that he would struggle this much) I didn’t think that he would be great right away.I expected the Bears to be over 500 no high expectations just realistic ones.
When i watch all of these games.Cutler makes his share of mistakes every Qb does.But when its the same mistake like WRs running the wrong routes you have to point to coaching.With all of the incompetent coaching,Him having pressure after the snap and have a maximum of 2 seconds to make a decision.No running game to help him out,Inexperience and a converted CB/return man as a “#1 WR” (which is why they should have kept Booker so he can show the young guys the ropes). And a o-line that can’t block a high school team.You are going to have problems.There are some things that Im impressed with his play and some plays when im not impressed.Bottom line is. You gotta give the kid some help,new coaching staff new o-line the works.He can get better and Im not going to think he suck because of just one year of being on a team that didn’t bother to get an experienced WR to help him out,a RB who dances like the penguin from “Happy Feet”,A O-line that gets blown up every play,and the most predictable OC in idiot ron turner who is predictable enough for an average joe to guess exactly what he is doing and having ZERO imagination to run some play that will actually work.
If he had a decent O-line he wouldn’t have as many picks as he does now.
by T.Moore on Dec 15, 2009 6:33 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Here's a new interview with Jay that offers more insight than his post game interviews.
by ChiLobo#23 on Dec 16, 2009 3:52 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Hmm...
On if he has learned from him(Ron Turner): “Yeah.”
One word answer. Something is probably wrong…
by GouldisGold on Dec 17, 2009 3:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry I never added the wins/losses, but it looks like this post was a success after all.
Most of the comments on this post were well thought out and good overall. Even if it didn’t change anyone’s mind on whether or not they like Cutler, I hope it made us think more about why we do and don’t before posting about it.
Regardless if you are a fan of his, the consensus seems to think he’s at the very least good, and the very most, possibly the next NFL great. We’ve invested a lot of money in him, and for better or worse, he’ll be with us for the forseeable (sp?) future. Here’s hoping that whatever his potential is, he realizes it to the fullest while he’s in a Bears uniform.
Thanks everyone for making my first major post a success!
by ChiLobo#23 on Dec 18, 2009 1:25 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
i like the Tommy Frazier reference
The key to Cutler’s improvement is in the coaching in my opinion. He will continue have problems until he gets the proper coahing he needs.
by Da Sassage on Dec 15, 2009 5:43 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
meh..
Tommy Frazier probably wasn’t going to play QB in the NFL anyway, and even still, his injury is what hampered him ever being a great past Nebraska, not the content of his character or his skills.
Sorry to get off-topic, but I always liked Tommy Frazier.
by BBANGUS on Dec 15, 2009 6:48 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Cutler hasnt been the same since
Cutlers has no confidence, lets hope the offseason signings and plenty of drinking wash away his memories, because he has not been the same since interception # 15, he’s no longer a gun slinger and thats what made him good, yes he threw picks just winging them balls 60 yrds but he also had big play capabilaties, now he doesnt dare try to stretch the field in fear of being picked, so he either overthrows or underthrows his wide open recievers. The bears ruined him,
by cutlersbutler on Dec 15, 2009 5:48 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Cutler is NOT a franchise QB.
I have never been much of a fan of Jay’s because he takes too many risks and throws a lot of INT’s, but he is a good QB. He’s not a franchise guy, though. We gave up too much for him, and I would undo the trade in a heartbeat. Orton doesn’t have near the talent Cutler has, but he is a smart player who doesn’t take many risks. I don’t make excuses for Cutler. While our horrible coaching and O-Line haven’t helped, his struggles have mostly been his fault. Awful trade by Angelo.
by GouldisGold on Dec 15, 2009 5:49 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
"because he takes too many risks and throws a lot of INT’s"
Like Farve?
by T.Moore on Dec 15, 2009 6:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Not really
They both are not far apart from their 1st 4 years.
Farve 53
Cutler 59.
And Jay started more games than Farve in those 4 years.
by T.Moore on Dec 15, 2009 6:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Peyton Manning
58 INTs after three full seasons (48 games).
81 INTs after four full seasons (62 games).
Culter: 59 after 50 games.
Favre: 51 after 45 games with GB (excluding two with Atlanta). 64 after 61 games.
Cutler after 50 games is almost identical to Peyton Manning after 48 games with regards to INT’s.
That ends that discussion for the most part..
by axthelm on Dec 15, 2009 11:04 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
That ends that discussion for the most part..
Oh, if only.
"The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt." - Bertrand Russell
"F*** everybody outside of Halas Hall. BEARDOWN" - WavyGravy
by Spongie on Dec 16, 2009 8:27 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
It ends it as far as this comment goes:
I have never been much of a fan of Jay’s because he takes too many risks and throws a lot of INT’s
When he’s in the same neighborhood as guys like Favre and Manning (insofar as INT’s goes) that pretty much ends that part of discussion.
He’s got similar INT stats as two of the all-time NFL greats after three/four years.
That’s the same song Bronco fans sing about Cutler (until you show them that after their first 50 games Cutler has 72 TD’s against 59 INT’s. John Elway had 62 TD’s to 60 INT’s).
Not saying (at all) that Jay Cutler is the next Peyton Manning, Brett Favre or John Elway (three HOF QB’s).
Am saying that if one uses that criteria (INT’s) to denigrate Cutler after three + years, at least use that same stat to also then denigrate Manning, Favre and Elway, among others.
Just sayin’.
by axthelm on Dec 16, 2009 3:09 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Right on!
We fry our QB before he even plays a full season!
Give this kid credit. He has come into a situation under a lot of pressure, with a very BAD Oline and inexperianced WR’s (who are actually pretty darn).
We have tools to build around. Don’t torch this guy before it is due.
We want him around awahile. Get rid of Lovie, get a GOOD QB coach other than PIP HAMILTON!!! And maybe this guy will shouw us what he is made of.
Just think if the Colts gave up on Manning this early in his career. Or Favre for that matter. Both were not so good in their first few years either.
by Bearsguy34 on Dec 17, 2009 12:44 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
You are making way too much sense
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Dec 17, 2009 4:54 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
If the discussion is INTs, then maybe.
But, when the discussion is wins/losses, it does not end anything.
You are all gentlemen (and ladies) and good judges of cheap whiskey.
by Dane Noble on Dec 16, 2009 11:35 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
The discussion was about INT's.
As far as winning goes, see my comment at the bottom of the page here (regarding the correlation between winning and team defense).
In Peyton Manning’s first four seasons he had two wining and two losing seasons.
In the two winning season the defense was ranked average (15th & 17th).
In the two losing seasons they were ranked terrrible ( 29th & 31st).
Almost all playoff teams rank in the upper half in team defense.
It’s hard to win with a crappy defense in the NFL. It can be done, but not usually.
Early on, Cutler couldn’t do it in Denver. And Manning couldn’t do it in Indy.
by axthelm on Dec 16, 2009 3:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Good points about defense being a big difference.
Also directly affects those interceptions: the desperation that comes with a defense unable to keep the opponent from scoring is what pressures the offense to take unacceptable risks.
May the wind be always at your back, and may your placekicker have icewater in his veins.
by juperee on Dec 21, 2009 8:01 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Ahh Statistics!
Would like to know the TD/INTs for even mid-range not so popular QBs in the NFL; like Carson Palmer for e.g., and their winning pct; chances are they are not so dissimilar than the stars in their first 4 seasons! What does that say about them? That everyone is the same talent? Grossman for that matter might look similar, why then did we get rid of him; he had a strong arm…and maybe not as many INTs.
by AKK on Dec 29, 2009 2:56 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
sorry can't agree with you at all
First off, not a bad trade by Angelo considering Jay’s worth at the time, and we’ve still yet to see what the Broncos do with that pick, what if that guy they pick is a total bust, even moreso than Cutler in your opinion. It’s too early to call it a bad trade, sorry.
Secondly I keep hearing people fondly remember Orton for NOT taking risks, except, when he was leading the offense in Chicago the gripe was that he WOULDN’T take any risks and couldn’t get the ball down field to Hester. What we got was the other side of the coin of Orton, a gutsy, big arm QB, without whatever the intangible is that we’ve suddenly granted Orton since he left, but we never gave him credit for while he was here. I still like Orton, but Jay was the type of QB we wanted, and now we are living with it. Perhaps he’s slightly flawed in the personal relations department, but I’m not ready to give up on him when he makes passes like he did to Knox against GB. Theres something there, we just have to be a little more patient. The press, GB fans, and everyone else needs ot get off the “Chicago fans protect Cutler” bandwagon. Damn right we protect him, the pack protected Farvre when he threw picks, the PAts protect Brady when he gets labeled ‘soft’ or a ‘cry baby’. This is our main man for the time being if anyone is going to give him some time top breathe and grow it should be us.
by BBANGUS on Dec 15, 2009 6:53 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Wow
Disagree…even without the upcoming pick the trade is clearly a loss for you guys. Denver got great stuff.
"Precipitation, which side are you on?
Are you on the rise? Are you falling down?
Let me know, Come on let's go, yeah
Got some if you need it!" -EV
by sadaraine on Dec 16, 2009 10:56 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
see if orton gets a big contract extension
seriously doubt it. he’s not a good QB, merely serviceable
by Jack M on Dec 16, 2009 11:39 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
He wins because of the Defense.
Thats been his career.Trent Dilfer (the main guy talking crap) is almost as good as Orton.And he won because of Ray Lewis and the Baltimore Defense (with a capital D).The fact that in 05 that the Bears D was among the elite and won 10 games as a rookie who also threw 5 picks against the Bengals is proof of that.
Gotta win on two of of three phases of the game.Mostly on Offense and Defense or you wont have a chance.Unless you have the 85 Bears D,or the 01 Ravens D but both had a running game too.Offense can win games for you but the D will always give you a chance to beat any team.Look at the browns they have a good DC I hope we get him.
by T.Moore on Dec 16, 2009 11:48 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Also
McDaniels probably thinks that a high school Qb can run his system.
by T.Moore on Dec 16, 2009 11:49 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
exactly
that’s the point i’m making to people who say ah the trade sucks denver got a great qb in orton how could you give him up etc. etc. just because a system is tailored to a qb who can’t throw the ball downfield and masks his deficiencies doesn’t make him an amazing qb. couldn’t agree more!
by Jack M on Dec 16, 2009 11:51 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
And the Fact
That Brandon Marshall had 21 catches.
by T.Moore on Dec 16, 2009 12:54 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Wait just a minute.
It’s almost as if you think we would have drafted the same guy(Robert Ayers) that the Broncos did. Probably not. If we had that pick, we probably would have picked Percy Harvin or Hakeem Nicks.
by GouldisGold on Dec 17, 2009 2:14 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
i agree with one thing you said Gouldis
I think we gave up too much to get Cutler.
The only way it would have worked out is if everything else had fallen into place as projected, and they didn’t.
Now, because of the trade and the loss of draft picks, we are likely in a long term rebuilding mode.
"I am not an animal!" - Merrick
by Maelvampyre on Dec 15, 2009 8:48 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
You better not
go looking up John Elway stats if you don’t think a Franchise QB throws picks.
by Dils on Dec 15, 2009 8:57 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
OF COURSE! How could I have left Elway off of the list!?
Oh well. Yeah, in looking him up, he had a ton of picks.
by ChiLobo#23 on Dec 15, 2009 9:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
he got sacked a lot too
I saw him play in his rookie year in Denver.
"I am not an animal!" - Merrick
by Maelvampyre on Dec 15, 2009 9:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Many (most?) of Cutler's INTs this season
can be explained by the offense being in 2nd and 3rd and long. The OL cannot run block so they are constantly in long yardage situations. Also, the inexperienced and not all that talented reciveing corps has created a lot of the INTs. I am not saying Cutler does not deserve some ciriticism, he has made some very poor throws, but I think most of those are due to the fact that he is in a bad situation and is trying too hard to make something out of nothing. Put some decent talents around him, and you will see what he is really capable of. He is a farnchise QB, but even a franchise QB needs some help.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Dec 16, 2009 9:48 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
As I said before.
If the O-line suck as much as ours.Joe Montana himself would struggle.Without at least a decent O-line an offense will never be any good.
Its All about the O-line its ALWAYS about the O-line.
by T.Moore on Dec 15, 2009 6:03 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Every good/great QB
Has an average O-line (big ben) to a good/great O-line.Manning knew his linemen very well and they were one of the best for years now.Same with Brady,Brees,Rivers,McNabb,Flacco,Palmer,Farve (with the vikes and pack) ,Eli Manning,Shaub,Warner,and Matt Ryan.
Broncos have maybe the best young core of O linemen in the NFL,Titans only allowed only 12 sacks this year.
by T.Moore on Dec 15, 2009 6:16 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Wasn't Ben sacked 8 times by the Browns?
Doesn’t sound like a good O-Line to me…
Lifelong Arizona Cardinals/Chicago Bears fan.
No band-wagoner fans allowed, pick a team and stick with em, throughout the good and the bad.
by JoeCB1991 on Dec 15, 2009 8:31 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
And they can at least run block
We cant do squat with our O-line
by T.Moore on Dec 15, 2009 9:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I believe that's skewed.
Ben tends to hold on to the ball too long, a lot! The linemen aren’t great, as TM pointed out, but they’re not as bad as it seems on paper.
-------
"Newbie, if the next two words out of your mouth aren't 'See ya' then the third word will be 'Oh my god. My crotch. You've punched me in my crotch." - Dr. Percival Ulysses Cox
by smudgers on Dec 15, 2009 10:23 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I never said that they were great
I said that they are average.
by T.Moore on Dec 15, 2009 10:30 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Re-read
I think I agreed with you,
Ben tends to hold on to the ball too long, a lot! The linemen aren’t great, as TM pointed out, but they’re not as bad as it seems on paper.
the meaning is all in the commas broski.
-------
"Newbie, if the next two words out of your mouth aren't 'See ya' then the third word will be 'Oh my god. My crotch. You've punched me in my crotch." - Dr. Percival Ulysses Cox
by smudgers on Dec 15, 2009 10:40 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I think a good qb
makes his o-line look good. Look at matt ryan that line was awful the year before they drafted him. Then with the same personnel it was much better the next.
by Jhitt81 on Dec 15, 2009 9:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
It goes both ways
That line wasn’t as bad as ours
by T.Moore on Dec 15, 2009 9:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
To me it looked worse
Because Vick was running all over the place so many times.They can at least run block.we can’t do diddily squat
by T.Moore on Dec 15, 2009 9:34 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
The more time you spend with you O-line
The better an offense can be.Look at Manning he knows his guys for YEARS and they are one of the best O-lines in the NFL for a long time.It goes both ways IMO but the line needs to learn how to freaking block.
by T.Moore on Dec 15, 2009 9:36 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I am quite sure that over time cutler will be a dominant quarterback in this league. Having said that, it is entirely up to the Chicago bears to see if they can build a team around him. I think he is already attempting to get the receivers he does have on the same sheet of music with him. The coaching staff is dragging their feet. How long has he been asking to get DA on the field everyone has been mentioning him but he didn’t get any play. Even in this weekends game when Knox went the wrong way you saw Cutler with his arm around him explaining what he expected him to do. I think he will grow into the job as long as the coaches and the franchise give him something to work with.
by 1BigDawg on Dec 15, 2009 6:32 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
There isn't a throw he can't make.
He has mobility, arm strength and accuracy. The problem with Jay is:
1) He has a $.10 head with a Million dollar arm. He must make better decisions. In the military we spend hours training on “Shoot/No Shoot” scenarios. This simuators teach us when to pull the trigger and after it happens we must justify why we did it to people with make alot more money than me. Jay needs similar training for foootball. He must learn when to pass, when to run, when throw it away, and when to take the sack.
2) Get him an offensive line will ya? This returns back to his $.10 head. He needs time to make the decision and when you drop back and have a 275lbs 6’4" DE coming at him, he rushs his thought process (me I’d just pee my pants and lie down on the ground sucking my thumb) and he makes poor decisions. They need to give 4-5 seconds to pick apart the defense.
3) Poor coaching. Play to Jay’s strength. Stop trying to fit a round peg into a square hole. Jay is at his best on role-outs, play-action, and Deep out routes.
4) Get a running game. The Bears have become to one dimensional. They need to be able to run the ball so they can allow Jay to find the mismatchs and the single coverages.
That’s not true!!! WHY THE F*CK WOULD YOU SAY THAT YOU AHOLE!! Ok maybe your right but you gotta give a little something here for it to work. I don’t know what I’m going to do this is the worst thing I’ve ever read, this day could not get any worse. Fine, F*ck it, you’re right.
by Ditkavsworld
by gaclaudy on Dec 15, 2009 6:58 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
This is all true
And all of this points to bringing in an offensive coordinator who can coach Jay up and design and run plays that utilize his strengths as a QB. I don’t Turner is really in touch with Jay’s strengths – or the rest of the players on offense for that matter.
"Yes, risk taking is inherently failure-prone. Otherwise, it would be called sure-thing-taking." - Jim McMahon
by JimmyMack on Dec 15, 2009 8:04 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
when you drop back and have a 275lbs 6’4" DE coming at him, he rushs his thought process (me I’d just pee my pants and lie down on the ground sucking my thumb)
Worth a rec for that alone (but it was a very good post all round) :-D
"The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt." - Bertrand Russell
"F*** everybody outside of Halas Hall. BEARDOWN" - WavyGravy
by Spongie on Dec 16, 2009 8:31 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
can't make this argument
all those QB’s were all in their 4th years with the same team. This is Jay’s first year remember. I think Jay’s numbers wouldve been higher than the average had he stayed in Denver. But, he’s on the shitty Bears.
by Savior52 on Dec 15, 2009 7:26 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Our offensive coordinator has ruined Grossman, Orton, and if we let him, Cutler. It’s time for a new approach.
by Bearfan1954 on Dec 15, 2009 8:32 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Did you exclude the players who didn't play there 1st
year from that average?
by Jhitt81 on Dec 15, 2009 8:58 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, and if the QB only got in 1 or 2 games in a year, I discarded that year also.
That made the numbers go up a little on average for the Greats. But I felt that since I was averaging yearly stats, and not the stats for each game within the year, the sample size would’ve been too small.
by ChiLobo#23 on Dec 15, 2009 9:06 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I will tell you one big diference
between cutler and those guys. Leadership, watch manning or brady on the sideline. That is one thing cutler doesn’t have. When something goes wrong he doesn’t go talk to the other guys he sulks off and sits by himself.
by Jhitt81 on Dec 15, 2009 9:04 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
That's silly and not true
So against the Eagles when he grabbed the chalk board and was drawing up plays on the SIDELINE, then went out and scored a TD wasn’t good enough leadership for you?
By the way, have you seen Brady and Manning’s body language on the sidelines? When they are either rolling there eyes or barking at there WR’s? It’s a lot worse trust.
by Dils on Dec 15, 2009 9:08 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
It's not silly at all
It’s a big problem. He acted the same way in denver. It cracks me up because the bronco fans responded the same way for the first couple of years. But by the third even they where starting to talk about it. I also have been to bars he went to and none of the staff liked him. According to them he was a pompus ass. Now whatever, he’s young and has elite talent. I see that and as a bear fan i truly hope he can grow up and be coached up.
by Jhitt81 on Dec 15, 2009 9:19 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
ChiLobo#23...
The best point you made which no one ever talks about is that there isn’t another QB of Cutler’s potential, at this juncture of his career who went to a worse team and carried on as usual with their stats. I think for fans not to expect an adjustment period for a QB who still wasn’t a finished product and coming to a less talented team isn’t fair.The results of that trade and Cutler’s worth are in the beginning stages, not the end.
by Dils on Dec 15, 2009 9:12 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Who is another example?
The best point you made which no one ever talks about is that there isn’t another QB of Cutler’s potential, at this juncture of his career who went to a worse team and carried on as usual with their stats
by Jhitt81 on Dec 15, 2009 9:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
there isn’t another
"The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt." - Bertrand Russell
"F*** everybody outside of Halas Hall. BEARDOWN" - WavyGravy
by Spongie on Dec 16, 2009 8:33 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Mmm, yes and no.
Leadership was another element of our original argument that I left off this post. I would argue 3 points.
1. You do actually see Cutler take Knox or another WR off to the side when they miss a completion.
2. The team has established leaders already. You don’t see that fiery leadership of a Manning I think, because this is his first year on the team, and he hasn’t earned the right in the eyes of the players to yell at a guy like Pace for a false start, or a guy like Kreutz. Leadership is earned from those who would be led, not be the figure of your paycheck.
3. He is young. Its almost hard to believe he is only 26. Brady and Manning, the players you mentioned, have learned over time how to lead. Its kind of funny how people forget how they were at the beginning of their careers.
by ChiLobo#23 on Dec 15, 2009 9:16 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
My response
1. I haven’t really seen cutler do that.
2. Players can come right in and be a leader(matt ryan).
3. Both Manning and Brady were pretty fiery leaders there 1st few years. I will give you this first year. But i never saw him act like it in denver either and he played there 3 years. You guys need to remember he is not a rookie.
by Jhitt81 on Dec 15, 2009 9:25 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Matt Ryan had help and a lot of it.
1. he does sometimes if you pay attention or go to a game and watch him.
2. Michael Turner had a boom year, their o line was rock solid, and Roddy White anyone? We have a weak o line..an average WR group(excepting this past week), and Forte suffers at least in part because of the weak line.
3. Cutler has a lot more fire than people give him credit for..just because his face looks so impassive means nothing. There’s a lot we don’t see.
by Pretender85 on Dec 15, 2009 11:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
First of all i do pay attention.
i went to a lot of games in denver my company has season tickets. So i have gotten a good look at jay cutler. Second, i was talking about Matt Ryan stepping in and being a leader. Third of all what we don’t see means nothing, you could also say lovie does a lot of coaching you don’t see, what i care about and the only thing that is relevent to me is what i do see.
by Jhitt81 on Dec 15, 2009 11:47 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
what i care about and the only thing that is relevent to me is what i do see.
Indeed. Who needs logic or facts? If I don’t see it, it’s not relevant. Must try that in a court of law.
"The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt." - Bertrand Russell
"F*** everybody outside of Halas Hall. BEARDOWN" - WavyGravy
by Spongie on Dec 16, 2009 8:38 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
"If I don’t see it, it’s not relevant"
Sounds like what kobe fans would say when they try to make a debate about him being better than MJ.
I had those type of debates.
by T.Moore on Dec 16, 2009 12:58 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
How is saying
There’s a lot we don’t see.
Relevent? Would “he didn’t kill him there was a lot you didn’t see judge” hold up in court? I was simply defending my opinion which is based on the only facts i am able to logically deduce said opinion from.
by Jhitt81 on Dec 16, 2009 5:13 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Regarding your Matt Ryan example
He had an entirely different situation. Atlanta was a tired, downtrodden team after the Vick saga with a new QB, RB, HC, and GM. There were no pre-existing coach’s favorites because he just got there, his favorite was the QB he drafted. No anger from teammates that the new QB was taking a job from the old favorite, since the old QB was in prison at the time. The fans expected nothing, it was supposed to be the start of a serious rebuilding, the team really couldn’t disappoint.
Pretty much the opposite here. Hype and expectations galore “Super Bowl baby”, followed by “woe is us” and “Cutler’s a bum” after a couple games. A coaches who stocks his team and staff with favorites, even importing them from his old teams. Offensive leader is a long tenured, multi Pro-Bowl center reaching the end of his career. Defensive leader is a MLB with the same credentials. Most of the team has been together for a long time, the defense is almost intact from the Super Bowl. Jay was replacing a generally well liked young QB who was shipped off over night to make room for him. The trade also giving Jay a big “selfish, petulant, primadonna” tag in the media.
Most importantly IMO the Falcons were in an acknowledged rebuilding process and chose to build around Ryan. The Bears are in an unacknowledged rebuilding process. Rather than just say “we’re rebuilding” they keep bringing the old pieces back and try to find the “missing” one to shove in and make it complete.
The Falcons were leaderless and all Ryan had to do was take a snap. The Bears had a “leader” on both sides in Kreutz and Urlacher. Though I think Kreutz is only a leader in that he’s been here forever and he’ll punch you if you say otherwise. Given the situation Cutler needs to fit in before he can step up and lead the team. He’s been in the league 4 years now, but he’s a rookie Bear.
by SaintCee on Dec 16, 2009 12:49 AM CST up reply actions 8 recs
You Sir
Pretty much just hit the nail right on the head
by Chitownproduct on Dec 16, 2009 2:58 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, good job here.
We could take what you and a few others have written, add my and axthelm’s stats, and create an article better than any I’ve seen in the Chicago newspapers.
by ChiLobo#23 on Dec 16, 2009 12:04 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Why do you trash the coaching staff
I just do not understand why this Bear blog and others keeps trashing the coaches, especially Turner. In order to make a mule team go, you need mules and unfortunately, we have unicorns.
When you have a totally inadequate offensive line (and I sure hope no one disagrees with that), you limit the play-calling and the abilities of ALL of the playmakers. If you run on first down and then have second down somewhere between 2nd-9 and 2nd-11, your plays available to you become somewhat limited.
Same thing when you pass on first down and have 2nd and 5 or 6 and then you run – once again, you’re faced with a little longer 3rd down than you would like.
Based upon this offensive line, you are tasking Cutler with making more out of each play than it was designed or going for broke more often.
Stinky offensive lines means stinky offense, especially in the red zone.
This is a Jerry Angelo problem that will only go away once Jerry goes away, or gets his act together. Good luck with so very few draft picks.
by Dirt Road on Dec 15, 2009 9:24 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Turner sucks now and will forever
We have never had an explosive offense even when we had a solid o line. Everyone he coaches regresses. How many times are you gonna get stuffed on 3rd or 4th down short yardage play before you realize that we cannot convert with running up the middle? Lovie is just not smart enough or to stubborn to change anything and who the f@*k is Pep Hamilton? You can tell by his name he is garbage and what credentials does he have to coach the most important postion on the field? Pep? What a stupid name. He needs to pep his ass outta Chicago and go pep himself. And JC can be great. I love the play(called back by penalty of course) against SF where he got the defender to jump and stood in there and fired a perfect pass to Bennet before getting layed out by the dude he pump faked.
by Ryan21 on Dec 16, 2009 6:55 AM CST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Everyone he coaches regresses.
Not only true of Turner, it seems. If a team gets better over the course of time (see Green Bay’s offensive line… gave up a ton of sacks in the first half of the season, much improved over the last few games) then it’s probably due to good coaching. Have we been getting better over the course of the last few seasons?
"The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt." - Bertrand Russell
"F*** everybody outside of Halas Hall. BEARDOWN" - WavyGravy
by Spongie on Dec 16, 2009 8:42 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I have that same play stuck in my mind!
He looked completely calm during the whole thing, too. I could not stay that calm with a huge dude coming to kill me.
by ChiLobo#23 on Dec 16, 2009 12:08 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
it was my favorite play this year
It was like when Devin Hester returned that field goal and just started walking out all casual like then BOOM! He’s gone.
by Ryan21 on Dec 16, 2009 4:25 PM CST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
I remember that
If it was Rex he would run like a wimp.
by T.Moore on Dec 16, 2009 5:43 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I like Santa
That’s not true!!! WHY THE F*CK WOULD YOU SAY THAT YOU AHOLE!! Ok maybe your right but you gotta give a little something here for it to work. I don’t know what I’m going to do this is the worst thing I’ve ever read, this day could not get any worse. Fine, F*ck it, you’re right.
by Ditkavsworld
by gaclaudy on Dec 16, 2009 10:23 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Is that you Frosty?
That’s not true!!! WHY THE F*CK WOULD YOU SAY THAT YOU AHOLE!! Ok maybe your right but you gotta give a little something here for it to work. I don’t know what I’m going to do this is the worst thing I’ve ever read, this day could not get any worse. Fine, F*ck it, you’re right.
by Ditkavsworld
by gaclaudy on Dec 16, 2009 11:42 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I love lamp.
May the wind be always at your back, and may your placekicker have icewater in his veins.
by juperee on Dec 21, 2009 8:31 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
The Bears invested a great deal in Jay Cutler.
Lets face it, we gave up two 1st, a 3rd, and the overlooked (and overly maligned) Kyle Orton to acquire Jay. I’m still up in the air and willing to listen to any and all arguments concerning Cutler’s future with the beloved. But try to be objective Bears fans. With a huge sacrifice came huge expectations and Jay has not lived up to them. Also, since we invested so much hope in the Cutler trade many fans continue to look for reasons why it can’t possibly be Jay’s fault. As one fan post put it: A) It isn’t Jays fault and we still have hope or B) It is Jay’s fault and I might as well open up a vein. Not pleasant options to consider but many of us do.
The one thing I am tiring of is Jay Cutler apologists. He leads the league in interceptions yet many want to blame this on the entire organization and deflect most, if not all of the blame from Jay. Let me repeat, HE LEADS THE LEAGUE IN INTERCEPTIONS. He being Jay Cutler. Not the offensive line (which does suck) or the receivers (who are green) but Jay Cutler himself. As SackMan has consistently (and correctly) pointed out Jay Cutler is the common denominator in EVERY interception.
I think the Jury’s still out on Jay, but for the love of Ditka, quit making excuses for Jay and treat him like you would treat every other Bears QB with the same track record. Jay has sucked this year. For whatever reasons HE (Jay himself) has sucked. Maybe he turns it around. Maybe not. But please open your eyes (and your minds) and recognize that Jay isn’t getting it done. Not this year. Not even close.
Thanks,
Just Dave
If you can't laugh at yourself you must not be very funny.
by Just Dave on Dec 15, 2009 9:35 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
It's been a difficult transistion,
but I am starting to agree. The funny thing about the blame game is that he had a great offensive line, great receivers and a decent running game in Denver last year. But still was second in the league in turnovers.
However, I will still fully support Jay and still believe that he has the every bit of the potential and talent to be what we expected or desired him to be. But as you said, just not this year.
-------
"Newbie, if the next two words out of your mouth aren't 'See ya' then the third word will be 'Oh my god. My crotch. You've punched me in my crotch." - Dr. Percival Ulysses Cox
by smudgers on Dec 15, 2009 10:36 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, improve the corps around him then.
If it doesn’t work out then, put the blame on his shoulders..right now its nearly impossible to do that because there are so many things going wrong with the team. As for his turnovers in Denver..some guys are instant hits and protect the ball..some have to learn it..like a certain QB just north of us that has harassed us for years, from 2 different states now too. Either way you have to try to fix the rest of our offense before you put all the blame on a guy who just came into the system.
by Pretender85 on Dec 15, 2009 11:31 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh,
In no way am I blaming all of our offensive or overall woes on Jay, I do recognize our team’s deficiencies. I’m just saying that he may not be all we hyped him up to be – yet.
I’m okay with some of the picks and recognize that they’re not all on him. I knew going in that he was going to throw some, but the good outweighs the bad with him, imo. However, we do have to start holding him a bit more accountable and stop blaming everything but.
-------
"Newbie, if the next two words out of your mouth aren't 'See ya' then the third word will be 'Oh my god. My crotch. You've punched me in my crotch." - Dr. Percival Ulysses Cox
by smudgers on Dec 16, 2009 5:37 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Ok, I get it.
You recognize the potential, but are not seeing it on the field, for whatever reason. What do you think needs to happen for him to realize that potential?
by ChiLobo#23 on Dec 16, 2009 12:09 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Offensive line
is the most important thing. Jay’s one of the best in the league at scrambling, but there’s been numerous times this year that defensive linemen are beating Jay to his drops. That’s absolutely ridiculous.
I’m not much of a Ron Turner basher, but I’d really like to see some bootlegs or roll-outs utilized. By doing so, it accents Jay’s ability mentioned above and helps hide some of the deficiencies we have on the line.
Also, it always seems like Chicago QB’s tend to have an issue with their mechanics. A lot of this, with Jay, has to do with the pressure he sees on the majority of the snaps. However, he needs to more sound and avoid throwing off the back foot as much. I’m not sure if that’s on Pep or on Jay, probably both, but it needs to be addressed.
The only other thing is experience. More snaps, more in-game experience, more, more, more.
-------
"Newbie, if the next two words out of your mouth aren't 'See ya' then the third word will be 'Oh my god. My crotch. You've punched me in my crotch." - Dr. Percival Ulysses Cox
by smudgers on Dec 16, 2009 1:46 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Finally someone with some common sense.
I totally agree with you. Jay Cutler has tons of potential he just hasn’t lived up to it. Watching Brandon Marshall this week even the staunchest “Jay Cutler apologists” have to realize he made him better. I am in no way saying Cutler won’t be good, he just hasn’t been yet. As a long time bears fan i hope he does.
by Jhitt81 on Dec 15, 2009 11:18 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I think that he will get better
But this year year hes not getting it done.I did say that I thought he would struggle in his 1st year here.I never thought that our run game would suck so bad
by T.Moore on Dec 16, 2009 7:33 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree to some extent and he has to share the blame
But never in my life have I seen so many picks where the ball has been thrown to a spot and the wr was running the other way. I almost have to believe a good many of them are the fault of the wr running wrong routes or cutting routes short. Complete misscomunication and poor technique due to bad coaching. No doubt Jay has made some bonehead throws (that last pick in the 49er game in the endzone was just awful). So I blame him on half the picks but the others look like poor route running and that has to fall on wr/coaching. So I give Cutler a C grade on the year for lack of talent around him and poor design and coaching that talent. But he definitely has to continue to learn to check down or throw it away. We simply cannot complete every throw on the field. Nothing wrong with punting sometime..
" Former Original WCG Power Poster!"
by tfrabotta on Dec 16, 2009 3:00 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
We're on the same page but...
You ugly and yo momma dresses you funny! I still want to know the extent of the immaturity that you had to achieve to keep getting blocked on the “other” thread. That being said, Jay’s being a cotton headed ninny muggins this year and deserves the verbal swirly by every Bears fan. Welcome to the second city where we reserve the right to criticize everything Bears related without thought or insight. This is Chicago where you need a Dick Butkus fan talk.
If you can't laugh at yourself you must not be very funny.
by Just Dave on Dec 15, 2009 10:58 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Welcome to the second city where we reserve the right to criticize everything Bears related without thought or insight.
This is the first season where I’ve been following Bears’ fans thoughts (having been pretty much on my own on this side of the Atlantic for many years). It’s been… eye-opening.
"The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt." - Bertrand Russell
"F*** everybody outside of Halas Hall. BEARDOWN" - WavyGravy
by Spongie on Dec 16, 2009 8:45 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
?
I haven’t been blocked on another thread. And I have no idea what you are talking about.
by ChiLobo#23 on Dec 15, 2009 11:28 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I suggest you stop focusing on INTs and TDs, and QB ratings...
And start focusing on WINNING.
Because Jay Cutler and winning do not belong in the same sentence. In fact… he has never had a winning season to date in College (Career record in Vanderbilt was 2-10, 2-10, 2-9, 5-6), or in the NFL (2-3. 7-9. 8-8, 5-8)
"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)
Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)
.
by SackMan on Dec 15, 2009 11:29 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Teams win games
and the teams defense is a huge part of that.
In Cutler’s two full seasons in Denver, they were ranked 28th and 30th in defense. It doesn’t get much worse than that.
Look at Peyton Manning’s first four seasons:
1998 (3-13) 29th in defense
1999 (13-3) 17th in defense
2000 (10-6) 15th in defense
2001 (6-10) 31st in defense
In their two winning seasons they were ranked in the middle on defense. Their two losing seasons at the bottom.
Teams win. Not QB’s.
The play of the QB matters a lot, but last I looked none of them played defense.
by axthelm on Dec 15, 2009 11:38 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Peyton Manning
had 58 INTs after three full seasons (48 games).
Culter has 59 after 50 games.
In Manning’s fourth season with the Colts he threw for the second most number of INT’s (23) after his 28 as a rookie.
In fact, in a week 10 loss at home to SF that season (2001), Manning threw four picks prompting an outburst directed at Manning from then head coach Jim Mora, where Mora publicly threw Manning under the proverbial bus.
Mora’s public criticism of Manning caused Peyton to respond in kind to Mora:
http://quicktime.cnnsi.com/inside_game/don_banks/news/2001/11/28/banks_insider/
It hasn’t always been ‘peaches ’n cream’ for even a guy like Peyton Manning.
When critiquing players, a little perspective usually goes a long, long way.
by axthelm on Dec 15, 2009 11:53 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
"Teams win. Not QB's"
Thats the truth Jay is having a bad year so far.But if you bring up winning records would anyone have Trent Dilfer as their long term QB?
by T.Moore on Dec 16, 2009 7:37 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
They play defense by keeping the other teams offense of the field.
by khamer on Dec 16, 2009 6:09 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
That makes NO sense
If it did, teams with great offenses would dominate TOP.
They don’t. In fact, many great offenses score quickly, putting their defense back out on the field sooner rather than later.
For an extreme example, look at this years game in Miami between the Colts and the Dolphins.
The Colts only had the ball for 15 minutes, yet won the game.
Indy’s defense was on the field almost 45 minutes.
by axthelm on Dec 16, 2009 6:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
TOP record this week in nfl 11-5
Of the teams that won this week 11 won the TOP battle only 5 of teams that won this week lost the TOP battle. This is a very consistant stat week in and week out.
by khamer on Dec 16, 2009 7:17 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
"Teams win games & and the teams defense is a huge part of that."
wonder which teams D is in the top 10 ever when their QB throws 25+ INTs a season?
If team defense wins games & for that matter Superbowls, why trade for Cutler or another franchise QB, giving away 2 first rounders and 1 second rounder in the process? We should of just overloaded our roster and taken a couple more DEs & LBs; hoping we could contain a Manning, Brees or Brady if at all we got to the playoffs!
by AKK on Dec 29, 2009 2:04 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Bottom line...
Cutler needs to be better next year. Period.
by Uncle Stanley McGoober on Dec 16, 2009 6:28 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
give Cutler some better tools to work with
and then we can see if he is what we hoped he would be when the Bears traded for him. This OL is just awful and puts Cutler in too many 3rd and longs. Also, the WRs are just not very good. It is a collection of guys where one or two might become a decent #2, but most are no better than #3s or worse.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Dec 16, 2009 9:42 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Are you saying a converted DB can't be our #1?
Look, just because he played DB all through College and High School, is the size of a smurf, and the hands of the Thing from the Fantastic Four, doesn’t mean he isn’t a number #1. Al Davis say’s that speed is the most important when it comes to a reciever, and we are talking about Al Davis here, I mean he won a Super Bowl in 1970! Look at Oakland’s number #1 draft pick this year, what he run a 4.32-40? Of course he has only like 2 catchs this year but I mean he really fast.
/sarcasim button engaged
I agree with you 100%.
That’s not true!!! WHY THE F*CK WOULD YOU SAY THAT YOU AHOLE!! Ok maybe your right but you gotta give a little something here for it to work. I don’t know what I’m going to do this is the worst thing I’ve ever read, this day could not get any worse. Fine, F*ck it, you’re right.
by Ditkavsworld
by gaclaudy on Dec 16, 2009 10:27 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
sarcasm received
The media around here (SF Bay Area) continuously hammers the Raiders for being the most mismanaged NFL franchise and they lay the blame squarely on Al Davis, the senile old man who won’t let go of the team. It was his call to draft DHB over Crabtree simply because he is faster.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Dec 16, 2009 12:11 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
The scariest part
It’s all fine and dandy to compare Jay to Hall of Famers because that’s what we all hope he is but the bottom line is that if you compare the starting QB’s for the Bears since 2004 excluding Orton’s rookie year, his numbers are nearly identical tor would project similarly to the leading Bear’s passer in those years given the number of pass attempts (Hutchinson, Grossman, Griese, and Orton.) They ALL have ratings, TD INT ratios, yds per attempt, and sack numbers that are hideously favorable. So let’s see if he can out play the same guys we wanted run out of town before we compare him to Super Bowl champions.
by bookend77 on Dec 16, 2009 10:05 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
out of curiosity
i’m not seeing how he stacks up as better
looking at the “Great QB’s” it would suggest that each year they improved. For Jay each year he’s gotten worse in terms of QB rating. There doesn’t seem to be the steady improvement exhibited by the other group
by DartmouthCubsFan on Dec 16, 2009 3:58 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Well, what I see as I look across the stats is...
Jay performs equally or better in each stat catagory every year except for this year except for 2: QB rating and TD%.
I think the TD% is different for the fact that last year, he threw a ton of passes in each game, as they were playing from behind for many games.
You are right on QB rating, though. I’m not sure why. It’s still very close to the averages of the great QBs, though.
by ChiLobo#23 on Dec 16, 2009 4:28 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Also, I'm not saying he is better than these greats.
The main message is that he is no different from them in their first 4 years, and the reason for the drop this year is for the reasons I mentioned.
by ChiLobo#23 on Dec 16, 2009 4:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
but i think the concern is progression
Cutler was better than the other group in years 1, 2, and 3 while basically plateauing in all stats in the first 3 years, then in year 4 has fallen off
granted there are reasons we can write off the regression, but the big difference to me is that the other group of QB’s show steady progression, Cutler hasn’t done that. He took one big step into the NFL then plateaued and hasn’t improved since
by DartmouthCubsFan on Dec 16, 2009 8:18 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Hmm.
I see what you mean. But if you look at each QBs stats individually, there is a bit of a roller coaster ride there as well, like Cutler. When you average them out, you see a steady progression. Cutler’s numbers are similar to theirs or better and his INT% went DOWN despite having to throw a ton of passes last year in the second half of games.
by ChiLobo#23 on Dec 17, 2009 5:08 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
but then
the INT% jumped back up in year 4…
we can make all the excuses we want here, but the general trend for Cutler has been a plateau and then regression downwards
i think that’s something we need to be concerned about
by DartmouthCubsFan on Dec 17, 2009 9:42 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
That was my whole point of the post!
Go back and read my analysis after the stats. Cutler improved in most aspects every year until he was traded, in year 4. Why has he regressed? It’s in my analysis. Read that section again, and comment on it. I don’t care if you disagree with me, in fact I welcome it because it makes the conversation richer, but read finish reading the post before taking issue.
by ChiLobo#23 on Dec 18, 2009 1:17 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
but he didn't improve in most aspects...
he plateaued
maintaining and improving are two different things
nearly everything in his 2nd and 3rd seasons are identical
completion % down
td % down
int % down
rating down
that’s not improving, i suppose its improving in INT RATE by .1%, but everything else was mild regression, which really means plateauing, NOT improving
by DartmouthCubsFan on Dec 18, 2009 3:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Win vs Loses
Winning Quarterbacks are leaders. Franchise Quarterbacks find ways to win. Strong arms win punt pass and kick contest not nfl games. Although winning records in college do not dictate a winning record in the nfl, how can a losing record dictate wins in the nfl. 11-34 in college 22-28 in the nfl. Never having a winning record seems to be a habit just as winning is a habit.
by khamer on Dec 16, 2009 6:19 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Peyton Manning's first fours seasons
32-32.
Doesn’t sound like much of a winner to me.
Keep arguing this. You’ll still keep losing.
by axthelm on Dec 16, 2009 6:32 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
HOF'er Troy Aikman's
record in games started his first four seasons:
27-27.
by axthelm on Dec 16, 2009 6:39 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Peyton And Aikman Win in College
Peyton 34-5 in college. Aikman 20-4 for the Bruinsafter he transfered from University of Oklahoma with a winning recorded. Winning is a habit.
by khamer on Dec 16, 2009 7:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I know almost nothing about college football
That said, you’re not comparing Vanderbilt with UCLA and Tennessee when it comes to football programs, are you?
by axthelm on Dec 16, 2009 8:05 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
As Jay Cutler
When Cutler is 500 in his nfl career You can make that 32-32 argument . Cutler is 22-28.
by khamer on Dec 16, 2009 6:46 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Again you simply don't understand NFL football.
It’s a TEAM game, not an individual sport like tennis or golf.
For example, In Aikman’s first four seasons his record as a starter was:
0-11
7-8
7-5
13-3
The Cowboy defense, in those four seasons, was ranked:
24th
15th
17th
5th
Notice the upward progression? How their record improved as their defense improved (from 24th to 5th)?
In Cutler’s two full seasons in Denver and this year in Chicago the team’s defense has been ranked:
28th
30th
21st.
As I said before (and I can’t help it if you fail to understand this): When a teams defense pretty much sucks (and 21st – 30th pretty much sucks) it’s hard to win in the NFL.
Please try to understand this. It’s not very difficult.
by axthelm on Dec 16, 2009 7:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I see 3 out of 4 winning season there. Thank you for making my point.
by khamer on Dec 16, 2009 7:03 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Dude, you make me laugh
Ever hear of Kyle Boller?
His record for his first three seasons? 18-16.
That’s a better percentage than Peyton Manning and Troy Aikman.
Do you see how your nonsense (and your refusal to understand that DEFENSE matters in football) falls apart.
Unless you’re willing to tell me that you believe that Kyle Boller is a better QB than Manning and Aikman.
You’re not actually going to tell me that, are you?
Repeat after me: It’s a TEAM sport. For example, Cutler has two losses on his record this year (Cincinnati and Arizona) when his defense did absolutley NOTHING in those two games (except let the opposition score at will).
See how that works?
TOP? That makes no sense.
If it did, teams with great offenses would dominate TOP.
They don’t. In fact, many great offenses score quickly, putting their defense back out on the field sooner rather than later. (See teams like Fout’s Chargers, Marino’s Dolphins, the 1998 Vikings, etc)
For an extreme example, look at this years game in Miami between the Colts and the Dolphins.
The Colts only had the ball for 15 minutes, yet won the game.
Indy’s defense was on the field almost 45 minutes.
by axthelm on Dec 16, 2009 7:17 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
11-5 in TOP this week
11 of the 16 teams that won this week won the battle of TOP this week. Only 5 winning teams lost the TOP battle this week. this is a pretty consistant stat week in and week out..
by khamer on Dec 16, 2009 7:25 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Nice of you to ignore Kyle Boller
Cause by khamer’s criteria he’s a better QB than both Manning and Aikman.
Dude, you’re killing me. You’re hysterical!
by axthelm on Dec 16, 2009 7:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
No, I m only saying Jay Culter has not had a winning season
andthat franchise quarter back find a way to win and that winning is a habit. I hope Jay can find a way to win. That would be Great . I’ll let Jay speak for himself in the win and lose column for the remainder of his career.
by khamer on Dec 16, 2009 7:35 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Again Dude
he had the 28th & 30th ranked defense in Denver.
Ya think that might’ve had SOMETHING to do with the lack of a ‘winning season?’
Sheesh!
by axthelm on Dec 16, 2009 7:45 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Lemme help you out (yet again)
In 2006, Rex Grossman threw 20 INT’s and yet his team went to the SB.
Why? In large part because the DEFENSE was ranked #3.
In 2008 Jay Cutler threw 18 INT’s. His team finished 8-8.
Why? In large part because his defense ranked #30!
You do understand how much better it is when your defense is ranked #3, as opposed to #30, don’t you?
And that Rex and Jay had little (if anything) to do with those defensive rankings.
Until you start to understand that football is a team game, your concepts will always be flawed.
by axthelm on Dec 16, 2009 7:55 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Rex Grossman,Kyle Orton
Have winning records but you don’t see anyone saying that those two are all time greats.Both had a DOMINANT defenses to boost up those records.Not to mention that the O-line that they both had can actually block for more than 5 seconds.And orton now has a great O-line and D at denver.Very few times do you solely count on him to win you games except against the lions.I agree with you.
by T.Moore on Dec 16, 2009 8:55 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Right
Unfortunately khamer has trouble understanding that.
I’m all for winning records and less INT’s and (especially) great leadership from the QB position.
But it’s a team game.
Steve Young was 3-16 as the QB of one of the (then) worst teams in the NFL, the Tampa Bay Bucs.
After being traded to the offensive powerhouse that was Bill Walsh’s 49ers, he went to the HOF.
I’m not the smartest guy in the world, but I can figure that one out.
If Steve Young had never left Tampa Bay, the only people who would know him is his family and friends. Certainly not most NFL fans.
by axthelm on Dec 16, 2009 9:08 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
High School has nothing to do with it.But since people brings up his college record I will say this.Just to humor people
College football doesn’t matter at all,But just for the hell of it since guys are saying that he never won any where I will just bring up his high school stats.I know high school is nothing to the NFL but i just want to humor some people.
In his high school career he lost only one game,26-1 including a 90 to 0 shutout against Pike Central.
At Vandy a school that hasn’t beaten Florida since the 40s took them to OT and scored the 2nd most points ever against Florida at their home field and nearly beaten the 13th ranked gators.Vanderbilt is not known to be a powerhouse and they beaten Wake Forest,Arkansas,Ole miss,And tennessee (for the 1st time since the 70s!).3 very good teams and a garbage team in richmond.
My point basically is that college and high school doesn’t matter at all so I don’t know why people brings it up.“he hasn’t won anywhere” I keep hearing that.So I bring up his HS achievments to prove that he didn’t lose everywhere and just to humor people. lol
Again HS and college doesn’t matter period.But winning in the NFL is a TEAM thing.Back in HS or College an individual can win a game since college teams skill level (such as Florida vs FIU) is way bigger than other teams.in the NFL you can’t win alone period.
by T.Moore on Dec 16, 2009 9:30 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
A good quarteback helps the defense by keeping the opposing teams offense off the feild. TOP a key state in winning.
by khamer on Dec 16, 2009 7:06 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
An article from TheBleacherReport.com from before the trade detailed his ability to find ways to win.
It detailed how he “He already has eight fourth-quarter, game-tying or game-winning drives, and he would have had two more if not for dropped fourth-down passes.”
Add to that the 2 wins for us earlier this year which he did the same, and you have 10 instances where he found ways to win.
by ChiLobo#23 on Dec 16, 2009 6:47 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
It would be interesting to see
How many games he has lost in the same fashion. Or even compare this to redzone turnovers. I’m not sure what these stats are and I will let Jay do his talking in the win and lose record for the remaining games of his career. These are just my opions: winning is a habit by Leaders.
by khamer on Dec 16, 2009 7:22 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
You completely fail to understand two important factors here
when you say this:
winning is a habit by Leaders
1. Most (not all) franchise QB’s are drafted by crappy teams, who need much more than a change at QB to excell.
2. There was a time (not all that long ago) when rookie QB’s sat on the bench and learned behind the team’s veteran QB. Nowadays they are almost always rushed into play, usually far too early.
Aaron Rodgers is a recent exception to this rule, as he sat behind Favre for four years.
Rodgers himself recently stated that while he wanted to play right away, he benefited greatly by sitting on the bench and learning behind a future HOF’er.
Savvy NFL fans need only to look at Rodger’s draft class to see and understand this.
Alex Smith was taken #1 that season by a lousy 49er team and thrown to the wolves almost rightaway. Rodgers was taken near the end of the first round and had the benifit of going to a better team and learning his craft at the NFL level before starting.
Big difference there.
The QB position is the most important position in the NFL. That said, they can’t block, or catch the ball (and seldom run). They don’t play defense or special teams.
It’s a TEAM game!
by axthelm on Dec 16, 2009 7:34 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
"The QB position is the most important position in the NFL."
I gotta disagree with you there.Its all about the O-line.A team without at least an average O-line like I said above NO offense can survive without an O-line which the Bears don’t have
by T.Moore on Dec 16, 2009 8:49 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Ken Whisenhunt took over the Cardinals in 2007
The biggest weak spot in that team was the O-Line. In their previous 17 + season they had only two 1,000 yard rushers.
Two! That’s pathetic. To rush for 1,00 yards only means you have to average 63 yards a game.
When Whisenhunt came in he brought along Russ Grimm as his O-Line coach. Grimm was a great O-Lineman in his playing days.
Without drafting or trading for any great O-Lineman (actually they just lost their best lineman in Free Agency, former 1st rounder Leonard Davis), they have performed much, much better since Grimm got there in 2007.
However, the biggest difference maker is Kurt Warner. After last season Ron Jaworski said that Kurt Warner played the QB position about as well as any QB in the 2007-2008 season.
The QB has his hands on the ball every single play in the NFL.
Yes, he needs talent/quality play around him. He can’t do it by himself.
But he’s the single most important player on the team.
Just look at the 0-6 Titans after they started Vince Young at QB.
by axthelm on Dec 16, 2009 9:38 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
Im just saying that a good O-line makes everything possible.Eventually that line gotten better.And the Cards were never known to be a running team as well because they had no special RBs, and why run when you have those WRs and QB?But they gotten better and Beanie Wells look like a possible future back.A line can get better as you stated,but still an offense can’t play well without a decent O-line.Besides at Arizona they have good coaches,titans have good coaches.We don’t which in order for this offense as a whole to do well we need someone like Shanny or his son or maybe Kubiak.
by T.Moore on Dec 16, 2009 11:37 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
That line never made Matt Leinart better.
There’s a huge friggin reason that the Cardinals win with Warner, and suck with Leinart.
The reason: The QB position is the most important position on the field.
A great QB can make a mediocre team a competitor. And a great QB can make a good team a SB contender. Give a great team a great QB, and you’ve got a run at a dynasty. Give a great team Kyle Orton, and you’re lucky to win a playoff game.
"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)
Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)
.
by SackMan on Dec 17, 2009 10:55 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Give Orton a good D even he will have a chance
by T.Moore on Dec 17, 2009 1:42 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Give a 16-0 team Matt Cassel
And they don’t even make the playoffs.
"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)
Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)
.
by SackMan on Dec 17, 2009 1:48 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
10-6 team isnt bad.Most 10-6 teams get in and they are only the 2nd 10-6 team not to make the playoffs next to the Fins
Thats not bad to me.In the AFC who knew the Fins would be that good.The AFC has deeper teams.Put them in the NFC they would be in.
by T.Moore on Dec 17, 2009 4:28 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I thought it was 10-6
since the fins won the tie breaker
by T.Moore on Dec 17, 2009 11:12 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Hmmmm... just realized something
Someone who loves a good argument – check!
Claims victory during debates – check!
Uses a lot of unnecessary parenthesizes (which I actually like now) – check
Injects Kurt Warner and the Cardinals into arguments – check
85 Bears themed arguments – still waiting
axtheim = GeoMak, GeoMak = axtheim
Amiright?!?
-------
"Newbie, if the next two words out of your mouth aren't 'See ya' then the third word will be 'Oh my god. My crotch. You've punched me in my crotch." - Dr. Percival Ulysses Cox
by smudgers on Dec 17, 2009 6:04 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
That's it! Einhorn is Finkle! Finkle is Einhorn! Einhorn is a man!
by SJS_illini on Dec 17, 2009 7:01 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Anyone disagreeing with
“The QB is the most important position in the NFL” has to get their head checked.
"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)
Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)
.
by SackMan on Dec 17, 2009 10:51 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
So says you.
What order would you put the O-line
by T.Moore on Dec 17, 2009 1:40 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Last time I checked... the O-line was unit of 5 different positions.
The QB is the single most important position in the team sport of football. Period.
It’s why an incredibly talented and coached Super Bowl contending team like the 2008 New England Patriots, coming off a near perfect season, failed to make the playoffs when Matt Cassel took over for the injured Tom Brady.
It’s why the Arizona Cardinals high octane offense turns to mush everytime Matt Leinart fills in for future HOF QB Kurt Warner.
It’s why the record setting (least points allowed) 14-2 ’86 Bears got bounced out in the 1st round of the playoffs without Jim McMahon on the field.
It’s why the back-to-back SB Champion Denver Broncos went 6-10 the following season when Brian Griese replaced the retired John Elway.
"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)
Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)
.
by SackMan on Dec 17, 2009 2:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I guess the saying
.
“The QB is the single most important position in the team sport of football. Period”
Well “single most important” sure. When you put single in that cleared it up. “Single most” I agree with that.
But again you can’t win anything or go far with at least a decent core of
O-linemen without them a team wouldn’t be very successful it usually takes time for both a QB and O-line to get together on the same page.I never said that any QB can win with a decent line some can some can’t.
Bottom line now is this.We dont have a line,we have no running game, we are not an “incrediblity talented and coached team.” Front office who are cheap as hell and are horrible at drafts.We had all of these problems before Jay got here and he is expected to fix everything up?We have no structure or anyone that knows common sense in the coaching staff as well as Angelo.I doubt that 1 QB can fix all the crap we have now.
by T.Moore on Dec 17, 2009 4:48 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree.
But ask any right-handed QB what the most important position is, and he will say left tackle. And vice-versa for left-handed QB’s.
by GouldisGold on Dec 17, 2009 2:23 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree, khamer. Could you see if you could find that stat and post it?
I didn’t think to add that.
by ChiLobo#23 on Dec 17, 2009 4:57 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Bronco fan here
I promise I’m not here to pile on, and I haven’t read all of the comments, so if someone already caught this, then disregard my comment.
Your average int per year stat is skewed because Cutler only played in 5 games his first season. You need to either drop the year from the average, or account for the 1 pick per game average he had his rookie season. Either way his average per season rises to 17-18.
Best of luck after we make our 1st round decision.
"It's the first time that I've probably ever seen a 260 pound back run into a free safety and go flat on his back, I mean it was exciting." ~John Elway
by jibbons on Dec 17, 2009 1:38 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
That's why I included the TD% and INT% catagories in the overall analysis.
It breaks it down even further than per game. It allows you to get a purer look at their performance for that year, and allows you to draw the ultimate conclusion of “per pass, Jay had an x% chance of throwing an INT in this year”.
Otherwise, you could debate the merits of going per game, because the number of the QB’s passing attempts change game to game.
Also, it made it easier for me. I shudder to think about how much longer it would have taken to break it down in per game stats. :-)
by ChiLobo#23 on Dec 17, 2009 4:55 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I was referring to the average, not the individual seasons
I agree that int% paints a more clear picture, however the average interceptions per season is misleading to the point that I think there should be an asterisk that points out, “If you don’t count his 5 game rookie season into the average he averages 18 int per season.”
You wouldn’t need to determine per game averages at all, I simply included that to make it clear that even if you did take the time to figure it based on per game you would get something like 17.5 in his first season, which is pretty close to the rest of his season’s average.
The reason I think it matters is it shows a consistent trend of approximately 18 picks per year, rather than 14.8 which is an average affected by a small sample entry.
Maybe I’m splitting hairs, but I believe this would paint a different and more reliable picture for the interceptions per season stat. The same goes for touchdown’s as well as yards. When you look at it, doesn’t it seem weird that his expected yearly average yards is less than all of his full season yardage totals?
Come to think of it, after the other QB’s section you even say yourself, “*I tried to throw out any years a QB had if less than 8 games started. Otherwise, Young’s #s would be skewed.”
Why not do the same for Cutler to prevent his stats being skewed? Doesn’t showing one un-skewed stat and asking us to compare it to a skewed stat in-fact present a skewed view?
"It's the first time that I've probably ever seen a 260 pound back run into a free safety and go flat on his back, I mean it was exciting." ~John Elway
by jibbons on Dec 18, 2009 1:44 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Love the sig...
One of my all-time favorite football moments.
You are all gentlemen (and ladies) and good judges of cheap whiskey.
by Dane Noble on Dec 18, 2009 3:23 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, at this point, you are splitting hairs a little.
Which is fine, I suppose.
Again, I said I TRIED to throw out a season if it included less than 8 games. A few squeaked through, especially those that started 1 or 2 games or had spot duty in 3 or 4 games their rookie year. It was a quick judgement call on my part on whether starter responsibility had been given to the young QB, or whether it seemed they were put in for 1 game for an injury to the vet. In Steve Young’s case, you had about 5 years where he had 1-3 games started, but never had any solid numbers except for the years I posted.
Also, you could look at it a completely different way. If you insist on using yearly INT average, it’s also only fair to look at his other whole year numbers. In that case, it looks very good. Because while he was throwing a few more picks, he was more efficient completing passes, and had a TON of yardage.
No stat is as hard and fast as you’d like them. That’s why I took an average of lots of great QBs, and included percentages to give you, the reader, a better overall view of things to help you make your own judgement calls. If you would like, you can go to pro-football-reference.com and delve a bit further into the individual stats, to lessen any confusion you may have about my post.
If I really wanted to be a stickler, I would’ve thrown out the averages, and possibly calculated the MEDIAN stats for the star QBs. It would’ve normalized the stats a little more by throwing out those who had stellar years because they were put on a great team, and done the same for those who were on positively awful teams.
If we want to split even more hairs, we could look at it from a style comparison, in which we’d compare him to the 2 QBs he has been compared to most in his career stylistically: Brett Favre and John Elway. In that case Cutler’s numbers look WAY BETTER than Elway’s in almost every catagory, and in particular (if memory serves me) interceptions.
Again, with any complex stat line scenario comparison, you have to take stock of the whole picture, in which, to reiterate, his numbers look similar to amazing QBs of the past and present, and by looking at his INT% you can see his decision making is getting better, to boot.
by ChiLobo#23 on Dec 18, 2009 4:44 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't have enough hair to split.
Maybe I’m misreading it, but it looks like his int% has gone up, not gotten better. It had been getting better in Denver, and it has time to get worse this year, but only time will tell if this year was as simple a problem as poor coaching and trouble with a new system. I’m interested to see whether or not Chicago can find a couple of wide receiver’s and improve the O-line without their first round pick. I actually expect a much better offensive lineup for you guys next year, assuming the talent shows up in free agency.
I still think that there is no reason to count his 5 game rookie season in the average unless it is a percentage, but that’s just me.
Since you brought the Great #7 into the conversation, I’ll just point out that by the point that Cutler is at in his career (one partial, two complete and working on his third complete season), Elway was down to a 2.6 season int%, while Cutler is up to 4.8 season int% so far. To take it even further, the stat that I took issue with initially shows the difference, Elway averaged 16.25 picks a season while Cutler is averaging 18 (not 14.8) at this point.
I wouldn’t be much of a Broncos fan if I didn’t stick up for Elway on that one, but you could definitely argue that Elway’s stats should be compared to Cutler’s by comparing season’s with more than 8 games played. In which case you should count 1985 as this year’s equivalent for comparison’s sake. This view would definitely bode well for Chicago, as the year following was Elway’s breakout year as far as taking better care of the ball.
Its been good talking to you ChiLobo, hopefully I haven’t overstayed my welcome here, I know a handful of MHR guy’s have been around here trying to give you headaches.
"It's the first time that I've probably ever seen a 260 pound back run into a free safety and go flat on his back, I mean it was exciting." ~John Elway
by jibbons on Dec 18, 2009 7:28 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
That's fine, and no, some MHR posters that have posted here
have been very very helpful in their general information on Cutler, in particular, littletinybroncos. (It always helps when a conversation never devolves into “my guy is better than your guy”.
But I’m still not sure that you are getting my point. By reading your second sentence, you say “It had been getting better in Denver, and it has time to get worse this year…”
That is my point. His numbers are generally the same, and most aspects of his game had been improving from year to year until THIS YEAR. Which seems to indicate that its not him that has changed, but something else.
You are right that “only time will tell if this year was as simple a problem as poor coaching and trouble with a new system.” Which is why I wrote the post. Until time has passed, we can only look at the numbers and rely on analysis of the recent past and comparisons to other QBs to predict Jay’s future performance.
As for #7, he was the master of inconsistency and only had one year with a QB rating above 80 for his first 8 years. His int% went down for the first 4 years, went steadily up for the next 4 after that, then back down again. He also never achieved a completion% above 56 for the first 7 years of his career. Elway is definitely one comparison where Cutler looks better in most stat categories. In his first four years, he threw more INTs than TDs twice.
by ChiLobo#23 on Dec 19, 2009 12:04 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Great write up ChiLobo
Love the analysis. Jay certainly needs to be surrounded by a supporting cast that puts him in position to win. It’s not like he is going anywhere soon and I don’t want to watch him fail for the next four years. Irregardless of how it is portrayed in the media or anywhere else for that matter. Cutler needs to get what he wants within reason. If he can’t work with Pep Hamilton, or he is more comfortable throwing to a different receiver that is on our roster. Then I think that we need to let him have it his way. We didn’t bring Jay here to play like Kyle Orton or Rex Grossman, we brought him here to play like he did when he went to the pro-bowl. That means we need to surround him with the supporting cast to make it happen.
by Fridge72 on Dec 17, 2009 2:02 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Ask any unbiased fan about their opinion of the trade.
Most of them would say we gave up too much. And they are right. So far, the Broncos have really screwed us over. It’s premature to call the Cutler experiment a bust, but it looks that way so far.
by GouldisGold on Dec 17, 2009 2:17 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I'll respectfully disagree with this,
It is too early to tell. Next year if we have a winning record, at least one play-off game here in Chicago, and either Jay Cutler or Johnny Knox or both make a pro-bowl. Then I think most unbiased fans, especially the ones that truly matter in Chicago, will tell you that it was a great trade.
by Fridge72 on Dec 17, 2009 2:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Read my last sentence.
“It’s premature to call the Cutler experiment a bust, but it looks that way so far.”
by GouldisGold on Dec 17, 2009 2:25 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I read it,
I’m respectfully disagreeing with these parts:
Most of them would say we gave up too much. And they are right.
and the last sentence.
If you had just said it is premature, I would have been completely with you.
but it looks that way so far.
is what I’m respectfully disagreeing with.
by Fridge72 on Dec 17, 2009 2:34 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I think that's because a lot of fans are incapable of seeing long term benefits...
…and draft picks, in general, are overrated. Think about this theoretical scenario: If Jay Cutler was for some reason taken off the Broncos and thrown into the 2009 NFL draft, he would go #1 overall. Period. Now, we were drafting towards the lower end of the draft. If we were to trade up to get him, we’d have to give up our #1, as well as next year’s #1. It’s all on the standard draft value sheets all teams use that assigns value to picks for trading purposes. But, unlike all other draftees, we know Cutler is a pro-bowl QB. So we get that premium for just a 3rd rounder and the QB he’s replacing! Sounds like a great value to me!
Besides, its never good to evaluate a personnel move, especially one that could be considered a draft pick, until a few years after the pick has been made. We’ll have to wait and see…
by ChiLobo#23 on Dec 17, 2009 4:45 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
How can we have been really screwed over so far?
What’s Robert Ayers doing? Nothing much. We got Knox with the pick we got from them. Knox > Ayers, Cutler > Orton. Win win. So doesn’t that mean we’ve screwed them over so far? The 2010 pick is not playing so he doesn’t count, so far.
And I don’t think we gave up too much.
1. We stink in the first round of the draft. The only good are Olsen and C Williams and they’re only considered good because they haven’t completely busted yet. Denver may be able to get a full dollar out of the pick but we’d only get 50 cents so that’s what we lost.
2. We only really gave up one 1st round pick, we’d have spent one on Orton’s replacement the same way Denver will have to in the next couple years.
by SaintCee on Dec 18, 2009 12:24 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly
I can’t say that we are screwed with the deal.There were teams lineing up tp get him.I was one of the many Bear fans that says “we’re too cheap we won’t get him” right on the day we got him.I expected him to struggle this year on a new team with a new system and idiot turner (who I think should have been gone long before we had him).We dont know who we are going to get on the draft.Besides its the GM and coaching staff and ownership thats messing up this team long before Cutler coming here.
by T.Moore on Dec 18, 2009 1:26 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly.
Short term pain (draft picks) for long term gain at the QB position.
by ChiLobo#23 on Dec 18, 2009 1:27 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Hey Bears Fans!
Resident Bronco fan dropping by – but not to troll. I just wanted to discuss a few things.
First and foremost a couple of Bronco facts you may not know.
1. The pick we received from you really ended up being Knowshon Moreno. We didn’t use your pick, but it was close enough that we could pick up some offensive talent and still have a pick for Ayers.
2. Orton fits our system. I don’t think he fit yours. He’s not having a Pro Bowl season by any means, but with the two injuries (finger and ankle) I think he’s doing pretty well. I expect him to be back on a 1-2 year deal. But call him what you will, the dude is a warrior and plays hard. He may lack all the physical tools, but he’s a bright guy with a decent arm. That can get you pretty far as a QB these days.
Now let me address your Cutler scenario.
Cutler needs a coaches coach and a solid mental game coach. Even when he was with Denver I had this almost primadonna vibe from him and if you pander to it he gets pouty. I watched it a million times. I’m not saying he’s a whiny brat – quite the contrary – I think he puts the whole team on his shoulders because he is a competitor to THAT level. He desperately wants to win and when the team isn’t winning he blames himself and gets down on himself.
He’s also kind of a ‘call it like I see it’ kind of guy. He’ll call people out and sometimes its good and sometimes its not. I can see from his recent interviews he’s getting better at it. Believe me – his stats would be better with a prime receiver, but he is the focal point and any solid veteran takes all the blame himself. Cutler will mature so this is probably a moot point. But as he gains those intangibles he’ll take on a new persona. Orton came into it a bit earlier and probably had to because, while he’s underrated by most, he can’t put everything into his arm like Peyton, Favre, Brees, or Brady do. He had to develop that part of his game to win. I think Mr. Smith has put so much into this trade with Cutler that he’s handling him with kid gloves when he shouldn’t be. I don’t know for a fact, but it seems that way.
On the other side Cutler needs a developed offense. The vertical game you guys play works if you have significant deep threats and YAC monsters (Andre Johnson, Reggie Wayne, Brandon Marshall, Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald). Hester could be a top deep threat, but his route running is unpolished and his hands aren’t ideal. Knox can also be a deep threat, but he doesn’t have the large build to really posture himself like my previous examples. And I don’t think your current OC is cutting it. Cutler has proven that he’s very selective of his OCs (he was pretty pissed when Bates left) and it seems you have a run first OC thats now running a pass first offense.
Keep in mind – Forte was either your leading receiver or led your team in receptions for much of the year. This was more of “The Orton Effect” as he’s not a guy who forces it up the field. Guess what? Orton doesn’t throw a significant amount of balls to our RBs. Its all WRs & TEs. Kinda makes you think doesn’t it? So I think a majority of Cutlers struggles are a result of a) an offense with an identity crisis and b) a bunch of #2 receivers with no real #1.
I think the comments thus far have been fair so I’ll get into the slightly more incendiary comments I have.
Cutler’s football IQ is not good in relation to the QB’s you’ve compared him to. I don’t know if this can be coached or not, but Peyton Manning is his own OC. Brady is damn near a football genius. Brees is also a fanatic. I don’t put Cutler in that click. I think this is his biggest draw back. He’s always going to force one to many balls and he’s always going to make the wrong read. All QBs do this. The problem is I think he believes his arm will get him out of nearly any jam and its nearly false bravado. I don’t think he threw the ball away more than 10 times last season.
I also think if things don’t change in the next season I think he might try and force his way out. Shanahan is headed to Washington more than likely and will probably reclaim Bates. I think that combo might push him. He’s already proven he doesn’t mess around when it comes to his future. I watched the whole thing happen and he DID try and force his way out before the whole Cassel fiasco (on a side note if we really pursued Cassle we would have gotten him as the proposed trade was Cutler to Tampa, Cassel to us, and a 1st and 3rd rounder to Tampa – Cassel was traded for a 2nd round pick WITH Vrabel, do you really think the Pats would take a 2nd and not take a 1st and 3rd. Please.) But whether you agree with me or not its going to be in the back of your head. He may end his career a Bear, but as of right now I don’t see it. Who knows? Maybe you’ll trade him this year and get Klaussen, a CB, a WR, and OL. Reallistically you’d just have to trade Cutler for a 1st and 2nd/3rd to open that up for you (deep draft).
I hope Cutler does turn it around for you guys (after this season, I want a good pick) but don’t make excuses for him. Stop trying to see the diamond in the coal. There adversities on your team, yes, but look at Brees – the Saints SUCKED before he got there and nobody knew the receivers either PLUS they had a new coach. And he gave them a winning record. Good QBs do this and some take more time than others.
Verdicts still out on Cutler.
Why does Madden suck at ranking the Broncos so much?
by ChristianL on Dec 19, 2009 8:34 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
You guys probably got the better deal...
Orton is above average. He does have an arm, the Bears just never used it. When the entire stadium knows a wide receiver screen is coming, it’s tough for even Hester to make anything of it.
by 949CubsFan on Dec 22, 2009 3:14 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Peyton Manning and Brett Favre
Brett Favre threw about 26 TDs last year ? He was 39. Experienced. How many INTS ? Exactly the same as the amount of TDs he threw, right ? Not good. The more I hear about Manning, the more I notice every second game where he looks not so good statistically. To date, Cutler has not thrown 6 picks in one game like Peyton has. Neither Favre nor Manning were the finished article in their fourth seasons were they ? Cutler has never had good guidance. Every QB needs guidance.
And to Christian the Broncos fan. Welcome. Manning has had the same OC his entire NFL career. And if Orton has a decent arm then he found it on his way to Denver ….
by Irish Bears Fan on Dec 21, 2009 10:32 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Put Manning(The good one) on the Bears...
and you’d have similar results. The Bears team is not good. Lovie Smith is a terrible coach. Orton would’ve have been good enough to win the Super Bowl in 2003. Lovie costs the team 2-3 wins a year with completely stupid decisions, squib kicks etc… They’re past the point of no return. Lovie has to go. They need a line and receivers around Cutler. They need someone to replace Urlacher. It’ll be a while before they’re good again.
by 949CubsFan on Dec 22, 2009 3:11 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
What the heck are you talkin' about?
Orton would’ve have been good enough to win the Super Bowl in 2003.
You are all gentlemen (and ladies) and good judges of cheap whiskey.
by Dane Noble on Dec 22, 2009 3:16 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
maybe he means
If Orton had been drafted a few years earlier and played in 2003 and the Bears hadn’t finished 3rd in the NFCN and.. um… if Lovie Smith had actually been the coach in 2003.
Then again, you could have just blocked quoted almost that entire comment.
"Why does Jay Cutler look so bad running these awful plays behind an incompetent offensive line?" - VeryFakeAlDavis
by TrialsBass on Dec 22, 2009 7:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Whoever said that Cutler needs guidance from his coaches.
You are right.When I see him out there it looks like he’s alone out there,and I mean totally alone out there.At Denver he has Shanny to guide him,now he has no guidance at all.
by T.Moore on Dec 22, 2009 10:21 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I'm a lifelong Bears fan who's lived in Denver since 1992...
I was super excited to see Cutler go to Chicago, but also afraid of what was gonna happen. He does remind me of Favre, in that he makes a lot of wild throws. That caused him problems in Denver too, but the difference was in Denver he had B. Marshall, Eddie Royal, Stokely, Tony Scheffler, Daniel Graham, all recievers who can make plays. With all due respect, there’s just no comparison. Put him behind that horrible Bears O-line, with inconsistent receivers, add in his problem with wild throws, and… there you go. I’m not saying some of this isn’t on his shoulders, but there’s so much more going on with the Bears than just Cutler… The meltdown he’s seeing with the Bears this year was foreseeable. It’s what I was afraid of when the trade was made. Give him some protection, a running game, and receivers, and it’s really a different story. DON’T give up on this guy yet!
by John P. on Dec 26, 2009 4:33 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
A Denver Fans Synopsis on Jay
I concur with John P. I think this deal looks bad for the Bears short term and perhaps mid term. But I think Cutler will someday win and win big if surrounded by good receivers and a decent line. With limited drafts and some thin FA market the question becomes how long will that take.
To see how much impact Cutler had one needs to look at Denver this year. Our passing yardage is way down. Our yds per attempt way down. Eddie Royal a deep threat and pleasant surprise last year has been almost invisible this year.
The two players Denver got in this deal so far. Orton and the DB Alonso (Mr. Inactive) have not been star quality. This deal may hinge on the early first rounder Denver gets this year. I do not see Orton as any long term solution here. He does not have the ability to throw down field and quite frankly Brandon Marshall seems to bail him out frequently with his ability to make yardage after the catch. He does not have the arm or mobility of Jay.
Jay has his issues. He is cocky and he is a risk taker and may love his arm more than he should. But he has the raw talent to be great if surrounded by a good line that can pass protect and improves his decision making.
I think that getting high quality QB play is such a rare commodity in the NFL that this deal needs to be judged 5-6 years from now. Cutler does things that will give him staying power. He is mobile and can make throws. He needs to become a stand up guy and I see that happening this year. The guy is a competitor. He needs a solid OC and some weapons. How long it takes for the Bears to get those will decide how this trade goes down.
Denver from a WL perspective is no better than last year. The fact that is the case can basically be bestowed on an improved defense only. Many of the early 6-0 start wins very basically because the D won the game, Dallas, San Diego, Cincinnati, Oakland, etc.
For Bronco fans to gloat on Jay is misguided. Maybe they get a quality QB with the top ten pick they will receive this year and then the deal may look more one-sided. I suspect McDaniels may well be gone from here by the time this deal can be judged properly. I just do not see him being here long term. I do not see him being here past three years because the team simply does not have players to be better than 8-8 or 9-7.
by PinchHitLancePainter on Dec 27, 2009 11:13 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Our yds per attempt way down.
Jay Cutler YPA in 2008 — 7.3
Kyle Orton YPA in 2008 — 6.4
Kyle Orton YPA in 2009 — 7
Jay Cutler YPA in 2009 — 6.4
by lolcopter on Dec 28, 2009 1:43 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

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