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How the Bears can move up in the 2010 NFL Draft

With no first or second round picks thanks to the Jay Cutler and Gaines Adams deals, getting an impact rookie will be challenging, but not impossible.  The Bears need to find a way to get into the first or second round, and then of course, not whiff on the picks.  The Bears currently have one pick in the third through seventh rounds for a total of five picks.  As far as I can tell the most picks you can start draft day with is ten, but you can wheel and deal once the draft starts to get as many as you want.  The Bears need to do what ever they can to get ten draft choices before draft day in order to maximize their dealing capabilities.

Star-divide

Looking over the Bears roster you'll see plenty of players under contract that shouldn't be a part of their future.  Some players will have to be cut, but some have enough value to pick up a late round pick.  Jerry Angelo (if he's still the GM this off season) has to deal away some dead weight.  Just remember, making trades in the NFL isn't like other sports, player movement through trades just doesn't happen that often, but Angelo will have to thoroughly explore all possibilities.  And the biggest thing he must consider is he may be drafting for the last time in Chicago, so if the opportunity arises use some of the 2011 draft choices to help get some picks in 2010. 

One thing to keep in mind when dealing away some of your depth is the special teams will suffer.  But with Dave Toub coordinating that phase of the team it's a chance you have to take.  I'll speculate on some possible moves the Bears could make.

A)  Nathan Vasher has a big money deal, but could be moved because he has had some past success.  All you need is one GM to think a change of scenery could revive his career.  Someone will want a former Pro Bowl corner, and a change just may do him good.  Depending on the timing of the deal you could possibly get a fifth or sixth round pick for him.  If the Bears could squeak out a few reps at free safety for the "Interceptor" it could help his trade value or if he fills in adequately at corner for a game or two they'll see his value go up, maybe as high as a fourth round pick.

B)  I know the Bears were burned by trading away a safety a few years ago in Chris Harris, but it's clear the Bears are moving forward with Al Afalava as the strong safety.  He outplayed Kevin Payne to win the job, but Payne has starting experience on his resume.  He has some value around the league.  The Bears seem comfortable with Craig Steltz backing up SS, so moving Payne makes sense right now.  Depending on team needs this off season the Bears might end up with as high as a fifth round pick for him.

C)  With Greg Olsen winning the starting tight end job from Desmond Clark, and with the emergence of Kellen Davis as a serviceable back up, Des Clark is expendable.  Neither Olsen or Davis can block as well as Clark, but blocking is something they can improve on.  Remember Clark was a wide receiver at Wake Forest and worked to become a better than average blocker.  You need your reserve tight ends to be core special teamers and Clark doesn't fit that.  If he fully recovers from this years injuries and finishes strong he might bring you a fourth round pick.  Besides this season, he's been a reliable starting tight end for the Bears, and even though Clark is an 11 year vet he could be a starter for another team.

D)  Garrett Wolfe, currently on IR because of a lacerated kidney, is expected to be ready for full participation come this off season.  It should be with another team.  For what ever reason the Bears have never been able to find a way to fit him into the game plan.  He's excelled on special teams the last couple years and in his limited time with the ball in his hands this year he's been ok.  With Jones expected back next year in some role and Khalil Bell able to fill the special teams spot of Wolfe, the Bears need to float Wolfe's name out there to gauge his value.  At most I think they could get a fifth round pick for him, but their probably more likely to get a sixth.

The next two players I'll throw out there I really can't see traded, but you never know.  Trading away players of their stature is difficult because one side will never feel truly compensated in any deals that may get to the table.

E)  A popular name that is mentioned in trade speculation by many fans is Tommie Harris.  With his production coming no where near his contract, moving him could be next to impossible.  He has however, started playing better of late.  Here's the question to ponder; If Harris is 100% and playing like the Tommie of old do you still want to trade him?  If he has a strong finish to the year and they decide he isn't worth the risk, they could get a third (maybe a second) round pick for him if the right situation arises.

F)  Before the recent drama surrounding Brian Urlacher I never would have even considered trading him away.  But with him dropping those quotes for the Yahoo Sports piece, I could see him moved.  Now finding someone that would want to take on that contract is another thing entirely.  With his recent injury history teams may shy away from him, but there will be a few organizations that'll show interest.  If his wrist heals properly, and all indications are that it will, he could fetch as high as a second round pick.

*  Of course any of these players and any future draft choices could be used to pick up a legit number one wide receiver.  In that case, picking up a guy like Brandon Marshall or Anquan Boldin would trump any plans I touched on above.

But if the Bears do stockpile lower round picks they'll then need to be used to move up in the draft, something Jerry Angelo hasn't done much of in the past.  Using an NFL Draft Pick Value Chart, one of which every GM in the league uses, you can see the points needed to move up in the draft.  If you've never seen the chart go take a look so what I say next makes sense (well... I'll try and make sense).

There are always teams looking to trade down, whether to save on the first round draft pick contract or because of how the draft is falling they realize "their guy" will be available later.  The Bears would need between 600-900 points to get into the bottom half of round one.  Many times the team trading up will have to overpay to make the move.  I won't take into consideration any picks potentially obtained by moving Harris or Urlacher (like I said, it's unlikely they'll be moved)

OK, so in the scenarios outlined above the Bears would have their own 3rd-7th round picks plus two 4's a 5 and a 6.  I'll look at some draft day deals that could move them into day 1 (1st round) or day 2 (2nd and 3rd round) of the 2010 NFL Draft.

1)  The three 4th round picks (approximately worth 200 points) could get them into the 3rd round.

2)  They Bears could package their third and fourth round picks (about 300 pts.) and move into the lower end of round two.

3)  To get into the latter part of the 2010 1st round they could always move their '11 #1 pick and a handful of late '10 picks.  There seems to always be a team picking in the late 1st round that is looking to get out of that pick.

4)  If the Bears finish 10th worst this year their 3rd round pick (220 pts.), their 4th round pick (82 pts.), and their 5th round pick (37 pts.) could move them up to the bottom third of the 2nd round.  That 2nd plus their 2011 2nd could get them into the 2010 1st round.

5)  We'll call this the "Ditka Deal";  If the Bears trade every single one of their 2010 picks, their 3rd-7th (375 pts.), plus their 4 picks acquired in my moves above (approximately 200 points), they could jump up near the top of the 2nd round.

You can see how a creative GM could work the phones to move up.  All you need is a willing partner and the guts to pull the trigger on numerous deals.  With day 1 of the draft limited to the 1st round this year there will be more time to work the phones before day 2 and the 2nd and 3rd rounds. 

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i think you are way way WAY

overestimating what these guys are worth. on the radio yesterday, ESPN 1000, the guys asked what lance briggs might bring in a trade. he said probably a 5th rounder!

overpaid bums like harris and urlacher are literally worthless on the trade market.

Garrett Wolfe?? are you kidding me? if cut this guy wouldn’t even get a tryout from another team.

by Hatchetm on Dec 3, 2009 10:16 AM CST reply actions  

You are all gentlemen (and ladies) and good judges of cheap whiskey.

by Dane Noble on Dec 3, 2009 10:26 AM CST up reply actions  

Haha.

This picture says so much, while saying nothing at all.

I'm a firm believer in the philosophy of a ruling class. Especially since I rule. -Randal Graves

by Kev H on Dec 3, 2009 10:47 AM CST up reply actions  

???

Lance Briggs was gonna be traded to SF for more than a 5th, and he’s better now, then he was then.

GW is a phenomenal athelete, and could be used as a reggie bush/darren sproles role, the Bears just dont have the creativity/personnel to use it.

I think you should stop listening to that show

"Hey, the offensive linemen are the biggest guys on the field, they're bigger than everybody else, and that's what make them the biggest guys on the field." -Madden

by BearNecessities on Dec 3, 2009 10:32 AM CST up reply actions  

hey i'm just relaying the info...

maybe you could get a #2 for briggs, but he’s worth more to us. nobody wants the rest of our crap.

by Hatchetm on Dec 3, 2009 10:41 AM CST up reply actions  

actually

sanfran wanted to give up a first for him and harris or urlacher can defnitly get a second

I NEVER EVER WANT TO SEE BRIAN URLACHER TRADED

by Bear Lovin 21 on Dec 3, 2009 12:52 PM CST up reply actions  

Harris can't pass a physcial

and Urlacher wouldn’t yield more than a 5th-6th rounder. The only team that would be interested is contending team on the cusp of winning it all…see Pats, Colts, Saints, etc.

We're not scaremongering (nightmare of a season continues), this is really happening (Bears are more than done) - Radiohead

by propheteer on Dec 3, 2009 1:07 PM CST up reply actions  

WTF?

Lance briggs for a 5th rounder? Lance Briggs could get the Bears a late 1st round pick. Shit, the Seahawks gave up a late 1st round pick for Deion Branch!!!

by McRipper on Dec 3, 2009 10:37 AM CST up reply actions  

I heard the same thing

John Clayton is good, but his word isn’t gospel. His point was Briggs is a weakside LB in a 4-3 defense and many teams are going to a 3-4, so his value isn’t as high as Clayton thinks, plus Briggs is still viewed as a system guy.

Picking up young established NFL players (with experience on special teams) is worth late round picks.

by Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. on Dec 3, 2009 10:42 AM CST up reply actions  

I agree

I think this is very, very optomistic. I wouldn’t give up anything higher than a 6th round pick for any of these guys. As for Urlacher and Harris, no way they are traded and I wouldn’t give up more than a 4th rounder for either of them. As for Briggs, he should net more than a 5th round pick, prob a 3rd round pick at this point but the Bears are better off keeping him.

by cubman987 on Dec 3, 2009 10:44 AM CST up reply actions  

Garrtet Wolfe has 5.5 ypc

he is also great on special teams ( last season lead Bears in st tackles) so stop the hatin

by DaHamsta on Dec 3, 2009 6:44 PM CST up reply actions  

Average yards per carry only count...

if you run the ball more than 25 times in a season. It’s a skewed stat in his case. I believe Norwood in ATL has the best ypc in the league. He is NOT the best back in the league. Still, Wolfe is a decent ST guy and good #4 RB. But if he’s holding down a roster spot that keeps a great DT or WR off the roster, he’s certainly not irreplaceable.

When you find yourself in a hole, STOP DIGGING!!!

by LostInSTL on Dec 4, 2009 12:57 PM CST up reply actions  

You da man, Wilt!!

As highly unlikely as these trades are, the fact that you are creative enough to come up with them is impressive!! Do you need a GM job?

by McRipper on Dec 3, 2009 10:38 AM CST reply actions  

Player contract is a part of draft-pick value too

When stating these guys are better than such and such a round, maybe they are but with the Bears overpaying some (lots) of these people, their draft-pick round value falls too.

by TheMan1 on Dec 3, 2009 10:48 AM CST reply actions  

Everyone I mentioned except Urlacher and Harris

has a very moveable contract. Even Vasher, if he’s able to start at CB again, has a contract worthy of a starting corner.

by Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. on Dec 3, 2009 10:54 AM CST up reply actions  

Harris' contract

is pretty moveable too. He’s already cashed his biggest checks from the Bears. From Dane a while back:

2009: $620,000 + $6.67 million roster bonus
2010: $1.235 million + $2.5 million roster bonus
2011: $2.3 million
2012: $2.5 million

-------
"Newbie, if the next two words out of your mouth aren't 'See ya' then the third word will be 'Oh my god. My crotch. You've punched me in my crotch." - Dr. Percival Ulysses Cox

by David Taylor on Dec 3, 2009 10:58 AM CST up reply actions  

truly

nothing is sacred from you, if it has been posted on this site, huh?

"Hey, the offensive linemen are the biggest guys on the field, they're bigger than everybody else, and that's what make them the biggest guys on the field." -Madden

by BearNecessities on Dec 3, 2009 10:59 AM CST up reply actions  

I'm a search masta!

Actually, I just remember using Dane’s info when I posted my Random Thoughts From Week Nine.

-------
"Newbie, if the next two words out of your mouth aren't 'See ya' then the third word will be 'Oh my god. My crotch. You've punched me in my crotch." - Dr. Percival Ulysses Cox

by David Taylor on Dec 3, 2009 11:15 AM CST up reply actions  

nice

however I think he’ll stay then…

by Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. on Dec 3, 2009 11:05 AM CST up reply actions  

I think he'll stay too,

but I’m not sure how I feel about it just yet. Hurt or not, he’s been a constant underachiever the past few years.

-------
"Newbie, if the next two words out of your mouth aren't 'See ya' then the third word will be 'Oh my god. My crotch. You've punched me in my crotch." - Dr. Percival Ulysses Cox

by David Taylor on Dec 3, 2009 11:19 AM CST up reply actions  

If we already paid him, why trade him then?

If we will not get much for him and he fills a hole better than other positions?

by TheMan1 on Dec 3, 2009 11:49 AM CST up reply actions  

Is Tommie better?

I don’t know. Tommie is playing in one of the most important positions on our team and is getting eaten alive. Or, at least he was. The bad part about it is that he hasn’t been demanding the double teams and still has sucked. Whether the reason is injuries, missing practice or just not caring, he’s not performed well over the past few years.

-------
"Newbie, if the next two words out of your mouth aren't 'See ya' then the third word will be 'Oh my god. My crotch. You've punched me in my crotch." - Dr. Percival Ulysses Cox

by David Taylor on Dec 3, 2009 12:09 PM CST up reply actions  

So we are damned if we do and damned if we don't?

Can’t keep him because he sucks and can’t trade him because no one wants him?

If he is providing a stop gap or is creating a 9mm hole and others are 8 gage gunshot wounds, I guess keep him around.

by TheMan1 on Dec 3, 2009 2:02 PM CST up reply actions  

WTF?

vasher is not now and will never again be a starting CB.

by Hatchetm on Dec 3, 2009 11:16 AM CST up reply actions  

yeah,

…and neither will Cedric Benson, freakin’ bum!

-------
"Newbie, if the next two words out of your mouth aren't 'See ya' then the third word will be 'Oh my god. My crotch. You've punched me in my crotch." - Dr. Percival Ulysses Cox

by David Taylor on Dec 3, 2009 11:20 AM CST up reply actions  

point definitely missed...

all I’m saying is that a lot of people believed that Benson would never be a starting RB after we released him. Yet a change of scenery was good for him, no?

I dunno if the same could or would work for Vash, but to claim he “will never be a starting CB” is a bit premature.

-------
"Newbie, if the next two words out of your mouth aren't 'See ya' then the third word will be 'Oh my god. My crotch. You've punched me in my crotch." - Dr. Percival Ulysses Cox

by David Taylor on Dec 3, 2009 11:40 AM CST up reply actions  

Back to the draft-pick

We will not get a high pick from someone who is under achieving their salary, which we seem to have quite a few of this year, no matter what their “potential” might be.

by TheMan1 on Dec 3, 2009 11:47 AM CST up reply actions  

Nobody said high draft pick.

Wilt’s point is valid, there are teams that might take a flier on a young (and at one time Pro Bowl) cornerback for a fifth or sixth round pick.

-------
"Newbie, if the next two words out of your mouth aren't 'See ya' then the third word will be 'Oh my god. My crotch. You've punched me in my crotch." - Dr. Percival Ulysses Cox

by David Taylor on Dec 3, 2009 12:13 PM CST up reply actions  

And I do like Wilt's analysis

Just is a 6th rounder worth a former probowl corner on our side especially with JA’s history in drafts?

Well I guess maybe he could hit another Knox, late round but somehow I doubt his ability, call me cynical I guess.

by TheMan1 on Dec 3, 2009 2:05 PM CST up reply actions  

He might start this week if Tillman can't go

In the NFL all you need is a litle good tape of yourself playing good and some GM will think they can turn you around

by Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. on Dec 3, 2009 12:22 PM CST up reply actions  

I agree with some of the valuations, and disagree with others...

But I think we’re all placing way too much value on draft picks. What are we going to do after this monster trade up to the first round? Grab someone on the offensive line hopefully, but then we’re sitting there with no other picks and now we have like 9 holes on the team we’re going to have to fill with UFA and cuts.

Basically, yes our highest pick is in the third round next draft, that’s not the end of the world. We can still probably pick up a quality RT or interior lineman, and there is still plenty of value in the fourth as well.

People are playing this draft up like it’s something ungodly special, it is special. It’s the last draft where rookies are going to get paid more than current pro bowlers, call me please in at least one way that we don’t have multiple first round picks this year.

by Jacob Hayes on Dec 3, 2009 12:37 PM CST reply actions  

Clark

Isn’t he going to be an unrestricted free-agent after the year?

We're not scaremongering (nightmare of a season continues), this is really happening (Bears are more than done) - Radiohead

by propheteer on Dec 3, 2009 1:09 PM CST reply actions  

We won't move up to the first round.

There is almost no chance, especially with our first pick being in the 3rd round and a GM that likes to trade down. I would love us trading up to get an offensive tackle, but I don’t see it happening.

by GouldisGold on Dec 3, 2009 1:38 PM CST reply actions  

this was a great analysis from wilt (as usual!) ...

… but isn’t the big problem here that JA is still going to be the one picking guys in the draft?

Adding to that problem is the fact that Lovie and Co. seem to have a habit of forcing guys to play in a scheme for which they’re not cut out, not to mention playing guys outside of their natural positions. With that framework in place, I don’t really trust their talent evaluation skills enough to potentially trade away guys who can still play in order to roll the dice on a few more picks.

Wilt’s analysis is great when there are people we can trust to make defensible decisions (they don’t have to be great prognosticators, they just have to avoid picking the next Dan Bazuin). But we have JA at the helm, and it seems all too risky to give him even more picks, or even recommend that he cash in some of our 2011 picks for more immediate picks in 2010, when those 2011 picks (hopefully) might be used by a different GM by then.

by gsim on Dec 3, 2009 1:56 PM CST reply actions  

great post wilt

Many scenarios have been discussed by everyone above, but clearly a lot depends on which coaching regime remains after the season is over, and what schemes they will use.
Great info and discussion!

"I am not an animal!" - Merrick

by Maelvampyre on Dec 3, 2009 2:56 PM CST reply actions  

Great Post

I could see some of these scenerios happening. I think a team like the Pats could have interest in Desmond Clark. All in all we need to try to move up to the 2nd round of next years draft, especially with the talent that’s probably going to be there at WR and OL.

by NiqueBears on Dec 3, 2009 5:02 PM CST reply actions  

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