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Salary Cap Ramifications of the Draft - #10 Pick

With the draft coming up in the next few months, one of the biggest complaints I hear is that first round draft picks make way too much money.  Critics claim that way too much money is being spent on players that haven't done anything in the league.  To test this theory, I'll be looking into the salary cap numbers of the first ten draft picks of the past five years.  The numbers I'll be using are "Cap Value" ones found on USA Today's website here.  Up first is the #10 pick, because I want to build the excitement to the #1 pick.

Star-divide

I created a spreadsheet (which you can view here) which lists player, team, salary cap number and percentage of salary cap the player takes up.  One note is that Mike Williams' 2007 number is actually the "dead money" the Lions had to absorb when they traded him.  After going through the numbers, it looks like the #10 pick actually isn't that bad when it comes to how much salary cap they take up.  The two highest numbers are Mike Williams' 5.23% in 2007 when he got traded for sucking and being lazy and overweight and Matt Leinart's 7.44% also in 2007.  Trust me Matt Leinart when we get to the #1 pick in the draft, you're going to cry when you think about how much more you could have made.  In the first year of their deals, the #10 pick will only take up between 1.5 and 2% of the salary cap which is very reasonable.  There also wasn't one particular year in the deal where the number jumped up significally, say from year two to year three.  In Dunta Robinson's case, his salary cap percent has been fairly steady in the 2.0 to 3.0% range.  Does this mean that teams have been negotiating better with their picks?  No, it just means that salary cap has gotten a whole lot bigger.  From 2004 to 2008, it went from $80.5 million to $116 million for an increase of 44%.  Ultimately, unless you have a bust that you need to get rid of after two years, a team's salary cap isn't going to live or die with the #10 pick .

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This is a perfect place to discuss a theory of mine...

I believe the Bears of today, should view the 1st round of the draft in a similar manner to how George Allen (the Bears DC on the 1963 Championship team) used the draft when he coached the Redskins.

Allen preferred veterans to rookies, and orchestrated dozens of trades… often trading away draft picks to acquire his veterans for the “Over-the-Hill Gang.”

With the signing bonus money and cap ramifications of a 1st round pick today, I’d much rather see my GM trade that pick for a proven star-caliber player, who wants a new contract (ex: Anquan Boldin), instead of paying those millions to an unproven rookie.

Those trade scenarios might be as simple as an even swap (1st round pick for player A), or a little more complicated depending on the market value. But, by completing that sort of trade, you’re getting a proven commodity (thus reducing the bust factor), at virtually the same price and salary cap cost. Plus, there’s no NFL learning curve either, so the veteran player should be able to contribute immediately.

With the contracts so similar in dollars and years, you’ll be done with the guy in 5 years anyway.

I'm not going to even bother trying to update this sig everyday anymore... that's what the standings column on ESPN is for.
Updated on May 25, 2008

by SackMan on Feb 12, 2009 6:55 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

I agree

Unless you are a top 5 team and can wait on rookies to develop, I’d rather have a proven guy then a rookie.

Being Who You Thought We Were Since 2005!

by Adam T on Feb 12, 2009 8:28 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I agree 1000000%

But let me play Devil’s Advocate for a second. Veterans can be busts as well. In today’s NFL, most players are productive on a team because of the system they play in. We’ve seen very often a player tear it up on one team, only to look very bad on another team. I think if the Bears go that route, they need to go after a veteran who plays in a similar system that they can plug in and get immediate results.

I agree with you SackMan, just wanted to point that out. Carry on.

by McRipper on Feb 13, 2009 8:41 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I think that's more relative to certain positions within systems.

For example, I think a good WR, is generally going to be a good WR in any system he plays for. Because, when it all boils down to it… he’s playing on an island… one-on-one, less effected by certain play calling and blocking schemes.

Other positions, like one-gap or two-gap D-lineman, are likely to best fit in that system.

I'm not going to even bother trying to update this sig everyday anymore... that's what the standings column on ESPN is for.
Updated on May 25, 2008

by SackMan on Feb 13, 2009 10:36 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I definitely agree, but the key is to make sure you're still getting a guy that is young with that pick.

So Boldin if you could get Boldin, a 1 plus a 3 or 4, that would be great, but if you were getting Torry Holt for a 1, that would be bad.

But I’m sure you are talking about getting a good player that is young enough.

The best situation though is FA. If you can land a good or great OL for the same price as you would draft top 5, you should do it. Then you still have the pick.

Wouldn’t it be awesome if we signed a good OL, then traded our #1 to get a WR, then drafted the rest of what we need (DE, DT, Safety, Corner, another WR prospect)

Kick it to me... I'm open!

by #23 on Feb 13, 2009 12:51 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

C'mon #23

This makes entirely too much sense. Stop it with all this logical well-put offseason assessment nonsense.

Seriously though, this is what SHOULD happen, but won’t.

by McRipper on Feb 13, 2009 1:31 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm basically saying a guy whos' finishing his first NFL contract.

Ex: Boldin.

If you trade for a guy who’s finishing his first NFL contract, and wants to get paid. Then, you’re getting a guy who’s a 5 year veteran… probably age 26-28. And, he’s going to want a 4-5 year deal. So, you’re getting him for 4-5 years and then you part ways after that deal when he’s over 30.

If you draft a guy and give him the same 5 year deal, you’re going to have to make a decision on whether to re-sign him in 4-5 years anyway. If he’s really good, you may/may not lose him to Free Agency. If he stinks, chances are you’ve already cut ties with him.

I'm not going to even bother trying to update this sig everyday anymore... that's what the standings column on ESPN is for.
Updated on May 25, 2008

by SackMan on Feb 13, 2009 1:44 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I think

that it is highly dependant on the position beign discussed and the pick involved. Anything outside of the top ten is not a burdensome contract, and I wouldn’t trade it unless there was nobody I wanted available. Also, different positions peak at different career points, and some positions never become available while the player is still playing well.
For example, you are never going to find an LT or QB in free agency while the player is still at their peak, so you better learn how to draft them. And you aren’t likely to find a stud LT outside the first round, so you need to have your first round picks sometimes. QBs are just as often found later in the draft, because the science of how to predict who will be a good pro QB is inexact. Given the value in QBs, I would personally draft one every year.
There are other positions who just don’t last long enough in the league (RB) to warrant obtaining them via trade or FA. RB is a position I would only ever fill through the draft, and probably enver in the first round.
But other positions, such as WR or maybe safety, take so long to reach their peak production that by the time they do, you lost them to FA or have to give them a second big contract. I would agree with you that those positions are ideal to fill through FA or trade.
I would never hesitate to send picks for a known quantity impact player, unless I was really, really good at drafting.

DEJESUS!!!

by tomas21 on Feb 16, 2009 1:15 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

You are going to do 10 of these posts?

It’s cool you made a spreadsheet, but if you are really going to devote an entire post to just the history of each top-10 pick, then please start using paragraphs… my eyes won’t be able to keep up! :)

It would also be nice if we could see the 18th pick, or maybe Chicago’s history with draft pick salaries. Something tells me that we are probably very conservative with our money :)

Have the Bears ever picked in the top 10? If so, what did we do?

Things will get better as they improve...

by Dane Noble on Feb 12, 2009 7:10 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Sorry.

I just re-read my comment to you, and I think it sounded like I was being too critical.

Your post is interesting, and with there being a lot of down-time right now, we have to be creative with finding stuff to write about. Kudos to you for doing the research, and for making the spreadsheet!

Things will get better as they improve...

by Dane Noble on Feb 12, 2009 7:29 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

perfect link for ya

http://www.windycitygridiron.com/

at the bottom left under “Links:” then “General:” there is a link to draft history. or u could try that google the kids are talking about. critical is one thing, but being bossy cuz you’re lazy is another.

we know u like the reply button, but replying to yourself is overboard.

by No It All on Feb 12, 2009 7:37 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks for your insight.

Things will get better as they improve...

by Dane Noble on Feb 12, 2009 7:39 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

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