Can we still get Boldin?

I understand the interest in getting a top 10 receiver on the Bears especially now that we have a guy like Cutler but the reality is that adding Boldin who, in my mind, ranks in the bottom half of the top 10, will NOT have that big of an impact in the W/L column.

Our running game, our offensive line play, our three tight ends, our defense and our ability to maintain a top of the league ranking in special teams all rate higher than upgrading our #1 receiver when it comes to our record next year.

Look at it like this:

Our current #1 WR, Devin Hester, caught 25 passes for 350 yards in the last 6 games of the year. In that same period, our quarterbacks completed 108 passes for 1062 yards. This means that Hester accounted for roughly a quarter of the catches and almost a third of the passing yards— and that was with a gimpy Kyle Orton throwing the ball.

What do you think Hester’s production will be with Cutler who actually compliments Hester’s skills because he can get the ball down field. Combine that with another full year under his belt as a receiver— a position we all know he just picked up in 2007. My conservative estimation is that you’ll get at least a 20% pickup in production out of Hester given the new QB and the continued improvement.

This means that for a six game period his numbers would go from 25 to 30 catches and 350 to 420 yards. That is an average of 5 receptions and 70 yards per game. Extrapolate that into a full 16 game season and we’re talking about 80 catches and over 1,100 yards. What were Boldin’s numbers in the pass happy Cardinals offense? 89 receptions and 1,038 yards. And Hester is a full two years younger than Boldin.

You might argue, “yeah, but imagine if we had both of them…we’d be an offensive juggernaut.” I’d say sure, we’ll be good but remember, we are still a team built on running the football in the harsh November and December months. Moreover, we use our backs and tight ends as a major part of the passing game. So, although a Boldin/Hester combo would certainly be an upgrade, it would not make that much of a difference over a Hester/Bennett or Hester/Iglesias combo simply because there will not be that many plays that go to the wide receivers on an offense that will be running a lot and using Forte, Olsen and Clark as primary receivers as well.

For these reasons, I totally disagree that we should consider “giving up almost anything” for Boldin. Besides, I don’t believe we are in a mandatory “win now” mode as some have suggested. Cutler and Hester and Bennett and Iglesias and Forte and Olsen will be here for a long time and there is still the opportunity to pick up talent at WR next off season through Free Agency without having to give up starting caliber players on defense or offense or more first round picks.

I say we go into this year with what we have and see where the chips fall. If we determine that the lack of an elite WR is what is holding us back from the promised land then we make that move next off-season when guys like Brandon Marshall become available.