Rookie Performance by WhatIfSports.com

by MuleTrain on Jun 10, 2009 9:21 AM CDT Comment 6 comments

We've talked ad nauseum about our draft picks and ranking them, but here is one more list to go over.

A little info about the source first. Paul Bessire is a stat/numbers guy. He runs the WhatIfSports.com website and provides FoxSports.com with their stat projections. He runs 10,000 simulations of each and every NFL game and turns those into game predictions and fantasy stat projections. On WhatIfSports you can run simulated games for just about anything. A real time sink is the DreamTeams game/program. Basically, you can create your own super team from historic seasons by historic players and run game simulations against other teams at various locations with whatever weather conditions you want. I created an all-time Bears team with the '86 defense, '06 special teams, Sayers and Payton in the backfield with Sid Luckman at QB, etc. I matched them up against an all-time Green Bay team and da Bears cleaned their clocks. Wasted a whole afternoon at work doing this (hope the boss doesn't figure me out). I also played the '85 Bears vs the '07 Patriots (a more worthy Pats team obviously) and our beloved Bears were triumphant again.

Anyway, whatifsports ran an article predicting the impact of the 2009 NFL rookies. More after the jump.

In order to generate predictions for NFL rookie performance:

For the preview, we project stats for every single player and team in the league by simulating each game on the schedule 10,000 times. Coming up with statistical inputs is relatively easy for veteran players as most tend to play to a predictable performance trend as they age and take on different roles. Rookies present the biggest challenge. To come up with statistical inputs for rookies, we run a very complex set of algorithms that factors collegiate performance, role in college, strength of collegiate competition, "measurables," likely NFL role, previous performance of a similar player in that NFL role for this coaching staff and trends of similar rookies in the past. This gives us the player's projected ratio stats (expected yards per carry, completion percentage, etc.), as well as his forecasted usage for the upcoming season. From there, we can compare all rookies based on who we think will make the biggest positive impact for his new NFL team in his first year.

So the list has 3 Bears' rookies:

94. D.J. Moore, CB, Chicago (drafted 119th overall)

64. Juaquin Iglesias, WR, Chicago (drafted 99th overall)

23. Jarron Gilbert, DT, Chicago (drafted 68th overall)

He has these guys seeing plenty of playing time and in Gilbert's case, providing some valuable production. If this is true than JA deserves some major kudos for finding great value in this year's draft. As it affects the Bears, Detroit has Louis Delmas at #10 on the list and Stafford at #2. Minnesota has Percy Harvin at #4 on the list (uh-oh).

0 recs | Comment 6 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

I am a big gator fan

and Percy Harvin went to Vikings, I just hope he gets PUNKeD against the Bears!!!

by Zoro on Jun 10, 2009 9:37 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Garbage in, Garbage out, is what they say for computer models..

and obviously it’s basically impossible to predict how a college player will play in the pros – just WAy too many variables. However, I enjoyed reading your post, and it is fund to envision our new guys coming in and making an impact. I think, of the list, that Iglesius is the most ready to make an impact, and I’m still waiting to see if DJ can keep up with games consistently played at NFL speed. Gilbert is still raw, but I see him really contributing a lot more in 2010.

Because of how they calculate quality of competition in the model, D-II start Johnny Knox did not make the list. If he can figure out how not to get manhandled by physical NFL corners and doesn’t go on the DL with his first hard hit… keep an eye on him. He could be end up being special if he works his ass off to get to the next level.

by DisCUBbobulated on Jun 10, 2009 10:34 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Interesting exercise..

But, still way too many factors that were not included in his predictions.

I’ll give you one example of a major input factor that would have a ton of relevance on the impact a rookie can make: the learning curve metric. It is highly variable and would hinge on many, many things: intelligence, familiarity with the system that the rookie has left and the NFL system he is entering, the skill of his new coaches, mentorship from a vet, the rooks willingness to work hard work and study hard…etc.

by The Kaiser on Jun 10, 2009 2:06 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I would

take some stock in this if they had previous year’s data showing any level of accuracy beyond what the casual fan could have predicted.

Does it matter that they ran the simulation 10,000 times if they are still just guessing? Does guessing 10,000 times give you better numbers than me guessing once?

DEJESUS!!!

by tomas21 on Jun 10, 2009 6:49 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs