FanPost

Rookie Performance by WhatIfSports.com

 

We've talked ad nauseum about our draft picks and ranking them, but here is one more list to go over. 

A little info about the source first.  Paul Bessire is a stat/numbers guy.  He runs the WhatIfSports.com website and provides FoxSports.com with their stat projections.  He runs 10,000 simulations of each and every NFL game and turns those into game predictions and fantasy stat projections.  On WhatIfSports you can run simulated games for just about anything.  A real time sink is the DreamTeams game/program.  Basically, you can create your own super team from historic seasons by historic players and run game simulations against other teams at various locations with whatever weather conditions you want.  I created an all-time Bears team with the '86 defense, '06 special teams, Sayers and Payton in the backfield with Sid Luckman at QB, etc.  I matched them up against an all-time Green Bay team and da Bears cleaned their clocks.  Wasted a whole afternoon at work doing this (hope the boss doesn't figure me out).  I also played the '85 Bears vs the '07 Patriots (a more worthy Pats team obviously) and our beloved Bears were triumphant again.

Anyway, whatifsports ran an article predicting the impact of the 2009 NFL rookies.  More after the jump.

In order to generate predictions for NFL rookie performance:

For the preview, we project stats for every single player and team in the league by simulating each game on the schedule 10,000 times. Coming up with statistical inputs is relatively easy for veteran players as most tend to play to a predictable performance trend as they age and take on different roles. Rookies present the biggest challenge. To come up with statistical inputs for rookies, we run a very complex set of algorithms that factors collegiate performance, role in college, strength of collegiate competition, "measurables," likely NFL role, previous performance of a similar player in that NFL role for this coaching staff and trends of similar rookies in the past. This gives us the player's projected ratio stats (expected yards per carry, completion percentage, etc.), as well as his forecasted usage for the upcoming season. From there, we can compare all rookies based on who we think will make the biggest positive impact for his new NFL team in his first year.

So the list has 3 Bears' rookies:

94. D.J. Moore, CB, Chicago (drafted 119th overall)

64. Juaquin Iglesias, WR, Chicago (drafted 99th overall)

23. Jarron Gilbert, DT, Chicago (drafted 68th overall)

He has these guys seeing plenty of playing time and in Gilbert's case, providing some valuable production.  If this is true than JA deserves some major kudos for finding great value in this year's draft.  As it affects the Bears, Detroit has Louis Delmas at #10 on the list and Stafford at #2.  Minnesota has Percy Harvin at #4 on the list (uh-oh).

<em>This FanPost was written by a Windy City Gridiron member, and does not necessarily reflect the ideas or opinions of its staff or community.</em>

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