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Odds For A New Bears Receiver

Mjones_medium 

500,000 to 1  ~  Brandon Marshall - I would have pegged him as a million-to-one shot to come to the Bears, but after Jerry Angelo pulled off a little QB trade in the off-season, getting another million-to-one shot seems more likely.  But not that likely.  If the Broncos reunite Marshall with Jay Cutler, their fan base will revolt.  I'm not sure if the Bears have the ammo to pursue this deal with Denver already holding Chicago's #1 pick next year, but Marshall seems intent on getting traded, getting a raise, and moving on with his life.  I just don't expect it to be as a Bear.

Star-divide

1,000 to 1  ~  Matt Jones - Since Jones is a free agent, acquiring him would be easier than pulling off a trade, but is he really the kind of character risk Chicago would target?  I doubt it.  If you're gonna take a chance on a player with red flags, shouldn't that player at least be worth the risk?  Jones isn't a #1 receiver.

50 to 1  ~  Anquan Boldin - As soon as Larry Fitzgerald signed his huge deal, Boldin wanted a raise.  I understand Boldin's reasons in requesting his trade, I'm just not sure if the Cardinals want to move him.  Reports were the Bears made an offer (reportedly the best offer) on draft day that was declined.  As it stands now, the Cardinals can't afford to offer him much of a bump in salary even if they wanted to.  They have only about 2 million in cap space, and any extension Boldin signs would require a restructure or two from current Cardinals.  This may come down to a hold out, and Arizona calling his bluff risking him sitting out the year.

25 to 1  ~  Plaxico Burress - I can't see the Bears, or any other team, moving on Plax until the league decides his fate.  Once punishment is handed down (and he will be suspended for some length of time) the Bears may try and low ball him with a 1 year contract, but I think he'll get a better offer elsewhere.  Personally I'd rather the Bears not sign him.  Besides the usual prima-donna wide receiver attitude, he's habitually late to team meetings (he's even been late to his court hearings), there's been a couple domestic disturbances the last year, and there's this shooting himself in his leg with an unlicensed gun in a New York night club thing... that's just plain dumb.

10 to 1  ~  Signing A Remaining Veteran FA - There are few name players out there still looking for work (Amani Toomer, Joe Jurevicius, Marvin Harrison) and a few lesser known guys the Bears could sign on the cheap.  Depending on how the voluntary mini-camps and OTA's progress (someone getting a case of the dropsies, someone pulling a hammy...)  I could see a scenario where a guy is brought in to compete for a spot.

5 to 1  ~  A Cap Casualty Veteran - Once all the teams get their draft picks signed, camps get under way, and pre-season kicks off, there will no doubt be a cap casualty or two sure to catch Angelo's eye... a young guy who failed to live up to his promise or a older vet getting cut to make room for the younger, cheaper replacement.  If the Bears passing game sputters even the slightest bit in the exhibition games, I could see them looking for a quick fix.

2 to 1  ~  No Moves Made - To me the odds say nothing will be done.  Jerry Angelo has been very adamant in proclaiming the quarterback makes the receivers and not the other way around.  Early reports from the Bears paint a nice picture of the current receiving corps.  Earl Bennett has been getting raves about his camp from many Bears insiders, rookie Johnny Knox has had stand out performances, fellow rookie Juaquin Iglesias has been coming on of late, Greg Olsen has been a go to target for Cutler, and Devin Hester has been working exclusively with Jay.

What do you think, Bears fans?

GeauxBears has a fan poll up and running on this very subject.

0 recs  |  Comment 36 comments |

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Are these official Vegas odds?

Sorry if you say so and I missed it.

by rdent4hof on Jun 17, 2009 9:31 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

no

just my unofficial odds… if you decide to use them for gambling purposes, I’ll deny all involvment! ;)

by wiltfongjr on Jun 17, 2009 9:57 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks

At 25-1 Plax sounded good.

by rdent4hof on Jun 17, 2009 10:10 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I would like to put $10

on the Matt Jones at $1,000 to 1. Where do I send the money and where do I go to collect?

by Jesse07 on Jun 17, 2009 10:24 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Bring in the Stache

He’s 6’6’’, fast, and had a mustache last year. I WANT MATT JONES.

by Life as a G on Jun 17, 2009 9:39 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I want MATT JONES too. It makes the most sense business/football wise. Unfortunatley I am accepting that it is not going to happen.

I think these odds are very realistic. I would but Boldin up near BM though. I think we are in the same boat with them.

by brands735 on Jun 17, 2009 9:50 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good post. Only one beef.

It has nothing really to do with Plax but it does. 25-1 to me is too high if you are going for realistic which you may not be. Really there are only 32 teams to begin with and probably half won’t even bat an eye. Likely there are only 5 teams in the running at max. If the Bears decide they want him, they’ll be in the top 3 of possible teams.

Kick it to me... I'm open!

by #23 on Jun 17, 2009 9:43 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

5/2 ???

i’ll take some action on that…

Courage is not the absence of fear, but rather the judgement that something else is more important than fear.

by windycity72 on Jun 17, 2009 2:07 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't think so. I don't remember that,

and can’t find anything on the interwebs.

Be nice. Flag comments that you think are offensive. Use the "reply" button. Drink plenty of water. Compliment others. "Rec" comments and posts you like. Don't call people names. If you don't like someone's comment, attack the comment and not the commentor. Learn the difference in your/you're, then/than, to/too. Exercise. Relax. Stretch often. Find good in the world.

by Dane Noble on Jun 17, 2009 10:15 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm sticking w/ the 2 to 1

I don’t see anything else happening at this point. There are a ton of receivers on the roster right now and I think Angelo wants to see if his theory on QB’s making the WR comes to pass.

Ouch. Bad pun.

Hi, my name is Fred and I'm a sarcastiholic

www.sarcastiholic.com

by Sarcastiholic on Jun 17, 2009 9:59 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Good information...except.....

Plax won’t be suspended until after his court date, which thus far appears to be after the season. 1 year is a good deal, and with his situation, he knows that’s all he’s going to get. 2-1 odds on plax with the bears, 1.5-1 with the bucs.

"If God had wanted man to play soccer, He wouldn't have given us arms" - Ditka

by EricEmpire on Jun 17, 2009 10:29 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

That comes

out to a 33% chance the Bears get him, and a 40% chance the Bucs get him. That seems reasonable.

25:1 means there is a 3% chance the Bears get him. Since he’s likely to sign somewhere, and only 3 teams are known to be interested, and the Bears are one of them, that doesn’t seem very accurate.

I don’t think the original poster understands odds. Converting odds to a percentage is pretty easy.
For example, for 2:1 odds, it is basically 1 divided by 2 plus 1, so 1/3 or 33%. 1.5:1 is 1 divided by 1.5 plus 1, or 1/2.5 or 40%.

DEJESUS!!!

by tomas21 on Jun 17, 2009 10:43 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

at odds with odds...

sporting odds fluctuate depending on the action the bet is getting… in Vegas it isn’t as cut and dry as assigning a percentage to a given odd

here is a little something that can explain it better than i could…

http://www.wisegeek.com/how-do-sports-odds-work.htm

If my post were anything more than a tongue in cheek look at possible receivers, and in fact a REAL sports gambling proposition, the odds would change depending on the action… not on what “experts” decided… If the Plax bet wasn’t getting any play, the odds would actually go up, to entice people to make a wager… but if the Plax bet was pulling in a ton of bets the odds would go down accordingly

Thanks for the feedback, and for the math lesson ;)

by wiltfongjr on Jun 17, 2009 11:22 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

put the numbers aside...

and it wasn’t a bad read at all. actually, i like the way you summarized each scenario… plus if it wasn’t “tongue-in-cheek”, you might’ve gotten flagged for trolling.

Courage is not the absence of fear, but rather the judgement that something else is more important than fear.

by windycity72 on Jun 17, 2009 2:11 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wait till next a year

Jerry Angelo is in the last year of his contract…getting burned by not having any production at WR will cost him his job…Noy singing Burress will be his downfall

by bgduece on Jun 17, 2009 11:00 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

they did

and Angelo’s extension was longer than Lovie’s.

"If God had wanted man to play soccer, He wouldn't have given us arms" - Ditka

by EricEmpire on Jun 17, 2009 2:32 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Tim Hasselbeck, a former backup quarterback for the Giants, said on ESPN’s NFL Live yesterday that teams — including the Jets — would be wise to refrain from signing his former teammate Plaxico Burress. “When you’re looking at Plaxico Burress, there’s no doubt that he can be a dominant receiver at times on Sundays,” Hasselbeck said. “We’ve seen it. But with that being said, I played with the guy. I was in the locker room with him for two years. He’s a disaster as a teammate. He’s a disaster as a guy that you have to coach.”

New York Post

by brands735 on Jun 17, 2009 12:26 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes, I'll put my money

on Brandon Marshall. $100 will get me a cool $50M.

Sounds good to me.

by The Kaiser on Jun 17, 2009 11:53 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Good idea for a post wilt.

Well thought out, and well reasoned.

Be nice. Flag comments that you think are offensive. Use the "reply" button. Drink plenty of water. Compliment others. "Rec" comments and posts you like. Don't call people names. If you don't like someone's comment, attack the comment and not the commentor. Learn the difference in your/you're, then/than, to/too. Exercise. Relax. Stretch often. Find good in the world.

by Dane Noble on Jun 17, 2009 12:12 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Love this guy's confidence

This is the strong attitude/personality we needed behind center:

“Cutler disagreed with the notion that the Bears need a No. 1 receiver. “I think we got one in Devin Hester,” said Cutler, who added that Hester made some steps as a receiver last year, but this year is making giant strides.

“We got everything we need out there,” Cutler said. “I’m 100 percent comfortable with the guys we have.”"
- from ESPN.com

by brands735 on Jun 17, 2009 2:35 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

That's just pillow talk.

of course he’s gonna say that, he’s the leader of the team now. He can’t just come out thrashing his receiver’s right off the bat. He’s clowning in his head knowing we need a #1 for sure.

LET's GO BEAR's

by LasVegasBearsFan on Jun 17, 2009 10:21 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

plax it is...

Courage is not the absence of fear, but rather the judgement that something else is more important than fear.

by windycity72 on Jun 17, 2009 4:32 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm in.

As long as he doesn’t get suspended.

by rdent4hof on Jun 18, 2009 8:21 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

what?!?!?

did you get your shirt caught on the fence???

Courage is not the absence of fear, but rather the judgement that something else is more important than fear.

by windycity72 on Jun 18, 2009 8:23 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Baby steps for me.

I freakin’ despise diva receivers. BUT, if he isn’t suspended, I don’t see how a one year deal doesn’t bring more positive than negative.

by rdent4hof on Jun 18, 2009 9:12 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Odds of Bears New WR

I just don’t think the Bears have the ammo to pull off a deal for Marshall.

Sounds like Plax will likely play somewhere…not sure it will be with the Bears, but if they want him, Chicago is as likely a landing spot as any.

Don’t know when (if ever) Marvin Harrison will realize that he won’t be paid like a top WR any longer. Don’t think guys like Matt Jones, Amani Toomer, etc. are the answer either.

My suspicion is that unless the Bears go after Plax, all the Bears wideouts are on the current roster. Gotta see what Bennett, Knox, and Iglesias can do given a real chance to play.

by purplepat on Jun 17, 2009 3:33 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Ugh

A guy who shot himself in the leg, a coke head, or a wife beater.

Unless all of them get personality transplants their odds of playing next year for any team should be WAY longer.

There is no infinity button for failing in sports. At some point, things turn. They always do. - Bill Simmons

by Allie on Jun 17, 2009 5:50 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

another idea

how about drew bennet? tall (6’5’’) w/good hands, he would make any team pay for doubling hester. remember, we don’t need a home run threat, just someone who can move the chains on a regular basis.

by mr. burns on Jun 17, 2009 6:38 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

This idea I like

otherwise id say keep what we have and see how camp goes…because as was said before, cokeheads wifebeaters, and people who shoot themselves in the leg = stupid. Yeah we have a lot of rookies, but they all look like they have potential in the otas….though we will see how it goes when we start getting to the contact drills. I’d love to see what Bennett, Knox, and Iglesias can do…and what Rideau has been doing that could make cutler mention him as a good receiver..

by Pretender85 on Jun 17, 2009 10:03 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

damn good idea

Tha sounds like a very good fall back plan.

LET's GO BEAR's

by LasVegasBearsFan on Jun 17, 2009 10:09 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

this is my song dedicated to Matt jones (from that mike jones song)

You can cover all day long. Matt Jones!
But you’ll never catch Mr. Jones
He’s got a game that’s far too strong. snow blow. snow blow. snow blow
Your friends know it, that’s why you’re all alone
Chasing the man you can’t see (Matt Jones!)
So just walk away and let him be
He’s got an 8-ball so go back home Who? MATT JONES! Who? MATT JONES!
Cuz you’ll never get Mr. Jones. Matt Jones!

Camp ifuwanna, we hold you in our heart...

by ifuwannacrownem on Jun 18, 2009 11:55 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

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