How Will Forte Fare? (Poll)

by wiltfongjr on Jun 18, 2009 12:11 PM CDT Comment 45 comments

While I'm sure Chicago's tight ends and wide-outs are really excited with the new look Bears offense, I think the biggest beneficiary of the Jay Cutler trade will be someone other than the receivers. I believe the person that has the most to gain from the new threat under center will be Matt Forte.

Eight in the box from defenses will be far and few between against the Bears with Cutler slinging it. Last year Kyle Orton saw the safety creeping up the majority of time on 1st downs, on many 2nd downs, and even on some 3rd and manageable situations. Not to take anything away from the solid season Orton had, but he got a lot of his yards because teams dared him to throw. Defenses were much more concerned with slowing down the Bears ground game.

The Bears are committed to lessening the touches from Forte (and with Kevin Jones looking healthy that's a good thing), but I still think Forte will eclipse his rushing yards from last year. The Bears blocking scheme can worry about the front 7 defenders, thus giving the backs more room to operate. Any offensive coordinator will take an open field one on one situation with their back against a LB or DB any time. You want to block the point of attack, give your runner some daylight, and let their ability get you extra yardage. I'm as excited to see the Bears '09 rushing attack as much as I am to see their new look passing offense.

Poll

How many yards do you think Matt Forte will run for this year?

Less than 1000

13 votes

1000 - 1238

170 votes

1239 - 1500

245 votes

More than 1500

52 votes

480 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

I voted less than 1k,

but not because I think he will be less effective. I can see Kevin Jones getting 6-8 rushes per game, which means Forte will have maybe 10-12. I know that total is low, but I completely expect us to rush the ball siginicantly less that last year, despite what we are hearing from Halas Hall.

I can, however see Forte’s total yardage being in the 1500-1600 yard range, and pushing 20 total tds.

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by Dane Noble on Jun 18, 2009 12:23 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

10-12?!?!?

dude, even if KJ gets 6-8 carries a game, forte would get waaaaaaay more than 10-12 carries. this isn’t philly, we RUN the damn ball!

Camp ifuwanna, we hold you in our heart...

by ifuwannacrownem on Jun 18, 2009 12:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

especially when the weather gets cold

Being Who You Thought We Were Since 2005!

by Adam T on Jun 18, 2009 12:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Forte averaged 20 carries per game last year.

He wont get that this year, considering Jones will be sharing the load. Plus, like I said in my original comment, I really don’t think we’ll run the ball as much as they are letting on.

by Dane Noble on Jun 18, 2009 1:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Last year we passed a lot more than we were suppose to.

962 total offensive plays
528 passes last season – 33 per game – 54.8%
434 rushes last season – 27 per game – 45.2%

I think Lovie wants to see the rushes go up. Throw in a more affective offense as well with Cutler and you could see 30-35 rushes a game. We threw too much last year because they were stacking the box on Forte and because he didn’t have a quality backup they wanted to bring in. So they passed to give him less wear on the body.

Kick it to me... I'm open!

by #23 on Jun 18, 2009 2:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

My point is that Forte will likely see 15-20 rushes and Jones another 10 or so per game.

Kick it to me... I'm open!

by #23 on Jun 18, 2009 2:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Right

if Forte is getting 10-12 carries per game, that means Jones would likely get the same amount, and a third RB would get around 3-5

Camp ifuwanna, we hold you in our heart...

by ifuwannacrownem on Jun 18, 2009 2:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

well, you have to put other things into perspective

such as not being able to convert third downs and the fact that Orton attempted 450+ passes. Also, the bears were 4th worse in opponent time of possession, and 6th worse in offensive time of possession. if anything, successfully moving the ball through the air should amount to more carries for Forte.

in ’08 we had 434 rushing plays. in ’06, we had 503, largely due to the passing game. thomas jones had 296 carries, but was splitting reps with Benson(157 carries) at a 60-40 ratio. In essence Forte should see about 20-25 and Jones 10-15.

Camp ifuwanna, we hold you in our heart...

by ifuwannacrownem on Jun 18, 2009 2:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree 100% and

I really think he will get 1400 yards this year unless God forbid he gets injured. Everyone really seems high on KJ? I hope he does something this year to take some of the load off of Forte. I know that he came out strong in Detroit his rookie season, but seeing is believing. Pleas KJ, make a believer out of me.

Hear about the blind hooker, you gotta hand it to her.
Rex Grossman has to be a test-tube baby, cause he's not worth a f---!!!

by Bears fan 4-ever!!! on Jun 18, 2009 7:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

1400 would be nice

But I’m more worried about seeing his y.p.c. come up to at least 4, preferably closer to 4.5. Hopefully it won’t be an issue.

"Well, we didn't block real good but we made up for it by not tackling."
- John McKay

by JerBear50 on Jun 18, 2009 11:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

AGREED...

Courage is not the absence of fear, but rather the judgement that something else is more important than fear.

by windycity72 on Jun 19, 2009 2:51 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I hope you're right

that Forte will be sued less but will be more productive, but I am not as optimistic about KJones. Forte was overused last year because they had no serious pass offense and no serious backup RB. Yes, Cutler gives the pass offense an instant upgrade, but it remains to be seen if KJones can be a reliable backup.

Also, your rushes/game projections for Forte and KJones are sketchy. You predict (high end) Forte gets 12 carries and Jones gets 8, that makes only 20 rushes a game. I agree the emphasis will shift to a pass first run second offense, but I think it is absurd to think the Bears will average 20 rushes per game.

by lookingdeadred on Jun 20, 2009 10:39 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

RUNNING THE FOOTBALL

there is nothing i find more exciting on the field than watching a back coming out of the backfield and duking the first tackle and breaking upfield.i voted 1000 to 1200 because defenses will be expecting more of the passing game with Cutler. I also think Kevin Jones will rush for 1000,there is nothing better than two running backs, especially if they are different styles of runners.

by stepeo on Jun 18, 2009 12:31 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

IMO

Forte will get about the same amount of total yards as last year but will do it with 25% less touches.

by luckie815 on Jun 18, 2009 12:36 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I think that is exactly Turners plan.

I hope you are right

by rdent4hof on Jun 18, 2009 12:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

More Yards Less Carries

I can see him breaking alot of long runs because of th fact the passing game will open the running game and as it was with eight man fronts he managed that many yards I can’t wait to see him run against a defense that plays their safeties deep!

by payton#34 on Jun 18, 2009 1:04 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

If his yards-per-carry average can improve, he could be a Pro Bowler

Orton had a fine year, especially in the first half of the season, when his QB rating was in the low 90’s. However, teams probably did key on stopping Forte more than the passing game last year. With Cutler back there now, and Hester set to emerge, that should strech the field and keep defences guessing a little more. Forte should easily rush for over 1000 yards, again.

by JimmyMack on Jun 18, 2009 2:23 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

exactly

you get hester on single man coverage…go to a simple streak formation and then its devin for seven

point is defenses will have to respect who we have under center and blitz less so forte wont get the snot beat out of him again. bears philosphy is get of the bus running so i can see probably 15-20 carries forte 5-10 jones. forte will go over 1k and jones will get close..maybe 600-800

Bring back our honey bears...sick and tired of hearing about the dallas cowboy cheerleaders and the bars they go work at when they quit. cold weather + cheerleaders in skimpy outfits = lots of fun

by tomh115 on Jun 18, 2009 3:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think there will be a slight dropoff in total yards but

his YPC should definitely jump up at least a good half yard or so. Seems like not much of a reach to expect another 1000 yard season. I can’t wait to see how much K Jones has improved. As we all know we need 2 starting-type backs for us to really be effective when we get off the bus/drive down the street/head up the tarmac running.

My god training camp is 41 days too far away.

by reefermadness3 on Jun 18, 2009 3:18 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I would have prefered this poll

to be total yards, I see him being used a lot more in the passing game as a safety valve for Cutler. I’ve shaken Forte’s hands, they’re soft and big.

If you want to crown em...

by JohnnyTruant on Jun 18, 2009 7:52 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I don’t think he’ll get the 63 receptions he had last year… Orton was really quick to check down off his receivers… I think the screen game will be bigger this year with a bigger threat to go down field in Cutler… and there is always time for another poll!

by wiltfongjr on Jun 19, 2009 8:53 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Forte will be better than last year!

I’m thinking more along the lines of 1340 yards on the ground and around 500-600 yards in the passing game. He averaged around 3.9 a carry last year with most defenses stacking the box, they have to respect our QB now, I think his average will be around 4.5-4.9 a carry or even better, he has the ability, and if Kevin Jones stays healthy, he should be a very good complimentary back to give Forte his rest. He will average around 20-25 carries a game and Kevin Jones probably around 4-6, but keep in mind we will have a passing game that will be a threat this year, and Forte will be a part of that, hopefully not the team leader, but a contributing part of that. Of course this all hinges on our O-Line doing their jobs.

by touchdown bears on Jun 18, 2009 8:33 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I'd rather see...

Forte with 15-20 and give Jones the other 5 carries a game to bring him up to around 10 a game. If we do that, it should keep Forte fresher and keep the average yards per carry up. Also, it will keep Forte going strong as the season goes on. When we make the playoffs, the less carries Forte has during the regular season will make him that much more effective for the playoffs.

by ddub101 on Jun 19, 2009 10:26 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Before the Cutler trade,

I had serious doubts about Forte being able to match his production from last year. Call it a sophomore slump, blame it on Turner over using him or opposing defenses not respecting Orton by stacking the box. As soon as we traded for Cutler, all of those fears were gone.

I don’t see Forte leading the league in rushing, but I still think we will run the ball quite a bit. I could see him surpassing the 1,000 yard mark – easily and even topping 1,250 on less touches (hopefully) than he had last year.

I could see Jones accumulating some nice yards too, most coming on clean up duty though.

- Smudgers

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by smudgers on Jun 18, 2009 11:21 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Why wouldn't Forte succeed this year

Think about 8 men in the box every down last year. Now this year that one safety has to return back into coverage. Forte easily has his 1300+ yards.

by airnjp on Jun 19, 2009 1:15 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

1200 yards rushing...

Let me explain why by working backwards:

Firstly, if the Bears had one of the Best offenses of all time, they would get something like 6500 offensive yards in a season. That equates to over 400 yards per game on average.

The recently rated #1 offense in history, aka Greatest Show on Turf, averaged 445 for a total of over 7,000 yards in the regular season. Last year’s Saints offense averaged a VERY impressive 410 yards per game for a total of 6560 yards in the season. Let’s use 6500 as our starting point.

First: I reduced that figure by 5% because the Bears play in extreme weather conditions and outdoors. It is a proven fact when calculating the offensive productiveness of a team that those who play indoors and/or in more mild climates have more productive offenses.

Next, I reduced that figure by another 5% because our defense and special teams will be putting the Bears in much better positions with shortened fields. 5% is a very conservative figure.

Next, consider that our offensive and team philosopy and lack of big play wide receivers will limit overall offensive productiveness when compared to teams like the 2000 Rams and last years Saints squad. So, I took off another 4% based on these factors.

So, reduce that 6,500 Total yards figure by 14% and you get a respectable offense capable of knocking out 350 yards per game on average offense, or 5600 total offensive yards in a regular season.

This, by the way, is very respectable and would have landed us around the #9 ranked offense last year.

Now, consider that of that 5600, at least 3500 yards will come through the air— that is much lower than may were predicting for Cutler this year but again, I’m being conservative for the sake of this argument. 3500 yards would have put Cutler below Pennington and Garrard and just above Favre last year.

So now we’re at 2100 yards of rushing offense maximum.

I figure you’ll get:
200 yards from QB rushing (that’s about what Cut had last year and is normal for a somewhat mobile QB in a 16 game season.)
At least 200 yards from from receivers, full backs and Garrett Wofe/A Pete— again, a conservative figure.

Now you’re at 1700 yards to be divided between Kevin Jones and Forte.

I can’t see Jones running for less than 500 yards this year— at an average of 4 ypc that translates into 8 carries per game.

What’s left for Forte after all these conservative calculations?

1200 yards Max

by The Kaiser on Jun 19, 2009 3:49 AM CDT reply actions 5 recs

Yup

I agree with just about all of that.

The poster formerly known as Freethefro.

by MPG on Jun 19, 2009 8:55 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good job bro!

by rdent4hof on Jun 19, 2009 9:03 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nice math

and I couldn’t agree more with the outcome…

hey man, you got a j? No? You'd be a lot cooler if you did...

by ChiTown2ShineIn'09 on Jun 19, 2009 10:15 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

i thought i was being conservative on my numbers...

and i still came up with 2200+yds rushing… the way is see it, cutler threw for 300+yds 8 times last yr(halfd the season), 5 of those were for 350+yds, and then there was, of course, the 447yarder @ cleveland… i know it’s been said a trillion times but nobody, and i mean nobody is gonna’ stack the box against us jo matter who our WRs are… i think this will be the first time in a long time that we actually DO get off the bus running!

Courage is not the absence of fear, but rather the judgement that something else is more important than fear.

by windycity72 on Jun 19, 2009 10:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Excellent breakdown

That was one of the most interesting and informative posts I’ve read in the few months I’ve been on this site. Great job.

by BearFan611 on Jun 20, 2009 8:59 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Slightly OT-

but have you guys heard anything about how Forte’s looked? I’ve heard Lovie talk up everybody from Johnny Knox to Zack Bowman, but I I haven’t heard Matt mentioned. Is it just that he doesn’t need talking up, or that he pulled his hamstring early on?

Anyway, assuming he’s healthy, I’m on board for just under 1200 per game, but a higher ypc. My reasoning is twofold. First, while the Bears are going to be a much more explosive offense, I don’t think our number of plays or time of possessions will necessarily increase. We’ll probably see more gains of 30+ than we have in decades, and Matt probably won’t be involved in many of those. Secondly, Kevin Jones is the truth. A Jones/Forte tandem is far faster, bigger, quicker that the Benson/Jones pair that went to the superbowl. This year I think we’ll see a true platooning of running backs, and it’s needed.

Where I do think his stats will be hurt is in the passing game. We’re not going to see nearly as many flares to running back.

The poster formerly known as Freethefro.

by MPG on Jun 19, 2009 8:54 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I think he'll be decent

A good 1000-1200 yds with a better YPC..

by Mathias-K on Jun 19, 2009 10:17 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Forte 2009

As long as Forte stays healthy and the passing game evolves to the level I think it will, Forte is a top 5 Back. The deep passing offense will defidently open up some holes for him to run through in 2009. Gone will be the 8 in a box Defensive formations that Teams were able to confront the Bears with last year. As much as I liked Orton, teams were not worried about single man coverage with him at Quarterback. Orton could not throw the deep ball! period. Jay Cutler can and will. I look for Forte to have 1500 on the ground this year and at least 800 yards receiving. Lokk for him to have around 15 – 20 Touchdowns combined as well. He is worthy of a late 1st or early 2nd round pick in Fantasy Football.

by Gesiakob on Jun 19, 2009 6:39 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

As much as I'd like that to be true...

I just can’t see that much production coming from a single player on this offense. As I mentioned above, unless you think either the Bears are going to be a 6000 plus yardage team— which is highly unlikely given the style of football we play, where we play and what our ST and D provide or unless you think players like Olsen, Hester and Jones are basically going to way under deliver, I don’t see how this is possible.

by The Kaiser on Jun 19, 2009 9:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Let Me Explain.

Cutler is not going to throw for 4000 yards in a Bears uniform this year. The Bears play ball control Offense and time of possesion football. While Cutler will see his share of 200 – 300 yard games throwing, Forte will easily amass 100 yards a game rushing. And Forte will get a chunk of those passing yards as he catches the ball out of the backfield well. We need to bottom line this thing. In 2008, Forte faced 8 man fronts routinily and performed very well. In 2009, without 8 man fronts, his game is going to improve significantly. I’m sorry if you disagree with me but I don’t understand your logic.

by Gesiakob on Jun 19, 2009 11:06 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

No need to apologize...

for disagreeing. As far as not understanding my logic, well, I pretty much use only logic to explain my predictions in the post above. So, if you don’t understand maybe you need to re-read that.

My point is simple: You’re predicting that Forte accounts for at least 2300 yards. In a Bears offense that will likely end up with about 5600 yards, that means that one man accounts for 50% of the total production. You’re saying therefore that Jones, Hester, Olsen and Clark, Bennet, Cutler scrambling, Knox and Iglesias and everyone else who touches the ball on offense COMBINED will only match the production of one man?

I don’t understand YOUR logic.

by The Kaiser on Jun 20, 2009 12:03 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I didn’t break down the %age of yards the way you did in your engreenated comment above (it got my rec) but I, too, place him in the ~1,200 yards range, if for no other reason than we should be more effective in terms of yards per play (passing as well as running), and management have already expressed a desire not to overwork Forte again. He’ll amass stellar numbers if he touches the ball as many times as he did last season, but history shows that taking that kind of pounding catches up on running backs’ bodies.

In that sense, I hope he only gains ~1,200 yards on the ground during the regular season, otherwise (a) we’re not doing a good job of looking after him the way we need to (there’s no reason why we shouldn’t expect to make the playoffs, unless somehow we got worse as a team over the offseason), and (b) it would probably mean the rest of the offense isn’t stepping up the way we expect it to.

"They tried to take out the quarterback, and if they managed that, they tried to take out the backup." - Bears SB20 TE Emery Moorehead, on the mentality of *that* defense

by Spongie on Jun 20, 2009 2:25 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yep..

There is one other possibility which would just be a dream: a) the Bears DO do a good job of looking out for him (not overusing him) and b) the other players do step up the way we expect but Forte still delivers 1500 yards on the ground or thereabouts. That is option c) Forte rushes only around 19 times per game but knocks out a 5 yard average and winds up with over 1500 yards. In that scenario the Bears offense is probably going to be knocking out over 6000 yards in total offense on the season. That would be something to behold.

by The Kaiser on Jun 20, 2009 4:20 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh, true. I’ll expect that next year, with an offense that’s had a year to gel (and WRs with a year’s experience under their belts) and our drafting a talented offensive lineman who can start from day one.

"They tried to take out the quarterback, and if they managed that, they tried to take out the backup." - Bears SB20 TE Emery Moorehead, on the mentality of *that* defense

by Spongie on Jun 20, 2009 5:08 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't understand your math

2300 is not 50% of 5600.

As for Forte accounting for 2300 yards, I agree, that seems way on the high side. Your projection of 1200 rushing seems likely, especially if KJones contributes this season. Receiving, I think Forte will get around 300-400 yards about like last season. Cutler will be looking downfield so hopefully the biggest jump in receiving yards will be with the WRs and Olsen.

by lookingdeadred on Jun 20, 2009 10:48 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

My Logic

Forte hits 2000 all purpose yards in 2009. Between 1200 – 1500 rushing, between 400 – 800 receiving. We are not that far apart Kaiser.

by Gesiakob on Jun 20, 2009 1:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I hope your numbers are wrong

as they would mean that Forte is out there for far too many plays and will have an abbreviated career.

BTW, 1200-1500 yards rushing is very possible, but there is no way Forte gets close to 800 yards in receptions … no way at all.

by lookingdeadred on Jun 21, 2009 9:52 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

2000 Combined Yardage / Forte

I stand behind my statement of combined yardage. We will see.

by Gesiakob on Jun 21, 2009 12:12 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

2000 total yards

would indicate to me that they were overusing him. I would prefer to see him more in the 1200 rushing and 300-400 receiving, with KJones getting about 500 rushing and maybe 150-200 receiving.

by lookingdeadred on Jun 22, 2009 8:54 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs