The Bears Pass Coverage was Good in 2008
by shawndgoldman on Jun 25, 2009 11:20 PM CDT
40 comments
So after reading wiltfongjr's excellent piece on the cover 2, I quickly realized the numbers back up and expand upon one of his main points, using the 2008 Bears as an example. Namely, pressure on the passer is a key to the success of the cover 2 defense.
If you look at the breakdown they have at footballoutsiders.com, you'll see that the Bears had the 7th-best D in the league, according to both their DVOA stat (5.5% better than average, see here for an explanation of how FO arrives at these numbers) and their weighted number (2.5% better than average). Their rush D was particularly good -- 16.5% better than the average team -- and was the 5th-best in the league. Their weakness was against the pass, where they were 3.3% worse than average, and only ranked 11th in the NFL.
Now, if you look at the numbers they had against different types of receivers, they actually did quite well. They did better than average against #1 WR's, #2 WR's, "other WR's" (i.e. 3/4/5), and TE's. They only were worse than average against RB's (where they were pretty bad). This may lead you to ask how they were below average against the pass, if they were good against everything but RB's, who don't get many passes thrown their way. The answer is simple, and right on the page those numbers come from: DVOA of defense against receivers does not include sacks or passes with no intended receiver listed. To put it another way, the problem was the Bears simply allowed too many passing plays to turn into pass attempts; they didn't get enough sacks. The numbers also bear this out as the Bears were horrendous at rushing the passer. They had a sack rate of, 5%, which was 6th worst rate in the league. This was the case despite the Bears high blitz rate. This blitzing was also probably part of the reason the RB was successful catching passes out of the backfield, as it was often the OLB's blitzing, who would otherwise be responsible for wrapping up the RB after the catch.
If you ask me, the Bears need to upgrade their pass rush this offseason more than anything else on D. When you blitz the passer and don't get pressure on the QB, you're going to have trouble in coverage no matter your scheme; that's not on the secondary, it's on the D-line. And if this happens when you're playing the cover-2, the problem is accentuated. The passing D was a problem last season, but it wasn't the secondary or "coverage" that was the issue. Rather, the problem was the D-line and the pressure (or lack thereof) on the QB. They didn't really make any big acquisitions in terms of pass-rushing D-linemen this offseason. Hopefully, Rod Marinelli can turn improve the talent they already had.
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Thanks for the Plug!
I agree it’s on the D-Line… I’m hoping Alex Brown can finally max out, I think he has the potential to be a double digit sack guy
by wiltfongjr on Jun 26, 2009 8:48 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm hoping for Alex to have a big year, too...
and the Bears don’t even have to be tremendous at rushing the passer, at least not in terms of total team sacks. What they need is to have an average sack rate, but a below average blitz rate. If they can do that and maintain the rush D and coverage they had last season, the D will be dominant again.
by shawndgoldman on Jun 26, 2009 12:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
the Bears have never had great pass coverage
their defensive philosophy has always been to rush the passer. Adding Marinelli and drafting Gilbert are indications of doubling down on this philosophy. only problem is this does not work on every play and is less effective against smart QBs capable of calling an audible/hot route. Unfortunately between Vasher and Tillman we have allocated as much $ as we are willing to spend in the secondary. Aside from adding an elite player like Peppers there is not much the Bears can/will do to improve what is already a spectacular line in both starters and depth… btw who are our safeties? I
While I agree that the performance of our D Line will be a great indicator of our teams overall success, it must be noted that the secondary is without a doubt this team’s weakest link.
by No It All on Jun 26, 2009 9:23 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Julius Peppers
= resigned to carolina
by DaCoach85 on Jun 26, 2009 12:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd love them to get a guy like that, too...
but they’re few and far between. I had been hoping they’d spend a first-day draft pick on a pass-rushing lineman… but am happy with what they got, instead. :-) I’m also happy to see they got a couple athletes that Marinelli can hopefully mold into successful pass rushers.
by shawndgoldman on Jun 26, 2009 11:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
harris is supposed to be him...
healthy??? he’s, IMO, one of the 3 best in the league…when healthy!!! i hate to say it, but unless somebody else steps up, our season depends on his play.
Courage is not the absence of fear, but rather the judgement that something else is more important than fear.
by windycity72 on Jun 27, 2009 3:06 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
And I wouldn't bet on him being totally healthy throughout the season
so it’s tough to predict our D’s play based on that.
I'M A MAN! I'M 23!
by ChiFan13 on Jun 27, 2009 8:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
All about the $$$$$$$
Are any of your lineman going into a contract year? It just seems like it’s an extra motivational tool, reguardless of what team you re talking about.
by davis0169 on Jul 1, 2009 10:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
and I think Anderson is in his last year
by wiltfongjr on Jul 2, 2009 8:36 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Really?
I don’t remember that. I was thinking just Ogun.
Izzy was, but signed (good move and good deal)
Where could we go to find out about Anderson?
by rdent4hof on Jul 2, 2009 8:51 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mark A. is due to make around 500k this season,
and is a free agent next year.
LSU Tigers Baseball... NCAA National Champions- 2009.
by Dane Noble on Jul 2, 2009 9:37 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I really don't think the secondary is the weakest link...
although I do agree that FS may be the single weakest position on the team. But the Bears have more than enough depth at CB (Tillman, Vasher, Graham, Moore, Bowman, McBride, Manning) and at SS (primarily Steltz and Payne). But FS is a weakness, which is why the team is trying Steltz, Graham, and Manning there. They simply don’t have a “true” FS, and are trying to make one out of a guy from another position. But 3 of the 4 positions are locked down by guys that are good fits for the system. In today’s NFL, that’s not a weak link.
I’ll also say those hot routes were a lot more successful last season in part because of all the blitzes the Bears ran. If you don’t blitz as often, you have more guys to break up or wrap up the receiver on those quick slants.
by shawndgoldman on Jun 26, 2009 12:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
depth at CB
“But 3 of the 4 positions are locked down by guys that are good fits for the system.” that is code for barf.
locked down – hope not.
good fits for the system – instead of ya know plane old good.
Tillman is the only legit starter on that long list. Vasher gets paid like a star but hasn’t played like one for awhile. I think Payne does have potential.
by No It All on Jun 26, 2009 2:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
What?
So you want to sign defensive backs that would be good for ANY system? Go ahead, waste your $$$$. Also, it’s hard to argue with the results on D in Lovie’s tenure.
by shawndgoldman on Jun 26, 2009 11:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
This was my suspicion throughout the season
Thanks for doing the work and finding the numbers to support. Good stuff.
We have every right to dream heroic dreams. Those who say that we're in a time when there are no heroes, they just don't know where to look.
Ronald Reagan
by snley on Jun 26, 2009 9:40 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Well done, nicely supported Post..
I have a strong memory of opposing quarterbacks having a ridiculous amount of time last year – and that will always make secondaries look worse than they are. Looking in more detail at the D Line, I wonder if the core problem was that our DT’s just didn’t create persistent penetration and draw blockers? It’s hard to sack on an end rush if you have two guys blocking you.. Who will step up in the middle this year?
by DisCUBbobulated on Jun 26, 2009 1:41 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Thanks!
… and I have the same memories. Usually, it would start with a blitz that would get picked up perfectly by the opposing line, following by some choice words out of my mouth… followed by a long completion and more choice words out of my mouth.
Hopefully, it’ll be Harris and Harrison clogging up the middle this year. It’s hard to say how much this team will improve in this area. They haven’t brought many new guys in except a couple draft picks that we won’t know much about for at least a couple months, and are banking on coaching changes upping the play level of guys already on the roster.
by shawndgoldman on Jun 26, 2009 11:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
agreed
While I am concerned with the safety situation, the main source of the secondary’s problems last season was the lack of pressure generated particularly by the front four. Harris has to get back to be the Tommie Harris of old, or the front four will not generate much pressure. If Harris can recapture past glory, then the DEs will be able to generate more pressure off the edge. Guys like ABrown and Ogun lack the ability to create pressure on their own.
A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject.
--Winston Churchill
by lookingdeadred on Jun 27, 2009 10:26 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Excellent Post Shawn!
Regardless of Defensive line play, I think experienced Quarterbacks can shred the Cover 2 Defense. They will audible and throw to spots when recognizing where Defensine players will be prior to the snap of the ball. It’s not complicated really. They go to the film room. Review footage from the 2006 Superbowl run and look for tendencies of the Defense during the season being played. You see, the N.F.L is ever evolving. A chess match between Defensive coordinators and Offensive coordinators. The only problem is somebody forgot to tell Lovie Smith he needs to evolve.
by Gesiakob on Jun 29, 2009 2:34 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
any experienced qb
can shred any defense with time.
no matter how much evolution you see it still always comes down to pressure. there is not a defense in the world that won’t break down after 7-10ish seconds.
by mike b on Jun 29, 2009 11:21 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I agree
it’s all about time in the NFL, you give your QB time to read a defense and he will
by wiltfongjr on Jun 29, 2009 11:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
good post
Like any other defensive scheme, cover-2 can be exploited by a talented QB if there is no pressure, and that is what happened last year to the Bears. It was not a failure of the cover-2, it was a failure of the pass rush.
A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject.
--Winston Churchill
by lookingdeadred on Jul 1, 2009 9:35 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You Got Me Then!
I guess Gus Ferotte will shred us again this year! He didn’t shred the Lions for as much as he did us though………………………………………
by Gesiakob on Jun 30, 2009 9:20 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
pressure, pressure, pressure… if the Bears don’t get pressure, any journeyman QB will make plays
by wiltfongjr on Jun 30, 2009 10:55 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If he has enough time
A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject.
--Winston Churchill
by lookingdeadred on Jul 1, 2009 9:36 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
He didn't have too.
Forte just kept running and running and running . . . .has he stopped yet?
by davis0169 on Jul 1, 2009 10:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
So Your Point Is?
That the Quarterback should be under pressure every play. In an ideal football world, it would be nice if that existed. I’m sure every team in the N.F.L wants to pressure the Quarterback every down. I think my football I.Q has gone way up now! Thank you!
by Gesiakob on Jun 30, 2009 3:49 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Yes Mike.................
wilfongjr has really opened up my mind………………..
by Gesiakob on Jul 1, 2009 1:35 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Yes, but...
…explain to me why there always seems to be so much separation between the receiver and the Bear defender(s) on every play. I am assuming that part of the answer is our ‘bend don’t break’ Defensive scheme, but I have to believe that some of the blame lies on our defenders ability in coverage. The Cover-2 has gaps, of course, but doesn’t this throw up flags on all areas of our pass coverage for anyone else?
- Smudgers
"Newbie, if the next two words out of your mouth aren't 'See ya' then the third word will be 'Oh my god. My crotch. You've punched me in my crotch." - Dr. Percival Ulysses Cox
by smudgers on Jul 1, 2009 8:47 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
That's the Tampa 2 for you!
Bend but don’t break!
by davis0169 on Jul 1, 2009 10:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bend Don't Break Philosophy...............
I believe this Defense is a Bend don’t break type of Defense. It is strong against the run and has the aforementioned gaps that can be exploited. As stated in some of my previous post, it has seen better days. I am not suggesting Lovie Smith completely abandon his Cover Two Defense. I’m suggesting he tweaks and disguises some of the coverages merged with different scemes. Thus allowing the Bears Defense to not be so predictable from the other side of the line of scimmage. And I agree Smudgers, players out of position happenned a lot last year. And I think that has more to do with an Offensive Coordinater putting bodies where defenders are not present then it does player personal.
by Gesiakob on Jul 1, 2009 9:30 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
last year the Bears didn’t run their version of the Cover 2 as often as years past, they blitzed so much and gave to big of cushions to the wideouts
With Lovie taking charge and Marinelli, hopefully, whipping the line into shape they will get back to more Cover 2. This team has the personnel built for the Cover 2 and needs to get back the basics of that defense…
by wiltfongjr on Jul 1, 2009 10:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I can't wait...
To see how Zack Bowman plays this year. I think he will have a HUGE year and hope he is in the lineup for years to come.
by Bearsguy34 on Jul 1, 2009 3:11 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Bowman would have been a 1st round pick if not for injuries
If he is finally healthy, he will be huge boost to the secondary. DJ Moore will be another plus this year.
A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject.
--Winston Churchill
by lookingdeadred on Jul 3, 2009 11:37 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
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