Devin Hester - Over / Under
by Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. on Jun 27, 2009 1:03 AM CDT
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On Jeff Dickerson's June 23rd blog on ESPN Chicago he writes about some time he spent on the "Waddle and Silvy" show last week when the three of them came up with an over / under for Devin Hester's receiving stats for 2009. I'm already on record as saying I think Hester will get about 70 catches for 1000+ yards, so their over / under intrigued me.
65 receptions, 1000 yards, 6 touchdowns
OK... I'll take the over, the over, and the over. Hypothetically speaking of course, gambling is illegal! I just think Jay Cutler has the arm to put Hester in positions to make plays. Not to knock on Kyle Orton, but he didn't have the zip on his passes like Cutler and DB's were able to get on the receivers quicker. With Cutler's arm strength those little zero routes to Devin should give him more room to operate, the deep balls Orton couldn't connect on will find Devin's hands more often, and the crossing patterns will hit Hester in stride allowing him to outrun the defense.
What does everyone think? Do you like the over or the under? Do you like some of the overs or all the unders?
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let me guess
Hypothetically speaking of course, gambling is illegal!
you also never slice
I was told that I ruined this house with my anger
sorry i didn't mean to strike through your quote
i meant to block-quote it.
I was told that I ruined this house with my anger
not sure what is "hypothetical" about it... i think wiltfongjr needs either
a bookie, or a program…
Courage is not the absence of fear, but rather the judgement that something else is more important than fear.
...
I have had a few gambling posts haven’t I?
by Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. on Jun 27, 2009 11:05 AM CDT up reply actions
i'm just sayin'...
Courage is not the absence of fear, but rather the judgement that something else is more important than fear.
by windycity72 on Jun 27, 2009 12:09 PM CDT up reply actions
I'll Bet over on all 3
He is in his 3rd year, and is going to have a better feel on how to play his position. He has the speed to get seperation from most of the corners in the NFL, and now has a QB who can get him the damn ball. I think he will have better numbers in the earlier part of the season due to the fact that he gets absolutely no respect as a WR around the league, so teams won’t put double coverage on him in the earlier games, that will change as soon as they realize that the Cutler to Hester hook up will be hard to stop in man to man coverage, leaving our very capable TE’s and our backfield to have some games with some impressive numbers. Hester will end up with around 85 catches, 1140 yards, and 11 TD’s
by touchdown bears on Jun 27, 2009 7:20 AM CDT reply actions
something about respect
it has to be earned not given away freely by fans. Untill Hester can prove what you guys all seem to think on the field he’s nothing more than a GREAT return man.
Dude,
He improved through out the season last year. Yes, some folks are getting carried away with his projected numbers, but most are not.
" Untill Hester can prove what you guys all seem to think on the field he’s nothing more than a GREAT return man." Your quote
Really NOTHING more than a great return man. I suppose Danieal Manning and Ellis Hobbs would be equal the threat that Hester is?
I suppose Danieal Manning and Ellis Hobbs would be equal the threat that Hester is?
What, are we adding them to the WR corps as well? o_O
"They tried to take out the quarterback, and if they managed that, they tried to take out the backup." - Bears SB20 TE Emery Moorehead, on the mentality of *that* defense
K
I see what your saying and I am a fan of Hester but you guys are trying to say that a 5’11" rec. who has never had a chance to SERIOULY play the position is going to throw-up some serious #‘s. He does not have the size to be that good, he does have the speed and the intangibles to be that good, but the second he isn’t in motin he is going to be getting Jammed by every corner he faces, do you really think he can get off of a jam at the line with his size? thats all i’m saying, I realize that with his speed and a QB that can definitely throw the deep ball that it’s a reason to be very optimistic but come on Hester would be better suited to b a #2 or #3 rec instead of a #1 cause if he is your #1 that means he’s facing the other teams #1 DB and they are usually just as fast as the rec.
I gotta disagree davis
I view Hester right now as a poor man’s Greg Jennings. (Though in a year or two he could be just as good as him) There is only an 8 lb difference between the two and Hester is faster and more agile then Jennings, and Jennings doesn’t have a problem with getting jammed at the line. Strength also plays a factor in this as well, and I don’t know the strength of either player, so that kind of is an unknown variable.
by packallday555 on Jun 29, 2009 3:53 PM CDT up reply actions
what is the dif maker?
Is the only differance in your opinion QB? And if thats the case do you feel that with the addition of Cutler will put Hester over the top.
One of them
That’s one difference. Jennings also is a better route runner then Hester is at this point, but eventually that will improve and that’s why I say he could be just as good as him a year or 2.
by packallday555 on Jun 30, 2009 6:39 PM CDT up reply actions
i think yards will be lower
and td’s a push. over on receptions. although i see him as sort of a big play only guy, so maybe its a better chance of all three over or all three under.
i see him as sort of a big play only guy
Very astute. I’m with you on that one, though I can’t predict which way it’ll pan out.
"They tried to take out the quarterback, and if they managed that, they tried to take out the backup." - Bears SB20 TE Emery Moorehead, on the mentality of *that* defense
Interesting
I don’t necessarily disagree; I’m just trying to figure out who else picks up the slack. I could see Olsen and Clark getting some receptions, but it’s tough to predict the rookies’ impact.
I'M A MAN! I'M 23!
Knox has been getting raves all through the OTA’s and then Iglesias started coming on… I think Olsen will be a Pro Bowler
by Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. on Jun 27, 2009 8:54 PM CDT up reply actions
Agreed
I think Olsen will definately be a probowler! I love what Devin will bring, getting the ball in space and flat out flying past everyone. Provided he stays healthy, he’ll definately be a #1! Still, we have to factor in the ground game and the TE’s. I’m also hoping for some PR TD’s to shut up all the haters that questioned his top selection as the Return GOAT on NFLN (Sayers was #7!?!) Still, whether I’m right or wrong, I’m hoping over, over, over!
To both of ya
I could see Olsen being a Pro Bowler.
I guess my overall point is that I don’t even know how to predict Hester’s success when we don’t even know who will be starting behind him/how good they’ll be. I know Olsen will probably get more play this year, but we’ll need someone else besides our #1 TE to perform.
I'M A MAN! I'M 23!
i keep thinking
of the 20 yard outs and button hooks ortman could never hit olsen on. i can’t wait to see those connect, i think even if hester’s role amounts to hester running deep on flys and hook/slant and go’s; taking a safety with him every play one of these guys from the wr pool should get some good numbers. one of these guys have to be able to catch. i’m strangely not that worried about it.
True
You bring up good point, and I’m not worried about either.
It seems from the media reports that Cutler and Olsen have chemistry, and I’m sure it’s the same with Hester. I’m just wondering how many of those routes Hester just bombs deep that opposing teams bite on Olsen and Cutler hits Hester deep. Regardless, one of those two will benefit greatly. Having a solid TE and a fast WR is a win-win in my mind.
I see the playbook open up a little bit with Cutler. I don’t see Cutler bombing it deep when he’s in trouble like Rex did. At the same time, I don’t see Cutler checking down to the short route like Orton does.
I'M A MAN! I'M 23!
WORD!!!
Courage is not the absence of fear, but rather the judgement that something else is more important than fear.
Olsen and Hester will play so well off each other… pick your poison!
by Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. on Jun 28, 2009 11:30 AM CDT up reply actions
quick question guys
you all want to say Hester is going to be the shizznit at the WR position, why isn’t he even the top rec on your teams depth chart he’s #3. I can’t say that I’ve ever seen a #3 wr make the pro-bowl. And I know that it’s off-season and all and things are going to change as the season gets closer but a #3 going to the probowl????
what depth chart? a pre training camp one on a website?
and who cares? there’s been a couple of minor changes to the team, so i think people are expecting a different year than last year.
yeah
that’s the one I was refering to, and I know that things are going to change as the season gets closer, andyou can’t argue that Hester has blazing speed, But with that speed and that fact he will be on the field a whole lot more getting hit and with his size the Bears better put him in motion cause at 5’11" he is going to have a very hard time when every team is going to jam him on the line.
Hester is a starter along side Bennett… he started last year, I don’t think he was demoted?
by Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. on Jun 28, 2009 6:21 PM CDT up reply actions
He can get 2 of 3
Not sure he’s a 60-70 reception guy yet, since he’s not a natural receiver I think he will drop more than we want.
by Sam Householder on Jun 27, 2009 11:27 AM CDT reply actions
i dont see him getting more than 6 touchdowns
devin hester is only 5’11" and short receivers are never touchdown machines
steve smith only had 6 tds last year, and i dont see hester being at smith’s level yet
yet!
I remember seeing Berrian telling hester what to do on his routes
by Humble Swagger on Jun 27, 2009 2:11 PM CDT up reply actions
QBs probably prefer to throw to bigger targets in the red zone, but in Hester's case, speed kills.
Before the Bears signed Cutler, one of the biggest knocks on Orton was not being able to connect with Hester consistently on deep routes. Now, with Cutler, Hester will beat people on the long ball and generate some TDs just because he’s capable of getting past the coverage.
hold on puppet
in reguards to Steve Smith remember he had to sit out a few games and he missed quite abit of training camp last year, I also don’t see Hester being on the same level as Smith especially when he’s only 5’11" but he is Lightning in a can.
Ryan
Do you think that Hester will be able to put up #‘s like Smith had only a few years ago where he had over 10 TD’s?
I doubt it
I just think that being 5’11’ isn’t a huge disadvantage. Smaller WR’s have been doing pretty well the last couple years. I don’t think Hester will get more than 8 td’s tops. Steve Smith is a lot better than Hester but that is who Hester should try to play like because the have similar skill sets. I just hope Hester proves his criticts wrong and blows up this year otherwise it could be a frustrating season.
This will be a break-out year for Hester
He will join the 1000 yard club and have a chance to get back to the Pro Bowl. I say he’s over on all 3 categories.
Hester is gonna break out
I think the addition of Cutler will help him a ton. Hester runs the slant routes very, very well, and with Cutler zipping it in there instead of Orton the D won’t have time to catch up. He also will catch many more deep passes because of Cutler’s arm strength and ability. I think he will be over in all 3.
ahh finally my chance Packman
If the Bears send Hester over the middle like you seem to think they will do, how long do you think his 5’11" frame will with stand taking hits by not only big bad LB’s but hard snot knocking Safeties? I told you I wanted to but heads with you.Hesters only real chance is if the Bears can keep him on the outside on go-routes or quick hitting WR screens.
+1
The only reason I make this statement is lets look at our division for a min. Your Packers still have a very good secondary, reguardless of the new 3-4 scheme. The Vikings still have one og the better D’s in our division. And no one knows; not even us Lions fans; what we are going to have snce we have all new corners and heck an entirely new D-fence from players to coach’s for tat matter, The Lions also have a new Safety; remember his name guys DELMAS; he is a snot knocker already and the coaches love this guy so much we have already started toget rid of the prior fools that couldn’t tackle a dead man.
Good point
I know he is little, but I don’t know how much that necessarily matters. Jennings is only 195 lbs. and a lot of the slants he catches he turns into big gains because of his quickness. I guess I should clarify the type of slant I’m talking about. When I say slant I mean more of the type of slants we run, which are ones that are in between the LB’s and behind them as well. Hester is 190 lbs. and is even quicker and more agile then Jennings.
Did you by chance watch the Bears vs Vikes at the dome last year? I believe it was a Sunday night game. Hester had a little slant route that he turned into a 65 yard td. He got behind the LOLB, and then made the MLB miss, and from there no one was catching him. I think we will be seeing a lot that this next year. I agree though, more of his yards will be to the outside.
by packallday555 on Jun 29, 2009 3:22 AM CDT up reply actions
yeah
You are right there, I didn’t realize that Jennings was only 190 lbs and he is also only 5’11’. And I guess he has a QB that has the ability to get him the ball, so round 1 to you packman. I take back what I said about Hester’s size cause you really can’t teach true speed, I guess I m being bias cause he killed me last year in my FFL league as my #3 rec.
Haha
Ya, I feel you there about your FFL league. Don’t you just hate when players don’t seem to produce for you?
by packallday555 on Jun 29, 2009 3:54 PM CDT up reply actions
Last years WR's for my team
I had the last pick in the first/and 3rd rnd. And 1st picks in 2nd/4th rnd.Moss in the first rnd. T.O. on the turn pick. 3rd rnd Roy boy williams (I’m a homer so what) then Hester on the swing pick. I picked 4 WR’s right off the bat cause all the top RB’sand QB’s went prior to my picks.I got so screwed with those 4. But then my dark horses at RB all panned out for me. Turner was my first RB taken, Forte was my second, Chris Johnson as my 3rd. . . ended up trading him for a QB later in the season. And y 4th was Slaton in Texas.
Haha
Ya i took TO too. He did good but not nearly as good as he’d been in past years. I took Harrison, hoping he would bounce back…we all know how that went. But I got Roddy White as a dark horse guy and he really panned out for me.
by packallday555 on Jun 30, 2009 6:41 PM CDT up reply actions
over on all 3 isn't much of a stretch
I think 65 receptions is a bit high, but i would put money on a prop bet giving him 10 TD’s. Can’t wait to see the long ball this year!
Hester
first must learn to catch a dam good ball, i don’t see defenses letting him run down the field all day long unless the rest of the receiver’s have good post moves or a really good button hook. I think the Bears will own the middle. 57 recs. 820 yds . 8 T.Ds.
Hester will Score Alot
With just watching film on how easily he flew by defenders last season, the ball never found its mark because of the inaccuracy of one kyle orton this season he’ll be scoring alot just look at the schedule Hester will make alot of plays, cause speed is something that isn’t taught and not everyone has 4.3 speed.
Is It Too Early to predict
That our first offensive play from scrimmage of the year will be a play-action fake deep pass to Hester for like 70 yards and 6 points.
by Sam Householder on Jun 28, 2009 7:05 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Here's the deal............
Daniel Manning over 5 Touch Downs combined Punt Return/Kick return. Hester over 65 receptions, over 6 touchdowns, under 1000 yards. But not by much. DAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA BEARS!
2/3 As a packer fan
I think he will be viewed as Donald Driver has been for us (although Hester is faster and maybe has even more raw talent) and he may be double or triple covered causing less on yards or TDs though with Cutler at the helms who knows?
Cutler Improves All Receivers
It really won’t matter who we line up at receiver. Cutler throws a rope every time and hits guys in stride. Anybody who is a receiver in this league will benifit numbers wise with him at the helm.
Hester
will make more money then M.R. & be a better Bear . And in our thought’s long before u think of M.R. . Hester is already one of the greatest
Bears of all time.
I find it interesting that NO ONE
Has mentioned your rookie from Oklahoma anywhere on a post about WR’s. Doesn’t anyone feel good about him? He had a pretty darn good year last year in college, for a damn good Offence.
We've talked plenty about him.
Just not on this one thread (which is about Hester). Honestly though, it’s easy not to focus on one rookie WR when you have as many guys that we have who have never played a down in the NFL.
LSU Tigers Baseball... NCAA National Champions- 2009.
He's got..
The potential to be though. Probably the fastest guy in the league, if not one of the fastest, and one of the most agile in the league. Plus, the addition of Cutler only helps him more. He will probably be a lot like D. Jackson only he is faster and quicker then him.
by packallday555 on Jul 4, 2009 12:46 AM CDT up reply actions
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