NightLink: Fantasy Football- Matt Forte Overvalued/ Overrated?

Different people have different feelings about fantasy football; some people feel that it takes away from watching a football game objectively, and that it makes it easier to root for different players rather than certain teams. Others say that they can both enjoy fantasy football as well as be faithful to their favorite team.
I happen to fall into the latter group of folks, and being obsessed with statistsics and trends, can hold my own when it comes to playing in fantasy football leagues. Sometimes, you run across some people who can really make a solid case for drafting a player that might not look good on paper. And sometimes, a good argument can be made against drafting someone who looks great on paper.
All of this being said, are there any people out there who would say that Matt Forte is an overvalued or overrated player? Sure, I can think of some Packers, Lions, and Vikings fans who would say it, just because their natural response to anything Bears-related is "They suck". But honestly, objectively, could Forte be viewed in that way?
Well, in order to not steal ChiFan13's "Cretin of the Week" label, I'm going to call this bozo the Dufus of the Day, as he tries very unsuccessfully to make Forte out to be, in not so many words, a fantasy bust for the upcoming season. I'll list out some of his reasonings after the jump, but make sure you read the entire article, and let us know what you think.
He’s a nice back, but many of us who saw him play last season would not say he’s a top-tier, stud running back. I think players who are taking him at his average draft position (ADP) will regret it at season’s end when he’s compared with other running backs.
Sadly, I thought last season may eventually be seen as one of his best.
I see newly acquired quarterback Jay Cutler not doing as many checkdown passes as Kyle Orton did.
I look for the team to open it up more and for the receivers and tight ends to see a jump in their receptions. That will come at the expense of Forte.
The KFFL team stated it best when they pointed out that he failed to rush for more than 70 yards in seven different games. Also, his 100-plus yard games came against some weak teams last season. Specifically, they were the Indianapolis Colts, Detroit Lions and St. Louis Rams.
Would any of you be concerned with drafting Forte in say, the top half of the first round of your FF league? How many RBs are better than Forte in the NFL?
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I dunno about you
but, Im going with him as my first pick…if he is still there. I think he has the potential to have just as many, if not more yards this year on less carries due to the fact that he wont see as many 8/9 man fronts.
Also, he will pay off as a receiver too since he is always involved in the passing game. I pick 3rd in our draft, and, since clearly AP and Turner will be first, i think i can get better numbers with Forte. No way I’m not picking him first.
Great post!
First off:
Matt Forte is EVERYTHING i dreamed of him being when he was drafted. He is THE MAN, and I’d take him with the no. 1 pick overall in an instant. But that’s because I’m a bears fan and I would start him even in week 2 ;)
Realistically, I think we all can agree that he did well, 1200yds. But he needed a lot of carries to get there. There were guys who did just as well with fewer carries (Chris Johnson) and guys that just ran so much more (AP + The Burner). I can’t honestly say that Matt Forte is a superstar. Take away the three SOFT 100yd games mentioned in the article, and we would not be looking at such a great statline..
On the other hand, I acknowledge that he will have the opportunity to shine with Cutler and (hopefully) a better line in front of him. I’m optimistic, but I too think that #2 overall is a bit high..
Bear Down!
Yes man.
He is a rock and only going to get better imo.
Hear about the blind hooker, you gotta hand it to her.
Rex Grossman has to be a test-tube baby, cause he's not worth a f---!!!
by Bears fan 4-ever!!! on Jul 7, 2009 6:56 PM CDT up reply actions
This year will be a positive adjustment
I am a die hard true Bear fan, and been playing fantasy for good while now, and I see this year as a positive adjustment. The addition of Cutler will indeed open up things for the receivers, which will also open up the running game for a more balanced attack. Forte should see far less 8 man fronts giving him more opportunity to show what he really can do. He may not catch as many passes out the backfield as last year, but his running yardage should increase. He has the power for goal line situations, deceptive speed, and great vision. With the upgrades to the line he will probably average around 4 yards a carry. And his ability to catch out the backfield will still get him the receptions. A very versatile weapon for the Bears.
Look at the number he had with Orton. Not saying Orton is a bad QB, but he didnt allow the Bears to open up the playbook as Cutler will to stretch the field. That is a RB dream to see normal fronts. And Forte has the ability to exploit normal fronts and but up big numbers in fantasy.
I like Forte a lot but...
He’s not an elite back. He’s very good, but I don’t see him as pro-bowl caliber. He’s basically in the next tier down in my book.
You have to look at it objectively...
Michael Turner is probably the safest bet, especially in a PPR league.
AP is going to score a boatload of points, but is oft-injured and his point total goes from 30 one week to 1 the next. still worth the 2nd overall pick.
But, and this is true for both PPR and regular leagues, who offers you more than Forte at 3rd overall? Maurice Jones-Drew has always been part of a 1-2 punch. Who knows if he can carry the load himself? Marion Barber will be splitting with Felix Jones, and most teams in the league run 2 backs.
And i know the Bears promise to give Kevin Jones a heavier workload, but theyre not gonna take away much from Forte’s value. Playing the pass is such a big part of his game, and I’m sure Cutler would rather move the chains than toss an INT.
People can doubt him all they want, but the guy broke off runs, PURE runs, with 8 men in the box. I don’t see how he doesn’t increase his rush yards this year when they have to play the pass.
"If God had wanted man to play soccer, He wouldn't have given us arms" - Ditka
Very true.
And to build on that, let’s think about Forte’s contribution to the receiving game for a minute. Last year, he certainly was a check-down option for Kyle Orton… and Jay Cutler will most definitely not need to check down as quickly as Kyle did.
But, the addition of Cutler to our offense by default will open up the playbook. It seems like to me there will be less check-downs to Forte, but more designed plays for him as a receiver, as he is an awesome dual threat.
So, fantasy-wise, he should still be a top RB, with his contributions coming from both running the ball and receiving- his receiving yards will just be more designed than last year.
Side note: I’m drawing this up for a future post, but I completely expect to see both Jones and Forte in the backfield this season. The possibilities with Cutler extending plays, Hester drawing double teams, and Olsen softening up the LBs and DBs… and then having to account for Forte AND Jones… well, it should be fun to watch. :)
LSU Tigers Baseball... NCAA National Champions- 2009.
and Jay Cutler will most definitely not need to check down as quickly as Kyle did.
…[Forte’s] receiving yards will just be more designed than last year
True, but isn’t one of the perceived marks against Cutler that he has a tendency to try to sling a ball into impossibly tight spots? I don’t know what the Denver RBs were like for receptions (and I appreciate that there were quite a few of them, due to injury) but, with WRs who are probably less potent and no big target who can go up and grab a tossed-up ball, I can see our RBs catching more dump-off passes than people might think, just to keep the chains moving and avoid being intercepted.
"They tried to take out the quarterback, and if they managed that, they tried to take out the backup." - Bears SB20 TE Emery Moorehead, on the mentality of *that* defense
Nice thing about Cutler...
he’s only been in the league for 3 seasons, and only played in 2 full seasons. We have a QB who has All-World talent, and still has an entire career ahead of him. For all of his “marks” against him, doesn’t it feel good knowing that there is all the time in the world to grow out of those bad habits? :)
LSU Tigers Baseball... NCAA National Champions- 2009.
Yes, as fans we've never had that luxury.
"A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject." -Sir Winston Churchill
Not from the way some Broncos crybabies have been going on about him :-D
"They tried to take out the quarterback, and if they managed that, they tried to take out the backup." - Bears SB20 TE Emery Moorehead, on the mentality of *that* defense
Tight spots
Remember he had a terrible defense in Denver. ALL NFL QB’s have been guilty of taking risks, when having a useless defense.
I almost think he's worth 2nd overall
Just for leagues that count receptions. Forte had 50 some catches, AP had 31 and 0 receiving TDs and Turner only had 6 recs. So LT and Forte are probably the only top-tier backs who catch a lot of passes.
by Sam Householder on Jul 7, 2009 10:28 PM CDT reply actions
LT would be worth somehting
but the cry-baby is ALWAYS whining about something, and these days, especially when you need him most, you will find him on the injured list…
I think Jackson, Gore, and Westbrook would disagree with you
"Well, we didn't block real good but we made up for it by not tackling."
- John McKay
Touche
I could not think of any more off the top of my head. MJD, Kevin Faulk, Westbrook, Marion Barber, Reggie Bush, LT and Steve Slaton all caught 50+ passes last year.
by Sam Householder on Jul 7, 2009 11:27 PM CDT up reply actions
Depends on the League
I am apparently one of the few who does think Kevin Jones will be receiving a larger chunk of the workload – Forte did have an absurd amount of touches. If you’re in a league that counts receptions for RBs, then he’s a first round pick. If it doesn’t, I probably wouldn’t touch him until the 3rd round.
With the prevalence of the 2-back system, I don’t see the necessity of going RB-RB in rounds 1/2 last year, so some QBs should probably find their way ahead of Forte as well.
That being said, if he rushes for 770 yards and 4 TDs and the Bears go 13 – 3, do we care if he’s a fantasy stud or not?
Is Clint Hurdle fired yet? YES
Is John Paxson fired yet?
Is Ralph Friedgen fired yet?
Is Vinny Del Negro fired yet?
Is Dan O' Dowd fired yet?
Is Jerry Angelo fired yet?
I think he's going a little high
I would place him more towards the late first, however that’s more because of my aversion to spending high picks on second year players than it is a criticism of him, though his YPC does worry me a little. Granted, your draft is a crap-shoot regardless of the player, but I always worry about that second year drop off. I have to admit though, the first round (at least RB wise) is looking pretty muddled all around this year, at least to me. There are so many concerns with age and injury, it’s making it real hard to read the field. I’m hoping I end up with a late pick, cause I want no part of the top of the order this year.
"Well, we didn't block real good but we made up for it by not tackling."
- John McKay
late first, early second round
I drafted Forte in the 5th round last year and it paid off huge dividends as I already had Westbrook and Addai. Last year we knew Forte was going to be a focal point of the offense – both running and passing – because frankly, there was no one else you could really count on to get tough yards.
This year will be different. We’ve got upgraded at QB and the WRs and Olsen will get more touches. Forte is still going to get 20 carries, but you have to figure Jones will steal at least 5 to 10. Forte won’t get as many receptions, but I think he’d get 30-50 — that may be high.
Fantasy speaking … Turner, Westbrook, Johnson, All-Day, Gore and Tomlinson are still your go-to backs. Forte falls in line with Chris Johnson, LenDale White, Slaton, etc. He can be a starter in deep leagues, but he’s not elite status yet.
Evil will always triumph, because good is dumb.
Yeah, I think Gore is in for a big year.
I did the same with Forte last year too. Also grabbed Slaton in the next to last round, and a couple guys laughed at me. Not for long though.
"Well, we didn't block real good but we made up for it by not tackling."
- John McKay
who will get the goal line carries?
If Jones is the short yardage back then I could see Forte slipping to the 2nd round, but if Jones will just be taking a few more series here and there, Forte is a 1st round pick
by Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. on Jul 7, 2009 10:55 PM CDT reply actions
You even need to ask??
McKie, bank on it, 25 attempts for 1.3 yds and 1 TD
(Asshole Sr) "If you learn one thing here, NEVER pass out in Ohio."
1.3 yrds total, not a doubt in my mind
(Asshole Sr) "If you learn one thing here, NEVER pass out in Ohio."
I can't see Jones being a goal line type guy.
He’s too much of a dancer, and too injury prone. I think Forte would be better suited to handle it. He’s more of the head-down-and-pound-it type. And I’ll let someone else get their comments deleted for the obvious “ugly chick” joke that should follow.
"Well, we didn't block real good but we made up for it by not tackling."
- John McKay
by JerBear50 on Jul 8, 2009 1:58 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
My first LOL today
Loose Lucy is my delight She comes running and we ball all night
Where did the Dead reference come from?
"A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject." -Sir Winston Churchill
I'm a fan too
One day I decided, whenever I really like something JerBear had to say (enough to respond). I would also accompany my response with a little Dead material. You like The Dead?
Moreso in the ninties and during college
I’ve kind of moved on from them, but still enjoy their music every once in awhile. Their shows were some of my favorites at old Soldiers.
"A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject." -Sir Winston Churchill
Me too
I was 17 when Jerry past and though I was fortunate enough see The Dead a couple of times before he died. I wasn’t about to let myself get stuck on a band that I could never see live again. Live shows being the best thing about that style of music and all.
I don't know about his assessment
The offensive line is improved, as well as the QB position. In addition to that, Hester and Olsen have another year under their belts. I’m certainly keeping Forte in my league, cause it’s a PPR. He’ll have more openings this year than last.
FYI- I drafted him in the 5th round last year. So he was definitely underrated.
"A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject." -Sir Winston Churchill
A little advice please
I’ve been playing fantasy for close to ten years, but I’m a little stumped in my keeper league. I have AP (all day), Forte, Slaton, and Warner or Rodgers. I obviously plan on keeping the first two. If everyone could step in my shoes, who would keep as your third player? I’m debating between Warner or Slaton. It is a PPR league. Let me know what you think. Thanks!
"A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject." -Sir Winston Churchill
Warner
It’s a tough choice but with two good backs already go for the starting QB.
by Sam Householder on Jul 7, 2009 11:49 PM CDT up reply actions
That's what I was thinking
I’m just nervous about his durability concerns. Thanks.
"A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject." -Sir Winston Churchill
Keeper League? Definitely Slaton.
You get a solid, young RB on the up-swing who also has good hands. Warner gives you an old QB with injury questions, and who knows how many seasons left. And the chances of him replicating what he did last season are not good. I’m afraid I just can’t condone keeping a Packer, no matter who it is. As a matter of fact, I’m kinda mad that you even have him on your team at all. Damn you man, damn you right to Wisconsin.
"Well, we didn't block real good but we made up for it by not tackling."
- John McKay
I was offered him in a trade
one that I couldn’t resist, cause at the time I didn’t have a viable backup to Warner.
"A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject." -Sir Winston Churchill
Yeah, Im just playin.
I try to avoid taking players from any other NFC north teams, but I guarantee I’ll snatch up Jennings or Johnson if they slip at all in the draft.
"Well, we didn't block real good but we made up for it by not tackling."
- John McKay
unfortunately
you need to keep rodgers. unless AP and forte’s byes are the same week you can pick up a backup RB later. as for warner, you know what happens to super bowl losers the next year, right?
Lol
Their QB turns 38 and their WR starts acting like Chad Sillylastname?
LSU Tigers Baseball... NCAA National Champions- 2009.
Rodgers
I may have to keep him, but I agree I’m not happy about having him and AP on the same team.
"A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject." -Sir Winston Churchill
Dude
Warner is old, Slaton is your keeper. You’d be silly not to. Especially in a PPR league, he’s going to outscore Warner.
"If God had wanted man to play soccer, He wouldn't have given us arms" - Ditka
Slaton
You answered your own question when responding to Galloping. Perfect bye weeks for your RB’s. Don’t pass that up!
Good trouble to have:-}
Forgot to mention
There’s a flex position in my league as well, so Slaton doesn’t have to sit at all (except his own bye).
Done and Done! Thanks…
Definitely a good problem to have. I outscored everyone in the league by 150 points or so in this league, but in the playoffs everyone got cold.
"A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject." -Sir Winston Churchill
With a flex
that RB stable should serve you well. Good Luck!
Ugh, I hear ya
I floated between 1st and 2nd almost all season and tanked in the playoffs. Ended up in 6th or 7th.
"Well, we didn't block real good but we made up for it by not tackling."
- John McKay
Forte
If you give any back as many touches as he had you’ll get some kind of production. But, great running backs average 4-5 yards a carry. He was around 3.5 maybe that translate to mediocre.
Yes..
but he also had a mediocre line last season and a QB who couldn’t spread the defense out. He has the ability(if you were coherent for most of those games), just watching him last season proved that..he can cut or pound the ball downfield, he has hands covered in glue, and he’s also a very good solid blocker on run fakes. He’s not AP by any stretch of the imagination as far as running the ball, but he gives you more versatility in the backfield instead of a 1 cut, can’t catch a ball with sticky gloves kind of runner.
























