By the numbers: How Cutler stacks up to the NFL's All-Time best
by SackMan on Aug 17, 2009 12:59 PM CDT
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I'm getting rather annoyed with arguments trying to convince others that Jay Cutler isn't all that good. And, when numbers are thrown around to back these arguments, people somehow ignore the most evaluation worthy statistics, and instead cherry pick something to bash. So, I've decided to give you a comparison on percentages amongst the all-time leaders. It's a much better sample size for comparison that any argument that's already been given around here.
These QBs all have had long successful careers, as it takes longevity to achieve these numbers. Because of the longevity, it's unfair to simply look at flat numbers like total yards, TDs, and INTs for comparison. However, we can look at percentages per pass attempt to give a better comparison.
The main career numbers we'll focus on here are:
- Completion %
- TD % (percentage of TDs per pass attempt, higher # is better)
- INT% (percentage of INTs per pass attempt, lower # is better)
- QB Rating
We'll focus on the total career numbers, instead of just highlighting the QBs best years, while in their prime. This will allow us to factor in the lesser stats in their early years (while developing) and in their later years (while in decline due to age). Having the lesser stats averaged in, will help us draw an even better comparison overall to a QB who's only played 3 seasons thus far (years 1 and 2 could be considered Cutler's developmental years).
Here are the numbers of the NFLs All-time Top 10 Passers
All numbers are courtesy of Pro-Football Reference
Top 10 All-time Passing Leaders (Yards)
1. Brett Favre | 65,127 | COMP% = 61.6 | TD% = 5.0 | INT% = 3.3 | QB RATING = 85.4
2. Dan Marino | 61,361 | COMP% = 59.4 | TD% = 5.0 | INT% = 3.0 | QB RATING = 86.4
3. John Elway | 51,475 | COMP% = 56.9| TD% = 4.1 | INT% = 3.1 | QB RATING = 79.9
4. Warren Moon | 49,325 | COMP% = 58.4 | TD% = 4.3 | INT% = 3.4 | QB RATING = 80.9
5. Fran Tarkenton | 47,003 | COMP% = 57.0 | TD% = 5.3 | INT% = 4.1 | QB RATING = 80.4
6. Vinny Testaverde | 46,223 | COMP% = 56.5 | TD% = 4.1 | INT% = 4.0 | QB RATING = 75.0
7. Peyton Manning | 45,628 | COMP% = 64.4 | TD% = 5.6 | INT% = 2.8 | QB RATING = 94.7
8. Drew Bledsoe | 44,611 | COMP% = 57.2 | TD% = 3.7 | INT% = 3.1 | QB RATING = 77.1
9. Dan Fouts | 43,040 | COMP% = 58.8 | TD% = 4.5 | INT% = 4.3 | QB RATING = 80.2
10. Joe Montana | 40,551 | COMP% = 63.2 | TD% = 5.1 | INT% = 2.6 | QB RATING = 92.3
I've bolded the best numbers of all 4 categories. It's no surprise that Peyton Manning leads the top ten in 3 out of the 4 categories. He is simply proving to be one of the best ever, and while those numbers are sure to average down as he ages, his current accomplishment is amazing. Also, in comparison, Joe Montana's numbers are absolutely incredible... add in the SBs and MVPs, and he should have more consideration as the best of all time, when having that discussion.
One QB not on this list who I'd like to highlight is Kerry Collins. A poster in another thread, Doc's Sports Predictions Guy, argued that Jay Cutler's ceiling is merely Kerry Collins. Well, Collins is the #14 All-Time leading passer in NFL history. Not too shabby, but let's take a look.
The stats:
14. Kerry Collins | 37,393 | COMP% = 55.7 | TD% = 3.3 | INT% = 3.2 | QB RATING = 73.8
More on Collins vs Cutler below, but first... let's add up the combined averages of the NFL's Top 10 All-Time Passers
COMP% = 59.3 | TD% = 4.6 | INT% = 3.4 | QB RATING = 83.2
Now, let's compare our Chicago Bear QBs to the combined averages of the Top 10
Jay Cutler | COMP% = 62.5 | TD% = 4.4 | INT% = 3.0 | QB RATING = 87.1
Rex Grossman | COMP% = 54.2 | TD% = 3.4 | INT% = 3.6 | QB RATING = 70.2
Kyle Orton | COMP% = 55.3 | TD% = 3.3 | INT% = 3.0 | QB RATING = 71.1
And, just for kicks, let's throw in the last QB the Bears traded away a 1st round pick for
Rick Mirer | COMP% = 53.3 | TD% = 2.4 | INT% = 3.7 | QB RATING = 63.5
So, what do we get here? Once again, I've bolded the best numbers in the comparison.
Jay Cutler's current numbers after just 3 seasons are better in 3 out of 4 categories, among the combined career averages of the NFL's All Time Top 10 Passers. Cutler's TD% (4.4) was two points less than the combined average (4.6). However, that 4.4 was better than 3 of the top 10 (Elway 4.1, Testaverde 4.1, and Bledsoe 3.7). Cutler's completion % and QB rating trail only Manning and Montana.
Cutler's numbers also bury Kerry Collins' career numbers in every category. Collins has a career 55.7 completion %, and has had only 2 seasons out of his 14 years, where he completed more than 60% of his passes. Cutler's gone 59.1%, 63.6%, and 62.3%. If that trend continues, it will render the two QBs as bad comparisons. Not only that, but the styles of play are different. Collins is more of a statue pocket passer, and Cutler is an escape artist who buys more time to extend the play.
On the flip side, Rex Grossman is the only QB on this list who's INT% (3.6) is higher than his TD% (3.4). And, both Grossman (54.2) and Kyle Orton (55.3) wouldn't crack the top 10 in Completion %.
Now, can we put all this garbage to rest? Newsflash: Jay Cutler's a pretty darn good QB. We're not talking about Rick Mirer here.
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Comments
Thanks for the post
Well thought-out and written.
At the very least, all of the preseason warriors will have to read and not post anything stupid for 5 minutes.
I'M A MAN! I'M 23!
Good stuff as usual Sackman.
I too am tired of the drivel. While some will continue to argue, I’ll just point to this post and call it a day.
I'm teaching fools some basic rules.- MR.T
From a Bronco Fan
This is a good post. Cutler has the abiltiy to be a great quarterback, and I wish him well, just not against the Broncos. He has some personality flaws that are a bit troubling, but his upside is much greater than Orton.
In the long term, whether the trade was a good trade will depend as much on what the other players Denver received do as on what Cutler and Orton do. It is just too early to tell, but I suspect both teams will be happy in the long run. Cutler is one hell of alot better than he showed in the first game, and Orton will not throw three picks every game.
Orton's a servicable QB, and I certainly wish him well.
However, I predict new competition will be brought in to challenge him next year. He’ll have to keep earning his job going forward.
"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)
Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)
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Contract year for Orton
The Broncos will have to show a great desire to resign him if he does well enough.
"A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject." -Sir Winston Churchill
Oh... yeah... forgot about that.
He might not even be back next year. Although, I don’t think he would play soooo poorly, that they wouldn’t re-sign him. They could possibly draft a QB in the 1st round, and have Orton keep the seat warm.
"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)
Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)
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I'd Like To Revisit Your Post
In about 5 years. And then hopefully you will be a man and admit you were wrong. Thanks.
Geisa is just stating an opinion
Shared by many people paid for their opinions, that maybe Jay Cutler has a great arm but not the leadership to deliver enough W’s.
Geisa Kob has been picked on, pushed around and downright disrespected for far too long on this site without a defender. This is a job for DOK.
by Defender of Kob on Aug 17, 2009 3:20 PM CDT up reply actions
Admit I was wrong about what?
Did I make some bold prediction that I’m unaware of?
I merely provided some statistical references that compare how Jay Cutler stacks up to the best QBs of all-time. And not surprisingly, he stacks up very well. My entire post was a list of current statistics, otherwise known as facts…. those numbers can never be wrong.
Maybe you should go back on vacation… permanent vacation.
"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)
Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)
.
The interpretation of statistics is what can, and often is, wrong.
Geisa Kob has been picked on, pushed around and downright disrespected for far too long on this site without a defender. This is a job for DOK.
by Defender of Kob on Aug 17, 2009 3:18 PM CDT up reply actions
I agree
It’s concrete evidence you’ve shown here Sack. I’m pretty sure they’re going to talk about Cutler’s intangibles as an argument on why he’s not as good as these other QBs.
"A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject." -Sir Winston Churchill
Did you get hit in the head by a golf ball?
Upset about Vick? Or is it the Favre thing?
I'm teaching fools some basic rules.- MR.T
by Ditkavsworld on Aug 17, 2009 2:00 PM CDT up reply actions
Welcome back GK
You are not alone any more.
Geisa Kob has been picked on, pushed around and downright disrespected for far too long on this site without a defender. This is a job for DOK.
by Defender of Kob on Aug 17, 2009 3:21 PM CDT up reply actions
Why are you replying to me?
And I thought I’d seen it all and now this. How many usernames do you need Geisa? Or is this Geomack?
I'm teaching fools some basic rules.- MR.T
by Ditkavsworld on Aug 17, 2009 3:32 PM CDT up reply actions
Unless they have multiple personality disorders
I cannot under any circumstance think that GeishaKob and GeoMak are the same. :)
"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)
Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)
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oh god
he’s created his own superhero?
"If God had wanted man to play soccer, He wouldn't have given us arms" - Ditka
And the pic i had didn't come up...damn
(Asshole Sr) "If you learn one thing here, NEVER pass out in Ohio."
LOL
Funny thing. I can see this pic on my work computer but not at home. NICE JORB!!!
I'm teaching fools some basic rules.- MR.T
by Ditkavsworld on Aug 18, 2009 8:27 AM CDT up reply actions
I can't see it...so does it count as a fail or half fail?
(Asshole Sr) "If you learn one thing here, NEVER pass out in Ohio."
Hmmmm
I guess half fail since you can’t see it.
I'm teaching fools some basic rules.- MR.T
by Ditkavsworld on Aug 18, 2009 2:18 PM CDT up reply actions
Now I really wanna see the pic!
Come on ThorCo, get this worked out… :)
- Smudgers
"Newbie, if the next two words out of your mouth aren't 'See ya' then the third word will be 'Oh my god. My crotch. You've punched me in my crotch." - Dr. Percival Ulysses Cox
by David Taylor on Aug 18, 2009 2:21 PM CDT up reply actions
http://lh4.ggpht.com/_GOmPrpO5INs/SonZ6O2ya9I/AAAAAAAAACc/UJXLsBqdJ2c/Defender%20of%20Kob.jpg
thats the link to it.
"If God had wanted man to play soccer, He wouldn't have given us arms" - Ditka
I get a google error on that link, hmmm....
My work doesn’t usually block stuff, I’ll check back when I get home.
- Smudgers
"Newbie, if the next two words out of your mouth aren't 'See ya' then the third word will be 'Oh my god. My crotch. You've punched me in my crotch." - Dr. Percival Ulysses Cox
by David Taylor on Aug 18, 2009 2:51 PM CDT up reply actions
I got a block too...and its my pic lol
(Asshole Sr) "If you learn one thing here, NEVER pass out in Ohio."
It worked for me.
You guys just want to use my work computer?
I'm teaching fools some basic rules.- MR.T
by Ditkavsworld on Aug 18, 2009 5:04 PM CDT up reply actions
Too funny.
At home, still got nothing. Oh well.
- Smudgers
"Newbie, if the next two words out of your mouth aren't 'See ya' then the third word will be 'Oh my god. My crotch. You've punched me in my crotch." - Dr. Percival Ulysses Cox
by David Taylor on Aug 18, 2009 5:16 PM CDT up reply actions
Ha!
I had given up. And then you come through on the last attempt. Hilarious. Kudos to the creator.
- Smudgers
"Newbie, if the next two words out of your mouth aren't 'See ya' then the third word will be 'Oh my god. My crotch. You've punched me in my crotch." - Dr. Percival Ulysses Cox
by David Taylor on Aug 18, 2009 5:53 PM CDT up reply actions
Nothing special really, just some generic hero making thing
I quick made it before I left for work yesterday after I saw the first post of Defender of Kob
(Asshole Sr) "If you learn one thing here, NEVER pass out in Ohio."
Still.
I’ll check it out when I get home. And I’m sure it’s great.
- Smudgers
"Newbie, if the next two words out of your mouth aren't 'See ya' then the third word will be 'Oh my god. My crotch. You've punched me in my crotch." - Dr. Percival Ulysses Cox
by David Taylor on Aug 18, 2009 3:26 PM CDT up reply actions
Good solid post!
- Smudgers
"Newbie, if the next two words out of your mouth aren't 'See ya' then the third word will be 'Oh my god. My crotch. You've punched me in my crotch." - Dr. Percival Ulysses Cox
Tom Brady's numbers are sick
51. Tom Brady | COMP% = 63.0 | TD% = 5.4 | INT% = 2.4 | QB RATING = 92.9
"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)
Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)
.
Brady will be moving up the charts (total passing yards)
very quickly. 60%+ completion percentage is a great stat to have. Jay’s got that, the rest of the stats will follow imho.
by Mike Mueller on Aug 17, 2009 2:36 PM CDT up reply actions
Excellent Post
The vast majority of football statistical comparisons are worthless. You look at the numbers and ask the question, so what. This however is a worthwhile comparison. The sampling is large enough in years and includes enough players to make it viable. I do think it would be interesting to add in numbers 11 – 25 to see how much difference there is between a great qb and a serviceable qb. It would also be interesting to throw in Jim McMann, a greatly over rated qb in my humble opinion and Sid Luckman, the Bears last great qb.
You spoke out against the McMahon!!!!!
Geomak to explode in 5,4,3,2……
If you can't laugh at yourself you must not be very funny.
by Just Dave on Aug 17, 2009 3:18 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Yes, I Did
I’ve been a bears fan going on 5 decades and he was one of my least favorite players. Like many players, McMahon succeeded because of the talent he was surrounded with on offense and, a great defense. This name may be before your time but, I suspect that Bob Avellinni would have won the SB had he been surrounded by the talent McMahon was surrounded with and had the same defense to go with it.
Bob Avellini?
Are you kidding me?
Avellini getting drunk and driving OR Avellini winning the SB with the same team McMahon had. Which is more plausible to you?
I'M A MAN! I'M 23!
Punky QB
I agree that he was a tad bit overrated, but certainly Avellini couldn’t do what he accomplished.
"A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject." -Sir Winston Churchill
I'm not so sure
We’ll never know. During his tenure, Avellini had no OL and no running game. He had a rifle for an arm though. Those were some truly terrible teams.
McMahon provided a certain x-factor to that team.
It was the confidence factor. Jerry Vainisi used to have this grading system. And I quote this right out of the book Papa Bear.
"If he [Jimmy Mac] was hurt and on the sidelines, and could play, the team played to a C level. The players figured he would come in and save the game. If he was hurt and not dressed, we played to a B level. The players knew they had to do it themselves. If he was hale and hearty, we were A. No way we could lose."
"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)
Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)
.
Can't disagree on that point
He did indeed have confidence. I’m still a little surprised that his head could make it though the tunnel.
Great Job Sac a juia
A wise man once said, " There is no more anticipated sports figure in Chicago than the backup qb for the bears".
I too become weary of defending JC. i will use this post only to spread the truth.
I remember when i was younger, the great expectations for Jimmy Mac after years of futility. Bobby Douglas, Vince Evans, Bob Avalini…….They were all the next Sid Luckman. In the end the Chicago media eventualy broke their spirits. Making mountains out of mole hills, and such.
And that was before Al Gore invented the internet. I fear the same may happen with our young Jay Cutler.
Fight the good fight………..
This is a nice post but I think I have a legitimate concern.
It seems to me that anyone questioning the Cutler trade, or expressing concerns about Cutler’s leadership or ability gets immediately thrown under the bus by a large contingent of posters here. I’ve always believed that every fan has a right to be critical of a team they follow and love. After all, I was a fan before Jerry Angelo, Lovie Smith, Brian Urlacher, etc… came along and I’ll be a fan long after they’ve moved on. I’ve earned the right to question decisions made concerning the team I have been a fan of for decades. I enjoy reading and posting (probably too much) on this site because this seems to be a great group of posters who have great senses of humor and enjoy genuine banter. Doc’s Sports Predictions Guy made some valid points and this is an excellent response but far too many posters resorted to attacking the poster. I thought the guy had some decent insights but I’m afraid he and people like him will not come back to post on this site due to the number of attacks he and others like him take. I know this sounds preachy but its just an observation I’ve made and a concern I’d like to voice.
If you can't laugh at yourself you must not be very funny.
by Just Dave on Aug 17, 2009 3:16 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
You're wrong and shut up, LOSER. ;)
- Smudgers
"Newbie, if the next two words out of your mouth aren't 'See ya' then the third word will be 'Oh my god. My crotch. You've punched me in my crotch." - Dr. Percival Ulysses Cox
by David Taylor on Aug 17, 2009 3:24 PM CDT up reply actions
You know I heart you!
- Smudgers
"Newbie, if the next two words out of your mouth aren't 'See ya' then the third word will be 'Oh my god. My crotch. You've punched me in my crotch." - Dr. Percival Ulysses Cox
by David Taylor on Aug 17, 2009 3:27 PM CDT up reply actions
You girls need a room?
I'm teaching fools some basic rules.- MR.T
by Ditkavsworld on Aug 17, 2009 3:31 PM CDT up reply actions
Don't go gettin' all jealous now.
- Smudgers
"Newbie, if the next two words out of your mouth aren't 'See ya' then the third word will be 'Oh my god. My crotch. You've punched me in my crotch." - Dr. Percival Ulysses Cox
by David Taylor on Aug 17, 2009 5:01 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm.....not.....jealous.
I'm teaching fools some basic rules.- MR.T
by Ditkavsworld on Aug 17, 2009 6:04 PM CDT up reply actions
The numbers I researched and provided...
Were in response to some typical arguments (either pro or con), where posters merely compare Cutler to one other player. Saying, he threw more INTs than so and so, or had a different record than so and so.
The comparisons in my research show that Cutler stacks up very well in his first 3 years. And, it should also be understood that it’s very typical for QBs to struggle in the early going while they learn their craft. There are a few exceptions… Marino, being one of them. But, the numbers are generally going to reflect those early struggles, the best career years in their prime, and some decline as they age.
By showing a comparison on career averages, it averages the career best years down with the early and late years. Since Cutler’s only played 3 seasons, compared to Favre’s 18, Cutler’s early struggles average in to his total at a similar pace to Favre’s early and late years averaging with his prime.
"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)
Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)
.
Admittedly, things have gotten a little harsh lately
Part of it is the way the argument is presented, but a bigger part of it is just backlash against the vast amount of anti-Cutler sentiment that’s been flooding us by mostly outside sources as of late.
"The time has come to get deeply into Football. It is the only thing we have left that ain't fixed." - HST
This was an excellent post...
I’ll admit I am one of those fans who is not completely sold on Cutler yet. Not because I don’t think he has great talent, but I would rather just take a wait and see approach to see how he handles himself, when the games count, both on and off the field. I’m also a little afraid of his tendencies in the Red Zone based on things I’ve read about him and want to see if he is learning and improving in that area. By the way, I’m not talking about the nonsense in some of the posts from Bronco fans, but articles and stats based on his performance that I’ve looked at once we knew he was coming here. I am also uncomfortable with the fact that he’s not been on a team with a winning record either in college or the pros, but, we all know it takes more than one guy to make a team good so I’m not counting against him…yet.
All that said, your research and attention to detail have given me a better feeling than I had before. Like I’ve said from the beginning, let’s see how he does and give him the benefit of the doubt. Like it or not, he is our QB.
Where's your messiah now, haters?
I can’t believe that Elway has a career rating of 79.9.
"A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject." -Sir Winston Churchill
Yes, he must really suck.
"A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject." -Sir Winston Churchill
Excellent post..
Not grabbing nonsense out of the air. Just posting some stats and making a sound argument.
Keep it coming, sir!
outstanding post
solid research, good presentation, I like it!
by Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. on Aug 17, 2009 4:09 PM CDT reply actions
Good post
I don’t understand why some people seem to hate Cutler so much, its almost as bad as what Leinart has been getting [yes I’m a Cardinals fan, and Leinart isn’t as good as Cutler but when he gets his chance to take over I think he will do well]. But, when the season starts Cutler will be ready and he will prove to the doubters how good he really is.
Awesome post Sack
Great stats and response to Doc’s Sports Predictions Guy. I’m WAY too lazy to look stuff like this up, but I enjoyed reading it.
"The phone's for you, I think it's the Devil."
Great Post
I want to see how those numbers going to average out 8 or 10 years later.
by Dominique Blanton on Aug 17, 2009 10:12 PM CDT reply actions
Excellent post
Fran is still #5. Wow
Interesting to compare the QB’s from the 80’s and 90’s to Cutler. The defensive rules a bit different now. A DB can’t breath on a receiver. Its no coincidence that the most recent QB’s have higher completion percentages. Favre, Manning, Cutler, and Brady, well above 60%. Another factor would be the higher use of 3 and 4 wideout sets, spreading the defense out and giving the QB more options to attack a weakness.
And the use of more zone, forces the QB to throw more check-downs. Which are easier to complete.
Dammit
this is the problem with living overseas! i miss all the good ones! sigh it’s all been covered, good article
I would debate you, but that would only lead to me being dragged away in handcuffs...
by BearNecessities on Aug 18, 2009 6:28 AM CDT reply actions
Just a totally un-Bear-related side note...
you have to wonder where Warren Moon would be on this list had he not played in the Canadian Football League for the first 6 years of his career. If he would have averaged just over 2,500 yards per year for those seasons he would be the all-time leader…assuming Bret does stay retired.
Did you hear
about hte Vikings rumors about Favre again?
I would debate you, but that would only lead to me being dragged away in handcuffs...
by BearNecessities on Aug 18, 2009 8:30 AM CDT up reply actions
JC
Jay Cutler only stacks up statistically with the best of all time because he played in the BRONCO offense. The Denver Broncos have had an elite offense for many years just like the Bears have had an elite Defense.
If Brian Urlacher was traded to the Broncos, you could pretty much guarantee he wouldn’t be as great of a player.
Until the Bears have the kind of dynamic offense that the Broncos have had for so long, I wouldn’t put much stock into Jay’s numbers.
That being said I wish Jay Cutler and the Bears all the luck in the world, and I hope to see you in the Superbowl in a few years.
-BRONCO FAN
by TIM KARSON on Aug 18, 2009 1:30 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
When a QB is demonstrating he can consistently complete over 60% of his passes.
And isn’t dinking and dunking to do so… he’s demonstrating Top 10 QB ability, regardless of what offense he’s playing in.
Brian Urlacher is a great player. Put him on the Broncos, and he’ll still be a great player. He’s been the best player on a 4-12 team… and he’s been the best player on a 13-3 team.
Sometimes you have to actually recognize individual talent.
"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)
Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)
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Great work Sack... wrecked the hell out of this one!
Only thing though, I’d be a bit timid to start looking into these numbers of Cutler’s too closely considering he has only played in the league for 2 complete seasons.
Be nice. Flag comments that you think are offensive. Use the "reply" button. Drink plenty of water. Compliment others. Rec (wreck) comments and posts you like. Don't call people names. If you don't like someone's comment, attack the comment and not the commentor. Learn the difference in your/you're, then/than, to/too. Exercise. Relax. Stretch often. Find good in the world.
That's the beauty of it.
Cutler’s numbers are nearly all comprised of games played during his early development as an NFL QB. Those are seasons in which you expect young QBs to take their lumps, make mistakes, and learn how to play the position at the NFL level. You expect the overall statistics to reflect the leaning curve, and then gradually improve to career highs in his prime.
Well… during Cutler’s learning curve, his numbers are already Top 10 worthy. That’s the most significant finding of this breakdown.
"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)
Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)
.
I totally agree.
And for some reason, for young QBs (or any players new to the league) people typically focus on the errors more than anything (unless a player has a Matt Ryan rookie season).
Something I keep hounding on is the fact that Cutler is good, and for all of his shortcomings, he still has an entire career to improve on them. For the trolls who only look at his demeanor, comments to the press, and INTs, it drives me nuts that they don’t leave room for a player to grow and mature.
My original comment was more focused on staying grounded and in the “now”, rather than looking too far into the future. For “now”, we have an incredibly talented young QB who is going to take his lumps in a new system, but has all the time in the world to grow. His ceiling is certainly still to be known.
Be nice. Flag comments that you think are offensive. Use the "reply" button. Drink plenty of water. Compliment others. Rec (wreck) comments and posts you like. Don't call people names. If you don't like someone's comment, attack the comment and not the commentor. Learn the difference in your/you're, then/than, to/too. Exercise. Relax. Stretch often. Find good in the world.
And to add to that:
QBs in my generation who took their lumps early and still grew expontentially:
Favre, Aikman
Be nice. Flag comments that you think are offensive. Use the "reply" button. Drink plenty of water. Compliment others. Rec (wreck) comments and posts you like. Don't call people names. If you don't like someone's comment, attack the comment and not the commentor. Learn the difference in your/you're, then/than, to/too. Exercise. Relax. Stretch often. Find good in the world.
You're right, but the big difference
is that when those 2 QB’s went to their respective teams they were in acknowledged rebuilding phases so they had more leeway to grow. Unfortunately for Cutler, the Bears are at the point where they have to win soon due to the age of a lot of their core players (Urlacher, Briggs, Tillman, Alex Brown, etc.). That and the intensity of the Chicago media and fanbase might not allow him to take many lumps.
It may not be fair, but it is reality.
And to add to that:
QBs in my generation who took their lumps early and still grew expontentially:
Favre, Aikman
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Lol
Be nice. Flag comments that you think are offensive. Use the "reply" button. Drink plenty of water. Compliment others. Rec (wreck) comments and posts you like. Don't call people names. If you don't like someone's comment, attack the comment and not the commentor. Learn the difference in your/you're, then/than, to/too. Exercise. Relax. Stretch often. Find good in the world.
Me too
I never understood why naysayers of Cutler can’t fathom that he’s young, and his ceiling is pretty high. If he gets more of the cerebral part of the job down, we as fans we’ll be the last ones laughing.
"A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject." -Sir Winston Churchill
People who bash Cutler for his INTs, are... well... just ignorant.
Only 3.0% of Cutler’s pass attempts result in INTs. That’s better than 7 out the the Top 10 passers in NFL history. And, he throws TDs at a 4.4% clip. That ratio is very, very good. If he improves, it could become excellent (Manning or Montana territory is excellence).
"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)
Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)
.
People who bash on Cutler
are mostly just jealous because we had the sack to trade for him. anyone out there absolutely HAS to repsect the ability, as will the NFL coaches, by not stacking the box… so who gives a hoot what the trolls say
I would debate you, but that would only lead to me being dragged away in handcuffs...
by BearNecessities on Aug 19, 2009 6:34 AM CDT reply actions
I'm teaching fools some basic rules.- MR.T
by Ditkavsworld on Aug 19, 2009 9:09 AM CDT up reply actions
Where would i be
without pop up pictures, i do love these though
I would debate you, but that would only lead to me being dragged away in handcuffs...
by BearNecessities on Aug 20, 2009 3:05 AM CDT up reply actions
If you hated them
you’d have no soul. :)
I'm teaching fools some basic rules.- MR.T
by Ditkavsworld on Aug 20, 2009 7:05 PM CDT up reply actions
Good post
It’s a solid retort. And I think we can all agree that being a quarterback is kind of a subjective thing. When Mike Vick and Daunte Culpepper were at their peak I was in the minority of guys who just didn’t think that they were good quarterbacks. They since fell of the map (for various reasons) and combined they have played in two NFC Title games. Are those guys any good? Who is to say. I say no, but someone else could say that they were excellent quarterbacks. One guy in here was knocking Big Ben, but he’s got two rings. Again: subjective. Some people think he’s a great QB some people think he’s overrated. Hey, I’m not a big Eli Manning guy. But he’s got a ring and a solid resume. So who is really to say?
Same goes with Cutler. You can point to certain stats, but being a quarterback isn’t just about the passing stats (See: Vinny Testaverde and Drew Bledsoe in the Top 10, and Warren Moon’s rating being better than Elway’s). And this is my whole point: I am trying to project forward with our quarterback. I think he can be a good quarterback and he can win us some games. But – and this is my opinion, and if you don’t respect that I don’t care – he’s never going to be consistent, he isn’t going to be some perennial Pro Bowler, and I am 50/50 on whether he has what it takes to get us back to the Super Bowl (though I know that a LOT more goes into a SB team than just having a good quarterback).
If that belief makes me a “hater” or a “troll” then so be it. But that’s what I think. I have numbers to back myself up as well. Plenty of them. And my concerns over his off-field behavior and his on-field judgment is really not anything that hasn’t been discussed by people that know a lot more football than most of us. So I don’t see how I’m coming out of left-field here.
(Also, I didn’t say that his ceiling was “merely” Kerry Collins. Go back and check. I made the comparison, and I actually said that Collins has had a really good career. It wasn’t a knock, it was, in my opinion, a solid comparison. And that’s still what I think. I think they are both going to turn the ball over a ton, be really inconsistent, and lose as many games for you as they can win. But the upside is there and when things click they can win some games for you in the postseason. YOU were the one who took it as a knock.)
by Doc's Sports Predictions Guy on Aug 19, 2009 2:43 PM CDT reply actions
BTW
Bledsoe is a really good example in determining what you want out of a quarterback. Would you want Bledsoe? He was a three-time Pro Bowler. He’s got some great numbers.
But at the same time, in just 4 of 14 years did he have a rating over 81. In his career he had 329 turnovers to 261 touchdowns. Seven of his 14 years he had more turnovers than touchdowns. And – most importantly – he only had five years where his record was over .500 and his career mark as a starter was 98-95. He and Cutler are cut from the same cloth, in my opinion. They’ll be great years and there will be awful years and you’ll never know when they’ll be coming.
Just depends on what you want out of your quarterback and what you think he’ll be.
Go Bears.
by Doc's Sports Predictions Guy on Aug 19, 2009 2:54 PM CDT up reply actions
Oh yeah, finally
Just the fact that people have seen fit to compare Jay Cutler with some of the greatest quarterbacks all time just again backs up my assertion that people are blowing this guy way out of proportion.
by Doc's Sports Predictions Guy on Aug 19, 2009 2:56 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm teaching fools some basic rules.- MR.T
by Ditkavsworld on Aug 19, 2009 3:25 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
+1
Courage is not the absence of fear, but rather the judgement that something else is more important than fear.
by windycity72 on Aug 19, 2009 10:07 PM CDT up reply actions
Bledsoe (AKA Frankenstein) was a statue in the pocket
And he only completed 60% + of his passes in 4 of his 14 seasons, by very slim margins (60.2, 60.6, 61.5, 60.1).
Again, if Cutler continues to trend over 60% every year (59.1, 63.6, and 62.3), he will render Bledsoe as a bad comparison.
When trying to compare Cutler to another QB, let’s look at style of play (someone who is known to escape the rush and extend the play) and high completion % (over 60) and QB rating (over 85). Completing 60%, and having a QB rating over 85 are benchmarks for excellent QB play.
"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)
Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)
.
I used to cringe
every time a Bronco game was on, because it never took beyond the first offensive possession for the commentators to compare Cutler to Favre.
Even having only played the last handful of games his rookie year, the comparisons started early, and really took off the following year. I thought it was way too early for people to be making that comparison… but if he had to be compared to someone (instead of letting him be a stand-alone product), Favre might be who it is.
Romo also plays similarly (and also gets the Favre comparison), as well as McNabb in his first few seasons. You might could even throw Flutie and Plummer into the mix.
But when it all boils down to it, the “Pro-Style” QB is the standard in the NFL. Guys who will stay in the pocket, decipher defenses, and make the safe, smart plays. But every now and then, a QB comes into the league who doesn’t fit that mold. And Cutler is definitely part of the latter.
He’s going to make some mistakes, but he is also going to make plays that a prototype QB wouldn’t be able to make. And besides, Chicago doesn’t need a pocket passer… we need someone with some spark, swagger, and maybe even a bit of controversy.
Cutler’s talent has yet to plateau… and it is going to be a whole lot of fun to watch him over the next several years play the game.
Sorry for jumping in, but I saw a soap box laying around.
Be nice. Flag comments that you think are offensive. Use the "reply" button. Drink plenty of water. Compliment others. Rec (wreck) comments and posts you like. Don't call people names. If you don't like someone's comment, attack the comment and not the commentor. Learn the difference in your/you're, then/than, to/too. Exercise. Relax. Stretch often. Find good in the world.
I think Cutler IS a pro-style QB.
Just because he has the ability to extend the play, shouldn’t argue against that label.
He’s a pocket passer first and foremost. But, he also has the ability to move the pocket around, or escape the pocket and run. He’s not a runner like McNabb (who often looked to run first as he ran for over 600 yards in his first full season). So, his style of play just happens to be very comparable to Favre, who extended the play very well.
Tom Brady and Peyton Manning are classic pocket passers, and pro-type QBs… but, they’re also not statues back there like Bledsoe. They move the pocket around very well.
Bledsoe and Collins are pretty much sitting ducks back there.
"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)
Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)
.
I think I would compare Cutler's style more to Marino...
he is much more mobile, but he has that same gunslinger mentality and thinks his arm can get the ball anywhere he needs to and at anytime. That said, and I’ve said this in a previous post, I think Marino was a great passer but, not necessarily a great QB because of some of the things you mention above. I always felt he put his own play ahead of his team’s success. Not for stats, but because he was so confident (some might say overconfident) in his own abilities that he tried to carry every game himself even if it wasn’t really the best thing to do. This one of my concerns with Cutler, but I agree, we have to wait and see, he doesn’t have a long enough track record to say exactly how he’ll perform in the future.
I think Marino is a bad comparison
Mostly because of style of play. Marino was known for two things:
1. His amazingly quick release
2. His immobility.
Because he got rid of the ball so damn quick, he minimized his lack of mobility.
"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)
Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)
.
I said the same thing about his mobility but my point had more to do with their mentality
that their arms would carry them through any situation. Not having closely watched Cutler until a few months ago, my impression was always that he would be the type of QB who be perfectly happy if the rules abolished running the football and I felt that same way about Marino.
Marino also never had a real threat at RB
It was a revolving door of mediocrity at RB for the Dolphins.
In comparison, last season Cutler’s Broncos went through like 5 or 6 RBs because they were decimated by injury. So, Cutler’s pass threat was setting up the run for them. Now, he’s got Forte and Jones. Play action should improve the vertical game for him (if anyone can catch the damn ball).
"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)
Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)
.
True, but I seem to remember Shula kind of caved in to Marino's "likes and dislikes"
so they never really tried to upgrade the running game and preferred to rely on their QB. That’s not his fault, it’s Shula’s, but I think that Dolphin team was proof positive that champions will ultimately come from strong running, strong defense, and good special team play rather than becoming a somewhat one dimensional attack. Although they still kicked our ass in ‘85, which is why I’ll always hate Marino and the Dolphins, so I’ll shut up about them now.
No... they tried. Just always got it wrong.
They drafted Lorenzo Hampton in the 1st round in ’85. He was a bust… and they went with a bunch of no-names, until they drafted Sammie Smith in the 1st round in ’89. Smith fumbled his way out of town, and they drafted Aaron Craver in the 3rd round in ’91. Craver was junk, so they drafted Terry Kirby in the 3rd round in ’93. And, Kirby was junk too.
Then, they stopped trying for a while, and in ‘98 they drafted John Avery with their 1st round pick. He sucked too. The next year, in ’99, they drafted J.J. Johnson with their 1st overall pick (2nd round). That was Marino’s last year.
"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)
Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)
.
Wow
That’s a crap list of RBs ’ole Dan had in Miami. I knew they were bad, but not that horrible. No wonder why he never won a SB.
"A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject." -Sir Winston Churchill
Cutler
Jay Cutler is a great quarterback who will help the Bears make the playoffs, but he has some of the field issues. He blames his wide recievers (like Devin Hester) and he says that can make the catch when it is an interception. He has a 50-50 chance with the fans, and I am looking forward to seeing this play out.
Trust me
nobody really cares about that.
and saying he blames his receiver is going a bit far. just because he didnt shut up and color and say “yeah it was a bad pass” doesnt mean he left Hester out to dry.
it was a bad throw, hester made no effort to get it. you can’t say Cutler is a bad teammate after ONE report of ONE play
I would debate you, but that would only lead to me being dragged away in handcuffs...
by BearNecessities on Aug 20, 2009 3:11 AM CDT up reply actions
Excellent post man, however I give you
-1 for mentioning Rick Mirer. For any reason. :)
"The time has come to get deeply into Football. It is the only thing we have left that ain't fixed." - HST
Who cares about stats. Remember this little fanpost?
http://www.windycitygridiron.com/2009/4/2/820125/as-a-denver-fan-since-1962
Cutler goes from having some great receivers, and NO running game - to Greg Olsen/ mediocre WRs and a great running game.
As long as our O-Line steps it up in the pass game, I’m sure he will be fine this year. Also if our WRs don’t play like Rashied/Hester last year…dropping PERFECT passes…..that will help a bit. :)
Way too premature
I think articles comparing ANY quarterback this early in his career to the all time greats AND trying to draw accurate conclusions is a little premature. Cutler has a lot of talent and a lot of potential. The list of athletes that fit that description early in their career and never achieve “all time great” status is huge. I would have liked to see Cutler continue as a Bronco (check my user name) but I think the tag of “franchise quarterback” that has often been associated with him was more a result of the over-eagerness of media and fans to anoint the next great athlete than factual. This is not an anti-Cutler post. It is simply a post from a guy who remembers when Roger Repoz was the next Mickey Mantle.
You can't make a great comeback unless you are way behind
I don't think this post was really trying to say
that Cutler will be as good as those on the list. It’s just a retort to the overwhelming amount of “Cutler sucks and always will” posts that we’ve been slammed with for quite awhile now. I don’t know if you spend much time over here but it’s been crazy as of late, and I think this is just a general response to quell the stupidity we’ve been flooded with day after day.
"The time has come to get deeply into Football. It is the only thing we have left that ain't fixed." - HST
Another note...
If we look at Y/A…
Cutler: 7.4
Collins: 6.6
Grossman: 6.4
Mirer: 5.9
Orton: 5.8
Why do I mention this? Because even though he got to play with Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal, Cutler also had to face defenses that knew he would pass…and pass…and pass a lot (he was second in the NFL in attempts last season) He gets a huge upgrade at running back, and having defenses load the box more to stop Matt Forte should be cathartic for his Y/A and ratings.
I agree
On both issues. I am kinda old school/throwback type I guess. I mean watching that video of Marshall at practice had me thinking, if I was a team member of the broncos and saw him doing that He and I would be rollin in the grass on the practice field cuz I would be compelled to tell him “If you don’t care to contribute anything to this team’s future success get the f#%* out of here!” As for the trade, I think you can understand that I feel exactly the opposite,only time will tell I guess
Reply LIAF!
- Smudgers
"Newbie, if the next two words out of your mouth aren't 'See ya' then the third word will be 'Oh my god. My crotch. You've punched me in my crotch." - Dr. Percival Ulysses Cox
by David Taylor on Aug 28, 2009 10:13 AM CDT up reply actions
If there's one thing I know, It's LIAF'ing! ;)
or would it be !gni’LIAF? Hmmmm….
- Smudgers
"Newbie, if the next two words out of your mouth aren't 'See ya' then the third word will be 'Oh my god. My crotch. You've punched me in my crotch." - Dr. Percival Ulysses Cox
by David Taylor on Aug 28, 2009 10:18 AM CDT up reply actions
my guess
would be the latter, however since I am kind of a newbie here can I just say “Oh my god. My crotch. You’ve punched me in my crotch”
Lol
or is it loL?
I cut the sleeves off because it looks awesome. NOW GET YOUR HEAD IN THE GAME!
by Ditkavsworld on Aug 28, 2009 10:21 AM CDT up reply actions
You say "tomato," I say "tomato."
Wait, that doesn’t work on the internet!
- Smudgers
"Newbie, if the next two words out of your mouth aren't 'See ya' then the third word will be 'Oh my god. My crotch. You've punched me in my crotch." - Dr. Percival Ulysses Cox
by David Taylor on Aug 28, 2009 11:03 AM CDT up reply actions
No it doesn't
That’s like me saying “potato” or “potato”.
I cut the sleeves off because it looks awesome. NOW GET YOUR HEAD IN THE GAME!
by Ditkavsworld on Aug 28, 2009 1:19 PM CDT up reply actions
I’m not a big fan of stats. They don’t give you the intangibles. Joe Montana doesn’t really appear in the record books but he’s worth ten Peyton Mannings. PM was in one SB and he sucked, how he got the MVP I don’t know, that’s the media for you. Heck I’d take Jim McMahon over Manning any day of the week. 2 minute warning, playoffs. Manning is the greatest choker of all time. You can win as many games as you want regular season, but that doesn’t mean a thing come the playoffs. I’ll take a never-say-die attitude like Joe Cool or Jimmy Mac any old day of the week over a stat queen like Manning. I mean Vinny Testaverde is one of those lists. Vinny Testaverde. That guy was a joke the first half of his career that I remember.
by Irish Bears Fan on Sep 12, 2009 4:40 AM CDT reply actions
Hey Tannji ...
If you think that the trade made the Broncos better, then spell it out. You just threw your future out the door for a couple of picks … and next year’s pick is #32 by the way … your doosh child coach ended your dynasty before it got started. Can you blame Marshall for wanting out ? His career is nothing without a QB with an arm.
by Irish Bears Fan on Sep 12, 2009 4:44 AM CDT reply actions
Pundits / "Experts" = clueless assholes
It never ceases to amaze me when pople write ..“The pundits say this … the pundits say that …” So what ? Are they ever right ? Who had the Cardinals last year ? No one. Anyone remember last year pre-season ? Who was the number one team ? The Minnesota Vikings. I kid you not. Steve Mariucci “expert pundit” previewed the NFC North without even mentioning the Chicago Bears. He predicted the 016 Lions ‘to do better’. What would mere mortals like us do without incisive analysis like that ? They win one game and they do better. 4 teams in the division, one of whom failed to win a single game last year, and the winners and super bowl champs this year don’t even exist. I use pundit ‘experts’ for one reason and one reason alone – to feel better about myself. Look at the crap Michael Fabiano writes for fantasy football and remind yourself of this “You can achieve anything you want to in life. You just need the will to do so.” No intelligence required.
by Irish Bears Fan on Sep 12, 2009 4:52 AM CDT reply actions
Why so angry?
This rant, the rant against Roethlisberger in another thread. Geez, lighten up Francis.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Sep 12, 2009 11:20 AM CDT up reply actions
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