Football Outsiders compares Cutler to Montana, Manning & Favre

by SackMan on Sep 11, 2009 5:47 PM CDT Comment 19 comments

In a wonderful article featured in this weeks issue of ESPN Magazine, our friends at Football Outsiders have detailed a historical statistical comparison for 35 current QBs in the NFL.

The criteria for the comparison (quoted from ESPN Magazine by Peter Keating):

For each of these QBs, Outsiders looked at the 3 most recent seasons, then identified past QBs with the most similar three-season span since 1978 (when the league liberalized passing rules and expanded its schedule to 16 games). Then Outsiders projected career totals for these 35 quarterbacks, based on how their historical doppelgangers went on to perform.

The top 10:

1. Peyton Manning (Brett Favre 2000-02, Trent Green 2001-03, Dan Marino 1990-92)
2. Brett Favre (Warren Moon 1993-95, John Elway 1994-96, Dan Marino 1996-98)
3. Drew Brees (Tom Brady 2005-07, Peyton Manning 2001-03, Dan Fouts 1979-81)
4. Tom Brady (Peyton Manning 2002-04, Daunte Culpepper 2002-04, Trent Green 2002-04)
5. Carson Palmer (Peyton Manning 2000-02, Tom Brady 2003-05, Jim Everett 1988-90)
6. Donovan McNabb (Mark Brunell 1998-00, Vinny Testaverde 1994-96, Dave Krieg 1988-90)
7. Jay Cutler (Joe Montana 1980-82, Peyton Manning 1998-00, Brett Favre 1993-95)
8. Kerry Collins (Bobby Hebert 1994-96, Greg Landry 1977-79, Mike Tomzack 1994-96)
9. Philip Rivers (Tom Brady 2002-04, Danny White 1980-82, Drew Brees 2004-06)
10. Ben Roethlisberger (Ken O'Brien 1985-87, Jim Zorn 1978-80, Troy Aikman 1990-92)

The study lists Jay Cutler as #7 out of 35. And for humorous comparison sake, it lists Kyle Orton as #32. Football Outsiders predicts Peyton Manning will finish his career as the all-time passing leader in yards and TDs. Not a very surprising prediction, especially after looking at the numbers myself in my own recent comparison study - By the numbers: How Cutler stacks up to the NFL's All-Time best

Comparisons on Jay Cutler
The QB with a three-year stretch most similar to Jay Cutler's career through 2008 was Joe Montana from 1980 to 1982. That's a pretty amazing comp. Cutler's other two closest comparisons were Peyton Manning from 1998 to 2000 and Brett Favre from 1993 to 1995. These comparisons are simply incredible. Cutler's doing right now, what the best of all-time have done in the beginning of their careers. Outsiders predicts Cutler will play for 11 more seasons and throw for roughly 44,000 yards in his career.
Projections: 190 GS | 3,997 COMP | 6,341 ATT | 234 TD | 188 INT | 62.7 COMP%.

ESPNs comment:

Bottom Line: Look on my works, ye Broncos, and despair.

Comparisons on Kyle Orton
Orton's closest comps were Rex Grossman, Steve Pelluer, and Chris Chander. Not exactly dazzlers. They predict Orton will play for 6 more years and throw for roughly 12,000 yards when he's done.
Projections: 73 GS | 1,135 COMP | 1,963 ATT | 63 TD | 50 INT | 57.8 COMP%.

ESPNs comment:

Bottom line: Low yards per attempt (5.8) not a promising sign of future success.

Here's the magazine cover

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Comments

We'll see

But if Cutler can put in 11 good years with the Bears, I’ll be very thankful for the stability, even if he isn’t passing teams thru every playoff.

by Virto on Sep 11, 2009 6:16 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Cutler is most comparable to Brett Favre

Cutler is a gunslinger with a big arm, just like Brett Favre was. By far the best comparison I can think of.

Joe Montana? Ah, no. Cutler and Montana are night and day different in their style of play and strengths they bring to the table.

"Cubs will win 79 to 83 games." BLou (7/21/09)

by BLou on Sep 11, 2009 6:54 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

They're comparing statistical performance... not styes of play.

And, the best 3 comparisons to Cutler’s statistical performance from 2006 – 2008 that they found, were Montana, Manning, and Favre.

This is amazing, when you read the full article and look at the stat comps for all 35 QBs.

"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)

Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)
.

by SackMan on Sep 11, 2009 7:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Exactly

I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren

by lookingdeadred on Sep 12, 2009 11:13 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

While I agree with you,

you seemed to have completely missed the point of the post.

I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren

by lookingdeadred on Sep 12, 2009 11:12 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Joe Montana..............Why Not?

When all the dust settles it is certainly in the realm of possibilities Cutler goes down as one of the best. The only thing that could hold him back is he’s diabetic. The only other thing is Ron Turner. I would hazzard to guess this is a make or break year for Ron Turner though.

by Gesiakob on Sep 11, 2009 9:27 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

We all like to make fun of Turner

But the dude is a heckuva lot better coordinator when someone the caliber of Montana-Manning-Favre is throwing passe for him.

"We can do it any way you want to. We can go right out back and get it on or you can shape your ass up."

by FullbackDive on Sep 11, 2009 9:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Problem with comparing past statistical performance

Is that it is no indication of future regression or progression. Some guys start slow and develop while other guys reach their peak very early. It is much safer to judge a guy by what he has already done.

That being said, these stats are interesting and I love what Cutler has already done.

by SenatorSteve on Sep 11, 2009 11:56 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

You have a problem with comparing past statistical performances, but

then you want to judge a guy by what he has already done?

How exactly does that work?

by RomeoSierra on Sep 12, 2009 4:37 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The whole purpose of this comparison was in fact to predict the future.

And when you do it for a sample size of 35 current players, and compare their recent 3 year performance to basically every QB in the NFL since 1978… you get a pretty good idea of what to expect.

"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)

Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)
.

by SackMan on Sep 12, 2009 7:56 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

good stuff

I’d love if that Cutler prediction came true

by wiltfongjr on Sep 12, 2009 1:13 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Ben Worthlessberger ..

Looking at Fatboy Worthlessberger last night, I figured he must be the luckiest SOB on the planet. A fat blubbering mess rolling around in the pocket with 6 seconds to throw the ball. Even with his complete lack of accuracy he keeps his job because the defense make everything better. He even forgot to get out of Mendenhall’s way on a running play. Too fat to move ? He can’t even throw accurate dump offs. Not accurate from five yards. I can’t wait for the Steelers to come to Soldier Field and we pull back the curtain to reveal the Wizard of Oz for what he really is …. a fat, inaccurate weeble-in-the-pocket.

by Irish Bears Fan on Sep 12, 2009 4:59 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Wow what a rant.

Did he refuse to give you an autograph or what?

I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren

by lookingdeadred on Sep 12, 2009 11:13 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

That is just normal

Irish love.

by luckie815 on Sep 12, 2009 11:57 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I only have one thing to say....

hahahahahahahahahahahah

Bear Down, Chicago Bears!

by topdoggkyle on Sep 12, 2009 12:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Jay Cutler

Where would we be if we didnt make the trade? 9-7 would be another dismal non play-off year. He brings high expectations, and new anticipations. We should all be happy we finally have a quarteback who could get us back into the play-offs. If he does play the way he is capable of performing… you can bet the house we will be better than 9-7!

by DJokerst on Sep 12, 2009 12:14 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

As a Cardinals fan I think Leinart is better than what they gave him...

But what they said about Cutler looks good, although I don’t think he will play until he is 37.

by JoeCB1991 on Sep 12, 2009 5:29 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Did anyone miss the fact that Cutler got those “Montana-like” stats in Denver, with a better O-line and much better receivers? Chicago will have to get better support and fast for that to happen, not to mention getting Shanahan in there as well = ) I might add that Cutler throwing for 5000 yards a year between the twenties looks great, until you look at the actual score. Jonny Knox needs to grow up in a hurry for you guys this year. Just sayin.
Oh, someone tell Lovie that I was actually impressed with what they were doing in the ground game… might want to get back to that.

I'm tired of hearing about money, money, money, money, money. I just want to play the game, drink Pepsi, wear Reebok.
Shaquille O'Neal

by tannji on Sep 13, 2009 9:01 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs