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Statistical Year in Review: Offensive Line


  Wcg_thumb_notes_medium The Chicago Bears 2009 season did not turn out the way I, or lots of people, thought it would.  One major reason why is because of the performance of the offensive line.  There were three new starters on the offensive line, which was done to bolster an under-performing 2008 line.  Orlando Pace was brought in to be Left Tackle, Chris Williams became the starter at Right Tackle, and Frank Omiyale was signed & given the starting Left Guard spot.  Roberto Garza remained at Right Guard, and Olin Kreutz was the Center.  How did they all do?

Star-divide

First let's go over the numbers:

The Bears were 29th in the NFL in Rushing Yards with 1,492 yards; 93.2 yds/game.

The Bears only got 71 1st downs running the ball.  Good for 31st in the league.  The Jets had 132; the Colts 69.

The Bears gave up 35 sacks (19th) and 78 QB hits (17th).

According to Football Outsiders, the Bears offensive line was 19th in Adjusted Line Yards (4.02). 

Adjusted Line Yards formula takes all running back carries and
assigns responsibility to the offensive line based on the following percentages:
  • Losses: 120% value
  • 0-4 Yards: 100% value
  • 5-10 Yards: 50% value
  • 11+ Yards: 0% value
These numbers are then adjusted based on down, distance, situation,
opponent, and the difference in rushing average between shotgun
compared to standard formations. Finally, we normalize the numbers so
that the league average for Adjusted Line Yards per carry is the same
as the league average for RB yards per carry.

Their Power Rank was 25th with a Power Success of 58%.  The Bears were successful on only 58% of their running plays on 3rd or 4th down, with 2 yards or less to go for a 1st down or TD.  That's the offensive line not getting a good push.  Cincinnati was first with a Power Success rate of 79%.  Previous Bears' o-lines in 2006, 2007, and 2008 had Power Success rates of 71% (7th in NFL), 75% (3rd), and 63% (20th).  [note: O-line? or Forte?]

According to FO, the Bears were actually an average pass blocking team.  Their 35 sacks, yielded a sack rate of 5.9%, which was good for 13th in the NFL.  The NFL leader was Indy with just 13 sacks allowed and a sack rate of 3.1%.  The Bears' 2006-2008 sack rates were: 4.8% (6th), 7.1% (18th), & 5.3% (11th).

According to ProFootballFocus.com's rating system.  The Bears' were 26th in pass blocking with a rating of -24.3.   The Bears' run blocking was slightly better with a ranking of 20th, and a rating of -10.6.

Individually, Kreutz (+5.8) and Garza (+5.5) graded out well, and Williams (-18.6), Pace (-26.3), and Omiyale (-6.9) were pretty bad.  LINK  In fact, in the entire NFL; Orlando Pace graded out as the 72nd tackle, Williams 65th, and Omiyale the 62nd guard.   (Garza was 18th among G's, Kreutz 16th among C's)  If we look deeper into Williams' ratings though we see a huge improvement starting in Week 11. He earned positive ratings in 6 of his last 7 games.  Frank Omiyale also saw a huge improvement from a horrible start to the season.  He had positive ratings in 5 of the last 6 games including very good run blocking numbers.

In my Roster Prediction post a couple of weeks ago, I speculated that maybe Kreutz and Garza were not 100% certain to be on the roster next summer.  I'm moving Kreutz to 100% and Garza to 75%.  They are solid and dependable.  Chris Williams will no doubt be the starting left tackle next year.  He improved over the season, and cemented his position with an excellent performance against Jared Allen in week 16.  As much as we like to poke fun at Omiyale, he also improved a lot as the season wore on. 

That leaves just right tackle.  Kevin Shaffer was an adequate backup and swing tackle.  I don't know if he's the goods though.  The Bears could move Omiyale back to tackle and have him compete for the right tackle position with Shaffer.  This obviously leaves a gaping hole at left guard to be filled in with a draft pick or a free agent.  Conversely, the Bears could leave Omiyale at left guard and bring in a free agent right tackle to either compete or be given the right tackle position.  I suspect the Bears will try and acquire whatever guard or tackle they can, and then put Omiyale at the other.

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outstanding stuff

Good to know the numbers back up my eyeballs!

I thought Williams and Omiyale hit their stride late in the season, and I never understood the get rid of Kruetz stuff. And Garza has been a solid pro his time in Chicago. If the Bears can get RT figured out (maybe Shaffer will be the guy?) the line should start getting even more familiarity with each other moving forward.

by Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. on Jan 20, 2010 10:16 AM CST reply actions  

Agreed

I like Kreutz and his personality I imagine is good for a young line. And correct me if I’m wrong, but even someone as old as Kreutz could continue to play for a few more years at the Center position (Isn’t Jeff Saturday like 37?).

I think with a new O-Line coach, a healthy running back, and especially more creative playcalling, the o-line could be average to above-average.

by ClawsClawsClaws on Jan 20, 2010 10:52 AM CST up reply actions  

The Bears need to stop playing "Mad Scientist" with their personel.

We need to let the players play at their natural positions.

No more WR’s that were DB’s, no more RT’s that were LT’s, no more LG’s that were RT’s. There is a reason when college players are selected in the draft they have a position designation…that’s where they should be playing. Some players play multiple positions…ok that’s fine let them play the positions they know, but let’s not try to put a square peg in a round hole.

Some of the experiments are working, like Hester from DB to WR; however, some failed miserably like Williams LT to RT. How much different would our line have looked with Williams on the Left from the begining of the season…

Unreasonable people make life difficult...

by WisBearsFan34 on Jan 20, 2010 10:52 AM CST reply actions  

NIce write up and good info

I am shocked at the Kreutz rating and obviously Wilt will disagree but he was awful for most of the year. The game has definitely passed him by and should be gone. A stronger run game in between the tackle will be led by an upgrade at center and guard. Still not sold on Omiyale but definitely not as bad asa earlier in the year. I think he cut his penalties per game from 3 to 2…

" Former Original WCG Power Poster!"

by tfrabotta on Jan 20, 2010 11:47 AM CST reply actions  

Yes we will disagree!

…and as soon as he’s gone Bears fans will be longing for someone as good as an aging Kreutz!

by Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. on Jan 20, 2010 12:21 PM CST up reply actions  

Agreed

Its easy to stick a superstar player in their position and surround them with poor play and then blame the superstar (hmmm, sounds awfully •• Jay Cutler •• familiar). But surround them with stable talent, and watch them thrive and grow. I think with a solid line, we’re gonna see more Bear victories in the future, and a Superbowl contender is not out of the question. It just takes time. The benchmark of which was achieved in the last several games of the season. The line started looking better, and gelling better. If that bleeds over into the fall, Cutler’s gonna have a good line to work with, which means fewer passes with players sitting on top of him, and the ability to put the ball where it needs to go.

Which brings us to the receivers … LOL.

by artroland on Jan 20, 2010 12:29 PM CST up reply actions  

I am already longing

for the old Kreutz. I loved that guy and he was great for us for a long time but everyone has to see the writing on the wall at some point.

" Former Original WCG Power Poster!"

by tfrabotta on Jan 20, 2010 12:51 PM CST up reply actions  

Whammo!

-------
"Newbie, if the next two words out of your mouth aren't 'See ya' then the third word will be 'Oh my god. My crotch. You've punched me in my crotch." - Dr. Percival Ulysses Cox

by David Taylor on Jan 20, 2010 6:07 PM CST up reply actions  

I will look into it,

but i wonder where our OL ranked when it came to penalties last season?

I will trade you three pretzel's, two bologna sandwiches, and one Lovie Smith for your pudding.

by Bears fan 4-ever!!! on Jan 20, 2010 12:56 PM CST reply actions  

Tice too,

He should help the o-line come along next season

Space Mountain on Three; One, Two, Three, Space Mountain!

by Mark Saade on Jan 20, 2010 1:29 PM CST reply actions  

This was a great post about the biggest ? on our offense.

I like how you broke down even further the last few games for Williams, etc.

There is, however, one thing that bothers me. I’ve always been a fan of stats. It is a really important tool for comparison and analysis. But when we rely too much on stats and not on our own eyes, we miss the subtleties and complexities of the game.

For instance, my eyes told me that Kruetz has really lost a step in all aspects of his game. Omiyale, although he has shown improvement over the last few games, still looked bad overall.

Was our Oline really getting that much better over the course of the year, or did Jay get used to imminent pressure once he took the snap and was looking to get rid of it quicker or learn to watch for the pressure from the A gap? Maybe Forte was feeling healthier over the last 2 games and made our Oline’s run blocking look better? Perhaps Turner started actually making adjustments to compensate for the lack of line cohesion?

These are things I am never sure of, and is the reason why I try to temper the raw stats with what I see on gameday. We also shouldn’t celebrate mediocrity just because it replaced inadequacy. “Better” does not equal “good enough”. (Wow, I’m sounding more and more like Rosenbloom. I think I’ll step away from the keyboard for awhile after this post.)

I agree with your last statement. I think the Bears will try to go for whatever is more affordable given the market and get a RT or G, then move Omiyale into whatever void is left. Sigh… Will we ever learn?

by ChiLobo#23 on Jan 20, 2010 1:42 PM CST reply actions  

great stats

 But stats don’t always tell the whole story and should be looked at as a part of the picture but not the entire portrait.

"I am not an animal!" - Merrick

by Maelvampyre on Jan 20, 2010 2:27 PM CST reply actions  

They don't but its kinda true

I mean Omilaye did improve ALOT by the end of the year

by Seejay on Jan 20, 2010 3:11 PM CST up reply actions  

Beekman

I will be deeply disappointed (yet not suprised) if we don’t get Beekman into the starting lineup next season.

Kreutz was not good (regardless of what someone’s calculations may say), and has been on the decline for several seasons now. It’s time to turn the snapping duties over to Beekman.

However, now that we’ve signed Tice, who apparently loves Kreutz, I fear that we’ll have to suffer thru another season of having no ability to run up the middle. Besides losing his ability to consistently get a good push, Kreutz commits way too many penalties these days, and actually struggles to snap the ball worth a damn.

by MakeHalasProud on Jan 20, 2010 3:12 PM CST reply actions  

I agree with you their Wilt

I think Beekman is a nice backup (at G or C) but he is not our center of the future. It is nice that he could fill in due to need but not as our starter.

" Former Original WCG Power Poster!"

by tfrabotta on Jan 20, 2010 4:32 PM CST up reply actions  

center of the future?

as far as I know, Beekman is the only one other than Kreutz with C experience (not counting our boy Mannelly).

Kreutz will only continue to decline.

Beekman represents a lot more of a future than does Kreutz. Don’t get me wrong – I respect & appreciate all that Kreutz has done for us, but his best days are well behind him. It’s time to accept that reality and prepare for the future.

by MakeHalasProud on Jan 20, 2010 6:39 PM CST up reply actions  

I am with you 100% on kreutz

I just don’t think that Beekman is the guy to step in. I think we need a FA or a 3rd – 4th rd draft pick for our future center.

" Former Original WCG Power Poster!"

by tfrabotta on Jan 21, 2010 9:06 AM CST up reply actions  

Garza has center experience too

and Mannelly was a tackle at Duke… but I’m sure he could just run everything from the shotgun !

by Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. on Jan 21, 2010 10:07 AM CST up reply actions  

The bottom line is...

an aging Kruetz is still better than anyone else on the Bears roster.

Fans look for pancake blocks from the offensive line, the fact is that just ain’t happening, even from the pro bowl players. It’s all about technique. Simply getting your body between the defensive lineman and the running back is what you look for.

Around the league Kruetz is still looked at as an above average center.

by Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. on Jan 21, 2010 10:13 AM CST up reply actions  

I'm a fan of Kreutz

but, Im afraid of staying with him for to much longer. I agree that he is a great leader but he must be able to perform as well. I dont want to wait to long to replace him. :( But I dont know that Beekman is the answer either.

by chigrl on Jan 20, 2010 9:29 PM CST reply actions  

Great post

I appreciate the effort and agree with the conclusions that the in all likelihood, the Bears will only be looking for one additional starter on the O Line. I also agree that it will either be a new RT or and new LG if Omiyale is moved to RT. I would prefer to leave Omiyale where is is and let him continue to grow into that role. But finding a new quality RT will not be easy. There are no 4 or 5 star young UFA OT’s coming into the market next year at all. I think we could have found one with our 42nd pick in this draft but alas that sad story is over.

We are more likely to find starter quality in FA and with our 3rd round pick at the OG position and so there is a chance we pursue that route.

Alternatively, we could try to trade vets (pick your poison because as far as I’m concerned, nobody on this roster except Cutler is untouchable right now) for draft picks and move into the second round again to pick up a starting caliber o linemen.

Our decisions also hinge, imho, on what Tice wants out of his o-line (size, strength vs. speed, athleticism.)

One last variable: We have two interesting prospects on the bench in OG Lance Louis and OT James Marten. I don’t know how they’re developing but I am holding out some hope that one of them steps us and surprises us next off-season.

by The Kaiser on Jan 21, 2010 12:53 AM CST reply actions  

and speaking of Tice..

I am curious if he will have the end all say all on offensive line personnel. Last year it was easy to blame everything on Ron Turner, but i wonder sometimes if it was really the old offensive line coach that stayed with Pace for so long or if it was insurmountable pressure from JA. I guess this year we will find out, if a guy is going to be the coach on the offensive line, his word needs to be the final word on who he thinks gives us the best chance to win period.

Garza was solid this year also, I barely remember his name being called for any penalties, surely nowhere near as many as Frank O or Pace..(hello..3rd and 1 on Atlanta goaline false start! I still get mad about that one) But i am very curious to see what changes will be made if any, in the draft or FA to the line.

by Chitownproduct on Jan 21, 2010 2:34 AM CST up reply actions  

A Right Tackle could be found in the 3rd round

And I’m think at some point the Bears will draft o-line in the draft

by Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. on Jan 21, 2010 10:04 AM CST up reply actions  

Sure...

and Tom Brady can be found in the 6th round and Marques Colston in the 7th. But I’m talking about finding a guy who will a) be capable of starting immediately as a rookie and b) actually be given a chance to start as a rookie.

by The Kaiser on Jan 21, 2010 11:26 AM CST up reply actions  

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