The Anatomy of a Draft Bust
NFL Draft Day is one of the most hallowed days in all of sports, and has a unique place as one of the few sports drafts that gets intense attention for more than a month. We've got mock drafts, draft scouts, draft breakdowns, college scouting reports, and more; and this is all from your average every day fan. When you get to the actual networks you'll see multiple day live draft coverage, dissection of Wonderlic scores, combine numbers, and individual play break downs from every single sports network.
The question is that with all that information how exactly to multiple teams every year end up with the dreaded bust pick? We are going to take a look at exactly what constitutes a bust pick, and how they can be identified before they happen.
Now then, everyone has a definition of a bust, so we need to all be working from the same page here. My definition of a draft bust is as follows.
Bust: A player who does not live up to the expectations he was drafted for in the first three years of play.
These expectations can be as wide and varied as the players themselves, from expecting a player to be a starter on the offensive line, to simply expecting them to be a quality back up, expectations matter when it comes to defining a player as a bust, just as they do when it comes to classifying them as a value pick. It's these expectations that come from evaluations that usually determine a teams pick, so it's important to remember that just because a player sticks around on the team doesn't mean they aren't a bust, nor does a player not seeing the field immediately classify them as a bust either.
Here are some key indications of a bust in the making.
Measurables that don't translate to the field.
Every single year we see a player shoot up the draft boards based solely and completely on his combine scores. Whether that be an extremely fast 40 time, a mammoth bench press, a high jump that would make a kangaroo blush, or any other stat: they still don't always convert over to on the field performance. Most teams take a look at the film and see how the player actually looked on film, as there is often a sizable difference between game speed, and measurable speed as well as effective strength compared to measurable strength. It's incredibly important to rely on the game film to see how much of those gaudy talents are actually going to translate on the field because chances are, if his college coaches were unable to make any progress with the guy over three or four years, the chances of you making progress in three or four more are about the same.
Drafting a player because "he's the best at the position", and not because he matches your need.
The open secret in the NFL is that much like MMA or boxing, styles make the fights. Sure, individual talents are fantastic, but football is very much a team sport and each player has to fit the scheme they are going to be playing. For instance, there are a lot of fantastic players that are drafted every year because they are fantastic players, and not because they fit the scheme they are drafted for. Those are usually the same players that get labeled with a big fat bust label after a few years in the league.
A perfect example of this kind of player is Brian Urlacher, or as a more recent similar example, Aaron Curry. Both are fantastic linebackers, and both either had or are going to have long and fantastic careers in the NFL. The other thing they both have in common is that neither of them could get to the quarterback if their life depended on it. They are great in coverage, they make big plays, they have a nose for the ball, and they are going to get 100+ tackles a year, but if you're looking for someone that can help with a pass rush you're out of luck. Much too often you see teams that have a need at a position, but instead of addressing the specific need they simply draft the most gifted player thinking he should be able to fill that need, when it isn't always the case.
Drafting a player much too early just because he fills a need, or you fell in love with him.
As I noted before, classifying draft picks is often a game of expectations and there is no quicker way to inflate expectations with the general public than being drafted 15-20 positions before you were projected. This usually happens at least two or three times a year, and isn't always the worst thing in the world. Chris Johnson would be an example of a gamble that paid off, but far too often falling in love with a player on your draft board simply ends in a broken heart for both parties. Take Darrius Heyward Bey in last years draft, projected as a mid to late first rounder by the time the draft came around he had worked his way up from the late second round with a very good combine performance. Now then, why is he so important?
The Raiders had a "need" at WR because the Emperor, I mean Al Davis, wanted someone for his new QB to throw the ball too. Okay, you might be asking what the problem is, he needed a WR, and he got one. The problem is he picked him before three other wide receivers that were ranked over him on many draft boards: Michael Crabtree, Jeremy Maclin, and even Percy Harvin. With such a huge jump up the boards and skipping over so much more highly rated talent, DHB's expectations were immediately skyrocketed to the point where if any of the other three are even slightly better than him he is going to be flagged as a bust.
Drafting a player at a non-need position just because of a large amount of value.
While this isn't terrible drafting advice, especially if your team does not have a lot of glaring needs, it can cause major issues with expectations. Usually when a position isn't a need it's because you already have a quality starter or three, and anyone you draft is going to be riding the pine. As I will go into a bit later, this isn't specifically a bad thing since a good portion of players aren't immediately ready for the NFL field. However, if your team does have multiple needs and you make a different pick or trade, just for value, every failure at the positions of need will be placed squarely on that draft pick's shoulders.
For instance, in the Bears case we have multiple needs at offensive line, as well as at safety, and possibly along the defensive line as well. If the Bears organisation decides to draft a young WR who was slated as a late first rounder with our third round pick this year, even though it's an insane amount of pick value, that player will invariably be declared a bust unless he manages to not only see the field in his first two years, but also is a legitimate number one as well. Since that's unlikely to happen, you're looking at a sure fire recipe for a bust.
Drafting a player whose experience and NFL readiness doesn't fit the need.
This is one that hits positions like quarterback, middle linebacker, and secondary more than others, but it's applicable across the board. Some players are ready to hit the ground running as soon as they get off the bus from college, while others definitely need some time to season on a NFL team before they are ready for prime time and it's extremely important tor recognize this. There have been some very good QBs such as David Carr that were thrown to the wolves and absolutely decimated before they even had a chance, and of course Carr was labeled a bust after spending the majority of his early career being scrapped off the turf.
All the aforementioned positions have one thing in common, and that's the need to not only adjust to the speed of the NFL game, but the increased complexity and different schemes used compared to college. One thing that is universal to all NFL players is an acceptable amount of confidence, and if you put a player in these positions before they have had a chance to build up a bit of confidence you could destroy what they already have and literally never be able to get it together enough to bounce back. The opposite is also true where if you have an extremely gifted player with a massive football IQ. It can hold him back sitting him on the bench more than a few games and in some cases the only adjustment they need is to the game speed. It's a delicate balance, but one that must be maintained if you want to avoid your first round picks being labeled as busts.
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So now then, none of the "rules" I've mentioned guarantee a bust, nor does following all of them guarantee a star player, but rest assured the more of these rules that are broken in conjunction the higher the likelihood of leaving the draft worse than when you entered.
So now I'll open it up to you, what are some of the glaring draft bust indicators I may have missed, or on the flip side, some of the indicators of a quality pick?
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Comments
It Varies By Position
For instance, there is significant data showing how much worse off a quarterback is if they leave school early (Ryan Leaf anyone).
Also, many receivers who come out of a more run n’ shoot style offense tend to struggle in the NFL because they lack route running abilities. Their production is incredible in college, but they have to be more precise with their running to be successful in the pros.
mostly agree
I mostly agree with the content of your post and it was some good reading.
One thing, I could be wrong but I don’t think Urlacher is asked to do a lot of pass rushing, so to say he can’t get to the QB is rather misleading. He is asked to drop back into coverage more than the average LB, which takes him away from the ball. Don’t know about Curry.
"I am not an animal!" - Merrick
His biggest knock around the league...
Is his well known inability to get off a block to save his life, he’s still great, but it’s a known flaw in the Hurtlacher.
Associate Writer - WindyCityGridiron.com
+1..lol
I hope he turns out good for us.
Round and round ya go, where ya stop only Homie knows..spin your dumb ass!!! Homie D. Clown
by Bears fan 4-ever!!! on Jan 21, 2010 7:40 PM CST up reply actions
He’s already labeled as a bust in my books…but I heard Lovie likes watching people in pools
by Sonicbob on Jan 22, 2010 8:17 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
Right
because every player that doesn’t produce in their first year is a bust.
You're being very Un-Dude right now.
by IslandBoodler87 on Jan 22, 2010 9:49 AM CST up reply actions
Somebody should have told that to....
Walter Payton.
First game: 0 yards on 8 carries.
First season: 679 yards on 196 carries. 3.5 YPC. 213 yards on 33 receptions for 6.6 YPR. 872 total yards on 229 touches for 3.8 yards/touch. Oh and and 1 pass for an interception. Retired with 4.4 YPC, 9.2 YPR and 4.9 yards per touch. That first year definitely told the whole story.
Some days it's not worth chewing through the restraints - T-Train.
Two things are infinite: The universe and human stupidity. And I am not sure about the universe. - Albert Einstein.
Earl Bennett
How about Urlacher as well? He wasn’t all that his first year until switching to MLB, and that was later in the season. Unless you’re an elite talent, most players will struggle to be consistent in their rookie campaigns.
"But it doesn't matter what I do, what I choose. I'm what's wrong. This is fate" - Dexter season 4....I mean Lovie season 6.
elite talent...
Even the elite talent tag doesn’t mean much in terms of NFL readiness. Curtis Enis was an elite talent. So were Cedric Benson and Thomas Jones. But Enis never translated that talent to production. Benson Did, once he left Chicago. Jones did once he arrived in Chicago (Remember, Jones was officially a bust when he got here after being drafted 7th overall by the Cards, and it took him 6 years and 3 teams to finally break the 1000 yard mark for a season). Meanwhile, Forte is never going to be considered an “elite talent”. He isn’t fast, strong or elusive. But he is talented and his maturity level seemed to be miles above that of the aforementioned players. And so he was more NFL ready than the aforementioned players, and far more productive in his rookie year.
I think it takes a perfect storm of coaching, scheme, surrounding talent, maturity and talent for a rookie to be as productive as Forte was. Definitions of productive very as well. The media is all over how great Mark Sanchez has been in his rookie campaign, yet statistically, Sanchez equates to JaMarcus Russell.
When Orton managed the Bears into the playoffs in ‘05, he was a 4th round nobody that got little to no attention and was called a game manager all season. Yet Sanchez, as a high profile 1st rounder, has extremely similar numbers and outcomes, and he’s being hailed for his play. I don’t get it. I’m not saying that Orton should have been evaluated differently. I’m saying that Sanchez should have been. The guy has a 63 QB rating for God’s sake. He through almost twice as many INTs as TDs. His best games were managed games. Yet he’s a golden boy while Orton, a guy picked 101 spots later, didn’t get the same credit for doing the same things, except that the 05 Bears were 10-5 when Kyle Started and the 09 Jets are 8-7 with Sanchez in the game. Go figure.
But this obviously shows that expectations are as much a factor as production.
Some days it's not worth chewing through the restraints - T-Train.
Two things are infinite: The universe and human stupidity. And I am not sure about the universe. - Albert Einstein.
Your Orton comment should read
like this…
When Orton managed the Bears into the playoffs in ‘05
When the Bears defense and special teams managed to get Orton to the playoffs.
"But it doesn't matter what I do, what I choose. I'm what's wrong. This is fate" - Dexter season 4....I mean Lovie season 6.
I agree....
As I said, I don’t wish to re-evaluate Orton’s performance. I believe that calling him a game manager was fair. And the same holds true for Sanchez. The Jets D and running game got Sanchez to the playoffs. He managed games well enough not to screw it up.
What you’re saying is exactly my point……..
Notice how quick the comment came that downplayed Orton’s responsibility int he playoff appearance. And that is a fair comment. But you would expect higher expectations from the #5 overall pick (Sanchez) than from a #106 overall pick (Orton). Yet, with fairly equal rookie seasons, Sanchez is given a pass, at worst, and is hailed as having a great rookie campaign, and Orton was along for the ride while having a virtually identical season and winning more games……
Some days it's not worth chewing through the restraints - T-Train.
Two things are infinite: The universe and human stupidity. And I am not sure about the universe. - Albert Einstein.
You're right on the whole Orton thing, plus, don't forget, he was still considered the 3rd string QB
until the week before the season started which is where the “game manager” term came from. Coming out of college he was considered a gunslinger in Tiller’s offense like his predecessor, Drew Brees (I’m not comparing the two, so don’t get all excited). He had no prep time with the first string offense so when Grossman got hurt and they decided to cut Chad Hutchison after the last pre-season game, they had no other choice.
I’m not saying things would have been any different, but I always wondered if we would have gone any further if they had just stuck with Orton rather than go back to Rex at the end of the season.
enis blew out his knee...
in his rookie year i believe.
Injured his MCL.....
Prior to the injury, he rushed for a fantastic 3.7 yards per carry and 3.3 yards per reception. He never really worked out and is widely considered to be one of the biggest busts of the 90’s. was released by the bears, and retired after failing to find a spot, citing his knee injury.
Some days it's not worth chewing through the restraints - T-Train.
Two things are infinite: The universe and human stupidity. And I am not sure about the universe. - Albert Einstein.
it was a torn ACL
and 3.3 yards on 6 catches.
Sorry, ACL...
My mistake, I was going off of memory. Should have looked it up. But none of that removes the fact that he was a bust. And a huge one. Played 2 more seasons after the knee injury, and never proved anything. My point still stands. He wasn’t exactly tearing it up before the injury. Yes, his 3.3 YPR was over 6 receptions…..in 9 games. He couldn’t tear the starting position away from a washed up Edgar Bennett who was averaging only 3.5 yards per carry. Meanwhile, his counterpart complementary rookie back, James Allen, rushed for 4.7 yards per carry, and had a 9.6 YPR on 9 catches.
Enis was a bust. Plain and simple.
Some days it's not worth chewing through the restraints - T-Train.
Two things are infinite: The universe and human stupidity. And I am not sure about the universe. - Albert Einstein.
Lovie insists that Tillman is the "best corner" we have and we won't move him to safety.
No matter how much sense that might make.
If you can't laugh at yourself you must not be very funny.
i disagree with one thing
look at brian urlacher’s stats. how can he not get after the QB to save his life? look at his rookie season…was it not 8 sacks? look at it . he averages 3-5 sacks a year really.
"If you call them, they will come." - Jerry Angle/Lovie Smith after vacating the OC spot
But its not his specialty
He gets caught up in traffic a lot, and often has a hard time fighting past blockers to the quarterback. Nobody is saying he is bad at it, but he isn’t an elite pass rusher for the linebacker position.
it's really the scheme
he drops back in coverage 4 out of 5 plays. his main duties are middle coverage and run defense
"If you call them, they will come." - Jerry Angle/Lovie Smith after vacating the OC spot
by suckmyditka on Jan 22, 2010 10:33 AM CST up reply actions
Right.
He was drafted for that coverage ability. Remember that Brian was a safety in college. The Bears didn’t draft him as a pass rusher. They drafted him for his strengths in Pursuit and Coverage. There are few LBs who have ever been better in coverage, and Urlacher is probably the single best Cover 2 MLB ever because of those strengths. Too bad the scheme has been figured out by the league.
Some days it's not worth chewing through the restraints - T-Train.
Two things are infinite: The universe and human stupidity. And I am not sure about the universe. - Albert Einstein.
I guess he would be
if the Bears let him:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rilpNWg_41gt="new">!
"More cowbell" - Bruce Dickinson
"More bell cow" - Lovie Smith
by spleensplitter on Jan 22, 2010 10:54 AM CST up reply actions
Try that again
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rilpNWg_41g
"More cowbell" - Bruce Dickinson
"More bell cow" - Lovie Smith
by spleensplitter on Jan 22, 2010 10:56 AM CST up reply actions
How many MLBs have big sack numbers ?
He’s huge, he can’t exactly sneak up to the LOS like D. Manning can he … ?
by Irish Bears Fan on Jan 21, 2010 10:56 PM CST up reply actions
Lovies scheme is all about him dropping into the middle of the field.
Thats one reason his sacks are low but defnitly not the only
by Bear Lovin 21 on Jan 21, 2010 11:28 PM CST up reply actions
He's a MLB, as has been touched on...
Ray Lewis has never had more than 5 sacks in a season. Their jobs are to man the middle of the field, and to have great lateral movement to clean up runs to the outside. Urlacher as a bust is a joke. He performed at Pro Bowl levels in his first three seasons, which by the definition in this post is the opposite of a bust.
Does he not always live up to the godly-expectations of some near-sighted fans and media — yeah.
can't forget about season 5 was it?
Defensive Player of the Year
how is he a bust, he’s one of a handful of players to win ROTY and DPOY, if they had won the superbowl, he’d be surefire HOF
"Hey, the offensive linemen are the biggest guys on the field, they're bigger than everybody else, and that's what make them the biggest guys on the field." -Madden
by BearNecessities on Jan 22, 2010 10:20 AM CST up reply actions
No one is calling him a bust, just an example of a player that...
if drafted as a pass rusher, would have been considered a bust. Not all LB are built the same and while Urlacher is or at least was one of the best coverage LB in the game, if someone had drafted him to be a rushing LB, for instance a team like SD, then they would have been throwing bust flags like crazy.
Urlacher has one massive flaw, he doesn’t get off blocks well, if at all, but thankfully he really isn’t called upon to in our scheme. If he’s heading to the QB, it’s almost always unblocked as part of a two person blitz.
Associate Writer - WindyCityGridiron.com
MLB--Lewis Comment
Exactly right-on; and they call Ray Lewis “The Best” So is Brian—He just has not gotten much help and everyone thinks he can do it all !! Well as great as he is…he can’t.
Urlacher's is a bust???
Wow I hope you’re being sarcastic if not, that is one of the dumbest comments ever. No disrespect.
I did NOT say Urlacker was a bust T.Moore...
what I said was he is one of “The Best”, but he can’t do it all himself…Sack numbers really do not tell the whole story…this guy plugs up the middle, stops the run, pressures the QB, forces turnovers—-HE makes everyone else look good!! He needs some help is all I am saying.
Sacks are overrated
Some part of Blache’s comments way back when hold true. It’s pressure that is important; force the QB to get rid of the ball before he’s ready. Sacks are just a by-product of that.
"But it doesn't matter what I do, what I choose. I'm what's wrong. This is fate" - Dexter season 4....I mean Lovie season 6.
So how do you rate Olsen ?
Caught seven TDs this year. Yet he can’t block and is therefore a liability. Three of those TDs came in a game that was already over. He had a lot of 2-catch games (in one of which he was targeted 14 times!) and did not contribute a lot to his team considering he was expected to be our top receiver. Too many passes dropped on third down. Hurt his team all year long. But does 7 TDs this year take him off the Bust list ? Not in my world …
by Irish Bears Fan on Jan 21, 2010 10:54 PM CST reply actions
For the record Olsen caught 8 touchdowns
Every year Olsen has increased his catches, yards and touchdowns and in his first two he split time with Dez. So along with that stat and my opinion i say no he is not a bust because he is improving. Every player has growing pains, yes he dropped some passes but you didnt mention the spectacular catches he made this year that flash his talent and show why we drafted him. I like the way hes been coming along and as far as being taken off the bust list i personally never had him on it but well see how he does in his fourth year
by Bear Lovin 21 on Jan 21, 2010 11:32 PM CST up reply actions
The question is whether he lived up to draft hype
That answer is yes. Many expected him to do better this year, and he didn’t live up to those expectations, but looking back on his draft day, I think we would all be satisfied with the player he is today. Nobody will ever call him a great blocker, but he has improved. Furthermore, he has decent hands and uses his athleticism and big body well in catching the ball in traffic and going up and getting it. Sure, he asks for pass interference WAY too much, but I for one am pleased with how he is developing.
couple of weeks ago jurko on WMVP....
broke down some stats on olsen. things like YAC and %catches vs times targeted. combined with his poor blocking, jurko made a pretty good point that olsen is below average at best.
Olsen has improved as a blocker
I’d call him average… he uses good initial technique, he just hasn’t figured out how to sustain his blocks on a consistent basis yet…
My guess is he’ll keep getting better as his career goes on.
by Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. on Jan 22, 2010 8:43 AM CST up reply actions
So
How do you classify Cedric Benson? With the Bears a “bust,” but with the Bengals a boom? It’s hard to call him both.
"But it doesn't matter what I do, what I choose. I'm what's wrong. This is fate" - Dexter season 4....I mean Lovie season 6.
"Team chemistry" perhaps?
Remember when Cedric Benson said he would have had 1800 yards if given the holes that Forte had in 2008?
I remember laughing at that statement.. Well, seeing him now, I think he could have gained 4,5-5 ypc.. With the 316 carries Matt Forte had in 08, that would be 14-1600..
Missed potential...
I read somewhere that the Bears found out that he was allergic to Gluten and that was why he was always fatigued. Unfortunately, that was around the same time he had those several incidents with the law. I think Tank was having his issues with his unregistered guns at the time too.
by Silence_Dogood on Jan 22, 2010 7:02 AM CST up reply actions
Interesting
I never heard of his gluten allergy. To me, it’s just another fail by coaches and management to get the best out of a talented player.
"But it doesn't matter what I do, what I choose. I'm what's wrong. This is fate" - Dexter season 4....I mean Lovie season 6.
good point propheteer
I’d say the Bears staff was the bust in Benson’s case.
"I am not an animal!" - Merrick
In a recent interview
Benson blamed the scheme in Chicago. And, oh yeah, there was this:
Initially, Jones tried to take Benson under his wing but Benson rebuffed him and the battle lines were drawn. Soon, the pair clashed and their uneasy alliance finally erupted during the 2006 season with Benson claiming Jones punched him in the face during a running backs drill in practice before a Week 6 game against Arizona.
Benson’s alcohol related incidents didn’t help his cause for sure but I have a hard time calling him a bust. Immature, irresponsible…sure. A muti-million dollar contract and the potential for NFL immortality can be a very heavy cross to bear for a young man.
"More cowbell" - Bruce Dickinson
"More bell cow" - Lovie Smith
by spleensplitter on Jan 22, 2010 10:48 AM CST up reply actions
Especially
when someone loves to party out on his boat in a public lake. He was gluten gluton for punishment!
"But it doesn't matter what I do, what I choose. I'm what's wrong. This is fate" - Dexter season 4....I mean Lovie season 6.
Ouch!
This is gluten out of hand.
"More cowbell" - Bruce Dickinson
"More bell cow" - Lovie Smith
by spleensplitter on Jan 22, 2010 11:23 AM CST up reply actions
The wild card is...
..how will the player perform once he’s signed the big contract. I think even minimum wage for a rookie is still between $100-300,000 that’s a lot of money for a 21-22 year old. Does the player go full steam ahead or does he coast from payday to payday?
Is it just me...
…or does his hair look like Lego Hair? Like someone set it on his head, pushed down, heard the click and was like “awesome! let’s play draft!”
I'm a firm believer in the philosophy of a ruling class. Especially since I rule. -Randal Graves
I want and/or need followers. http://www.twitter.com/kdoggers
You may be onto something there
Slap some glasses, receding hairline, some old spice and suit and you might have it.

Money
Drafting the right player for the team does not matter anymore. It comes down to two things:
1. The position of the draft pick. If you needed a punter, would you draft him #9? And then due to the way the system is so screwed up, pay him #9 money because he was drafted #9, not because he was needed? NO
2. The ability to sign the pick (regardless of position). If I’m the agent for a player drafted #9, I am going to demand almost as much as the #8 pick. Doesn’t matter what the prior player’s pedigree is, if my player was drafted #9, and #8 received $1million. My #9 player should get just under that sum of money.
Thanks, Mike
I'm going to Randy Hundley's fantast camp 7 days
one big bust indicator (for 3 years at least)
is if the guy won’t stop sobbing like a little girl after he is drafted.
By the way...
…you may want to loosen the definition a little bit, since, depending on what expectation we are talking about, Aaron Rodgers might be considered a bust, as he did not play at all the first three years. (The Aaron Rodgers rule, perhaps?)
On the one hand, he was backing up Brett Favre for those three years, so there were few expectations of him in the first place. But he was also one of the top two quarterback talents in the draft, and like a lot of players in his position, he was expected to start and contribute right away.
He was drafted as the best available player in his position, didn’t fill a need at the time, had a high amount of value, because Thompson loved him etc. But he has been a star in the making when he has played. Just my two cents.
Good points
but he did fill a need: to learn from and eventually replace the quarterback that refused to retire There’s a lot to be said for being in the right place at the right time.
"More cowbell" - Bruce Dickinson
"More bell cow" - Lovie Smith
by spleensplitter on Jan 22, 2010 1:22 PM CST up reply actions
Rodgers is a good example of expectations meeting reality...
He was drafted because he was a really good talent, but they had a really good talent already.
He and the fans had zero expectation of his playing, and when he did play he played extremely well.
Associate Writer - WindyCityGridiron.com
Oh and by the way
kudos for managing to use the words “anatomy” and “bust” in the title. :)
"More cowbell" - Bruce Dickinson
"More bell cow" - Lovie Smith

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