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Amazing Stat (Pt.2) UPDATED

Recently, WCG member Seejay wrote a fan post that knocked the Chicago Bears for having only drafted four players in the Lovie Smith era that are currently starting on their defense: A. Afalava, K. Payne, Z. Bowman and T. Harris.

Four other players that were drafted by the Bears at one time are also currently starting: B. Urlacher, L. Briggs, A. Brown, C. Tillman.

I wanted to find out for myself how these figures stacked up against the rest of the league. This post is not meant as an attack on Seejay, but was done merely to educate myself and others on where we stand. Follow me past the jump to see how the Bears fared in comparison...

Star-divide

Update: I've broken this down into two tables to help clear up the confusion.

Defensive players currently starting for the team by which they were drafted, since 2004. Meaning only players drafted in the Lovie Smith/ Bears era.

NFC North
Bears: 4
Lions: 3
Packers: 5
Vikings: 5
NFC South
Buccaneers: 7
Falcons: 6
Panthers: 5
Saints: 4
NFC East
Cowboys: 5
Giants: 7
Eagles: 4
Redskins: 3
NFC West
Cardinals: 4
49ers: 6
Rams: 5
Seahawks: 5
AFC North
Bengals: 5
Browns: 4
Ravens: 4
Steelers: 3
AFC South
Colts: 5
Jaguars: 7
Texans: 7
Titans: 5
AFC East
Bills: 4
Dolphins: 3
Patriots: 4
Jets: 4
AFC West
Broncos: 2
Chargers: 5
Chiefs: 5
Raiders: 4

Defensive players currently starting for the team by which they were drafted, all time. Meaning, the number of players drafted above plus any players drafted pre-2004.

NFC North
Bears: 8
Lions: 3
Packers: 6
Vikings: 6
NFC South
Buccaneers: 8
Falcons: 7
Panthers: 6
Saints: 4
NFC East
Cowboys: 7
Giants: 7
Eagles: 6
Redskins: 4
NFC West
Cardinals: 7
49ers: 6
Rams: 6
Seahawks: 6
AFC North
Bengals: 5
Browns: 4
Ravens: 7
Steelers: 6
AFC South
Colts: 7
Jaguars: 9
Texans: 7
Titans: 5
AFC East
Bills: 6
Dolphins: 5
Patriots: 7
Jets: 6
AFC West
Broncos: 2
Chargers: 6
Chiefs: 5
Raiders: 5

Notes: Team's draft histories were referenced from databasefootball.com. Depth charts were referenced from various sites, mostly cbsports.com and the official team pages, when available. These depth charts were adjusted, from the best of my knowledge, to account for players such as Urlacher, who normally start but were injured.

•••

So, what do all these numbers mean?

Taking the information above, the league average of players starting for the team they were drafted on, since 2004, is 4.7 per team. The Bears are below average, but not by much. However, the league average of players starting for the team in which they were drafted on, overall, is 5.7 per team. The Bears are well above average there.

The numbers being what you see, are the Bears holding on to players too long? Should we be starting someone over Brian Urlacher? Lance Briggs? Alex Brown? Charles Tillman?

Are teams like the Buccaneers, Jaguars, and Texans better off than teams like the Broncos, Lions, and Steelers simply because they have more recently drafted players starting for their defense?

My take on all of this... these numbers mean absolutely nothing. Teams operate differently throughout the NFL. Some teams build through the draft. Some tend to acquire big name players when they hit the open market. Some do both.

I have stated it before, but I wholly support a business that promotes from within. The Chicago Bears are that type of organization. While I'd like to see big names being brought in every so often, I firmly stand by the decision to reward a player with a new contract if their play on the field merits one.

What are your thoughts?

•••

Fun fact of the day: The Cincinnati Bengals have drafted 15 players with the last name Johnson. This number doesn't include players that they have acquired via free agency. Their 2009 roster consist of five guys with the Johnson surname and one guy who, until recently, sported the name.

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Comments

Display:

7-9 and no playoffs for 3 years

The Bears evaluation, drafting and development of players is clearly a FAILURE.
Promoting withing when unable to evaluate, draft or develop players has clearly FAILED.

by No It All on Jan 22, 2010 4:05 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

agreed...

but off point as far as the post. They clearly need to draft an impact player or 2 on either side of the ball.

by Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. on Jan 22, 2010 4:27 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

which of course..

will be nearly impossible this coming draft, unless picks are traded for, or we get another late round miracle..which I don’t see as likely..

by Pretender85 on Jan 22, 2010 4:51 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

We definately need a couple of "miracles" in this draft

On both sides of the ball. Angelo has found middle and late round gems in the past. He needs to do it again this year, possibly to save his and Smith’s jobs…

"Yes, risk taking is inherently failure-prone. Otherwise, it would be called sure-thing-taking." - Jim McMahon

by JimmyMack on Jan 22, 2010 8:39 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

They need at least two

players drafted who have an impact for ’10.

"But it doesn't matter what I do, what I choose. I'm what's wrong. This is fate" - Dexter season 4....I mean Lovie season 6.

by propheteer on Jan 23, 2010 9:50 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

It depends

on what they do in free-agency. I’ll put my Bear priorities in order of importance whether it be through the draft or not.

1. DE – not sure what their plan is after the Adams’ tragedy, but I can’t imagine they’ll draft another project at the defense’s most important position.
2. FS- a ballhawk has been needed back there since the SB.
3. RT/LG- it sounds like Omi is staying put at LG, so naturally they should draft or sign a starter at RT to add depth.
4. RB- I want Chester Taylor, Chester Taylor, Chester Taylor! – if not, draft a late rounder or better bargain in FA.
5. WR- not a huge need anymore with the emergence of the young gun- I’d prefer a veteran, big, tall WR for another red-zone option. Please Malcolm Floyd.

"But it doesn't matter what I do, what I choose. I'm what's wrong. This is fate" - Dexter season 4....I mean Lovie season 6.

by propheteer on Jan 23, 2010 10:37 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

My perfect scenario

Would be using free-agency with a heavy hand.

Grab Chester Taylor, J. Peppers and Malcom Floyd. I agree that WR isn’t a huge need, but with Hester, Opportunity Knox and Aromashodu being dinged up a little in 09’, I certainly feel one more solid WR is needed.

I don’t hate Manning at FS, but not confident he’s the answer either. Maybe we draft a true FS and see how that turns out for a change.

by rdent4hof on Jan 23, 2010 11:26 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

My perfect scenario is close to yours...

CT, JP, and instead of a WR, pick-up a veteran safety like Antoine Bethea, Roman Harper, or Darren Sharper. With Urlacher being healthy again, they would be a force to be reckoned next season.

Round and round ya go, where ya stop only Homie knows..spin your dumb ass!!! Homie D. Clown

by Bears fan 4-ever!!! on Jan 23, 2010 11:58 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I wouldn't complain

Especially if Iglesias can be developed.

by rdent4hof on Jan 23, 2010 12:12 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Mos def

I think we all agree that they need to be heavy players in free-agency this year.

"But it doesn't matter what I do, what I choose. I'm what's wrong. This is fate" - Dexter season 4....I mean Lovie season 6.

by propheteer on Jan 23, 2010 1:10 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I vote executions. lol

Round and round ya go, where ya stop only Homie knows..spin your dumb ass!!! Homie D. Clown

by Bears fan 4-ever!!! on Jan 23, 2010 2:19 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm with ya, but not lol. jk, but seriously

In reality they will tell us how close we are to being good and that it simply is not/was not necessary to make significant FA additions…

When you haven’t made the playoffs for 3 years and you are a $1 BILLION organization you do not make as few moves as possible and hope that it works (which i guarantee the Bears will do). What you (or good teams) do is make every improvement and acquisition possible ie, you err on the side of us being a non-playoff team 3 years in a row and needing all the help we can get. Even if we are “close” like they claim (every year) this strategy pays large enough dividends for there to really be no excuse not to.

by No It All on Jan 23, 2010 2:37 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I know what you mean exactly,

I keep hope alive because i am a die hard Bears fan, not because of what they say. If the past has taught me anything about this organization, it is exactly what you have just stated. I just hope that they get sick and tired of being sick and tired and make the changes needed. I know that is a stretch, but the reality is..Lovie is still our coach, JA is still our GM, TP is still the president, and the McCaskey’s still own the team. It doesn’t leave me any options but to hope for them to change as people or be eliminated in the future.

Round and round ya go, where ya stop only Homie knows..spin your dumb ass!!! Homie D. Clown

by Bears fan 4-ever!!! on Jan 23, 2010 2:46 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Next year

will be another 7-9 or 6-10 team then.

"But it doesn't matter what I do, what I choose. I'm what's wrong. This is fate" - Dexter season 4....I mean Lovie season 6.

by propheteer on Jan 23, 2010 2:41 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Being the true optimist..

i will go out on a limb and say 10-6 or 11-5. That just might get me laughed off this site. Like my pops use to say, “you can sh-t in one hand and hope in the other and see which gets full first.”

Round and round ya go, where ya stop only Homie knows..spin your dumb ass!!! Homie D. Clown

by Bears fan 4-ever!!! on Jan 23, 2010 5:07 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm usually a Bears optimist

but my prediction is based off No It All’s assumption that the Bears won’t be players in free-agency. JA has shown to sign free-agencts when the need is there, and it’s quite obvious the team has a few needs.

"But it doesn't matter what I do, what I choose. I'm what's wrong. This is fate" - Dexter season 4....I mean Lovie season 6.

by propheteer on Jan 23, 2010 6:52 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

i agree except

JP. he has said he wants to go to a 3-4 team. Aaron Kampman, however, will be available.

Makin' Copies

by suckmyditka on Jan 23, 2010 1:26 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I would love to see us get Kampman..

if he came back at 100% and stayed healthy. Those are two big what if’s. He would be a pretty big risk imo. He will be 30 at the beginning of the season. I do take into account that any player can be injured at anytime, but you have to weigh in his age and the type of injury he had. One of those, could still be a solid player if things go right or at the declining stage of his career no matter what.

Round and round ya go, where ya stop only Homie knows..spin your dumb ass!!! Homie D. Clown

by Bears fan 4-ever!!! on Jan 23, 2010 2:39 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Desperate need at WR !

Put the carack pipe down. Did anyone see our receivers this year ? We didn’t have a receiver until Week 16. Big tall gangly wide receivers people, that’s the trend that’s forming. V-Jack, malcom Floyd, Brandon marshall. Get us one of them Jerry …

by Irish Bears Fan on Jan 25, 2010 2:07 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Like the first three...

but I would put LG #1 and move Omiyale RT. DE is #2 priority. Both of these should be vets and NOT rookies. Both positions take time to develop and the LB corps is getting old. #3 has to be a top 10 FS, draft or vet, most likely a vet. #4, IMO, needs to be a STUD DT; a GIANT human gravity well! #5 can be the short yardage guy; C Taylor or perhaps Le’ron McClain at FB. A big vet WR could help, but it’s lower on the priority list. Also, CB depth should be looked over, depending on who is still with the team.

IT'S NOT TOO LATE TO FIRE LOVIE!

by LostInSTL on Jan 23, 2010 4:48 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

A big DT doesn't fit Lovie's scheme

So, naturally it’s not much of a need when the Bears have plenty of young DTs still developing that fit the mold. They’ve pretty much have already said Omi is staying put, and based on how much of a slow learner he is, I agree with keeping him at LG. The Vikes just drafted a RT late in the second round who came in and started right off the bat (Loadholt), but I’d prefer them going after a FA tackle. Signing FA O-linemen is definitely JA’s MO when filling needs up front. If the Bears can finally fix their FS problem, then CB won’t be much of a need cause Peanut and Bowman are solid.

"But it doesn't matter what I do, what I choose. I'm what's wrong. This is fate" - Dexter season 4....I mean Lovie season 6.

by propheteer on Jan 23, 2010 6:58 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

RB +1

Chester Chester Chester

by jay42 on Jan 25, 2010 12:22 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

relavent

Smudge said: “Some teams build through the draft. Some tend to acquire big name players when they hit the open market. Some do both”

We do neither.

Pretty sure that the point of this post was to refute the notion pos[t]ed by Seejay that the Bears have done a brutal job of drafting and developing their players into starters.

Sorry but all the optimism (or statistical maneuvering) in the world isn’t going to change the fact that we went 7-9 and haven’t made the playoffs for 3 years, largely due to the FAILURE of this team to draft and develop players (and then “promote from within”), while refusing to pay market value for players in free agency.

by No It All on Jan 22, 2010 4:56 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Neither?

How can we do neither? If what you’re saying is true, please explain how we’re acquiring players?

Whether you’d like to admit it or not, the Bears build through the draft. 8 out of our 11 defensive starters were drafted by us, which is tied for second most in the league. A good number of our backups were drafted by us.

I’m not claiming that they’ve been successful or unsuccessful at anything. I’m simply stating the facts. Take it how you will.

I agree that we’ve failed to develop players to reach their potential. But again, doncha think there’s more to it than just that?

And it’s not like this “promote from with” philosophy is new to this organization. Is this not a staple of the Bears organization? It’s just nice to complain about it when the team loses.

-------
"Newbie, if the next two words out of your mouth aren't 'See ya' then the third word will be 'Oh my god. My crotch. You've punched me in my crotch." - Dr. Percival Ulysses Cox

by smudgers on Jan 22, 2010 6:20 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Welcome to Earth

Sure we acquire players, just not good ones.

Nice to complain about it when the teams loses? You act as if us being a bad football team is some sort of new development. NEWSFLASH: we have not been to the playoffs for 3 years and just barely went 7-9 this season.

by No It All on Jan 22, 2010 6:35 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

And

you act as if we’re the Raiders or the Lions.

-------
"Newbie, if the next two words out of your mouth aren't 'See ya' then the third word will be 'Oh my god. My crotch. You've punched me in my crotch." - Dr. Percival Ulysses Cox

by smudgers on Jan 22, 2010 6:43 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

When have I ever

tried to convince you that we were good?

-------
"Newbie, if the next two words out of your mouth aren't 'See ya' then the third word will be 'Oh my god. My crotch. You've punched me in my crotch." - Dr. Percival Ulysses Cox

by smudgers on Jan 22, 2010 7:38 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Let's play the "what if" game

If Jay Cutler doesn’t single-handedly lose three crucial games with his turnovers the Bears make the playoffs, and no one really talks much about the failings of the defense. How about them apples?

"But it doesn't matter what I do, what I choose. I'm what's wrong. This is fate" - Dexter season 4....I mean Lovie season 6.

by propheteer on Jan 23, 2010 9:53 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

To be fair

If Jay Cutler & the O-line doesn’t lose three or more crucial games… But I’m picking up what you’re putting down propheteer.

by rdent4hof on Jan 23, 2010 10:00 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

That's fair

but the O-line didn’t throw rediculous passes into double and triple teams. You’re right though, they definitely deserve some blame as well.

"But it doesn't matter what I do, what I choose. I'm what's wrong. This is fate" - Dexter season 4....I mean Lovie season 6.

by propheteer on Jan 23, 2010 10:46 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

If Urlacher was healthy...

If Desmond Clark catches the easy touchdown pass in game #1, then Cutler doesn’t throw the interception to Jolley and then we go undefeated….

If only we had kept Mike Brown, who actually started 16 and had a career high 103 tackles…

If we had a better offensive coordinator, or coach or GM….

Hypotheticals are fun, but they can’t change our 7-9 record.

by No It All on Jan 23, 2010 2:13 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Hypotheticals and hyperbole.....

That’s about all I see on this thread. One group wants to talk about “what if” and the other group wants to act as if 23-25 over three years makes us the Lions.

Truth is this. The Bears are REALISTICALLY two or three solid acquisitions and a decent set of coordinators away from being a very good team. Ron Turner is gone. Issue one is fixed. Lovie won’t be the DC. Issue two is fixed. trained chimps could have done a better job with the talent on this team. I’m not saying that this is the best group of talent in the league, not by a long shot. But is anyone going to stand up and say that the Jets are? Or the Bengals? Or the Steelers? Or the Patriots?

Someone please take the time to look at the lack of success former patriots have had once leaving NE. Then match that against the success that former Bears have after leaving Chicago. Talent has never been the issue, despite the hyperbole. I have listened to so many complain about the talent we have one year and about how badly we need to get rid of this bum or that idiot. Then the very next year, I listen to the same group of armchair GMs talk smack about how stupid the front office was to let go of said bums and idiots.

There is a long list of very good players on other teams who were just bums in Chicago. And just as long of a list of bums who were somebody in NE. when are people going to start seeing that coaching and scheme have as much or more to do with a players success as the talent.

Here’s a little secret. Everybody in the league is an above average talent. Sometimes players don’t have the heart. Sometimes players are in a bad situation. And sometimes players play for bad coaches. When you start to see a pattern where players excel around the league after failing in the same city, you can start to point the fingers at the coaching staff.

Chicago never had a coach with a losing record until Jim Dooley in 1968. Since Dooley, Chicago has one coach who left with a winning record, Mike Ditka. Lovie has a winning record, for now, but is one 4-12 season from .500, and as easily as the Bears could turn it around next year, Lovie could just about as easily end up leaving Chicago as the 7th HC in 42 years under .500……

Some days it's not worth chewing through the restraints - T-Train.

Two things are infinite: The universe and human stupidity. And I am not sure about the universe. - Albert Einstein.

by T-Train on Jan 23, 2010 11:03 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

A lecture on hyperbole combined with a mention of chimps doing a better job?

Players leaving here and doing well is a complete indictment of the coaching staff, be it development or bad playcalling. The only problem is… NOW who are we going to hire to actually develop said players and call the plays, cause apparently no one wants to be here. And I’m not even sure Martz wants the job anymore – some part of him has to be looking at this and going “Hm, what’s wrong here.”

Don’t look solely at the talent level; I agree that players have to have some level of talent to play in the NFL. But we moved two CBs to WR, we keep moving Olsen into the FB spot every so often (and he still struggles at blocking), our first round LT was playing RT most of the year, Omi and Shaff were out of position, Pace’s awesome pass-blocking talent doesn’t mean he’s an awesome run-blocker, and D. Manning STILL doesn’t have a position. Talented players? Yes. Talented players learning new positions or playing out of position? Yes. That’s also on the coaching staff.

Oh… and as easily as the Bears could go 4-12 or 3-13, I’m sure the Lions could go 12-4 or 13-3 just as easily.

by SJS_illini on Jan 24, 2010 8:34 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Touche.....

You could be right on the hypocricy of the chimps comment, though I’m not ready to cede the point that the trained chimps doing a better job is actually hyperbole…..;-)

But we agree completely in this. I dropped the question earlier: Can anyone name a player in the league that has been asked to wear as many hats as Manning has and been successful? I also wonder about how Devin Hester would have turned out had they used his considerable skill set at his natural corner position, instead of switching him to WR, where he didn’t actually want to be. Or Rasheed Davis. They tried to move Corey Graham to safety at it appears to have set him back as a CB. They bring in Pace, who is well past his prime and a liability in run-blocking, meanwhile stunting Williams growth at LT and avoiding what could have been a good-for-all-concerned battle for RT between Shaffer and Omiyale.

All of this points to horrendous coaching. And we will likely get another year of it. Who will be the next corner turned safety/WR and who will be the next safety turned nickel? I’m waiting to see them move Kruetz to guard and Omiyale to center. Nothing would surprise me with this staff.

Some days it's not worth chewing through the restraints - T-Train.

Two things are infinite: The universe and human stupidity. And I am not sure about the universe. - Albert Einstein.

by T-Train on Jan 24, 2010 5:09 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

oh......

The Lions thing? Exactly my point. Cept they suffer from WOS (Worthless Owner Syndrome) as much or more-so than we do.

Some days it's not worth chewing through the restraints - T-Train.

Two things are infinite: The universe and human stupidity. And I am not sure about the universe. - Albert Einstein.

by T-Train on Jan 24, 2010 5:11 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

excellent point No It All

Stats are sometimes valid and sometimes smoke and mirrors.
They are doubtless facts, but some facts are meaningless in the context of a 7-9 record.

"I am not an animal!" - Merrick

by Maelvampyre on Jan 22, 2010 7:46 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

What does being 7-9 last year

have to do with this post? I’ve simply compared the number of current defensive starters that we’ve drafted to the rest of the league. This post is not an attempt to justify a crappy season (or seasons) or be a smoke screen for it. Where are you people getting this from?

-------
"Newbie, if the next two words out of your mouth aren't 'See ya' then the third word will be 'Oh my god. My crotch. You've punched me in my crotch." - Dr. Percival Ulysses Cox

by smudgers on Jan 22, 2010 7:54 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

As fact filled as this post might be

just because we have 8 guys we drafted starting on our defense means absolutely nothing. Our defense sucks, all it means is we draft players and dont bring in FAs who are better to replace our crappy draft picks. So we have guys starting that we drafted, wooptie do. Where is this getting us? We have a mediocre draft and someone from it becomes a starter for us, it doesnt mean that that same person would be worthy of starting on any other team.

I love the facts and the optimism, but these facts lead us absolutely nowhere in the discussion of the welfare of our team.

"Nobody who ever gave his best regretted it. "---George S. Halas

by Halas is God!!!!! on Jan 22, 2010 11:27 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Jeebus H. Ditka!

Yes, people. I lean on the optimistic side in my general thoughts of this team. I truly believe in the notion that things are never as bad or as good as they seem to be.

However (and yet again), what does this post have to do with my “optimism?” I recognized, in the write-up (found here), that these numbers mean absolutely nothing and I never once said we were hitting home runs on our draft picks.

but these facts lead us absolutely nowhere in the discussion of the welfare of our team.

Really? But a picture that I post does? Or an article on dream casting? We create pieces for this site for different reasons. This post (again) is to clear the air on a debate that some of us were having. To educate all of us on where we stand, in this area, with the rest of the league. Nothing more. You can put down the tea leaves now.

-------
"Newbie, if the next two words out of your mouth aren't 'See ya' then the third word will be 'Oh my god. My crotch. You've punched me in my crotch." - Dr. Percival Ulysses Cox

by smudgers on Jan 23, 2010 4:45 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

we could draft all of our own starters

but if they are subpar players or we arent developing them into the players they could be this still means nothing. Our defense didnt do better because of this stat. If anything this stat shows us that maybe we need to use Free Agency more in our attempt to build a better team. This stat shows the rate of turnover and it appears that teams are more successfull when they acquire players through FA as well as developing their own. Promoting from within is a novel idea but only if the coaches are doing their job in player development. Are ours? It really doesnt seem as though thats the case.

"Nobody who ever gave his best regretted it. "---George S. Halas

by Halas is God!!!!! on Jan 23, 2010 8:44 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I agree.

I was never saying that everything is all peaches. However, we have been extremely banged up the past few years. I’m pretty confident in saying that it had a huge role in our downfall.

Like you said, the promote from within philosophy can work. We just have to get better at developing our players. And I’m not for keeping players just because, if they don’t merit a new contract or are eating unnecessary cap space and not performing, then I say move on.

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"Newbie, if the next two words out of your mouth aren't 'See ya' then the third word will be 'Oh my god. My crotch. You've punched me in my crotch." - Dr. Percival Ulysses Cox

by smudgers on Jan 23, 2010 11:13 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Circular reasoning

Injuries devastate this team because we lack depth/talent due to poor drafting/development and a reluctance to sign free agents.

by No It All on Jan 23, 2010 2:44 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Amen!

"Nobody who ever gave his best regretted it. "---George S. Halas

by Halas is God!!!!! on Jan 23, 2010 6:01 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

So the basic idea of this post is

The number of people that we draft who end up starting is basically average in comparison to the rest of the league (win/loss record aside). Right?

"Yes, risk taking is inherently failure-prone. Otherwise, it would be called sure-thing-taking." - Jim McMahon

by JimmyMack on Jan 23, 2010 10:15 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

yessir.

somewhat. We are a little below average recently (from 2004) and above average (including players drafted before).

The interesting thing to me is that the Ravens, who I’ve always thought we (somewhat) compared to, are one of the closest teams on this list.

-------
"Newbie, if the next two words out of your mouth aren't 'See ya' then the third word will be 'Oh my god. My crotch. You've punched me in my crotch." - Dr. Percival Ulysses Cox

by smudgers on Jan 23, 2010 11:18 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

You're off, just a bit.

Our evaluation is extremely hit and miss, but not a complete failure.

For instance, Briggs/Tillman/Urlacher/Afalava/Forte and quite a few others have been really good picks for us, while stuff like Okwo was just absolutely terrible. Bears are one of those teams that just tries to get too cute sometimes.

However the developmental aspect is without question a failure, I’d just place more blame on the coaching staff molding the talent than the scouting staff of finding it.

Associate Writer - WindyCityGridiron.com

by Sklz711 on Jan 23, 2010 9:33 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I thought about that also.

More blame should be placed on the coaching staff imo. I think all and all we have done quite well in the draft; but like you said, the developmental aspect of our young players is a failure or least suspect. There are a few examples of players that I do think came quite a ways this past year: Chris Williams, Johnny Knox, and Al Afalava. I still would have liked to have seen more Iglesias and Moore, especially considering the circumstances. When it comes to FA’s, our organization has not done a very good job at all since Lovie has been here. I am not a big fan of Omiyale so far and Kevin Shaffer still hasn’t won me over, eventhough they can both change my mind next season with solid play. KJ was a big mistake imo from the very start. I liked that they picked up Pisa, just bad luck due to injury. At the beginning of the season, i really felt that we had the best LB’ing core in the league, injuries killed us. With our situation in the draft presently, I sure hope they go out and pick up FA’s heavy this off-season. We are not far away from being damn good, a few key aquisitions can make all the difference in the world imho.

Round and round ya go, where ya stop only Homie knows..spin your dumb ass!!! Homie D. Clown

by Bears fan 4-ever!!! on Jan 23, 2010 1:49 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I would like to re-think the generalization that I have just stated...

about doing quite well in the draft. We have had a lot of defensive players brought in to fill spots to which those spots are still in need. I don’t know the exact year or order of those draft picks, but surely they have done poorly at filling needs at various positions on the defense. I know that is no such thing as drafting perfectly, but i think JA can do better than that. Or someone else for that matter.

Round and round ya go, where ya stop only Homie knows..spin your dumb ass!!! Homie D. Clown

by Bears fan 4-ever!!! on Jan 23, 2010 3:23 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Realized this by Sackman's comment further down the page.

Round and round ya go, where ya stop only Homie knows..spin your dumb ass!!! Homie D. Clown

by Bears fan 4-ever!!! on Jan 23, 2010 5:09 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

lol learn 1st my friend

your post shows you have no idea what it takes to have a winning football season. Of course the talent and development of said talent is very important but its not that simple. What it takes is 40+ 21-35 year old millionair youg men from all different kinds of backgrounds comming together for the same cause. Figure in a touch of luck and health issues and you begin to scrach the surface of what it “completly” takes.

by jay42 on Jan 25, 2010 12:20 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Interesting...

and Smudgers, you are a fact finding genius. lol Nice part 2.

Round and round ya go, where ya stop only Homie knows..spin your dumb ass!!! Homie D. Clown

by Bears fan 4-ever!!! on Jan 22, 2010 4:51 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Something that would be interesting.

But would take a lot of time that I don’t have. . Ok we have 4 players since ’04 that are starters, but how many defensive players have been drafted during that same span, and how many are not starters or are not even on the team now.

by rdr3131 on Jan 22, 2010 5:00 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

maybe

If I get a day off this weekend, I’ll look up all the data

by rdr3131 on Jan 22, 2010 5:01 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I haven't checked the validity,

but Seejay said it was 27 in the original post. However, I’d caution to be careful drawing assumptions from those numbers alone. I’d want to look at how those numbers compare with the rest of the league?

-------
"Newbie, if the next two words out of your mouth aren't 'See ya' then the third word will be 'Oh my god. My crotch. You've punched me in my crotch." - Dr. Percival Ulysses Cox

by smudgers on Jan 22, 2010 6:24 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Yes but
My take on all of this… these numbers mean absolutely nothing.

Well, actually they do. It means that 4 defensive players that were drafted by the Bears are no longer with the team, more than any other.

Good post. So who are the 4 and where are they?

"More cowbell" - Bruce Dickinson
"More bell cow" - Lovie Smith

by spleensplitter on Jan 22, 2010 5:06 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

read the post below to BF611.

-------
"Newbie, if the next two words out of your mouth aren't 'See ya' then the third word will be 'Oh my god. My crotch. You've punched me in my crotch." - Dr. Percival Ulysses Cox

by smudgers on Jan 22, 2010 6:41 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

What's with all

the words Smudgers? I want pictures. Just kidding

Interesting write up. Maybe the Bengals are on to something. We should try to acquire all the Devins.

by Fridge72 on Jan 22, 2010 5:06 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Interesting... very good topic.

A while back, I we were having a related discussion:

Bottom line, one of the main reasons our defense has declined: bad drafting.
We’ve drafted three DTs to play along Tommie Harris, and neither of them have proven to be good enough.
We’ve drafted 5 LBs to succeed Hunter Hillenmeyer, and none of them were good enough… and only one of them (Jamar Williams) is on the roster.
We’ve drafted 4 DEs to find a pass rush, and only one of them is on the roster (Anderson)
We’ve drafted 4 Safeties to play next to Mike Brown, and traded away the only guy who was good enough.

I think you’re focusing on the wrong number in this discussion. You’re trying to see how many drafted players are still on their original team.

I think you need to focus on draft success rate.
1. How many draft picks were spent?
2. How many of your draft picks are still on your team?
3. How many of your draft picks are on other NFL rosters?
4. How many draft picks didn’t even find a job in the league?

If the numbers on #2 and #3 are high… you’re at least doing a good scouting job, but perhaps you could be making bad roster decisions.

If #4 is high… then you’ve got a real problem. Your scouting department sucks.

"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)

Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)
.

by SackMan on Jan 22, 2010 6:23 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

You're completely right.

And that would be an interesting break down. It be great to have a scoring system, giving each player and category a rating. It would probably be a little difficult to figure out the rating system. For example, how many points would a 7th round pick count versus a 1st round pick? Do all of this league wide, and then see where the Bears fall.

My focus was simply to see where our numbers (from the other post) ranked in accordance to the rest of the NFL. If these numbers would have come out unfavorable to the Bears (and they still may to some), I still would have posted them, as is.

-------
"Newbie, if the next two words out of your mouth aren't 'See ya' then the third word will be 'Oh my god. My crotch. You've punched me in my crotch." - Dr. Percival Ulysses Cox

by smudgers on Jan 22, 2010 6:35 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Rating system might not be that complicated...

Assign negative points to a player depending on which round he was drafted: highest round has the most negative points, lowest round the least negative to reflect expectation based purely on round drafted (I was thinking a range of -700 to -100 in order of highest to lowest draft pick might be appropriate). Higher draft picks have more expectation, therefore more to prove. Then start adding positive points for defensive production. e.g. # of tackles/year =1 point, int./fumble recovery/year = +2 pts, sacks/forced fumbles +3 pts…etc. Since this is Friday Night Drunk Blogging (+5), this system probably isn’t perfect but could provide a basis for deeper analysis.

Anyway, I’m not going to compile the data (I wouldn’t wish that on anyone), but it’s interesting to think about. But the expectation I have is that an average draft pick would end up around zero, better and worse picks would be plus and minus, respectively. This scheme is probably skewed toward making lower round draft picks look better then they may be, but it’s a start.

Jake is right, we did have a band powerful enough to turn goat piss into gasoline.

by Chauncey Baker on Jan 22, 2010 8:39 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Wow, I didn't realize

we had went through that many defensive draft picks to fill spots that still need attention. That to me is amazing. That would definitely make the case for getting Quality FA’s. I would like to know the specific year and order in the draft these players were taken, that says a lot as well. I like the breakdown SM, makes it simpified to a layman like myself and a little more detailed.

Round and round ya go, where ya stop only Homie knows..spin your dumb ass!!! Homie D. Clown

by Bears fan 4-ever!!! on Jan 23, 2010 3:10 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Unless I'm misreading this, the thing that pops out to me is

the Bears have the lowest percentage of the picks as starters (50% 4-8). All the other teams have over 50% success rate. That would seem relevant in talent evaluation and development.

by BearFan611 on Jan 22, 2010 6:26 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Nope.
Defensive players currently starting for the team by which they were drafted.
Team: # since ’04 (Lovie Smith)/ # overall

Meaning 4 out of their 11 defensive starters were drafted ’04 or later, 8 out of 11 (original 4 + 4 more) that were drafted by the Bears. Urlacher, Briggs, Brown and Tillman were all drafted pre-Lovie.

-------
"Newbie, if the next two words out of your mouth aren't 'See ya' then the third word will be 'Oh my god. My crotch. You've punched me in my crotch." - Dr. Percival Ulysses Cox

by smudgers on Jan 22, 2010 6:41 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

for the record,

I changed the wording in the post to help clarify it a little more. Hope it does.

-------
"Newbie, if the next two words out of your mouth aren't 'See ya' then the third word will be 'Oh my god. My crotch. You've punched me in my crotch." - Dr. Percival Ulysses Cox

by smudgers on Jan 22, 2010 6:46 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks, it does.

Analyzing it now would indicate that the Bears issue is developing more impact players in the last few years since they have one of the highest percentages of drafted starters still in place prior to 2004. Obviously, there are no black or white answers here, but you could make the argument that Lovie’s staff hasn’t been able to take the talent he’s been solely responsible for and get more of them on the field.

I think it’s also interesting that the 3 teams with the worst percentage in this category are us, Steelers, and Ravens. All teams known for great defense, but also teams that seem to be on a downslide with a big reason being an aging defense. Here’s where the big contracts for our own players hurt us and we, as fans, are almost as guilty when we call for them “locking up” our favorites. Of course, if we had more faith in our management being able to bring in younger players and also develop them, it would make it easier to make that break.

by BearFan611 on Jan 23, 2010 9:31 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

funny.

I just was saying the same thing up top. Sorry for the confusion at first. I was trying to keep the post tight, and not let it get so lengthy.

-------
"Newbie, if the next two words out of your mouth aren't 'See ya' then the third word will be 'Oh my god. My crotch. You've punched me in my crotch." - Dr. Percival Ulysses Cox

by smudgers on Jan 23, 2010 11:21 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I like your analysis and

agree 100% with what you have just stated. I feel the exact same way and hope they can bring in some coordinator’s and assistants to do the most with what we get out of the draft and players we already have; furthermore, Lovie acknowledges and plays our talented up and comers before he is backed in a corner to do so. Everything has to work together for this to happen. I refuse to let go of faith/hope that they will be able to do this eventhough it seems to be tested year in and year out. I haven’t been a big Lovie fan since the SB game and despite how everyone feels about him, there is still a chance for him to change and earn my respect.

Round and round ya go, where ya stop only Homie knows..spin your dumb ass!!! Homie D. Clown

by Bears fan 4-ever!!! on Jan 23, 2010 2:12 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Good post.

And really good insight. Jerry Angelo has proven he can find talent through the draft. But none of this explains Dan Bazuin in the 2nd freaking round. And it certainly won’t forgive Michael Hayes in the 1st. Puke.

If you can't laugh at yourself you must not be very funny.

by Just Dave on Jan 22, 2010 7:29 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

garrett wolfe? in the 3rd

Mark Bradley in the 2nd. Come on Jerry?

by Ryan21 on Jan 22, 2010 11:07 PM CST via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

five guys with the Johnson surname and one guy who, until recently, sported the name.

A Bengal sported a Johnson?

If you can't laugh at yourself you must not be very funny.

by Just Dave on Jan 22, 2010 7:32 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

could be true.

-------
"Newbie, if the next two words out of your mouth aren't 'See ya' then the third word will be 'Oh my god. My crotch. You've punched me in my crotch." - Dr. Percival Ulysses Cox

by smudgers on Jan 22, 2010 7:39 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

A little off topic,

but the Texans have really done a great job at drafting. According to the post, they are 7-for-7 in the defense department. Remember when everyone thought they blew it when they passed on Reggie Bush and took Mario Williams. I just wish we had half the scouting they have.

The only time the Mets win is in the offseason.

by GouldisGold on Jan 22, 2010 8:57 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

thats a defense that has some major potential

id be excited if we had anything similar to their young talent on our squad.

"Nobody who ever gave his best regretted it. "---George S. Halas

by Halas is God!!!!! on Jan 22, 2010 11:32 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

The Steelers have had some mad hits in the first round over the last 10 seasons. Us, not so much.

"The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt." - Bertrand Russell
"F*** everybody outside of Halas Hall. BEARDOWN" - WavyGravy
"I don’t care if Belichick wins twenty Super Bowls. He’s an asshole." - Da Coach

by Spongie on Jan 23, 2010 1:40 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Well done

You make a great point

by Mathias-K on Jan 23, 2010 6:33 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

On a completely separate note >> wtf <<

-------
"Newbie, if the next two words out of your mouth aren't 'See ya' then the third word will be 'Oh my god. My crotch. You've punched me in my crotch." - Dr. Percival Ulysses Cox

by smudgers on Jan 23, 2010 7:52 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

+1

thats funny as hell

Round and round ya go, where ya stop only Homie knows..spin your dumb ass!!! Homie D. Clown

by Bears fan 4-ever!!! on Jan 23, 2010 1:54 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

One of my friends just sent me that yesterday, its amazing lol

(Asshole Sr) "If you learn one thing here, NEVER pass out in Ohio."

by ThorCo on Jan 23, 2010 2:25 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Mildly disturbing.

If you can't laugh at yourself you must not be very funny.

by Just Dave on Jan 24, 2010 12:04 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Correction.

Mildly disturbing.

by SJS_illini on Jan 24, 2010 8:35 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

What would we do without smudgers to point out endless opportunities for cultural enlightenment?

May the wind be always at your back, and may your placekicker have icewater in his veins.

by juperee on Jan 24, 2010 6:37 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I do what I do. ;)

-------
"Newbie, if the next two words out of your mouth aren't 'See ya' then the third word will be 'Oh my god. My crotch. You've punched me in my crotch." - Dr. Percival Ulysses Cox

by smudgers on Jan 24, 2010 7:23 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I'd agree that the numbers don't really say much

What difference does it make how many starters you drafted if your defense isn’t good? Unless your defense has been consistently top 10 then having high numbers may just mean that you play mediocre draft picks for too long. An additional figure that might be telling of the teams’ draft ability would be how many defensive picks the teams used during that time frame. That would give a ratio of how good teams are at finding starters, though still wouldn’t factor in whether those starters actually improved the defense.

Thanks for the effort putting that together smudgers. Gold star sticker for you.

by SaintCee on Jan 23, 2010 7:57 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Egg-friggin-xactly!

-------
"Newbie, if the next two words out of your mouth aren't 'See ya' then the third word will be 'Oh my god. My crotch. You've punched me in my crotch." - Dr. Percival Ulysses Cox

by smudgers on Jan 23, 2010 11:25 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm with you smudgers

Building through the draft (for the most part) and promoting from within are two philosophies I agree with. We’re just not the best at it. And we’re not the worst either.

Just very mediocre… Like our record.

by rdent4hof on Jan 23, 2010 9:48 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Great analysis

I’m not one to be overly critical on these numbers, cause the Bears seem to be “middle of the road” for the most part. The failings come from over-valuing the players who were dominant earlier in their careers. Ex…Harris, Ogun, A. Brown (love him but he’s just average), Anderson, Vasher, and Tillman.

"But it doesn't matter what I do, what I choose. I'm what's wrong. This is fate" - Dexter season 4....I mean Lovie season 6.

by propheteer on Jan 23, 2010 10:00 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

We may take a beating,

but I agree 100% on Brown. I love the guy, but he’s not as dominant of a force as people seem to make him out to be. Especially when our defense is predicated on a dominate front four.

-------
"Newbie, if the next two words out of your mouth aren't 'See ya' then the third word will be 'Oh my god. My crotch. You've punched me in my crotch." - Dr. Percival Ulysses Cox

by smudgers on Jan 23, 2010 11:25 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I think

Alex Brown plays like a very good left end. He stops the run pretty well and is occaisionally disruptive. Problem is he’s a RE and they need to cause constant disruption.

DEJESUS!!!

by tomas21 on Jan 23, 2010 11:27 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

agreed.

-------
"Newbie, if the next two words out of your mouth aren't 'See ya' then the third word will be 'Oh my god. My crotch. You've punched me in my crotch." - Dr. Percival Ulysses Cox

by smudgers on Jan 23, 2010 5:52 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

YES!

I’ve been for Alex Brown playing the left end for ever now

by Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. on Jan 25, 2010 9:40 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

The Bears consistently

extend the contracts of players who then quit on the team or stop playing well.

Considering the way the guys we kept have played, I’d say if anything the numbers are an indictment of Angelo for extending them, and Lovie for continuing to play guys who aren’t playing hard and/or effectively.

DEJESUS!!!

by tomas21 on Jan 23, 2010 11:26 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

That does seem to be a trend

It seems like the only guy who got a big contract who’s played up to that standard is Lance Briggs.

Of the others who got big contracts or extensions (Tillman, Vasher, Harris, Urlacher & Hester), none of them have made the Pro Bowl since they signed their big deals.

On a side note, Orland Pace got a pretty big contract as a free agent and as we all know, he basically turned out to be a major bust.

"Yes, risk taking is inherently failure-prone. Otherwise, it would be called sure-thing-taking." - Jim McMahon

by JimmyMack on Jan 23, 2010 11:41 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't think I'd put Urlacher in that category.

He did make the ProBowl after his first large deal and he’s been injured for most of the second contract. How he comes back in 2010 will speak volumes to his dedication. With that said, and I hate to beat a dead horse here, this all comes back to Lovie’s lack of leadership and not holding players accountable. I get the feeling he treats his “stars” like they don’t have to prove anything anymore. While they do deserve some preferrential treatment, no one should be handed anything or you’ll end up with a lot of guys are are fat and happy with their money and don’t feel the need to prove themselves all the time.

That’s the danger of this “he treats us with respect, like grown men” attitude these players have toward him. That would be fine if they acted like grown men and earned respect but, unfortunately, a lot of them don’t. To a certain extent, you can’t expect it because they’re very young men, most of whom have come from meeger beginnings and have had things handed to them because of their athletic talent. It’s pretty unrealistic to expect that type of upbringing to automatically bring a sense of responsibility with it. They need to be held accountable until they realize for themselves what a privilege it is to be a professional athlete and will take it upon themselves to maintain their performance. A coach has to help build that environment around them and also be astute enough to make a change when it’s clear any individual doesn’t hold himself to a high enough standard to make the team successful.

by BearFan611 on Jan 23, 2010 12:28 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Urlacher has played pretty well up until the injury this year

But being on the wrong of side of 30 and making as much as he makes ($10-$12 million, I believe), he needs to bounce back this year and start playing like a pro bowler, again – as Briggs has been able to do.

He bitched about the money in 2008, and the Bears gave it to him. Now, it’s time for him to step up.

"Yes, risk taking is inherently failure-prone. Otherwise, it would be called sure-thing-taking." - Jim McMahon

by JimmyMack on Jan 23, 2010 3:18 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Right with you on this.

He has no excuses for not performing going into 2010 and I think he will. If I’m wrong, then he needs to be let go.

by BearFan611 on Jan 23, 2010 9:08 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

How many probowlers have we drafted in that time?

Starting really doesn’t mean anything(on this team) seems like our better players are let go, traded, or sitting on the bench. But I was just wondering how many have we had. I think that’s a better judge than starting.

by Daseabeez on Jan 23, 2010 12:27 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Exactly

If our starters are sub-par and would not be starting on just about any other team, then so what!

So we have x number of draft picks starting, but went 7-9 and haven’t made the playoffs for 3 years. These stats are an obvious indictment of the organization, not a saving grace.

by No It All on Jan 23, 2010 2:28 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Great point.

Round and round ya go, where ya stop only Homie knows..spin your dumb ass!!! Homie D. Clown

by Bears fan 4-ever!!! on Jan 23, 2010 2:30 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I still think we have better talent than it shows.

Coaching and game scheme imo has a lot to do with 7-9. There is no doubt they have gotten rid of players that should’ve never been let go. That goes right back to Lovie and JA.

Round and round ya go, where ya stop only Homie knows..spin your dumb ass!!! Homie D. Clown

by Bears fan 4-ever!!! on Jan 24, 2010 5:31 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

How long has it been since we've made the playoffs?

I seem to have misplaced my broken record, and it appears that you have one.

That said… I agree that these numbers don’t look good for the organization. Not with the play over the past three years. I like the build through the draft, promote from within philosophy, but they really do need to get better at scouting and developing and coaching and on-field discipline and etc, etc…

It would also be nice to have a healthy defense for the majority of the season.

-------
"Newbie, if the next two words out of your mouth aren't 'See ya' then the third word will be 'Oh my god. My crotch. You've punched me in my crotch." - Dr. Percival Ulysses Cox

by smudgers on Jan 23, 2010 5:51 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed even Mr. Brown

Made it a full season on another team. We seriously need to look into that. Maybe it’s our sh1tty field or our reablitation staff. Either way the organization needs some fine tuning. And with our current owners I don’t see it happening. But some day we’ll be on top again.

by Daseabeez on Jan 24, 2010 2:42 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

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