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It's As Scary as Halloween: Bears 3rd Down Conversions

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A week ago, we made mention of the Chicago Bears conversion percentage on offensive 3rd down attempts.  Well, it didn't get any better yesterday, as the team went 0-12 against the Seattle Seahawks.  A quick snapshot of the season in that category:

Week 1:  6-14 (Det)

Week 2:  1-11 (Dal)

Week 3:  3-9 (GB)

Week 4:  0-13 (NYG)

Week 5:  3-15 (Car)

Week 6:  0-12 (Sea)   

Season:  13- 87 (14.9%)

Star-divide

 

I'm not going to spin these numbes, or assign any sort of predictive definition of what they mean or how they are impacting the season... just take a bit of time to digest the numbers, and let us know what your thoughts are.

Here are the pre-MNF numbers of the entire NFL in 3rd down conversion situations, just for a reference point.

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13. It's a magic number

by suckmyditka on Oct 18, 2010 8:31 PM CDT up reply actions  

Christ that is horrible.

WILDCARD BITCHES!!! YEEEEHHHAAAAA!!!!!

by Acreman20 on Oct 18, 2010 6:35 PM CDT reply actions  

WE SUUUUUUUUCCCKKKKK

no, really- 15%? is that a historic low or something? hands-up whoever’s willing to blame oline/poor pass protection
I know oline cant block 6 ppl, but we have 2 of the ‘better pass protecting’ backs in the league…and a 295(check tht) lb. TE…damn
i mean, jay cutler when he has time…is something we may not see this season…
…okay, but really, he can be peyton manningesque if he has time, especially with the martzfense

by BOBdaBEAR on Oct 18, 2010 6:43 PM CDT reply actions  

Just take a bit of time to digest the numbers.

And some Tums. A lot of Tums.

by oripunk3485 on Oct 18, 2010 6:49 PM CDT reply actions  

Two things I see wrong

1) The Offensive line Sucks A… No pass protection and no real push on run plays either. Another blog in this same page shows that it’s worst than the Raiders OL …enough said.

2) Greg “Fabio” Olsen doesn’t block worth crap. He plays as just a bigger than avergage receiver and not as a TE.

Martz can’t do much with the talent at the Line he’s got right now. At OT both Omiyale and Shaffer are really backup material and at LG Williams has proven for the second straight seasond that he’s a bust in the making.

"There are plenty of guys out there who are bigger, stronger, or faster than me, but there is nobody-and I mean nobody-who tried harder than I do on the football field." - Mike Singletary

by Jeesh on Oct 18, 2010 7:15 PM CDT reply actions  

One of the NFLN (I think) analysts said a few weeks ago that the problem with our OL was that they weren’t built to pass block… and they weren’t built to run block, either. I even think that was before the Giants game.

"44 years of football history and nothing to show for it. I wish I wasn’t banned at the Norseman.." - tfrabotta
"Fellas, what are they, unblockable? Is that the '85 Bears over there?" - Tom Coughlin, Giants '06 training camp
~~~ Check my profile for links for SB20 and America's Game: '85 Bears ~~~

by Spongie on Oct 18, 2010 8:03 PM CDT up reply actions  

Could well have been, now that you mention it.

"44 years of football history and nothing to show for it. I wish I wasn’t banned at the Norseman.." - tfrabotta
"Fellas, what are they, unblockable? Is that the '85 Bears over there?" - Tom Coughlin, Giants '06 training camp
~~~ Check my profile for links for SB20 and America's Game: '85 Bears ~~~

by Spongie on Oct 18, 2010 8:46 PM CDT up reply actions  

Idk i remember someone saying that

so you’re not imagining that ^_~

And it really seems like something the Dukes would say

13. It's a magic number

by suckmyditka on Oct 18, 2010 8:57 PM CDT up reply actions  

What are they good at then?

Lifelong Arizona Cardinals/Chicago Bears fan [I have always lived in Arizona, dad is from Chicago].

I can't stand fair-weather/bandwagon fans, stick with your team(s), throughout the good and the bad. And don't switch to whichever team wins the Super Bowl each year.

by JoeCB1991 on Oct 19, 2010 12:22 AM CDT up reply actions  

How bout one of those little curtains made out of beads then?

Lifelong Arizona Cardinals/Chicago Bears fan [I have always lived in Arizona, dad is from Chicago].

I can't stand fair-weather/bandwagon fans, stick with your team(s), throughout the good and the bad. And don't switch to whichever team wins the Super Bowl each year.

by JoeCB1991 on Oct 19, 2010 11:36 AM CDT up reply actions  

That would be actually be more useful than the OL – the jangle as they pass through unimpeded would provide an audible cue to Cutler to get the ball out of there.

"44 years of football history and nothing to show for it. I wish I wasn’t banned at the Norseman.." - tfrabotta
"Fellas, what are they, unblockable? Is that the '85 Bears over there?" - Tom Coughlin, Giants '06 training camp
~~~ Check my profile for links for SB20 and America's Game: '85 Bears ~~~

by Spongie on Oct 19, 2010 8:25 PM CDT up reply actions  

I think Martz called only passing plays on 3rd down

And at that point you wonder why teams don’t just bring the blitz every time.

Michael Robinson leads the Seahawks in completion percentage, yards-per-attempt, and QB rating.

by SSreporters on Oct 18, 2010 7:36 PM CDT reply actions  

That's it!

Run the ball on 3rd down! Problem solved!

One time while a young lad, someone made fun of the Ditka name. One time.

by Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. on Oct 18, 2010 10:55 PM CDT up reply actions  

They do blitz everytime.

I think Seattle just blitzed and sacked Cutler again. I saw it coming not sure why they didn’t. I need a head set in my house so I can tell them…

David Taylor's personal hype man. Check out his website unless you're a loser. http://www.cheekymonkeyart.com/

by Ditkavsworld on Oct 19, 2010 7:17 AM CDT up reply actions  

Also to note:

We’re not in a lot of second in short situations either, or third and shorts.

Part of it is predicated on the lack of quality first down runs to set the downs shorter.

Five foot three seems to thrive on his misery...

by awfullyquiet on Oct 18, 2010 7:45 PM CDT reply actions  

We're #1, we're 1, we're #1!!!

Oh nevermind….

If you can't laugh at yourself you must not be very funny.
I remain a pessimistically hopeful Bears fan.

by Just Dave on Oct 18, 2010 8:04 PM CDT reply actions  

in the NFC north...

that’s like being the tallest midget

13. It's a magic number

by suckmyditka on Oct 18, 2010 8:34 PM CDT up reply actions  

I meant we have to lead the league in worst 3rd down conversions

just like we now hold the record for most sack in a half. Hey look we hold a record!!!

If you can't laugh at yourself you must not be very funny.
I remain a pessimistically hopeful Bears fan.

by Just Dave on Oct 18, 2010 8:45 PM CDT up reply actions  

^_~

oh no i gotchya bruh. I caught what you were pitchin ayee

13. It's a magic number

by suckmyditka on Oct 18, 2010 8:52 PM CDT up reply actions  

4’ 10".

"44 years of football history and nothing to show for it. I wish I wasn’t banned at the Norseman.." - tfrabotta
"Fellas, what are they, unblockable? Is that the '85 Bears over there?" - Tom Coughlin, Giants '06 training camp
~~~ Check my profile for links for SB20 and America's Game: '85 Bears ~~~

by Spongie on Oct 18, 2010 8:46 PM CDT up reply actions  

Stand by!

The house of cards is ready!
Can’t convert 3rd downs,
… we are Zero for Shit from the one yard line,
… the Defense will be worn down before our “bye week”,
… and they’ll take Cutler off the field with a “Shop-Vac” during the Skins game.
There where some guys … (those that don’t smoke “store bought’s”) , on this site that where actually hallucinating about 7 & 1 in the first half.

pbanachi

by pbanachi on Oct 18, 2010 8:45 PM CDT reply actions  

6-2 is still possibley dawg

Remember, Washington and Buffalo are next.

13. It's a magic number

by suckmyditka on Oct 18, 2010 8:54 PM CDT up reply actions  

yeah but Washington has not looked as bad as everyone expected....

They kept up with Peyton Manning and he threw for over 300 yards and a couple of TD’s. It’s going to be an interesting game next week

by frenchbears113 on Oct 19, 2010 12:02 AM CDT up reply actions  

Sweet, Soldier Field has officially become the largest haunted house!

No, seriously. Add our 14.9% to the 40-50ish mark allowed by the defense, and things get ugly.

"Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win."

by GriggsBriggs on Oct 18, 2010 9:43 PM CDT reply actions  

Digging into the numbers a bit more......

…….is even more terrifying.

Since 2001, the Bears have never finished better than 18th in the league in 3rd down conversion rate.

Since 2001, no team has finished the season with a worse rate than the Bears’ current rate. (San Francisco in 2005 had a 24% 3rd down conversion rate)

by folky15 on Oct 18, 2010 10:54 PM CDT reply actions  

You know what's the most scary about this Bears offense?

When your second-string running back calls out the starting, supposedly franchise QB.

“We’ve got built-in hots when we’ve got safety blitzes,” Taylor said. “Jay is going to go watch film and learn from this and try not to make the same mistakes.”

Just dump the damn ball off! You do this enough times they stop blitzing!

"How do you know somebody is great? When you see how they respond to adversity. Anybody can man a ship when the waters are calm." - Jerry Angelo

by propheteer on Oct 18, 2010 11:13 PM CDT reply actions  

I also noticed that.

Even when it was clear that the Seahawks were bringing the heat (after a while it seemed like Seattle wasn’t even putting much effort into disguising the blitz), Cutler still kept looking downfield for the big bomb instead of attempting any short passes or dumpoffs.

But what I wanted to know is why Martz didn’t call for any shotgun formations. The line was getting killed out there and it might have made a difference.

Should have drafted Sanchez.

by Fearless Frog on Oct 19, 2010 1:07 AM CDT up reply actions  

He did versus the Giants

and we all know how well that wen’t. It’s just pure egomaniacal arrogance on both Jay and Mike’s part. They’re too stubborn to change their ways, and if they keep this up, they’ll both be out of a job real soon.

Btw- nice game by the Hawks; probably played their best one this season. I wasn’t surprised by the outcome, cause they were coming off their bye and the Bears seem to play better coming off a loss or when the chips are down.

"How do you know somebody is great? When you see how they respond to adversity. Anybody can man a ship when the waters are calm." - Jerry Angelo

by propheteer on Oct 19, 2010 8:36 AM CDT up reply actions  

The problem is what we do leading to third down

Most successful teams run on first down because they have a good back a decent to solid line and therefore pick up on average between 4-5 yards.
This already makes 2nd down a bit easier. You can now pound it again picking up another 3-4 yards well what do you know a 3rd and short. I’lll stop tormenting i do beleive forte is a very good back but this line just doesnt give him a chance to get atleast get a handoff. Most of the time people complain about the line not opening up holes, i wish we could complain about that! but forte is getting hammered as he gets the handoff.

Martz needs to something he hasnt had or done in previous offense. Use and use your big, fast and athletic weapon….Greg Olsen(i may make this a fanpost later this week). In most cases we are in 2nd and 10( if were lucky) this is where we need to split olsen out to create a mismatch, if its a lineback send him up the seam ill take olsen vs most lbs, if its a safety run a slant or crossing pattern plays like this should atleast pick up 4-7 yards. The offense needs to look at each down and try and get something rather than these 7 step drop massacres. Watching teams like tampa and atlanta(i effing hate those trashy birds) use their talented tightends ESPECIALLY on third down and the red-zone is frustrating because like it or not Olsen is a very talented player.
By the way last two games the passing game as stalled big time, Greg Olsen has no catches.

by Bear Lovin 21 on Oct 18, 2010 11:33 PM CDT reply actions  

It says we aren't a good offensive team

It’s one of the stats that has been a red flag all year that perhaps we’re overachieving. Bad 3rd down teams just don’t win, it’s hard for the defense to rest, it’s hard to sustain drives. Not good. We have to find a way to improve.

"I feel like the pieces are in place. But we have to execute...It's about execution. You have to execute. You have to have a scheme that facilitates the strengths of your players. If it doesn't, then it's a bad scheme. It's that simple. So we feel real good about the parts in place on offense."

"We feel very good about this football team. We felt very good about our football teams in the past and it's no different. You've got to go out there and you've got to do it."
-Jerry Angelo, Aug. 2, 2010

by Sam Householder on Oct 18, 2010 11:41 PM CDT reply actions  

I read earlier that the bottom 5 teams are somthing like

8-20(chicago is 4-2)

its chicago, detriot buffalo oakland and san fran …..check me on that but what you say is the truth Birthday man!

by Bear Lovin 21 on Oct 19, 2010 12:00 AM CDT up reply actions  

Anyone know what the record for worst 3rd down conversion rate is during an entire season?

Lifelong Arizona Cardinals/Chicago Bears fan [I have always lived in Arizona, dad is from Chicago].

I can't stand fair-weather/bandwagon fans, stick with your team(s), throughout the good and the bad. And don't switch to whichever team wins the Super Bowl each year.

by JoeCB1991 on Oct 19, 2010 12:24 AM CDT reply actions  

What about the flats

How come we don’t see like Taylor, Forte, Olsen, or Clark block and then release in the flats and/or underneath to help block then give Curler an outlet? Or maybe more screens left, right, middle. When u watch his offense when he was with the rams it seemed like Faulk was always catching passes in the flats after staying in to help block.

by More_champaign_Mr_Forte on Oct 19, 2010 3:36 AM CDT via mobile reply actions  

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