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Numbers Tell the Tale; a Horrific Tale

CHICAGO - OCTOBER 17: Jay Cutler #6 of the Chicago Bears waits for a play, "Well, we're waiting." (In best Judge Smails voice.) (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)

The coming of Mike Martz was supposed to usher in a new era of offensive potency and excitement.  After six weeks, this offense needs to get on some ED drugs to bring some vitality.  Bumbling, stumbling, and bad.  That's the best way to describe these guys today.  Nobody on offense is playing to their potential; coaches included. 

The offensive line is a league-wide joke.  The WRs still seem to run the wrong routes.  The QB is unfortunately concussed, confused, and indecisive.  The coaches have no answers, and from the looks of things, no clue.  Just how bad is it?

Star-divide

To gauge just how bad the Bears' offense is right now, we need to look back to week 3 first.  At that time the Bears were 11th in total offense and 5th in passing.  Their offensive DVOA (from Football Outsiders) was +3.8%, good for 14th in the NFL.  The Bears 3rd down % was bad at 29% and their RedZone TD % was 27%.  Those numbers had the Bears ranked 28th and 28th respectively...it has only gotten worse. 

BearsValueLeague Rank
Total YPG 285.2 29th
Run YPG 92.3 26th
Pass YPG 192.8 22nd
3rd Down % 18% 32nd
RedZone TD % 29% 31st
Offense DVOA -23.3% 30th
Run DVOA -5.1% 24th
Pass DVOA -27.3% 30th
Off Line Adj Yards 3.59 28th
Sacks Allowed 27 32nd
Sack Rate 12.4% 32nd

 

Epic fail in every category.  The Bears have just fallen off a cliff Junior Seau style (too soon?)

Jay Cutler's individual performance has also cratered.  After week 3, his stats looked like this:

He's completed 66% of his passes for 870 yards and 6 touchdowns vs just 2 interceptions.  His QB Rating is an impressive 109.7, good for 3rd in the NFL behind Peyton Manning and Michael Vick.  Jay's FO [thru week 3] DYAR ranking has him 9th in passing and 4th in rushing for QBs.

Cutler is currently 8 of 13 for 42 yards, 3 touchdowns and a QB Rating of 106.4 in the RedZone [thru week 3].

What about now:

Jay has completed 60.3% of his passes for 1,202 yards & 6 TDs vs. 3 interceptions.  He hasn't thrown a touchdown since week 3.  His QB Rating is still high at 93.2; good for 11th in the NFL.  With Football Outsiders, Jay has dropped to 25th passing overall with a DYAR of 71.   

In the RedZone, Jay is 9 of 17 for 48 yards, 3 touchdowns and a QB Rating of 98.3.  At first look, those numbers look OK.  But if you compare what he did in the first 3 weeks versus his last 2 games played, it doesn't look as rosy.  Since the Green Bay game, Jay is just 1 of 4 for 6 yards with zero TDs in the RedZone; that's bad.

 

Overall, the Bears offense is collapsing.  Whether it's the offensive line, Jay Cutler, Mike Martz, or a combination of all three is unclear.  What is known, is that improvements need to be made in all areas for this team to even consider making the playoffs.

Comment 71 comments  |  1 recs  | 

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No Doubt It's Ugly

But I wonder if after the first three weeks somehow defenses figured us out on film and Martz can’t adjust to it or something? Or maybe the few deficiencies we had in the first 3 games have exploded into everything else.

I will say though, I don’t think it’s all on Cutler, sure he’s held the ball too long but his completion percentage is still decent and he isn’t chucking interceptions like last year. His play has improved, unfortunately, the offensive line’s and the WRs play has not.

"I feel like the pieces are in place. But we have to execute...It's about execution. You have to execute. You have to have a scheme that facilitates the strengths of your players. If it doesn't, then it's a bad scheme. It's that simple. So we feel real good about the parts in place on offense."

"We feel very good about this football team. We felt very good about our football teams in the past and it's no different. You've got to go out there and you've got to do it."
-Jerry Angelo, Aug. 2, 2010

by Sam Householder on Oct 20, 2010 11:13 AM CDT reply actions  

The offensive line and Martz get most of the blame to me; however,

Jay doesn’t get off completely. The QB has to identify where the blitz is coming from too. How often do we see Peyton Manning stroll to the line and starting pointing all over the place at the defense. Some of that is just theatrics, but Manning does know where the blitz is coming from and gets the ball out before he can get creamed. Cutler is not doing that…at all.

by Mike Mueller on Oct 20, 2010 11:35 AM CDT up reply actions  

Very true

I’m just saying statistically he isn’t playing bad, unlike last year.

"I feel like the pieces are in place. But we have to execute...It's about execution. You have to execute. You have to have a scheme that facilitates the strengths of your players. If it doesn't, then it's a bad scheme. It's that simple. So we feel real good about the parts in place on offense."

"We feel very good about this football team. We felt very good about our football teams in the past and it's no different. You've got to go out there and you've got to do it."
-Jerry Angelo, Aug. 2, 2010

by Sam Householder on Oct 20, 2010 12:39 PM CDT up reply actions  

But with the wr's and te's not helping him how can he be?

The seahawks got most of their sacks because the wr’s or te’s let the def player opposite of them to blitz free at cutler and didn’t even slow them down. If they don’t know that there is nobody available to pick up that blitzer shouldn’t they at least bump them to give jay a few seconds to find somebody? Amazingly the line held up for most of the game but everyone else responsible for protecting jay failed, although I remember the rb’s saving him a few times. But I will not bitch about jay, think of allllllll the todd collins like qb’s we have had since brett mfing favre started for the packers. Jay is the answer not the problem he just needs some gawd damn help. The bears lead the division and I’m am nothing but pissed with how the rest of the season is looking to go. Sorry to rant. Now I can take a few deep breathes and calm down.

"It is better to keep your mouth closed and let people think you are a fool than to open it and remove all doubt". -Mark Twain

by pappabearhalas on Oct 21, 2010 12:43 AM CDT up reply actions  

though by your measure of statistically

you’re completely ignoring sacks altogether

follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com

by DartmouthCubsFan on Oct 20, 2010 2:50 PM CDT up reply actions  

There is a big difference though

Manning is allowed to call play audibles, protection, routes etc. From what we hear Cutler is allowed none of those just hope his players recognize and do what they are supposed to…. and it seems they are not.

by TheMan1 on Oct 20, 2010 7:56 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions  

your comparing a guy

that calls his own plays to a guy that is not permitted to audible. not to mention Manning has better pertection. i’m not saying that Cutler hasn’t had the opportunity to get rid of the ball sooner than he does, but Martz has taught him to look deep first and then come back to look towards his check downs.

now if you were the one making those types of progressions, do you think you could do that behind that line? by the time Cutler looks off the deep routes and starts looking to the short routes he has some defender bouncing his head off the turf.

in this scheme players are put into position to pick up those blitzs and they are not seeing them soon enough. Cutler is also too new to this system to be micro managing like Manning does in Indy. Nor is he allowed to.

by coolgjc on Oct 21, 2010 1:35 AM CDT up reply actions  

Not surprising at all

Anyone who thought going into the season with a bunch of scrap heap lineman and a bunch of 2 and 3 receivers and thought martz was just gonna Houdini himself a legit offense was sorely mistaken. It’s pretty obvious to me that pace, Warner, Faulk, Bruce and holt made martz and not the other way around.

And how come I can sit there and read the defense presnap and clearly see who is coming on a blitz off the edge but cutler and martz and the o line can’t seem to pick it up. I can’t remember how many times the offensive tackle cracked down on the defensive end and double teamed him with a guard while a linebacker or safety went right by them untouched and put another hit on cutler.

by lopey986 on Oct 20, 2010 11:26 AM CDT via mobile reply actions  

Yep

Even after this happened, Martz kept calling 4 receiver sets o n2nd & 3rd and long. With 4 WR and 1 RB, both tackles are uncovered, so what did Martz and Jay expect to happen differently? Every time the Bears went 4 receivers, Seattle blitzed on the outside. Even if Martz disagrees, it is possible to gain 10 yards with 1 TE or even, gasp, 2 TEs on the field.

by Mike Mueller on Oct 20, 2010 11:30 AM CDT up reply actions  

Betweens Martz's style of playcalling

A struggling line, average receivers, and Cutler doing his best while not always noticing the blitz, it’s not a good combination.

I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.

by Topher Doll on Oct 21, 2010 12:49 PM CDT up reply actions  

Is there a chance they fire Martz mid-season?

Or would that be too difficult logicistically? Not saying I’m for it, just wondering if in this new Lovie-accountability mentality if that’s a possibility.

Hope he’s not writing the 2011 White Sox Anal too. -Sox Machine

by Jack M on Oct 20, 2010 12:05 PM CDT reply actions  

Dunno

Haugh said on CTL there was a SMALL chance of martz getting fired if the offense does not improve before / by the bye week…..

There are 3 types of people in the world:

1.) Those who make things happen
2.) Those who watch things happen
3.) And those who wonder "What the FUCK just happened?!"

Right now I am at number 3 when watching the offense.....

-Mike Martz

by CloudyFuture on Oct 20, 2010 12:44 PM CDT up reply actions  

Fixed
ColonalColonel Sanders.

David Taylor's personal hype man. Check out his website unless you're a loser. http://www.cheekymonkeyart.com/

by Ditkavsworld on Oct 20, 2010 4:01 PM CDT up reply actions  

None.

It’s widely known that Martz’s system is incredibly complex and requires significant time to fully understand and implement. IF (i wish I could make it bigger) Cutler and the rest of the O can survive the growing pains of the system, it can be successful.

Having shared that bit of Captain Obviousness, we still have a major talent gap. Filling that gap will also take time and resources. Time and resources I am not thinking the organization is willing or able to commit.

Ugh. Now you all can understand my moniker.

If you don't ask, you don't get. So get on with it already.

by Suffering from Chicago Sports on Oct 20, 2010 12:18 PM CDT up reply actions  

Take it easy,

it was a simple hypothetical question.

Hope he’s not writing the 2011 White Sox Anal too. -Sox Machine

by Jack M on Oct 20, 2010 12:21 PM CDT up reply actions  

That's a great point, which makes me believe that Martz really was a last resort choice....

since this coaching/FO staff basically new it was win now or you’re gone, why would you choose an OC that has a system that notoriously takes more than a season to pick up fully. I know the people will come out who will say look at improvement with Kitna and Alex Smith but neither of those teams produced a winning record in that first season. That’s not Martz’ fault and those teams, like our Bears, had a lot of weaknesses so to expect a complete turnaround in one season was unrealistic at the very least.

I made this comment when the choice was made that I thought it was a bad decision based on this fact. To me, a team who is rebuilding and doesn’t expect to contend for a couple of years is where Martz’ system is better suited. Even though I really was tired of Turner and Hiesand, if I were Lovie, under the circumstances, I would have kept them on for another year and give Cutler the benefit of having the same system for two consecutive years and I’ve always felt that would give them the best chance to contend for the NFC North title this year.

THIS DOESN’T MEAN I THINK TURNER IS A BETTER OC THAN MARTZ!!! Again, I just think that under the circumstances it would have been the better route to take if the “win now” claims that Bears’ ownership made after the season are true.

by BearFan611 on Oct 20, 2010 5:39 PM CDT up reply actions  

After Cutler's next, inevitable, concussion behind this line Caleb Hanie will get plenty of opportunity to start.

Hopefully Hanie will do well,and we’ll know whether we have something in him or look to get a QB to develop in the next draft. If he does really well his trade value should rocket up assuming the Bears decide to continue with Cutler. The last thing I want to see happening is Hanie leaving the team when his contract expires without any compensation.

by BigGeorgeTX on Oct 20, 2010 12:10 PM CDT reply actions  

Epic FAIL on the coaching staff.

I said on yesterday’s daily that, as a team we look unprepared and confused. Lack of skills notwithstanding, the schemes aren’t right and the players are not well coached.

We look like we have no idea what to do.

If you don't ask, you don't get. So get on with it already.

by Suffering from Chicago Sports on Oct 20, 2010 12:23 PM CDT reply actions  

Amen...no idea at all....how many unabated to the QB this week?

"Yes, risk taking is inherently failure-prone. Otherwise, it would be called sure-thing-taking." - Jim McMahon

by bearsfn9 on Oct 20, 2010 12:37 PM CDT up reply actions  

Kinda of sad

that those numbers would make me wish for ron turner eh….All that talk on how martz improved the lions and san fran offenses and can not do jack with the Bears….

Which makes me wonder if ron turner is loving this……

There are 3 types of people in the world:
1.) Those who make things happen
2.) Those who watch things happen
3.) And those who wonder "What the FUCK just happened?!"

-Mike Martz

by CloudyFuture on Oct 20, 2010 12:38 PM CDT reply actions  

Cutler's numbers since week 3 are for one game..

He is playing leaps and bounds ahead of where he was last year. The receivers (espeically Mr. Knox!!) are ok. But the sacks, the o-line – very, very, very bad. If Martz is to blame for something, it is magical thinking – trying to run his offense without remembering the context of the skill level of the offensive line. Until he gets this, running the offense will be like trying to race in nascar with a hot-looking car, but a $hi!!Y engine under the hood.

by DisCUBbobulated on Oct 20, 2010 12:39 PM CDT reply actions  

Correction.. 1 1/2 games...

But the first half against the giants doesn’t even count as a scrimmage, much less a 1/2 a game..

by DisCUBbobulated on Oct 20, 2010 12:41 PM CDT up reply actions  

Epic FAIL.....

Since the hiring of Lovie Smith. Awful head football coach and leader.

by Cards67 on Oct 20, 2010 12:40 PM CDT reply actions  

I'm confused with all the Lovie bashing

Here’s the thing…

In 6 full seasons Lovie has 2 playoff births, an NFC title, and Superbowl appearance. His worst season was understandably his first one at 5-11. The following years he’s gone 11-5, 13-3, 7-9, 9-7, and 7-9. In his 7th season he’s currently 4-2 with a one and half game lead in the division 6 games in. Honestly how awful is he really?

We can’t have it both ways. We can’t scream about how bad the personnel is but then talk about how bad the coach is. Because if the coach is that bad shouldn’t his win/loss record be worse? Do you think he’s overachievied with the roster he’s had through the years? If not then why aren’t we giving him credit for doing more with less? I’m not saying that Lovie hasn’t made some mistakes because he has but it isn’t Lovie’s fault we have the worst O-line in football. I may catch a beat down for these comments but honestly Lovie isn’t really that bad of a coach.

Yeah but it worked!

by Dils on Oct 20, 2010 1:09 PM CDT up reply actions  

He Could Have Done a Whole Lot Better

Lovie dumped Ron Rivera then he got rid of Thomas Jones and gave away Chris Harris for awhile then he dumped Alex Brown, these were all good players who could have helped the Bears and instead hires his cronies (Archuletta, Pace) who let him down all the time.

He is stubborn as a mule. If we had a better coach we could have done a whole lot better.

by Gaak on Oct 20, 2010 1:25 PM CDT up reply actions  

And, Tommie Harris...

Guy has all the talent in the world but won’t use it. Lovie is a player’s coach, an “I got your back” kind of guy. Then he ignores the questions of the media and fans, in favor of protecting players.

by celerysalt on Oct 20, 2010 1:28 PM CDT up reply actions  

Lovie dumped Ron Rivera then he got rid of Thomas Jones and gave away Chris Harris for awhile then he dumped Alex Brown

Are all of those Lovie decisions? Or Angelo?

by rdent4hof on Oct 20, 2010 1:45 PM CDT up reply actions  

Does it matter anymore?

They’re starting to feel like 2 sides of the same bad penny.

Nobody who ever gave his best regretted it. -George Halas

by Allie on Oct 20, 2010 2:17 PM CDT up reply actions  

I know what you mean

And to a point, I agree.

But in this particular scenario; Thomas Jones, Chris Harris, Alex Brown

Gaak said those were Lovie’s decisions.

 I do not believe they were.

by rdent4hof on Oct 21, 2010 9:46 AM CDT up reply actions  

Yeah I agree with you on some of that

I think that the decisions made after the SB loss have been the death nail for this franchise. The Archuletta/Chris Harris decisions was possibly the worst for Lovie.

But Angelo is the real culprit here. You have the ’07 draft with the Dan Bauzin draft pick which has crippled this franchise and may have been the worst pick by Angelo. OT Ryan Harris was just sitting there begging to be drafted in the 3rd round but no, Angelo just had to have another DE. Then he grabs Wolfe and Okwo in the 3rd. We are literally feeling the repercussions of that draft this year.

Yeah but it worked!

by Dils on Oct 20, 2010 1:48 PM CDT up reply actions  

With the 5th highest payroll, complete coaching control and years to settle into a team

I expect better than a tad over .500 win %. Maybe its just me but with the most historic franchise, revenue, and time we should be a better football team. Lovie is the head coach and 500 doesn’t cut it in my opinion. Also the steady decline is more than a bit alarming.

by TheMan1 on Oct 20, 2010 3:02 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions  

Also

Many decisions fall solely on Angelo, I agree but Lovies teams have had talent it just seems playing below talent level has become the norm and that underproduction falls solely on Lovie.

by TheMan1 on Oct 20, 2010 3:05 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions  

Some of your stats are misleading...

The first 3 years are fine, but then he takes a team, who was one of the youngest in the NFL at the time, from SB appearance to a losing record with essentially same group. Then he misses the playoffs again because his team and players were unprepared for the last game of the season against the Texans who had nothing to play for. The following year they make one of the biggest off-season moves in the history of the NFL by getting Cutler and, don’t forget signing Orlando Pace (who I would have to think Lovie had a lot of input on)and actually went backwards. Throw in some of the decisions regarding his coaching staff (Rivera, Babich, Lovie as DC) and former players (Archuletta and Pace) and I think the bashing has merit.

His 2 playoff appearances were with teams that were largely built around players from Mark Hatley and Dick Jauron but since Lovie signed his new deal and has had more say in the overall team, they have regressed. Let me stress that I am not absolving Angelo for poor personnel decisions in any way but we can’t let Lovie slide in this area either. This year, obviously, still has to play itself out but with what’s happened the last 3 weeks, it’s starting to go the other way. Hopefully, they can turn it back around against Washington and Buffalo.

by BearFan611 on Oct 20, 2010 5:55 PM CDT up reply actions  

In 6 full seasons Lovie has 2 playoff births

Berths. If he did become a father twice during the playffs, though, that might explain (if not excuse) his performance as a head coach.

"44 years of football history and nothing to show for it. I wish I wasn’t banned at the Norseman.." - tfrabotta
"Fellas, what are they, unblockable? Is that the '85 Bears over there?" - Tom Coughlin, Giants '06 training camp
~~~ Check my profile for links for SB20 and America's Game: '85 Bears ~~~

by Spongie on Oct 20, 2010 7:33 PM CDT up reply actions  

Why, cause he lead a team to the Super Bowl with an average quarterback?

He’s struggled since then, but he put together some of the best defenses of last decade.

I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.

by Topher Doll on Oct 21, 2010 12:50 PM CDT up reply actions  

welcome to the suck

the failure of this offense can be put on the 5 (sometimes 6 or 7) up front. Yeah, Jay sometimes Jay can’t spot the corner or safety blitz (he’s concussed man) and sometimes Martz runs the spread which leaves him as a sitting duck. Sometimes I think they break that huddle and wonder – what am I supposed to do on this play?

But these guys … these guys suck.

by junkhorse on Oct 20, 2010 1:13 PM CDT reply actions   2 recs

What's scary is that Angelo last year said that the future of the O-line is already on the roster.

1st round LT with injury issues
A 32 year old LG with no knee ligaments
An aging Center
7th Round TE that was converted to RG
A back-up free agent Tackle from Carolina

Some future if you ask me. Hopefully Jerry retires after this season like he has been speculating throughout training camp.

by Dominique Blanton on Oct 20, 2010 3:27 PM CDT up reply actions  

Agreed - he is absolutely clueless

If Jerry goes, it should also renew the interest of the fan base in this team.

by JimmyMack on Oct 20, 2010 5:05 PM CDT up reply actions  

Even Though Cutler Wont Admit It

I think he is still under the effects of that concussion he suffered during the Giant’s game.

by Gaak on Oct 20, 2010 1:19 PM CDT reply actions  

my understanding is they had a baseline EEG(and other tests) on Cutler...

…pre the concussion that knocked him out for a week. they compared the pre tests to the current tests and he came out ok. it would be hard for him to fake being well if an independent doc verified him well.

"I am a sinner who does not expect forgiveness. But I am not a government official." - Francis Wolcott

by Maelvampyre on Oct 20, 2010 2:34 PM CDT up reply actions  

My guess is even if the effects aren’t physical, the mental has to be playing a little bit. Knowing you are going to get pummeled about every other play by some 300+ dude can’t be settling on the nerves.

by TheMan1 on Oct 20, 2010 3:07 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions  

true enough about the mental aspect

…however, that is outside the realm of a concussion, and into the psychological end of things. having said that, do i agree that Cutler being possibly gun-shy could be a factor. the same ‘gun-shy’ aspect could be said of the entire offensive line now, their confidence is shot.

"I am a sinner who does not expect forgiveness. But I am not a government official." - Francis Wolcott

by Maelvampyre on Oct 20, 2010 8:56 PM CDT up reply actions  

o-line + offensive problems

Yes, I think the same way about Cutler too, I think he hasn’t had enough time to fully recover. Still trying to figure out the roster moves from yesterday, shuffling D-Linemen between the roster & PS…we need O-lIne help worse than any team in the league…and Charles Grant gets cut without ever having a chance to play?? Angelo is the one to blame for all this… the guy had 6 months!!! to fix the problems and ignored all of it.

by walterfan34 on Oct 20, 2010 2:03 PM CDT reply actions  

How close are these numbers to Martz's

time in Det or SF?

He’s always been mediocre in the 3rd down and red zone stats, I just don’t know how to figure out how close to par this seasons been.

Nobody who ever gave his best regretted it. -George Halas

by Allie on Oct 20, 2010 2:13 PM CDT reply actions  

In Keeping With the ED analogy...

…dare one say the offense is flaccid?
Clearly, we’d prefer tumescence.

"I am a sinner who does not expect forgiveness. But I am not a government official." - Francis Wolcott

by Maelvampyre on Oct 20, 2010 2:31 PM CDT reply actions  

You know, Maybe just maybe the

Martz offense is obsolete. Hell it’s been a decade since “The greatest show on turf”. It’s possible that defenses are simply faster and better equipped to stop the Martz offense and his philosophy. No different than the Run “N” Shoot. Then throw in the fact that the O-line is bad and you have what we have now. I hope it isn’t obsolete but it makes you wonder.

Yeah but it worked!

by Dils on Oct 20, 2010 3:14 PM CDT reply actions  

IMO it's still a viable offense

If you’ve got the right personnel. We’ve got (arguably) 3 out of the 4

1) QB – good
2) Fast WRS who can stretch the field
3) Versatile RBs – okay
4) O-line – not even close

Horrible O-line – this is probably the most important thing that we’re lacking.

by JimmyMack on Oct 20, 2010 5:09 PM CDT up reply actions  

agree with JimmyMack on this one

i posted elsewhere here in WCG that i simply could not believe that Martz got stupid overnight, and that includes his schemes. like JM said, you’ve got to have the right personnel and clearly we are lacking a working O line. what is possible is that we have found out that Martz is a scheme based Offensive Coordinator, and not a results based OC. meaning that he is a slave to his own schemes and finds it really hard to adapt to the talent he has to work with. i think most coaches are that way at times.

"I am a sinner who does not expect forgiveness. But I am not a government official." - Francis Wolcott

by Maelvampyre on Oct 20, 2010 9:00 PM CDT up reply actions  

Right

In the case of our personnel, a west-coast style offense may be better suited. Quick slants and shorter, faster routes may be the way to go.

Whatever he does, Martz needs to try and figure out how to get the ball out of Jays’ hands about 1-2 seconds faster, on average. It seems like we just don’t have the time to consistently sit back there and wait 3-5 seconds for something down-field to develop. It seems like we were able to adjust against Dallas, but what happened after that?

by JimmyMack on Oct 21, 2010 5:24 PM CDT up reply actions  

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