Numbers Tell the Tale; a Horrific Tale

CHICAGO - OCTOBER 17: Jay Cutler #6 of the Chicago Bears waits for a play, "Well, we're waiting." (In best Judge Smails voice.) (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)

The coming of Mike Martz was supposed to usher in a new era of offensive potency and excitement.  After six weeks, this offense needs to get on some ED drugs to bring some vitality.  Bumbling, stumbling, and bad.  That's the best way to describe these guys today.  Nobody on offense is playing to their potential; coaches included. 

The offensive line is a league-wide joke.  The WRs still seem to run the wrong routes.  The QB is unfortunately concussed, confused, and indecisive.  The coaches have no answers, and from the looks of things, no clue.  Just how bad is it?

To gauge just how bad the Bears' offense is right now, we need to look back to week 3 first.  At that time the Bears were 11th in total offense and 5th in passing.  Their offensive DVOA (from Football Outsiders) was +3.8%, good for 14th in the NFL.  The Bears 3rd down % was bad at 29% and their RedZone TD % was 27%.  Those numbers had the Bears ranked 28th and 28th has only gotten worse. 

Bears Value League Rank
Total YPG 285.2 29th
Run YPG 92.3 26th
Pass YPG 192.8 22nd
3rd Down % 18% 32nd
RedZone TD % 29% 31st
Offense DVOA -23.3% 30th
Run DVOA -5.1% 24th
Pass DVOA -27.3% 30th
Off Line Adj Yards 3.59 28th
Sacks Allowed 27 32nd
Sack Rate 12.4% 32nd


Epic fail in every category.  The Bears have just fallen off a cliff Junior Seau style (too soon?)

Jay Cutler's individual performance has also cratered.  After week 3, his stats looked like this:

He's completed 66% of his passes for 870 yards and 6 touchdowns vs just 2 interceptions.  His QB Rating is an impressive 109.7, good for 3rd in the NFL behind Peyton Manning and Michael Vick.  Jay's FO [thru week 3] DYAR ranking has him 9th in passing and 4th in rushing for QBs.

Cutler is currently 8 of 13 for 42 yards, 3 touchdowns and a QB Rating of 106.4 in the RedZone [thru week 3].

What about now:

Jay has completed 60.3% of his passes for 1,202 yards & 6 TDs vs. 3 interceptions.  He hasn't thrown a touchdown since week 3.  His QB Rating is still high at 93.2; good for 11th in the NFL.  With Football Outsiders, Jay has dropped to 25th passing overall with a DYAR of 71.   

In the RedZone, Jay is 9 of 17 for 48 yards, 3 touchdowns and a QB Rating of 98.3.  At first look, those numbers look OK.  But if you compare what he did in the first 3 weeks versus his last 2 games played, it doesn't look as rosy.  Since the Green Bay game, Jay is just 1 of 4 for 6 yards with zero TDs in the RedZone; that's bad.


Overall, the Bears offense is collapsing.  Whether it's the offensive line, Jay Cutler, Mike Martz, or a combination of all three is unclear.  What is known, is that improvements need to be made in all areas for this team to even consider making the playoffs.

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