Chicago Bears Advanced Statistics Debacle
by Mike Mueller on Oct 6, 2010 3:00 PM CDT
in Notes
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PrintThe stinker of a game on Sunday really took the wind out of our sails. They didn't just look bad, they were epic fail horrible on offense. I can not point to one thing that went right. The advanced stats and scouting folks agree: the Bears are a below average team. However, 0-4 Carolina is just what the doctor ordered.
Football Outsiders advanced DVOA rankings have the Bears plummeting all the way to 27th this weekootballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2010/week-4-dvoa-ratings" target="_blank">. That's a slip of 13 spots, far outpacing any other team. The Bears' offensive performance against the Giants was that bad. From week 3 to week 4, the Bears defense actually climbed one spot from 18th to 17th this week. The offense, however, went from a respectable 15th (+1.7%) down to an abysmal 29th (-22.8%). The train-wreck teams of San Francisco, Carolina, and Arizona are the only teams to rank higher on the scale of offensive ineptitude.
Predictably, the Bears offensive line ranks 27th in running and 32nd in the passing game. (LINK) The Bears offensive line allows a sack 11.9% of the time there's a passing play: nearly 1 in 8. I guess we need to run more, just to keep our QBs healthy.
Speaking of QBs, Jay Cutler now ranks 19th, keeping company with the likes of Garrard, Wallace, and Freeman. He needs to be better.
Matt Forte continues his dominance as the worst running RB in the NFL. As a rusher with more than 32 carries, Forte ranks 37 out of 37 running the ball. When a guy rushes for 2,000 yards he buys his offensive linemen watches, what should Matt Forte buy his offensive linemen? His only saving grace, is that he ranks 3rd in the NFL as a receiver out of the backfield.
The lone bright spot on offense is Johnny Knox. He ranks 13th in DYAR (which loosely measures total contribution above replacement), and measures 3rd in the NFL in DVOA (value over average, which is his effectiveness on a per play basis). If the Bears used Knox more, his DYAR would be higher. When he is used, he's highly effective.
The Bears offense has a long, long way to go. Thankfully, Carolina is up next.
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Forte shouldn't buy them anything
he should be saving his money, he keeps it up, he’ll be unemployed
"I'd rather have an ugly win than an ugly loss. Yeah, they had a lot of yards, but yards don't mean crap. Points do." -Brian Urlacher
by BearNecessities on Oct 6, 2010 3:18 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
He should give the FO enough money for them to get Logan Mankins.
Lifelong Arizona Cardinals/Chicago Bears fan [I have always lived in Arizona, dad is from Chicago].
I can't stand fair-weather/bandwagon fans, stick with your team(s), throughout the good and the bad. And don't switch to whichever team wins the Super Bowl each year.
They should get HIM watches by way of apology. The TEs, too. Though, what he would do with about a dozen expensive watches is beyond me.
"44 years of football history and nothing to show for it. I wish I wasn’t banned at the Norseman.." - tfrabotta
"Fellas, what are they, unblockable? Is that the '85 Bears over there?" - Tom Coughlin, Giants '06 training camp
~~~ Check my profile for links for SB20 and America's Game: '85 Bears ~~~
carolina is a dangerous team for the bears right now
it is possible they have reached their nadir and will see their confrontation with our beloved Bears as a way up, whereas we may have seen our zenith in the first three games and might be at the start of our plunge. this is a key game for both teams.
great and informative post mike. sad numbers, but quite truthful.
"I am a sinner who does not expect forgiveness. But I am not a government official." - Francis Wolcott
Agreed
They are a trap team for sure. They aren’t highly talented, but they’ve been known to show up to games they were supposed to lie down for. I think we win, but we shouldn’t just say this is a win because it’s the Panthers.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
very true Dane
I remain the optimist.
"I am a sinner who does not expect forgiveness. But I am not a government official." - Francis Wolcott
ME TOO!
Everyone has bad days… GO BEARS! :]
"A lot of fans were drawn to me because they knew that whatever the score was, I was going to run as hard as I could on every play. You don't have that now, you have guys waiting for next week or even next year." - Walter Payton
Editor/Writer for WindyCityGridiron.com
All 11 guys, all at the same time, had a collective "bad day".
I hope you’re right….
If you can't laugh at yourself you must not be very funny.
I remain a pessimistically hopeful Bears fan.
Please temper that enthusiam.
If you don't ask, you don't get. So get on with it already.
by Suffering from Chicago Sports on Oct 6, 2010 5:56 PM CDT up reply actions
i would say...
…it is enthusiasm that is of a wait-and-see sort. see how the carolina game goes.
"I am a sinner who does not expect forgiveness. But I am not a government official." - Francis Wolcott
This is true.
We face Carolina, Seattle, Washington, and Buffalo, though maybe not in that order. Easy schedule.
Thanks Bobby!
I still love the line about...
Matt Forte continues his dominance as the worst running RB in the NFL.
Couldn’t have said it better myself!
IT'S NOT TOO LATE TO TRADE TOMMIE!...
The bears should get healthy
against a team that does not have 2 of their top 3 WR’s, a rookie backup QB, and a decent defense. If they don’t or slip by unimpressively they may give some of these easier games away
by Andrew Sturtevant on Oct 6, 2010 4:23 PM CDT reply actions
Updates per Brad Biggs:
Martz speaks:
If something should happen where Jay was not able to play then Todd is clearly our backup.
Mike Martz says all the blame for wretched offensive performance is on him.
Lovie speak:
I asked Lovie if he had regrets #Bears cut Alex Brown & didn’t try 2 re-sign Wale “We don’t have any regrets.” Cutting 97 says differently
"How do you know somebody is great? When you see how they respond to adversity. Anybody can man a ship when the waters are calm." - Jerry Angelo
While I hope I will believe it when I see it.....
I guess we need to run more, just to keep our QBs healthy.
Martz laughs at this thought…..
It was very boring. Followed by a short period of terrifying….
- Jay Cutler on getting ready for Sunday's with the current offensive line
Funny, I posted over the offseason that Forte was the worst rushing back in the NFL
and I was attacked from all sides. I didn’t call Forte horrible, and noted that i thought he was fantastic as a receiver and very good as a blocker, but that he was horrid as a rusher, and that his first season was a case of quantity over quality. Where are all of those people who jumped all over me and said the season would prove me wrong now?
I still place plenty of blame on the o-line. Forte isn’t entirely at fault. But, once again there are worse runblocking lines, and yet Forte is again ranked at the bottom of the league as a rusher. I said then, and I’ll say it now. Throw some weight on Forte and make him a FB, where he would have already seen a pro bowl by now. He’d even make a great 3rd down back. But this team absolutely needs a different feature back.
in•san•i•ty \in-ˈsa-nə-tē\ noun
1 : The practice of repeating the same action while expecting different results.
by Timothy Hockemeyer on Oct 6, 2010 5:24 PM CDT reply actions
Crickets.....
Forte could be a good back in a 1-2 system. That requires a line that can run block, ours cannot. Hell they can’t pass block either.
Strange how the ST line has kept the rush off of Maynard – just an observation.
I, for one, don’t believe he’s the worst, he’s just in the worst possible situation for a back with his skills.
If you don't ask, you don't get. So get on with it already.
by Suffering from Chicago Sports on Oct 6, 2010 6:12 PM CDT up reply actions
I LOVE FORTE! :]
Lol.
"A lot of fans were drawn to me because they knew that whatever the score was, I was going to run as hard as I could on every play. You don't have that now, you have guys waiting for next week or even next year." - Walter Payton
Editor/Writer for WindyCityGridiron.com
no one on this site is clamoring to have Forte's babies...
…but I don’t put all the blame for his flaccid stats on him, his line sucks at run blocking (and pass blocking too)
"I am a sinner who does not expect forgiveness. But I am not a government official." - Francis Wolcott
I believe he has a chick having his baby already...NOT his ex-fiance if Im not mistaken. ....lol
"Yes, risk taking is inherently failure-prone. Otherwise, it would be called sure-thing-taking." - Jim McMahon
I'll still attack you from one side...
This is the worst line in the league, hands down, at the moment. He’s the third best receiving back, in an offense that really focuses on that aspect of his game. All the has to be is an average rusher if he’s going to be a fantastic receiving back, but there is zero chance of him being average behind the the worst line the league, and even less than zero when they run him up the middle of a terrible line when that is specifically his weakest trait.
Associate Writer - WindyCityGridiron.com - Artist formerly known as Sklz711
i can live with that logic about Forte
what about chester taylor?
is he as deficient as Forte in this regard?
he seems to be in the same ballpark with Forte so far.
has Bell gotten any snaps?
"I am a sinner who does not expect forgiveness. But I am not a government official." - Francis Wolcott
Taylor
Offers some of the same as Forte, with the key differences being…
Taylor is a slightly better blocker, Forte is a slightly better receiver.
Taylor is slightly better a breaking tackles, Forte is slightly better at making people miss.
Taylor is quite a bit better up the middle, Forte is quite a bit better at finishing when he breaks one.
To me, they are a great one two punch, but the run up the gut needs to be removed unless it’s some kind of delay or something that really gives the DL a chance to be out of position, or something. This line just is completely unable to get the push it requires.
Associate Writer - WindyCityGridiron.com - Artist formerly known as Sklz711
do you think there is a RB in the league that would run effcetively behind that line?
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Oct 7, 2010 8:12 AM CDT up reply actions
No, and I dont thing there is one that could run effectively either :]
"Yes, risk taking is inherently failure-prone. Otherwise, it would be called sure-thing-taking." - Jim McMahon
I can think of a number of backs worse then Forte
Julius Jones, Maroney, Slaton, Wells, McGahee. Forte is a two back type of guy, quick with good hands. The fact is Chicago hasn’t groomed is running backs well since I can’t even remember well. We’ve had plenty of good backs in Thomas, Jones, Benson, and now Forte, but they just don’t seem to do well as time passes in Chicago, despite finding success elsewhere. I’d love to see a new RB coach come in.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
As far as our backs...
Thomas got lazy, we let Jones go cuz McCaskey is cheap he was a great back and still is. Benson was a bum…really..I think he just grew up since he got to Bengals. Forte can be explosive but you have to have a line…we need a 3rd down power back…we cant get a yard to save our life, unless of course we need 10+….(which would be funny if it wasnt so sad).
"Yes, risk taking is inherently failure-prone. Otherwise, it would be called sure-thing-taking." - Jim McMahon
Thomas was a beast till the end
And Benson was solid, imagine if we had him and Forte.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
Huh...then why did we dump Thomas again? Cant recall...
"Yes, risk taking is inherently failure-prone. Otherwise, it would be called sure-thing-taking." - Jim McMahon
Couldn't catch....
supposedly.
If you can't laugh at yourself you must not be very funny.
I remain a pessimistically hopeful Bears fan.
he was a jerk to the fans at camp too...
"Yes, risk taking is inherently failure-prone. Otherwise, it would be called sure-thing-taking." - Jim McMahon
Ah I forgot
But who cares, Chicago has a tendency to dump backs too quickly.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
You just listed my fantasy football team....
If you can't laugh at yourself you must not be very funny.
I remain a pessimistically hopeful Bears fan.
Carolina is not gonna be a walk in the park.
This is another team waiting to spontanintsly combust all over an unsuspecting foe. Their running game is always a threat, solid defense, and Clausen doesn’t look terrible; which means he’ll look good on sunday.
You can't see California without Marlon Brando's eyes.
by ifuwannacrownem on Oct 6, 2010 5:56 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
Good Post... They say statistics don't tell the entire story
Unfortunately, in this instance, they paint a well defined picture of our offensive ineptitude.
Martz is beginning to recognize the err of his ways. Let’s see if he actually does some rectifying on Sunday.
So far as Collins is concerned, the make Geritol for just this reason. Gimme Hanie!!
If you don't ask, you don't get. So get on with it already.
by Suffering from Chicago Sports on Oct 6, 2010 6:07 PM CDT reply actions
Cutler status?
Sorry for being late to the party since Sunday night. But what’s Cutler’s status? News via the google tells me that he is returning to practice but still not cleared?
And i have NO faith, after the Giants game implosion, that we win this weekend. No faith. Our O-Line sucks ass and our D is still good but the Panthers always seem to catch us at our weakest point.
I'm not so mean. I wouldn't ever go out to hurt anybody deliberately - unless it was, you know, important, like a league game or something. - Dick Butkus
Offenseive Offense
Martz pulled the same thing at Detroit, not going to the run, that Martz offense went 0 for 16. He should demote Forte and make Taylor the featured back. Playing with the same horrid offensive line Taylor is averaging almost a year per carry more, that a first down on 3rd and 1. And Angelo, has got to go. He spent money this week for a defensive lineman when the Bears have such and inept offensive line? Other than Kreutz, Olsen and Clark, what Bears offensive lineman would start on a contending NFL team? Angelo should have been going after an experienced offensive lineman. Someone of the calibur of Rueben Brown. The Bears have NO lineman of that stature. Pace was too old and broken unfortunately. Hiring a new GM now would give the guy a chance to really assess the Bears needs. I remember how Jim FInks and Ditka built the 80’s teams. Is there a Jim FInks type GM that the Bears can hire to replace Angelo who can only relate to the defensive side of the ball?
Forte
The problem isn’t with Forte. Taylor will suffer the same fate if the play calling doesn’t change. The Bears seem to run to the strength of the defense at every opportunity, looks like they opened the Ron Turner play book. I had hoped those days were gone. Both Taylor and Forte have decent speed so they should be able to run outside once in a while just to change things up. But No. It’s run to the middle every time and with our Oline that is stupid. Some run blocking would surely help. Even some screens like the one Forte ran for an 89 yard touchdown. HELP
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