Chicago Bears Advanced Statistics Debacle

The stinker of a game on Sunday really took the wind out of our sails.  They didn't just look bad, they were epic fail horrible on offense.  I can not point to one thing that went right.  The advanced stats and scouting folks agree:  the Bears are a below average team.  However, 0-4 Carolina is just what the doctor ordered.

Football Outsiders advanced DVOA rankings have the Bears plummeting all the way to 27th this weekootballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2010/week-4-dvoa-ratings" target="_blank">.  That's a slip of 13 spots, far outpacing any other team.  The Bears' offensive performance against the Giants was that bad.  From week 3 to week 4, the Bears defense actually climbed one spot from 18th to 17th this week.  The offense, however, went from a respectable 15th (+1.7%) down to an abysmal 29th (-22.8%).  The train-wreck teams of San Francisco, Carolina, and Arizona are the only teams to rank higher on the scale of offensive ineptitude. 

Predictably, the Bears offensive line ranks 27th in running and 32nd in the passing game. (LINK)  The Bears offensive line allows a sack 11.9% of the time there's a passing play: nearly 1 in 8.  I guess we need to run more, just to keep our QBs healthy.

Speaking of QBs, Jay Cutler now ranks 19th, keeping company with the likes of Garrard, Wallace, and Freeman.  He needs to be better.

Matt Forte continues his dominance as the worst running RB in the NFL.  As a rusher with more than 32 carries, Forte ranks 37 out of 37 running the ball.  When a guy rushes for 2,000 yards he buys his offensive linemen watches, what should Matt Forte buy his offensive linemen?  His only saving grace, is that he ranks 3rd in the NFL as a receiver out of the backfield.  

The lone bright spot on offense is Johnny Knox.  He ranks 13th in DYAR (which loosely measures total contribution above replacement), and measures 3rd in the NFL in DVOA (value over average, which is his effectiveness on a per play basis).  If the Bears used Knox more, his DYAR would be higher.  When he is used, he's highly effective.   

The Bears offense has a long, long way to go.  Thankfully, Carolina is up next.

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