The Bears Den: November 19th Victory Friday Edition

I think if they’ve been scared at all, it because the last 2 games have come against top 10 pass defenses, so in my mind it’s all right to hold back your turnover prone/gunslinger QB against good pass D teams, which is what they’ve done.

And two, I think Cutler is a HUGE reason for the improvement on 3rd downs. Jenson went so far as to use the word “clutch” which I agree with. You can see him go through his progressions, he scrambles when absolutely nothing is there and there is room and as he even said himself on one occasion, “no reason to force it in there at that point in the game.” Cutler might, MIGHT be starting to “get it.”

even without the big sack numbers, the pressure he’s put on all season hasn’t allowed the opposing QB’s time to pick us apart as often.

Here you go (pops) (Video evidence at the bottom of the post.)

“They were on the road and it was cold outside”…..

But he had more wtf moments…

Hated last night’s announcers ugh. I shouldn’t notice announcers. But when you make stupid statements, make clearly wrong observations and just in general run your mouth just to talk about yourself, Ima gonna hate.

I had a room full of people screaming in amazement at that play. Joe Buck’s ho-hum delivery is just painful.

And yeah, he didn’t make any fans with the “That is just shameful!” call of Randy Moss’ fake moon of Packers fans.

But… whatever gets it done. The commitment to the run improves the offensive line play… just by situation. The D can’t pass blitz like crazy on us… as was happening earlier in the year.

he can’t run their routes for them. can he?

Have been in the same system for a while and with the same group of players for the most part.

-1 for begging

even if we end up winning the Super Bowl, I say you don’t give him extension until he proves he can put two good seasons back to back. We’ve gone down this road before by just making it to the SB and not even winning it, then we go 3 years of bad. He has to prove some consistency of success to be given another extension, in my opinion.

One of the analysts said after the game that Elway, I think it was (if not then it was another HOF-calibre QB), once said that his job was to make plays on 3rd down. Jay certainly did that last night.

I disagree that Jay played a poor game in any of the last three weeks. But I disagree as to the reason, as well. He played a Kyle Orton circa 2005 game. He managed the game.

Now, that isn’t an insult. It would be if he had to play that kind of game. But he didn’t. He played the gameplan and that is where the QB rating is fallible. The problem with the QBR system is that it doesn’t take into account opportunities. It is a great measurement of QBs when they are given opportunities to throw TD passes. But it doesn’t take several things into account.

Every pass attempt holds the possibility of INT. This week Jays lone INT was entirely his own fault. and that adversely affects the QBR. But last week one of his INTs was not his fault, and it also adversely affected his QBR, which is misleading. Every INT that was not the fault of the QB is a misleading factor, as is every thrown away pass. The throw aways are another entirely misleading factor because we would consider a thrown away pass to be a good decision, where the QBR system sees a drop in QBR because of thrown away balls.

I actually felt that Jay played very good games all three weeks, doing what needed to be done each week. Sometimes the QB needs to step up and carry the team. Sometimes the smartest thing is for the QB to play “Neckbeard” ball because the other phases of your game are dominating the way they were Thursday. But QBR will never accurately reflect a conservative gameplan.

The other problem I have with QBR is that if one QB has 3 plays break short screens for an average of 90 yard TDs and throws a pick in the endzone that is his fault, he will have a better QBR than a player who threw three beautiful TD passes in the redzone and a pick from a tipped ball or a slipped receiver at midfield. Why? Because of the yardage gained on the screens. Check this out.

The QBs for 2 teams have identical stats minus 4 plays for each QB that resulted in scores or turnovers. Without these 4 plays from each, they are both identical in stats and impact on the game.

15-22 for 156 yards with 1 INT (both due to being hit as they released the ball) and no TDs for an 69.5 QBR

Now here we’ll apply the previous 2 QBs. First the one with the 3 screens for TDs. But the three screens for 86, 90 and 94 yard TDs had more to do with great after the catch work by the receivers and blockers, as well as good playcalling. If those same screens were thrown, but the ball carrier was tackled after a 15 yard gain, the QBs QBR drops significantly, even though nothing he did changes. Meanwhile, that same QB then choked when he threw in a critical situation in the redzone throwing short into triple coverage with a wide open TE in the front right corner and a RB open in the flat at the 2 yard line near the left hash mark.

Now the other QB, he throws a great pass into tight coverage where only the receiver can get it on one redzone TD of 17 yards, a great fade to the corner on another for 6 yards and a third to his TE that is perfectly timed on a hook route in the front of the endzone for 11 yards, then throws a pick that was thrown to the right spot, but the receiver slips making his cut and a defender makes a Marty Booker style dive to get the INT with one hand.

Which one of these players played better? I’d say the second, where he passed the ball perfectly and just got unlucky on a beautiful defensive play for an INT, while the first player got lucky with some huge breaks and great support from his receivers, and made a horrible boneheaded move in the redzone on his only real true scoring opportunity. I’d call his 3 TDs the work of other players. He, of course made the passes, but he had nothing to do with turning a play that started around the LOS into a 90 or so yard TD.

But the end result in terms of QBR? 118.3 for the first QB and 96.6 for the second. So the guy who’s receivers added 270 YAC to his yardage totals gave him a 21.5 point boost in QBR. Does his 426 yards total accurate reflect his contribution? Was he reallt that much better than the second QB who totaled just 190 yards? This is where I have real problems with the QBR system. It’s still probably the best system available, but it is definitely not perfect.

In this case, it didn’t account for recevers adding 270 YAC in just 3 plays (Which the QB had no control over) and it didn’t account for scoring opportunities. The first QB threw an INT in his only redzone trip while the other threw 3 TDs in his three RZ attempts.

So, I may have surprised you a bit, but I do not agree that the QBR is entirely accurate. I see Jay as having played the game that needed to be played for three straight weeks. Until we come up with a system that has the ability to take into account things like QB throw aways, WR YAC and drops and scoring opportunities vs second effort by receivers then there will be no truly accurate system. That being said, I do believe QBR to be the most accurate means of determining QB effectiveness and that, for the most part it works fairly well, but is by no means the first way one should judge a QBs performance.

No statistic should be used as a sole method of judging a player. Stats are only a window. They help to define what you are seeing and can make for a useful too along with the most effective means of judgement…..watching the game.

he made some poor decisions he did throw the ball away…..Forte was in the area and that is why they did not get called for intentional grounding so no safty…..2nd he had no time as the rush was right in his face…..If he takes the sack then everyone is screaming OMFG CUTLER SUCKS CAUSE HE TOOK THE SAFETY!!!

And I have NO clue where you get the longer he has time to throw he makes mistake cause from what I have seen its when he has no time and is rushed he makes this stupid decisions because he has the belief to throw into any window or any where on the field with out setting his feet…..Guess maybe we are seeing different things…..