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The Bears and The Playoffs: 4 Games Left Edition

The Chicago Bears are 9-3. Four games left. Jay Cutler has his first winning season since forever, and the Bears win finally and officially ruled out any chance that the Vikings could accidentally win the NFC North.

2 at home. 2 on the road. Not only is the NFC North Division Championship in play, but so is a #1 seed, and the home field advantage and bye week that comes with it. There are some good teams on the outside looking in right now, and the Bears play one of those teams in week 17.

It's playoff-level football in December...what could be better? Current NFC standings and schedule analysis after the jump.

Star-divide

National Football Conference - 2010 Regular Season
  NFC Team Div W L T  Pct PF PA Net Pts TD Home Road Div Pct Conf Pct Non-Conf Streak Last 5
1. Atlanta Falcons NCS 10 2 0 .833 304 233 71 33 6-0 4-2 3-0 1.000 7-1 .875 3-1 6W 5-0
2. Chicago Bears NCN 9 3 0 .750 246 192 54 27 4-2 5-1 4-0 1.000 7-3 .700 2-0 5W 5-0
3. Philadelphia Eagles NCE 8 4 0 .667 344 281 63 38 4-2 4-2 2-1 .667 5-3 .625 3-1 1W 4-1
4. St. Louis Rams NCW 6 6 0 .500 232 237 -5 23 4-2 2-4 2-2 .500 4-5 .444 2-1 2W 3-2
5. New Orleans Saints NCS 9 3 0 .750 299 227 72 34 4-2 5-1 3-1 .750 7-2 .778 2-1 5W 5-0
6. New York Giants NCE 8 4 0 .667 308 247 61 37 5-2 3-2 2-2 .500 6-2 .750 2-2 2W 3-2
7. Green Bay Packers NCN 8 4 0 .667 303 182 121 36 5-1 3-3 3-1 .750 6-3 .667 2-1 1W 4-1
8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers NCS 7 5 0 .583 243 251 -8 29 3-3 4-2 2-3 .400 5-3 .625 2-2 2L 2-3
9. Seattle Seahawks NCW 6 6 0 .500 240 289 -49 25 4-2 2-4 3-1 .750 5-3 .625 1-3 1W 2-3
10. Minnesota Vikings NCN 5 7 0 .417 227 253 -26 27 4-2 1-5 1-3 .250 4-4 .500 1-3 2W 3-2
11. Washington Redskins NCE 5 7 0 .417 222 293 -71 23 2-4 3-3 2-2 .500 4-5 .444 1-2 2L 1-4

standings pulled from nfl.com-The Online Home of the National Football League

Atlanta Falcons-@CAR, @SEA, NO, CAR
Credit has to be given to the Falcons. They're absolutely dominant at home and find the ways to win the big games away (see: TB). They and their schedule are the biggest hindrances to the Bears ability to finagle their way into the #1 seed. They've got three division games over their last four, but two of those games are against the woeful Panthers, and one each against Seattle and New Orleans. Do not be surprised if the Falcons go 3-1, or possibly 4-0 over this last stretch. The late home game against New Orleans will be their toughest test, and New Orleans is going to be fighting for their postseason lives.

Chicago Bears-NE, @MIN, NYJ, @GB
Tough, Tough, Tough, Tough. New England and New York are going to settle up the NFC East pecking order this week. New England is particularly tough on teams the week after they lose, so keep that in mind. Minnesota may be a far different team than they were a few weeks ago, with Interim Head Coach Leslie Frazier, and the possibility that Capt. Wranglers may not be able to go. They put up big points on the Bills yesterday, and they're going to be seeking to play spoiler. The Jets are tough, but beatable, and I think you can still get in Sanchez's head. I would like nothing more than for the game against Green Bay to not mean anything, but it may likely be the decider to crown a NFC North champion. They are, however, in a situation that could possibly leave them looking back at New York, Washington, or Seattle and thinking "What If?"

Philadelphia Eagles-@DAL, @NYG, MIN, DAL
The Eagles have a tough road to keep their grip on the NFC North. The Cowboys aren't the team they were earlier this season, as a couple of recent wins, including the big one against the Colts last night, have shown. They're more balanced, and they're finding ways to make plays they just didn't make the first half of the season. Additionally, they have their game against the Giants, which could help even out the tiebreaker scenarios should the Giants win. They need to get the wins in Dallas to stay ahead of New York in the tie breaker scenarios. This one should be much more clear after week 15.

St. Louis Rams-@NO, KC, SF, @SEA
The Rams are fighting tooth and nail to keep themselves above the Seahawks right now, and a tough look stretch down the road may not help them. New Orleans and Kansas City are both legitimate teams, and San Francisco can always play someone hard. The Seahawks have a similar schedule, and may benefit from hosting the Rams in Week 17.

New Orleans Saints-STL, @BAL, @ATL, TB
The Saints hold their playoff destiny in their own hands. They'll likely look to be one of the higher five seed teams you've ever seen, but two big road games in Baltimore and Atlanta are going to be tough for them, and the game against Tampa Bay may be a spoiler game.

New York Giants-@MIN, PHI, @GB, @WAS
The Giants are in a dead race for the East, just like I mentioned above. They have what I would argue is a similar schedule to the Eagles down the line, though I'd give them the edge with playing Washington in Week 17--that team looks like it's punching timecards.

Green Bay Packers-@DET, @NE, NYG, CHI
Green Bay has shown they can be attacked, but they're still the best team on the outside looking in right now. They're looking at a not easy schedule down the stretch, but having two tough games at home is going to play into their advantage. If they get tripped up by New England or New York, the Bears may not have to worry about Week 17, provided they can get things done.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers-@WAS, DET, SEA, @NO
Tampa Bay is, I think, going to get the short end of the stick from playing in the NFC South this year. With two or three teams in the conference already at nine wins or higher, the Bucs may well need to win out to have much chance of making it. They have a schedule that could help them out with some of that, though, in that Washington, Detroit, and Seattle are all definitely winnable games. If nothing else, keep an eye on this team next year--they should be able to build on what they have now to be formidable. (If we get football.)

Seattle Seahawks-@SF, ATL, @TB, STL
Seattle needs to win the San Fran game, and at least one of the other two, going into the game against the Rams. If they aren't two and one going into that last game, I don't think they've got much chance.

Minnesota Vikings-NYG, CHI, @PHI, @DET
Minnesota is going to play spoiler to someone's hopes and dreams. With an epic collapse by many teams, they could squeak in as a wild card, I think. (The number of extremely unlike scenarios that would have to occur was more research than I wanted to do.) However, they could upset the balance of the NFC East or North races with their next three games, and if T-Jack plays, they may very well keep someone out of their seed, or out of the playoffs entirely.

Washington Redskins-TB, @DAL, @JAC, NYG
I only put them because I'd feel bad if I didn't., as they have the same record as the Vikings. This team is clearly done.

 

Am I off? Wrong about something? A stupid idiot who doesn't know what they're talking about? Who are you predicting is in the top 6? Sound off now, and we'll update next Monday.

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Writer at windycitygridiron.com {-/-} http://www.twitter.com/kdoggers

by Kev H on Dec 6, 2010 4:00 PM CST up reply actions  

It comes down to the division

If we beat both Min & GB, we’ll be at least 11-5 (if not better) with all the division tie-breakers.

I don’t think we get the top seed, because Atlanta has a game advantage PLUS 2 against Carolina.

The team I worry about catching up to us is the Giants. We have the tie breaker against the Eagles, but the Giants beat us – so we pretty much need them to beat the Packers, but no one else. If they lose to Philly & Min or GB, we should have the inside track to a bye

by torch on Dec 6, 2010 3:59 PM CST reply actions  

we also kinda need to beat the Jets

just in case, b/c GB beat them too.

we just need to win out really.

Superman wears an Urlacher Jersey under his costume

by BearNecessities on Dec 6, 2010 4:15 PM CST up reply actions  

For the division

we only need to beat GB and any of the other 3. For a bye, we probably need to beat Min, GB, and one of NE/NYJ (maybe both)

by torch on Dec 6, 2010 4:21 PM CST up reply actions  

Yhea we do.

Don’t conference wins matter more to the tiebreaker than division wins? Even if we sweep the north, there’s a chance that GB would beat us in tiebreakers with a better NFC record.

…I think. lol.

by Virto on Dec 6, 2010 4:28 PM CST up reply actions  

Thought it went Head-to-Head, then Division, (then Common Games) then Conference.

So as long as we beat Mini and GB, even if they go 3-0 before “The Lambeau Showdown,” we’d be 11-5 with a 6-0 Division record and 2-0 Head to Head, while GB would be 11-5, certainly not 6-0 in Division and 0-2 in Head to Head.

NFL.com Tiebreaking Procedures (Pops like Big Ben’s nose)

by Steven Schweickert on Dec 6, 2010 4:40 PM CST up reply actions  

Okay

I had it backwards then. Now I know, knowing is half the battle, so on, so forth. :)

by Virto on Dec 6, 2010 5:30 PM CST up reply actions  

oooohhhh.... G. I. Jooooooeeee

"A lot of fans were drawn to me because they knew that whatever the score was, I was going to run as hard as I could on every play. You don't have that now, you have guys waiting for next week or even next year." - Walter Payton

Editor/Writer for WindyCityGridiron.com

by Ashley Czuba on Dec 6, 2010 9:48 PM CST up reply actions  

Magic Numbers

vs. Packers – 3
vs. Giants – 4
vs. Eagles – 3

those are the things to keep focused on.

We automatically get ONE of the Giants-Packers and ONE of the Giants-Eagles reduced by one since they play each other.

This basically means, win TWO and we’re in for sure.

follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com

by DartmouthCubsFan on Dec 6, 2010 4:40 PM CST reply actions  

two of four?

Packers, Vikings, Jets, Pats. I can see it happening.

Five foot three seems to thrive on his misery...

by awfullyquiet on Dec 6, 2010 5:15 PM CST up reply actions  

Merril Hodge was on NFL live

he said he saw 3 wins for the Bears.

that was pretty cool

Nobody who ever gave his best regretted it. -George Halas

by Allie on Dec 6, 2010 5:45 PM CST up reply actions  

I thought he hates them

(Sing song)...Everybody Hates Rondo...

by T.Moore on Dec 6, 2010 5:47 PM CST up reply actions  

He doesn't want to look like a loser anymore.

Just my thoughts.

Five foot three seems to thrive on his misery...

by awfullyquiet on Dec 6, 2010 7:01 PM CST up reply actions  

nah

he’s liking the dedication to balance. and he loves when forte/taylor are on the field together. he got all giggly about dueling factorbacks.

wasn’t nfl live though, it was “nfl primetime”… which is fun. dilfer, hodge and wingo are fun.

Nobody who ever gave his best regretted it. -George Halas

by Allie on Dec 6, 2010 8:45 PM CST up reply actions  

I absolutely hate Dilfer.

Least deserved Ring EVER!!!!!!!! + he’s a douche…..

in•san•i•ty \in-ˈsa-nə-tē\ noun
1 : The practice of repeating the same action while expecting different results.

by Timothy Hockemeyer on Dec 7, 2010 8:32 AM CST up reply actions  

I adjusted his stats down in my Madden game (’07). No way should he have been an 81 overall.

"44 years of football history and nothing to show for it. I wish I wasn’t banned at the Norseman.." - tfrabotta
"Fellas, what are they, unblockable? Is that the '85 Bears over there?" - Tom Coughlin, Giants '06 training camp
~~~ Check my profile for links for SB20 and America's Game: '85 Bears ~~~

by Spongie on Dec 7, 2010 5:23 PM CST up reply actions  

Not sure he should even have been a 51 overall.

Unless they had a secret stat for being a douche, at which point his score would have been 99.

in•san•i•ty \in-ˈsa-nə-tē\ noun
1 : The practice of repeating the same action while expecting different results.

by Timothy Hockemeyer on Dec 9, 2010 11:08 AM CST up reply actions  

I'm just so happy for meaningful

December football. Been a long time!

Nobody who ever gave his best regretted it. -George Halas

by Allie on Dec 6, 2010 5:44 PM CST reply actions   1 recs

Getting NY and NE in Chicago is big

I think they can beat them both… Minnesota and GB on the road will be real tough

If you go in the bathroom, turn off the lights, and say "Da Coach" 5 times while facing the mirror... Ditka will appear and slap the wussy right out of you.

by Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. on Dec 6, 2010 6:12 PM CST reply actions  

Minnesota is scary...

they have a chance to repay Chicago for essentially taking home field advantage away from them last year. The circumstances are the same (except they have flip flopped in the standings vs last year)-Monday night game, in December, and the underdog is at home…man I wish Chilly was still runnin’ the show in Minnesota.

by HasClothesLikeaDickhead on Dec 6, 2010 6:36 PM CST up reply actions  

me too

to me the game against the vikings is the toughest one left of the remaining 4.

by reefermadness3 on Dec 6, 2010 9:53 PM CST up reply actions  

All four games will be tough..

..but I think we have a good chance to win all four..
Pats – Bad D#. if the browns beat them, we can do it too.
Vikes – Without the Old man, we have better chances. And we beat them last year when they were better than now.
Jets – If Packers D# could Shutdown the Jets, we can beat them too.
Packs – This will be a great game, and everything can happen, but they are no better than Eagles.

by Claudio Oliveira on Dec 6, 2010 6:28 PM CST reply actions  

On the Pack and the Vikings....

I agree with your take on the NE and NY games, but we’ve won all of 2 games in the Metrodome in the last decade (’01 and ’06). I think this will be the toughest game of the 4. Playing against a stuanch division foe with a new coach that they actually like in their domed home where we have had a lot of problems.

And while the Eagles hype says one thing, the Pack are DEFINITELY better than the Eagles, IMO, especially defensively. They are the number one scoring defense, and have the largest scoring differential in the league (almost double that of the Eagles and more than double that of the Bears). I think our best friend in Lambeau will actually be the weather. I know, I know, GB is used to it, too. But they are not used to playing in that weather….without a running game. They do not have one, period, and if the weather is inclement, that should help us a lot.

All of these games are winnable, and in more than just a “any given Sunday” sense. Our defense makes every game winnable, and Cutler and the offense have been doing what is needed to capitalize on their great D and Special Teams.

in•san•i•ty \in-ˈsa-nə-tē\ noun
1 : The practice of repeating the same action while expecting different results.

by Timothy Hockemeyer on Dec 7, 2010 8:48 AM CST up reply actions  

I was playing around with that playoff thingy on ESPN.

And, playing the role of Debbie Downer, I assumed the Bears would go 1-3 (because we have to win one to get into the playoffs…beating Minny) and the Pack would go 3-1 (losing to the Pats in NE). There are a number of ways we get in, but the chances are slim. For instance, Tampa Bay would have to lose 2 (Redskins, Lions, Seahawks & Saints remaining).

Interestingly, if we win two with a loss to the Pack at the end, we need the Pack to beat NY for a wild card spot.

Anyway, four weeks of play is a long way out for a guy like me to make predictions…especially when my predictions aren’t buying me million dollar homes.

What really interests me is next week with the Pack in Det. We heard all of the “trap game for Chicago” last week, but we pulled it out…thankfully. Here’s what gets me thinking: That coaching staff of the Lions prep’ed a 3rd stringer against us really well through the first half. Luckily we made adjustments at the half and had a running game.

I’m wondering if next week isn’t a trap game for the Pack. That Detroit team is foaming at the mouth for another win…especially against a division rival.

Jake is right, we did have a band powerful enough to turn goat piss into gasoline.

by Chauncey Baker on Dec 6, 2010 6:45 PM CST reply actions  

I suspect the Bears will go 2-2...

with wins against MN and GB. That puts them at 11-5 and likely the #2 seed. ATL probably gets the #1. The only threat is GB at the end of the season but the Bears will make their own luck in that game. It almost doesn’t matter if they lose against the Pats and Jest mostly because the are not conference opponents. IMO, the Pats and Jest games will be a good barometer of whether or not the Bears can be more than a one and done playoff team. The funny thing is the Bears have a better road record, so home field advantage may not be the end all get all for the Bears.

I'd prefer not to have Lovie return...Unless we win the SB baby!!!!

"There's a fine line between stupid, and clever!"

"I am serious... and don't call me Shirley." Leslie Nielson 1926-2010

by LostInSTL on Dec 6, 2010 7:24 PM CST reply actions  

They will beat the Jets

They match up well vs.them, offensively and defensively.

If you go in the bathroom, turn off the lights, and say "Da Coach" 5 times while facing the mirror... Ditka will appear and slap the wussy right out of you.

by Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. on Dec 7, 2010 12:04 AM CST up reply actions  

I agree...

and I think they have a good shot at the Pats, as well. I like the way they match up against the Pats defense. I actually think the Patriots game might be the highest scoring game for our offense and the most poitns allowed by our defense all in the same game.

It’s actually the MIN game that I think we have the worst shot at. We don’t do well their and they want to win for their new coach. You can see the mentality change with Chilly gone.

Pack are the next team I fear the most. I don’t like the way our offense matches up with our defense, which is every bit as disgusting and dominant as ours. But I like our odds in a low scoring game given the time of the year and the lack of a running game from them. I actually think that because of their rushing problems, their Home Field Advantage might work against them against us and against the Pats.

Some will ridicule this, but I think if we go 3-1, that one loss will be to MIN.

in•san•i•ty \in-ˈsa-nə-tē\ noun
1 : The practice of repeating the same action while expecting different results.

by Timothy Hockemeyer on Dec 7, 2010 8:55 AM CST up reply actions  

I think the Pats short passing game is real good.

If the Bears can’t get consistent and quick pressure on Brady he’ll pick them apart.

If you go in the bathroom, turn off the lights, and say "Da Coach" 5 times while facing the mirror... Ditka will appear and slap the wussy right out of you.

by Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. on Dec 7, 2010 12:38 PM CST up reply actions  

I agree....

Like i said. I love the way our offense matches up against their defense, and I hate the way our defense matches up with their offense. I see a high scoring affair all the way around, unless one of the teams jumps out to a big lead early, at which point I see a complete blowout, because neither of these teams is any good when forced into a one dimensional game-plan (See Cleveland for NE and for Chicago every game that Martz deliberately called that way)

in•san•i•ty \in-ˈsa-nə-tē\ noun
1 : The practice of repeating the same action while expecting different results.

by Timothy Hockemeyer on Dec 9, 2010 11:13 AM CST up reply actions  

Going with the one week at a time approach.

If they play like they did against the lions, the Pats will destroy us..but if they can get..for lack of a better way to put it..Brady on his back under Peppers a few times and beat that D..we could verily win.

by Pretender85 on Dec 6, 2010 10:05 PM CST reply actions  

Thats the best way to look at it

week by week. In today’s NFL you can’t predict anything longer than that and with the way lady luck has got the Bears on her ’hiny, we could win it all this season!

by Gaak on Dec 7, 2010 12:26 AM CST up reply actions  

If.....

but then, Peppers could tear Brady’s head clean off and tie his flowing locks around his belt while he winks at Gizelle and melts her heart. “IF” that happens, we win by 30.

in•san•i•ty \in-ˈsa-nə-tē\ noun
1 : The practice of repeating the same action while expecting different results.

by Timothy Hockemeyer on Dec 7, 2010 8:58 AM CST up reply actions  

Or Gisele, if you prefer ;)

in•san•i•ty \in-ˈsa-nə-tē\ noun
1 : The practice of repeating the same action while expecting different results.

by Timothy Hockemeyer on Dec 7, 2010 8:59 AM CST up reply actions  

Maybe....

You can never tell what Justin Beeber wanna-bes will do.

in•san•i•ty \in-ˈsa-nə-tē\ noun
1 : The practice of repeating the same action while expecting different results.

by Timothy Hockemeyer on Dec 7, 2010 9:09 AM CST up reply actions  

I just realized that....

This would be a great OSS idea! Calling Smudgers!

Julius Peppers with head’s hanging off of his belt, i.e. Stafford’s, Stanton’s, E Manning’s, Vick’s, Thigpen’s, Favre’s, Sanchez’s, Brady’s and Rodgers’. Those he’s collected and those he will collect.

in•san•i•ty \in-ˈsa-nə-tē\ noun
1 : The practice of repeating the same action while expecting different results.

by Timothy Hockemeyer on Dec 7, 2010 10:51 AM CST up reply actions  

Did you guys see the way NE dismantled the Jets?

We play them both. I sooo confused…..

If you can't laugh at yourself you must not be very funny.
I remain a pessimistically hopeful Bears fan.

by Just Dave on Dec 7, 2010 10:45 AM CST reply actions  

Both are up and down....

And the Jets have a couple of starters on IR and a long list of players either out for injury or battling injury. Pats are pretty healthy, though.

Pats D is not great and the Jets offense is over-rated, I think we stand a good chance against both.

in•san•i•ty \in-ˈsa-nə-tē\ noun
1 : The practice of repeating the same action while expecting different results.

by Timothy Hockemeyer on Dec 7, 2010 10:55 AM CST up reply actions  

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