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Perceiving Hester: Devin by the numbers.

So after a disappointing season in which the Bears lost 9 games and Cutler didn't meet expectations in Chicago, regardless of fault (see: Ron Turner), a lot of Bears fans seem to want to dismiss Devin Hester as a receiver in Chicago.  To me, this seems a bit rash, and a lot confusing.

The Bears, agree with the initial decision or not, decided to try and get the ball into Devin Hester's hands more by turning the "ridiculous" kick returner into a wide receiver.  Many thought this was a great idea at the time.  After all, Devin was the most electrifying player in the league.  He started out slow and caught 20 balls in 2007, and maintained his return excellence.  But as he became a bigger part of the offense in '08, his return ability seemed to diminish.  Decreased time with the special teams unit in practice, as well as a league that was well aware of his style and threat, and an increased focus on his WR duties lead to a huge drop off in his return production.  The trend continued into 2009, and fans really raised their voices to question the decision.

But missed in all of this is Devin's development as a receiver.  Prior to his injury, Devin was on track to be the first 1000 yd receiver in Chicago since Marty Booker in 2002.  But knowing that, fans seem to point to his skill set and diminish his achievements by pointing to other players on the team.  I've heard how Devin can't get open, how he drops balls, and how he can't run routes.  So I decided to do a comparative analysis with the rest of the teams receivers, and added in a few of the leagues better receivers as a comparison.  I know some of you will say that stats don't tell the whole story, but I would respond with the idea that stats tell a truer story more consistently than anecdotal reviews.  So here it is.

Star-divide

Base Stats

  • Devin Hester: 13 Games - 91 Targets - 57 Recs - 2 Drops - 757 Yards - 3 TDs - 268 YAC

  • Earl Bennett: 16 Games - 88 Targets - 54 Recs - 5 Drops - 717 Yards - 2 TDs - 323 YAC
  • Johnny Knox: 15 Games - 80 Targets - 45 Recs - 3 Drops - 527 Yards - 5 TDs - 155 YAC
  • D Aromashodu: 10 Games - 43 Targets - 24 Recs - 2 Drops - 298 Yards - 4 TDs - 70 YAC
  • Rashied Davis: 16 Games - 8 Targets - 5 Recs - 1 Drop - 35 Yards - 0 TDs - 6 YAC
  • DeSean Jackson: 15 Games - 118 Targets - 63 Recs - 5 Drops - 1167 Yards - 9 TD - 273 YAC
  • Marques Colston: 16 Games - 106 Targets - 70 Recs - 8 Drops - 1074 Yards - 9 TDs - 372 YAC
  • Blaylon Edwards: 16 Games - 94 Targets - 45 Recs - 4 Drops - 680 Yards - 4 TDs - 188 YAC
  • Miles Austin: 16 Games - 124 Targets - 81 Recs - 5 Drops - 1320 Yards - 11 TDs - 555 YAC
  • Sidney Rice: 16 Games - 121 Targets - 83 Recs - 4 Drops - 1312 Yards - 8 TDs - 333 YAC
  • Pierre Garcon: 15 Games - 92 Targets - 47 Recs - 5 Drops - 765 Yards - 4 TDs - 295 YAC
  • M Sims-Walker: 15 Games - 111 Targets - 63 Recs - 1 Drop - 869 Yards - 7 TDs - 256 YAC

I tried not to cherry pick receivers and just came up with a list of 7 that were young and talented to have a good bar to measure Hester by.  Now, base stats tell a story, but rarely an in-depth story.  So I'll Break these down into some more interesting sub-stats and rank the players accordingly. I'll exclude Davis because his sample set is to small.

Drop %: Sims-Walker (0.9%), Hester (2.1%), Rice (3.3%), Knox (3.8%), Austin (4.0%), Jackson (4.2%), Edwards (4.3%), Aromashodu (4.7%), Garcon (5.4%), Bennett (5.6%), Colston (7.5%).

% of Targets caught: Rice (68.6%), Colston (66.0%), Austin (65.3%), Hester (62.6%), Bennett (61.4%), Sims-Walker (56.8%), Knox (56.3%), Aromashodu (55.8%), Jackson (53.4%), Garcon (51.1%), Edwards (47.9%)

YAC Average: Austin (6.9), Garcon (6.3), Bennett (6.0), Colston (5.3), Hester (4.7), Jackson (4.3), Edwards (4.1), Rice and Sims-Walker (4.0), Knox (3.4), Aromashodu (2.9)

Yards/Game: Austin (82.5), Rice (82.0), Jackson (77.8), Colston (67.1), Hester (58.2), Sims-Walker (57.9), Garcon (52.5), Bennett (44.7), Edwards (42.5), Knox (35.1), Aromashodu (29.8)

Receptions/Game: Rice (5.2), Austin (5.0), Hester and Colston (4.4), Jackson and Sims-Walker (4.2), Bennett (3.4), Garcon (3.1), Knox (3.0), Edwards (2.8), Aromashodu (2.4)

1st Down %: Colston (50.9%), Rice (48.8%), Austin (47.6%), Edwards (39.4%), Sims-Walker (38.7%), Hester (37.4%), Aromashodu (37.2%), Bennett (36.4%), Garcon (35.9%), Jackson (34.7%), Knox (27.5%)

Additionally, Hester leads all Bears in catches over 25 yards with 7, placing him 19th in the NFC.  I could only find top 20 stats for that, so I cannot provide the those stats for half on this list.

Some interesting things this list shows, relating to peoples complaints about Hester are that:

  1. Hester has much better hands than he is given credit for.  His drop percentage is the second best on this list.
  2. Hester is getting open.  His targets were a team best. and he caught a higher percentage of htose targets than most of the receivers on this list.  From Chicago, only Matt Forte caught a higher percentage of his targets, and Forte was 1st in the NFC and 3rd in the league in that stat.
  3. Hester appeared no further down than half way down on any of the sub-stats and only saw one sub-stat that any Bear receiver surpassed him: YAC average (Bennett)
  4. Hester's production numbers rival most on this list.  His numbers most closely resemble Colston, if adjusted for 16 games, with the exception of drops and TDs

My point in all of this is that the Bears just spent 3 years to turn a electrifying KR into a WR.  After the process finally appears to be bearing fruit, now some want to see Hester returned to KR duties.  I fail to see the logic.  As shown above in base and sub-stat terms, Hester is producing on par with most of these WRs, none of whom I suspect would be turned down by the fan base, if acquired.  And he has outproduced all other Bear receivers in almost all categories, even when broken down to per-game and per-catch divisions. 

I'm not saying, by any means, that Hester is yet an elite receiver.  But he is a viable weapon as a wide-out and switching his positions again can only hurt his production even more.  Hester can be a 1000 yards receiver, and the Bears have been without one of those for 7 straight seasons.  Throwing away that potential for the hope that Hester returns to form as an elite kick returner would be as big a waste as it was to throw away the leagues best returner for a mediocre WR.  Maybe even bigger.

I've had my say.  What do you think?

Edit: Hat tip to DaHamsta for catching the mistake with DeSean Jackson's TD numbers.  Much Appreciated!

Poll
Where should the Bears place Hester?
Continue his career as a wide receiver
74 votes
Move him back to a full time kick returner
32 votes
Other (explain below)
28 votes

134 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 95 comments  |  7 recs  | 

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Comments

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well done

good post man. I agree with you. his progression is great. I cant wait to see him and Cutler connecting next season. Tho you will get flamed for this by some self proclaimed smart guys, stats dont lie. The guy is fine. Players get worse when you keep moving them around. Let him stay at WR. I have no problem with him being a return man as long as he doenst lose snaps at WR.

"I wouldn't ever set out to hurt anyone deliberately unless it was important -- like a league game." - Dick Butkus

xbox live gamertag - rakman86

by rakman86 on Feb 9, 2010 2:20 PM CST reply actions  

Gmph !

Because obviously being a full time receiver won’t hurt his return game ….. duh.

by Irish Bears Fan on Feb 11, 2010 9:47 PM CST up reply actions  

imagine that

u found something else to complain about

"I wouldn't ever set out to hurt anyone deliberately unless it was important -- like a league game." - Dick Butkus

xbox live gamertag - rakman86

by rakman86 on Feb 12, 2010 6:43 AM CST up reply actions  

I feel your pain.

"How sad, another victim of the Night Nurses from Jersey."

by ANYTIME09 on Feb 13, 2010 2:49 PM CST up reply actions  

I like Hester in the slot and KR, but also with some WR plays

His big strength is open-field running, and the one area that he’s behind nearly all of the others is TD’s. A good gameplan would be to maximize his KR/PR touches, run him out of the slot for 20 plays/game, and WR for about 10 plays – with all designed to give him favorable open-field matchups with the ball.

Thanks for doing this research. My thought is that our key problem this year was not our receivers, but the interceptions and an ineffective defense.

by DisCUBbobulated on Feb 9, 2010 2:22 PM CST reply actions  

I think that....

The TD angle might be overplayed a bit. There are only 4 receivers on the list with significantly more TDs than Hester, and one of the most exciting (DeSean Jackson) has only 1 TD. But it’s a matter of subjective opinion, and a good point.

And I have no problem with your assessment, but……what happens if he doesn’t return to form on KRs? Classically, the great KRs have only a few good years, followed by a lot of mediocre to bad ones. Did we then ditch remove Hester as a threat in 2/3 of the offense plays just to get a mediocre returner?

I’m interested in the response.

Some days it's not worth chewing through the restraints - T-Train.

Two things are infinite: The universe and human stupidity. And I am not sure about the universe. - Albert Einstein.

by Timothy Hockemeyer on Feb 9, 2010 2:28 PM CST up reply actions  

hmmm... I see what you're saying re: potential dropoff in KR potential..

I think if Hester has lost that edge on KR’s, it will be evident after a few games, but we should give him a chance on the field to answer that question. He can switch over after a few games if it looks like his return game has left him. The key point is to get the highest margin of return at each of Hester’s potential positions (WR, Slot, KR/PR). Isn’t it interesting that he was drafted as a DB? I have to give him credit for picking up a new position (and a difficult one) on the fly like this.

by DisCUBbobulated on Feb 9, 2010 3:02 PM CST up reply actions  

Right......

Have said the same thing about the switch. Moving from DB to WR at the NFL level has me seriously questioning those who like to post about how Hester isn’t smart enough to learn Martz’s system.

Some days it's not worth chewing through the restraints - T-Train.

Two things are infinite: The universe and human stupidity. And I am not sure about the universe. - Albert Einstein.

by Timothy Hockemeyer on Feb 9, 2010 3:06 PM CST up reply actions  

Thanks DaHamsta

I don’t know how that one got by me, but good catch. I’ll edit the post accordingly.

Much appreciated.

Some days it's not worth chewing through the restraints - T-Train.

Two things are infinite: The universe and human stupidity. And I am not sure about the universe. - Albert Einstein.

by Timothy Hockemeyer on Feb 9, 2010 3:50 PM CST up reply actions  

That's what everyone is forgetting

when clamoring for his return to just returns. It’s not a guarantee he’ll be able to reclaim his former glory; actually, quite the contrary, because NFL history tells us fans otherwise.

"The country is full of good coaches. What it takes to win is a bunch of interested players." -Don Coryell, ex-San Diego Chargers Coach

by propheteer on Feb 10, 2010 10:26 AM CST up reply actions  

good ideas

He needs to get the ball in space and running out of the slot will help that happen.

As for the interceptions, many were caused by poor play of the WR.

I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren

by lookingdeadred on Feb 9, 2010 6:42 PM CST up reply actions  

like it or not...

…the horse is out of the barn, why bother locking the door now?
And I think that DisCUBbobulated made a good point above when he outlined better ways to use Hester’s skill set.

I voted other because I think he can be used to better advantage than Turner did so I didn’t want the same career to continue, I wanted it to maximize. Maybe Martz can help this process out.

"I am not an animal!" - Merrick

by Maelvampyre on Feb 9, 2010 2:38 PM CST reply actions  

Good post! Rec'd!

Hester used to be a great rturn man. But there no way to know if he will be one again. Keep him at receiver.

by Fuelfire on Feb 9, 2010 2:54 PM CST reply actions  

agree 1000000 percent with
After the process finally appears to be bearing fruit, now some want to see Hester returned to KR duties. I fail to see the logic


nice stat breakdown to back up your correct logic too btw.

when 23 said something about wanting to return full time to kr/pr i just dismissed it as whining over the lack of attention like he got during 06-07. manning and knox are both very good kr and i even like bennett a little bit as a pr. i am excited to see what hester can do under martz’s system this coming season.

by reefermadness3 on Feb 9, 2010 2:54 PM CST reply actions  

ohhh wow

i should wear a nerf helmet when attempting to use the internet i think lol

by reefermadness3 on Feb 9, 2010 2:55 PM CST up reply actions  

Lol! I feel your pain!

I have issues with reply buttons, and a nerf helmet would be useful during those times :D

Some days it's not worth chewing through the restraints - T-Train.

Two things are infinite: The universe and human stupidity. And I am not sure about the universe. - Albert Einstein.

by Timothy Hockemeyer on Feb 9, 2010 3:03 PM CST up reply actions  

Train yourself to hit preview

you’ll kick that nasty habit in no time.

-------
"Newbie, if the next two words out of your mouth aren't 'See ya' then the third word will be 'Oh my god. My crotch. You've punched me in my crotch." - Dr. Percival Ulysses Cox

by David Taylor on Feb 9, 2010 3:17 PM CST up reply actions  

Thanks smudgers.

I’ll give that a shot. I seem to hae a real problem with it when I’m replying to the last post on the thread :)

Some days it's not worth chewing through the restraints - T-Train.

Two things are infinite: The universe and human stupidity. And I am not sure about the universe. - Albert Einstein.

by Timothy Hockemeyer on Feb 9, 2010 3:30 PM CST up reply actions  

oh yeah that thing

i may have to try it out. but this orange foam is so fashionable

by reefermadness3 on Feb 9, 2010 11:35 PM CST up reply actions  

Great post, by the way.

-------
"Newbie, if the next two words out of your mouth aren't 'See ya' then the third word will be 'Oh my god. My crotch. You've punched me in my crotch." - Dr. Percival Ulysses Cox

by David Taylor on Feb 9, 2010 3:17 PM CST up reply actions  

um, I think he was talking to me?

lol. Not sure how you could have mistaken that, bro.

Some days it's not worth chewing through the restraints - T-Train.

Two things are infinite: The universe and human stupidity. And I am not sure about the universe. - Albert Einstein.

by Timothy Hockemeyer on Feb 9, 2010 3:28 PM CST up reply actions  

sorry.

i replied to the wrong one.

by Fuelfire on Feb 9, 2010 3:32 PM CST up reply actions  

NP, bro.

just was confusing.

Some days it's not worth chewing through the restraints - T-Train.

Two things are infinite: The universe and human stupidity. And I am not sure about the universe. - Albert Einstein.

by Timothy Hockemeyer on Feb 9, 2010 4:17 PM CST up reply actions  

????

What was that? How have I wronged you? Dude, I was jovial. I laughed about it and said no problem. Am I missing something here, bro?

Some days it's not worth chewing through the restraints - T-Train.

Two things are infinite: The universe and human stupidity. And I am not sure about the universe. - Albert Einstein.

by Timothy Hockemeyer on Feb 9, 2010 5:46 PM CST up reply actions  

I went with other

I think he should be used out of the slot, and I think he should run a few end arounds, maye some wildcat type stuff, as well as returning kicks.

by Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. on Feb 9, 2010 3:15 PM CST reply actions  

Keep him as a receiver.

But have him on a lower spot on the depth chart, like being the #3 guy. And that way he will have more time to focus on kickoff returns.

Lifelong Arizona Cardinals/Chicago Bears fan.

I can't stand band-wagoner fans, stick with your team, throughout the good and the bad.

by JoeCB1991 on Feb 9, 2010 3:17 PM CST reply actions  

who said he can't be an OK receiver?

he’ll just never be an elite one. nothing wrong with that. he’s a converted third round DB.

by Hatchetm on Feb 9, 2010 3:19 PM CST reply actions  

First, great post.

Second, I agree with Hester’s development. I don’t know that he’ll ever be an elite guy but can be a very capable NFL WR, which isn’t all bad. There was a post the other day about him returning to Full Time returner and I said there that people are assuming that he’ll pick up where he left off before he made the switch, which, from what we’ve seen the last two seasons, doesn’t look to be the case.

I think you keep him as a WR, but let him compete with the other guys to determine who belongs where and also throw him into the mix at returning with Knox and Manning (assuming Manning is still on the team). I don’t like Hester in the slot because I have never felt he breaks tackles nor makes people miss in close quarters. I think you keep him on the outside and use his speed to spread the field.

by BearFan611 on Feb 9, 2010 8:08 PM CST reply actions  

T-train as always you provide great information

I agree completely Hester has done IMO a great job. 4 years ago he was a returner/ corner and this year he was nearly a thousand yard receiver? Many also forget that during our horrendous losing streak of losing 8 of 10 games Hester was 2nd in the league in receptions behind only larry fitzgerald!
My question is what is what do people consider a number one receiver? 1000 + yard season? 70 or more catches? sure hands? Well Hester displayed many of those skills and had he been healthy was on pace for a solid season.
What would i do with him? unless we get a Bonafide #1(Marshall, Boldin) Hester is still a starter.
What about the return game? What about it? Knox Bennett and Manning are VERY dangerous and deserve some much needed respect. Each have taken one back to the house and i like the duo of knox and manning on kickoff because you will always have a speedster with fresh legs returning the ball.

You sure Edwards only had 4 drops? i think you left off a zero.

by Bear Lovin 21 on Feb 9, 2010 9:18 PM CST reply actions  

#1 receiver?

I’d say around 1200 yards, 80 catches 15 yards/catch, 10 td, pro bowl consideration.

there are about 10-12 guys who fit in this category. a talent like culter deserves somebody like that to work with.

by Hatchetm on Feb 10, 2010 8:53 AM CST up reply actions  

I agree, but It's not just the stats; it's also the ability to make every play for a QB

Jay said Hester isn’t a go up and get it kind of WR, he’s a throw it out there and let him run under it kind of guy. A real #1 has to be able to make all the catches. The endzone fade? We can’t throw that to Hester. The back shoulder jump ball? Jay tried it, & Hester couldn’t do it and it caused quite a stir in the preseason. Is DA that guy? I’m not convinced yet. But I see more potential of DA being that guy, than Hester ever being that guy.

by Mike Mueller on Feb 10, 2010 10:27 AM CST up reply actions  

If only there were a good medium.

I’d love to see him do both effectively, maybe playing him in the slot could do that, maybe not. I think that his TDs as a returner (6 and 7) which would place him 6th and 7th on this list, are as good as a receiver and that that is something overlooked.

by Sam Householder on Feb 9, 2010 10:07 PM CST reply actions  

I made a comment a while back regarding someone saying Hester was not the Bear's #1 receiver.

I replied with what else does he have to do to prove it. The numbers are there. Not to mention his hands, he made some clutch grabs. On top of that, it was a few games this year when i saw Hester get much separation on a play only to get overthrown by Cutler..one that was grossly overthrown and could would of went for a touchdown (the eagles game i believe)even to the point Chris Collinsworth said Cutler screwed the pooch on that play(paraphrasing of course).

Well, it looks like all of us knowledgeable Chicago fans will finally get their wish and Hester is not looking like he will be the #1 receiver next year so guess we will just have to wait and see who steps up, if anyone.

I don’t make too many gurantees but i am about to make one. Hester will flourish on offense next season in whatever role he is in. Special Teams? I truly hope so but jury is still out on that.

by Chitownproduct on Feb 10, 2010 7:46 AM CST reply actions  

I agree that Hester was the Bears best receiver

but that does not make him a true #1. Borrowing from Jon Stewart, being the best receiver on the Bears last season is akin to being the skinniest kid at fat camp.

That said, I agree with you that moving Hester to the slot in Martz’s offense will make Hester a much more productive receiver.

I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren

by lookingdeadred on Feb 10, 2010 10:55 AM CST up reply actions  

I think that.....

you’re “skinniest kid at fat camp” comment does an injustice to the Bears young receivers. They were supposed to be the weak spot on the offense coming into ’09, and anded up roundly being heralded as the bright spot.

But I agree that Hester isn’t yet, and may never be, a #1 receiver.

But then, I also think nobody will be a true #1 until the Bears figure out that the offense starts at the line. I am lifted a bit by some of Martz’s comments on that, though, as well as the hiring of Tice. Hopefully there is some follow through.

Some days it's not worth chewing through the restraints - T-Train.

Two things are infinite: The universe and human stupidity. And I am not sure about the universe. - Albert Einstein.

by Timothy Hockemeyer on Feb 10, 2010 11:02 AM CST up reply actions  

That the WRs played better than you thought they would

does not mean they were a good enough unit … they weren’t. Might they grow into one? We’ll see, but in the meantime I hope they get a true #1 to bolster the receiving corps for now.

As for the OL, of course, it all starts there, but again, because the OL is the biggest area of offensive need, does not mean the WR is not an area of need, too.

I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren

by lookingdeadred on Feb 10, 2010 5:40 PM CST up reply actions  

i think they were a good unit

they were lightyears better than the Browns, Bucs, Seahawks, Rams, blah blah blah
I htink they can only get better

Do or do not there is not try-Master Yoda

by suckmyditka on Feb 11, 2010 7:43 AM CST up reply actions  

They were not a good unit

but might they get better? Yes, but they were not a good unit. While WR is not the highest priority, if a chance to get a proven WR pops up they would be fools not to check it out. Assuming DA, Bennett, Knox et al will be good enough is a risk.

I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren

by lookingdeadred on Feb 11, 2010 9:43 AM CST up reply actions  

Fantastic, and very informative post.

I’ve always been a Hester supporter as a WR, and part-time returner. I tend to agree with the notion that great returners flame out and fade away rather quickly. It’s only natural to want to get the ball in his hands on offense. Too bad Turner didn’t effectively do it as much as we would have liked. Based on his ‘09 numbers, he’s right at or near the top in a lot of important statistical categories. If not for injuries and offensive ineptitude, he would’ve been the first Bears WR to reach 1,000 yards since Booker?

I believe in Martz’s system he’ll thrive as a 3rd WR matched up against inferior defenders, once Aroma and Knox/Bennett gain respectability as outside threats.

"The country is full of good coaches. What it takes to win is a bunch of interested players." -Don Coryell, ex-San Diego Chargers Coach

by propheteer on Feb 10, 2010 10:31 AM CST reply actions  

We are on the same page.

I see exactly the same fit for Devin, and I have wanted to see him in that role for years. One of the things I’ve seen so far that has me feeling a touch optimistic is that Martz sees Hester in that role.

Some days it's not worth chewing through the restraints - T-Train.

Two things are infinite: The universe and human stupidity. And I am not sure about the universe. - Albert Einstein.

by Timothy Hockemeyer on Feb 10, 2010 10:51 AM CST up reply actions  

No problem, lol.....

Here are links to the sights for the stats I used…….

http://stats.nj.com/fb/index.asp

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/football/nfl/stats/

All stats used were either taken from these two sites or tabulated using stats taken from these two sites.

Some days it's not worth chewing through the restraints - T-Train.

Two things are infinite: The universe and human stupidity. And I am not sure about the universe. - Albert Einstein.

by Timothy Hockemeyer on Feb 10, 2010 10:48 AM CST up reply actions  

Martz' words for Hester, "stupid good."

yeah I’d let Martz work with that for a lil while.

by No It All on Feb 10, 2010 10:49 AM CST reply actions  

+1

Some days it's not worth chewing through the restraints - T-Train.

Two things are infinite: The universe and human stupidity. And I am not sure about the universe. - Albert Einstein.

by Timothy Hockemeyer on Feb 10, 2010 11:03 AM CST up reply actions  

I think your statistical representation of Aromashodu is a bit misleading

He accumulated the majority of his stats in the last 4 games, when he finally received significant playing time.
link, another link
In only 4 games:
22 catches for 282 yards, 4 td’s, which means his per game averages are 70.5 yards/g, 1 TD/g, & 5.5 recpt/game. These compare very favorably to those other young wideouts.

Obviously with such a small sample size, DA’s future production can not accurately be predicted.

The bottom line is Cutler had been calling for DA all season. When he got him on the field, they connected and produced very nicely. Martz has all but pegged Hester as his slot guy (ala Az Hakim). DA is the defacto #1 until or if the Bears bring someone else in.

by Mike Mueller on Feb 10, 2010 10:50 AM CST reply actions  

Sample size.....

I agree with you assessment on sample size, and I am definitely NOT down on ‘Shodu. I see him as our #1 sooner rather than later. But the previous 6 games do matter in the story, as Aromashodu was only able to get those stats in the final four games due to the injury to Hester. That begs the question "why wasn’t he doing this before? He’s no rookie, and he was unable to crack the starting lineup without an injury to a starter. That does play into his season, and how he performed. I’m sorry, but I’m not one of those guys who subscribes to the theory that the time a player spent behind someone else shouldn’t count towards his overall season. He was behind someone else for a reason.

All that being said, I like DA, and think that his previous 10 games have more to do with Turner’s stubbornness that with DA’s abilities. Unfortunately, that is speculation, and I won’t adjust the stats for that.

Some days it's not worth chewing through the restraints - T-Train.

Two things are infinite: The universe and human stupidity. And I am not sure about the universe. - Albert Einstein.

by Timothy Hockemeyer on Feb 10, 2010 10:58 AM CST up reply actions  

in other words.....

Why didn’t DA receive significant playing time before the Hester injury? Is it all on Turner, or is Aromashodu to blame for at least some of it? Did he not perform well enough to slide into a role that got him more field time than Rashied Davis was getting? In addition, none of that contributes to some of the stats, like drop% or YAC averages or 1st down%.

Sometimes it’s hard to place context on these things, but leaving in the entirety of the year help to understand his overall contribution more, while only using his 4 game stats leaves out the fact that something was amiss prior to that point.

Some days it's not worth chewing through the restraints - T-Train.

Two things are infinite: The universe and human stupidity. And I am not sure about the universe. - Albert Einstein.

by Timothy Hockemeyer on Feb 10, 2010 11:09 AM CST up reply actions  

lol, all that being said.....

I do see your point in this. The entire year stats don’t tell the story of his late year success any more than his late year stats tell the story of his entire year struggles.

That’s the problem with statistical analysis. you have to filch through the stats to find what you think tells the most accurate story.

Being that the article was on Hester, and the full year, I felt that DA’s full year stats applied. But I just as easily could have left out his 6 lesser games for effect, especially considering that my personal feelings place blame closer to Turner than DA on his early year production.

Some days it's not worth chewing through the restraints - T-Train.

Two things are infinite: The universe and human stupidity. And I am not sure about the universe. - Albert Einstein.

by Timothy Hockemeyer on Feb 10, 2010 11:15 AM CST up reply actions  

why is DA #1 by defacto

we have Knox (which i would say is more of a slot speedster than a no 1) and Bennett not to mention the others that are on the roster..or will grab after march 1st.
DA played in 4 games at the end of the season. if you throwout the freakish game against MN because it is an outlier statistically then you are looking at an average guy. I would say if you are going to make hester a slot styled guy then you almost have to put your next best WR at no1 and that is Bennett, who you line up at no.2 is well either one of two guys..you either have DA or Knox. the fact that Iglesias has yet to take a snap kinda rules him out in my book unless he just impresses in training camp this year. just looking at the stats.. DA is not a YAC guy. he is more of a in your face kind of WR. if you were to double his catches he still has less YAC on more receptions than knox. We will all see in training camp what goes down. march 1 is just around the corner.

Bring back our honey bears...sick and tired of hearing about the dallas cowboy cheerleaders and the bars they go work at when they quit. cold weather + cheerleaders in skimpy outfits = lots of fun

by tomh115 on Feb 10, 2010 11:30 AM CST up reply actions  

I like Bennett, but.....

I think you hurt him by making him the X receiver. He’s more of a Y possession type, and did very well in that role last season. But your argument brings up a good point that seems to have a debate built right into it and exactly zero easy answers. Either way, I don’t see Bennett as a #1 in a Martz system that values speed.

I agree that Aromashodu gave us a very small sample size, Minnesota wasn’t his only good game. Wasn’t even his best game, except where yards are concerned. He had more receptions against GB and another TD, and he had 2 TDs vs Det in week 17 while catching 5 balls for 46 yards. I think he’s earned some interest at the #1 spot., and his skill set is more in tune with being the X receiver. Tallest receiver on the team, and fast.

The Bears have 4 very solid young receivers and possibly 5 (nobody has any idea about Iglesias yet) that could merit a X, Y or Z spot. The only receiver on the team that I think has a clear spot is Hester. Bennett’s exactly what you want in a #2 receiver. But then, Iglesias possesses a similar skill set and is a little taller. If he comes on strong, he could battle Bennett for our top possession spot. Who knows? The one thing bennett does not possess is speed. And we all know how much Martz loves speed.

We have a glut of good young receivers. Martz has already alluded to Hester being the slot this coming year. So that leaves X and Y up for grabs. ‘Shodu, Bennett and Knox have all made a great case for them taking those spots. DA fits the #1 mold the best, physically. And I like Bennett as the #2 possession receiver, as I said before. But then where does that leave Johnny Lightning? And what if Iglesias has a big coming out party in week 1? I know, IF doesn’t do much. But it should be addressed. The Bears drafted him for a reason.

The problem is that, no matter who fills the X,Y and Z spots, someone is going to be left out who maybe shouldn’t have been. The perceived position of weakness last season has become a position that has too many worthy players trying to fill them (which should make for some great WR progression in camp, BTW). I would expect Martz to run quite a few 4 and even 5 receiver sets. But some players will get limited time, regardless.

For what my opinion is worth (and that ain’t much) I think it plays out like this:

1-Aromashodu
2-Bennett
3-Hester
4-Knox
5-whatever FA they bring in
6-Iglesias

and being the eternal optimist, I see their stats like this:

1-DA 70 recs/ 1050 yards/ 9 TDs
2 Bennett 50 recs/ 650 yards/ 4 TDs
3 Hester 50 recs/ 700 yards/ 6 TDs
4 Knox 35 recs/ 500 yards / 4 TDs
5 FA 15 rec/ 200 yards/ 0 TDs
6 Iglesias 10 recs/ 130 yards/ 1 TD

Matt Forte 260 carries/1100 yards/6 TDs/60 recs/600 Yards/4 TDs
Greg Olsen 50 recs/600 yards/ 8 TDs

Jay Cutler 360 comp/ 555 attempts/4500 yards/ 36 TDs/ 16 INTs

I said I was being optimistic, right?

Some days it's not worth chewing through the restraints - T-Train.

Two things are infinite: The universe and human stupidity. And I am not sure about the universe. - Albert Einstein.

by Timothy Hockemeyer on Feb 10, 2010 1:19 PM CST up reply actions  

I think it's inevitable that Knox makes one of the first 2 spots.

You said it in your post. Martz values speed. Knox is speed. And it looks like he has a pretty good football IQ.

If what Martz said about Hester holds up, then there will be less reason to have Knox return so many kicks, which frees him up for starting duties.

Which leaves DA/Bennet battling for the other spot. Unless we bring in a guy good enough to push them both down the depth chart (very unlikely). I’d like to see DA. Then bring in Bennett for 4th WR or to occasionally spell Hester at 3rd WR for underneath routes.

by ChiLobo#23 on Feb 10, 2010 2:29 PM CST up reply actions  

good idea except

swap Bennet and Knox’s positions. I think knox will spell Hester because their skill sets are most alike

Do or do not there is not try-Master Yoda

by suckmyditka on Feb 11, 2010 7:48 AM CST up reply actions  

Knox is too small to hold the outside of the field ....

WE NEED A BIG FARGAN RECEIVER PEOPLE – HELLLLOOOOOOOO !!!!

by Irish Bears Fan on Feb 11, 2010 9:22 PM CST up reply actions  

NONSENSE

Johnny Knox: 6’0’’ 180.
Torry Holt: 6’0’’ 190.
Isaac Bruce: 6’0’’ 188.

Same body type. As long as his skills continue their natural progression, he’s a starter in this offense. Also, he should put on 10lbs of muscle in the offseason.

by ChiLobo#23 on Feb 12, 2010 6:19 PM CST up reply actions  

wow

he doesn’t look 6 foot, I mean Aroma is only 2 inches taller than Knox

by DaHamsta on Feb 12, 2010 9:28 PM CST up reply actions  

Here's some WR's not over 6'0"...

Laveranues Coles, both Steve Smiths, Santana Moss, Santonio Holmes, Greg Jennings, Wes Welker.

What good is a tall WR if he can’t play…we’ll be fine.

(Asshole Sr) "If you learn one thing here, NEVER pass out in Ohio."

by ThorCo on Feb 15, 2010 8:32 PM CST up reply actions  

doubtful, he has slot receiver written all ovber him

I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren

by lookingdeadred on Feb 12, 2010 7:54 AM CST up reply actions  

NONSENSE

See above. We’re clashing a lot lately on our opinions, I’ve noticed. :-)

by ChiLobo#23 on Feb 12, 2010 6:20 PM CST up reply actions  

I've noticed that too, you used to be so sensible, what happened?

Seriously, Knox is not two inches shorter than DA, but he can be a starter in Martz’s offense as he is perfect for a slot receiver spot.

I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren

by lookingdeadred on Feb 13, 2010 10:10 AM CST up reply actions  

Didnt we go over this going into last year??

Everyone gets soo caught up in whos the #1, whos the slot, whos gonna line up here, whos gonna be better than Rashied Davis. Ok that last one was a joke. But seriously, with all the motions before the huddle with this new offense dont you think they all will line up in the slot at some point in each game maybe with the exception of Aromashadu.

"How sad, another victim of the Night Nurses from Jersey."

by ANYTIME09 on Feb 13, 2010 2:22 PM CST up reply actions  

Not really,

most slot receivers will be inside the wide receivers at the snap.

I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren

by lookingdeadred on Feb 14, 2010 9:37 AM CST up reply actions  

yeah we almost have too much depth at wr now..haha

well sorta..we have too many young players that really havent had enough time to show where they belong. Hester in the slot would give us stupid speed out of the slot. but so would Knox. Quite frankly i would love to see the offense like this.

1) Hester/DA splitting time
2)Bennett/Iglesias to spell
3) Knox/Olsen splitting time
4)DA/Olsen whoever isnt in at 1/3
5)Olsen/DA whoever isnt in at 1/3/4
6)Iglesias

I would also use Hester more in a wild ’cane package using a split back forte/hester backfield for just some shear craziness.
Could use Knox/Hester as return guys and spell them with the appropriate backups.. It is really hard to put my vision into words..but i hope it kinda makes sense

Bring back our honey bears...sick and tired of hearing about the dallas cowboy cheerleaders and the bars they go work at when they quit. cold weather + cheerleaders in skimpy outfits = lots of fun

by tomh115 on Feb 10, 2010 2:56 PM CST up reply actions  

that would be getting rid of McKie and possibly making one of our blocking TEs get in the fullback position when needed.

Bring back our honey bears...sick and tired of hearing about the dallas cowboy cheerleaders and the bars they go work at when they quit. cold weather + cheerleaders in skimpy outfits = lots of fun

by tomh115 on Feb 10, 2010 2:57 PM CST up reply actions  

those stats dont look TOO inflated

but i say cutler goes 36tds/24ints

Do or do not there is not try-Master Yoda

by suckmyditka on Feb 19, 2010 12:22 PM CST up reply actions  

why is DA the defacto #1?

lack of WR talent and too much optimism.

I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren

by lookingdeadred on Feb 10, 2010 5:41 PM CST up reply actions  

OR!

It could be because he actually did a good job and the team rewards him, you know? Like successful teams do? Probably not used to that here, though.

by GentleGoodnight on Feb 10, 2010 8:17 PM CST up reply actions  

In four whole games

I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren

by lookingdeadred on Feb 11, 2010 9:45 AM CST up reply actions  

So how many games did he need to do well in?

How many games does it take to decide you should give a player a shot? It’s not like we’re moving randy Moss to the number 2 spot to make room for him at the number 1.

by GentleGoodnight on Feb 24, 2010 3:32 PM CST up reply actions  

DA may become an elite WR

but it is way too soon (a whole 4 games) to assume as much. Next season other teams will pay more attention to him and no one knows if he will be able to up his game. Hopefully he will.

I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren

by lookingdeadred on Feb 24, 2010 3:45 PM CST up reply actions  

No ....

……….. because the kid is good at everything . Notice our run blocking on the outside improved when DA was in the game . He used his big body and blocked the guys much better than even out TE’s . This kids gonna be good . If you can don’t judge by stats judge by watching him play . Those games he started he looked great ( minus the Ravens game where the whole team looked like a steaming pile of …….. ) .

by MidWayMonster54 on Feb 11, 2010 12:43 AM CST up reply actions  

Of all the WR's on the roster I think

DA has the potential to become that #1

He has good size, good speed, and has shown an ability to go get the ball.

by Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. on Feb 11, 2010 10:09 AM CST up reply actions  

I agree wholeheartedly

DA is the best of the bunch … potentially, but for a team that wants to compete for the big prize next year, I would hope they would want to have at least one proven WR.

I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren

by lookingdeadred on Feb 11, 2010 12:05 PM CST up reply actions  

he has played four games ... get a grip people

I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren

by lookingdeadred on Feb 12, 2010 7:55 AM CST up reply actions  

becauae DA

Has the speed, size, hands, and playmaking ability to be a number 1. Bennet isn’t quite fast enough, but makes a great no2, knox doesn’t have the size, but makes a great slot. So DA is the only true “no 1 product” on the team right now

Do or do not there is not try-Master Yoda

by suckmyditka on Feb 11, 2010 7:46 AM CST up reply actions  

just looking at the stats.. DA is not a YAC guy. he is more of a in your face kind of WR. if you were to double his catches he still has less YAC on more receptions than knox.

You’ve missed the fact that 1 in 6 of Aromashpdu’s receptions were for TDs (compared to 1 in 9 for Knox… or, to put it another way, only one fewer TD in just over half the number of receptions). I don’t know off the top of my head how many were caught in the endzone, but obviously those don’t tally any YAC and, with such a small sample size and a potential skewing factor, I would be hesitant to brand him anything just yet on the basis of that statistic.

"F*** everybody outside of Halas Hall. BEARDOWN" - WavyGravy
"if we need it, we’re not drafting it. not high anyway. look for Angelo to go after a DL/DE – because that’s just the kind of asshat he is.." - junkhorse
"44 years of football history and nothing to show for it. I wish I wasn’t banned at the Norseman.." - tfrabotta

by Spongie on Feb 23, 2010 6:06 AM CST up reply actions  

I think they should do both.

I like what the new OC said about Devin being great in the slot and having more time for returns. It’s what a lot of people have wanted for 3 years, only the old OC didn’t get it.

by GentleGoodnight on Feb 10, 2010 8:20 PM CST reply actions  

I'm an "Other" kind of guy

Absolutely allow him to be our full-time return man again…

He also needs to be in the slot, where he can create mismatches and draw attention away from our other players. Hester is a playmaker… So put him in situations where he can make plays. I don’t know of any Nickel package corners in the NFL, that can handle Hester… I think I just got a little excited!

To use him on returns only, would be a waste…. and stupid.

by rdent4hof on Feb 11, 2010 8:43 AM CST reply actions  

exactly

I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren

by lookingdeadred on Feb 11, 2010 9:45 AM CST up reply actions  

lol

at i think i just got a little excited. the more i think about it i find myself agreeing with 23 in the slot. lots of easy slant passes to be had for devin there and hopefully he can break some ankles and make our autumn sundays more enjoyable

by reefermadness3 on Feb 11, 2010 11:37 AM CST up reply actions  

Hester is getting open ?

Then why is he got so few catches when he’s been targeted so many times. Stop looking at stats and look at tape ! Believe your eyes …. and 3 TDs from a #1 receiver ?

by Irish Bears Fan on Feb 11, 2010 9:17 PM CST reply actions  

Try looking at the stats instead of believing what you thought you saw.....

The stats put what you saw into perspective. Hester’s catch% is in tune with a #1 receiver, and beat several of the #1 receivers on this list. I don’t know what you thought you say, but over 62% is pretty good in this league. You can’t just look at Hester and assume the rest of the league is better. I’ll provide catch percentages for the top receivers in the league when I get home.

Some days it's not worth chewing through the restraints - T-Train.

Two things are infinite: The universe and human stupidity. And I am not sure about the universe. - Albert Einstein.

by Timothy Hockemeyer on Feb 12, 2010 8:16 AM CST up reply actions  

Dont bother you will never sway Irish Bears Fan, he just comes on here to stir the pot.

The only time he comments is when its negative. Its really starting to wear on me too, because like you said he doesnt want to believe what the stats say, alot like the rest of the HESTER HATERS but trust me he is the freakin head of that committee.

"How sad, another victim of the Night Nurses from Jersey."

by ANYTIME09 on Feb 13, 2010 2:25 PM CST up reply actions  

lol.......

But……I feel this need to save him. :)

Some days it's not worth chewing through the restraints - T-Train.

Two things are infinite: The universe and human stupidity. And I am not sure about the universe. - Albert Einstein.

by Timothy Hockemeyer on Feb 14, 2010 12:56 AM CST up reply actions  

Hester

was targeted 91 times and had 57 receptions. that’s good for roughly 62% catch per target. That’s team leading. Not many recievers catch 62% of the passes thrown to them.

Do or do not there is not try-Master Yoda

by suckmyditka on Feb 19, 2010 12:26 PM CST up reply actions  

Just forget it, according to some.....

That just isnt good enough.

"How sad, another victim of the Night Nurses from Jersey."

by ANYTIME09 on Feb 19, 2010 5:16 PM CST up reply actions  

What I see is this:

Decent stats and definite improvement in the production department. But a guy who is really not that great of a receiver. His route running is average at best. He is actually not good in traffic. His hands are OK on the high balls but he can’t dig the ball or get down low to make the tough shoe-string catch. He has never shown us the ability to stretch out and come down in-bounds on the sidelines. His overall catching zone is actually pretty small. If the ball is not on the numbers, he misses. Lastly, he is not fluid and is terrible at adjusting both when in the air or when trying to run under a deep pass. Yes, Hester can often beat his man but he can’t finish well; either he over-runs balls, under runs balls or ends up getting turned around and is unable to adjust. The fact is he simply doesn’t have the instincts that you want out of a high quality NFL receiver. His greatest asset and the reason for the conversion was his open field running ability. Frankly, I can only come up with two or three plays where he actually translated his open field running (that made him “Ridiculous” as a returner) into meaningful plays as a receiver. I think his increased production is on account of the respect he gets from DBs because of his speed. By far, his most common catches are come back routes or 5-10 yard outs where he is getting a cushion. Perhaps in the slot he’ll really get a chance to do some damage if he can get the ball on the run in space but as an x or y receiver, I would take Bennett and/or DA any day over Hester.

by The Kaiser on Feb 13, 2010 11:27 AM CST reply actions  

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