Before I get into why I think what I think, I want to preface it with a couple scenarios in which they shouldn't trade down. First off, if Angelo can trade up to take FS Nate Allen of South Florida he should do so. If he's still available in the mid second round trading up could be a possibility. But I wouldn't be surprised to see him go in the 1st round as the 3rd safety drafted.
Secondly, if the Bears #75 pick comes around and sitting there is either FS Morgan Burnett of Georgia Tech or G Jon Asamoah of Illinois you take them. First Burnett then Asamoah in my opinion, but many mocks have them both gone. So if that's the case I don't think any other FS or interior lineman is worthy of pick #75. Jerry Angelo should trade down.
EmmCee was nice enough to post a copy of the Jimmy Johnson draft value chart, seen here. Every team uses some sort of chart to gauge draft pick value, it may not be that exact one, but be assured they all have a chart close at hand. I'll be referencing that chart later in my post so I want you to be aware of which I'll be speaking.
When the Bears finally have a chance to select their free safety draft board might look like this;
Eric Berry - Tennessee
Earl Thomas - Texas
Nate Allen - South Florida
Taylor Mays - USC
Morgan Burnett - Georgia Tech
Akwasi Owusu-Ansah - Indiana (PA)
Myron Lewis - Vanderbilt
Major Wright - Florida
Quentin Scott - Northern Iowa
Those next 4 guys on their FS board could all be had if the Bears drafted further down the draft. Owusu-Ansah may very well be gone, as some teams value him more as a corner. I have seen him going as high as the 2nd round, but most have him in the 3rd-4th round range. Lewis is getting as high of a 3rd round grade, but most scouts assess him as a 4th rounder. Johnson is consistently seen as a 5th round prospect by many, although I think the Bears rate him a tad higher than most. Wright is another 3rd-4th rounder, and Scott is a fast riser with some great measureables. He's more a project guy (6th-7th round) that I wanted to make you all aware of because I can see the Bears taking him late. Scott (6'4" 224) played well in the Texas vs. the Nation All Star Game which the Bears usually scout pretty thoroughly. He ran a 4.4 40 and had a vertical of 35 inches. Athletic kid.
So if the Bears covet either of the next 4 guys on their FS board at least one of them could be drafted further down the 3rd round or early in the 4th. Two more to keep an eye on are Reshad Jones of Georgia and Darrell Stuckey of Kansas. These two are strong safety's that have the speed to play free safety and could be 3rd-4th round possibilities. All this tells me a trade down makes sense.
But lets look at the interior lineman the Bears may target. Their draft board could look like this;
C - Maurkice Pouncy - Florida
G -Mike Iupati - Idaho
G - Jon Asamoah - Illinois
G - Vladimir Ducasse - Massachusetts
G - John Jerry - MIssissippi
G - Mitch Petrus - Arkansas
C - Matt Tennant - Boston College
G - Mike Johnson - Alabama
G - Zane Beadles - Utah
G - Marshall Newhouse - TCU
C - J.D. Walton - Baylor
C - Eric Olsen - Notre Dame
C - Ted Larsen - N.C. State
Yeah I know some of those guys could project to right tackle, but I think their best position in the NFL will end up being guard, so I'll put them on the interior lineman board. And I've found a big variance in regards to a lot of lineman with different scouts, so I put together my best guesstimate.
Ducasse and Jerry are two guys that scouts differ on, most have them gone before pick #75 so I'll assume they will be selected. The next 6 of those players are all rated around the 4th round. Olsen and Larsen are both getting the 4th-5th round grade.
Let's say the Bears are really high on Petrus, Johnson, and Beadles. At least one of those guys will be there in the 4th round. Again this tells me trading down makes sense.
So... If Jerry Angelo can trade down from 75 which is worth 215 points (I told you I'd reference that chart), to a later part of the 3rd round and pick up an extra pick in the 4th, giving him 3 picks in that 3rd-4th round range I think he could get his FS and G he covets and pick up an additional player in the process.
Angelo and his staff will have to work the phones but here are some examples of deals he may consider.
The Cardinals have picks 88 (150 pts) and 89 (145 pts) in the 3rd round and pick 123 (49 pts) in the 4th. The Bears could allow Arizona to move up to 75 and pick up their 88 & 123. I wasn't planing on math being in this post, but... Those two Cardinals picks are worth 199 points and the Chicago pick is worth 215 points. So that trade makes mathematical sense. Many times the team initiating the trade will over pay slightly, but the Bears could try and squeeze a late pick to make up the 16 point difference.
The Seahawks hold two 4th round selections at 104 & 127 (131 total pts) and they also hold two 5th round picks, 133 (the 2nd pick in the 5th round worth 39.5 pts) and 139 (36.5 pts). The Seahawks have plenty of ammo to move up to the Bears 75th pick. The Bears could trade down for both those Seattle 4th rounders and pick up a 2011 4th rounder to boot. With three 4th round picks the Bears still should be able to get two of the guys on their draft boards.
The Eagles are sitting at 87 (155 pts), 105 (84 pts), and 121 (52 pts), for them to move up and get the Bears selection at 75 (215 pts), they could send Chicago their 87th & 121st (207 pts), allowing Chicago to move down the 3rd and pick up that extra 4th round pick. If the Bears want that 87th & 105th (239 pts) they would have to find an additional 24 points in one of their late round picks.
These are just a few scenarios Angelo could pursue, working out a three team deal could be in the cards as well. Having only the 1st round on Thursday will give teams all of Thursday night to reevaluate their boards and prep themselves for some trade possibilities.
I'm just thinking out loud here, but the Bears could trade down, fill two needs by drafting both FS Robert Johnson and OG Mitch Petrus, and snap up the best player available. Maybe West Virginia tackle Selvish Capers or Iowa corner Amari Spivey would be sitting there in the 4th. Virginia Tech S/OLB Kam Chancellor would be a viable 4th round option. Picking up some WR depth could happen as well. Or maybe double dipping and getting another FS or G. Trading down usually elicits a cringe from Bears fans, but this time, if things fall just right, the Bears could come away with 2 starters with their first two picks.
I just hope JA doesn't screw anything up...