The Elusive #1 Running Back
by Mike Mueller on May 12, 2010 11:00 AM CDT
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We have spent months and years discussing the Chicago Bears receivers; who is our #1 receiver, what is a true #1 receiver, is Devin Aromashodu that guy? is Devin Hester that guy? The Bears' running game has not exactly been a beacon of hope either, so now lets talk a little bit about our running backs.
After his stellar rookie year, we all thought Matt Forte was going to be "the man": a 3-down, workhorse, TD-machine running back. His 2nd year, marred by injury, left us rethinking that notion. AP backup Chester Taylor is now in the fold. Running back by committee! Yeah! (Fantasy Football players everywhere sigh.) Both Forte & Taylor are almost adequate runners (2009 YPC of 3.6 for both) and are great catching passes out of the backfield (57 & 44 receptions in 2009 respectively) . Forte is a below average pass-blocker, while Taylor is sufficient (link).
A lot of these numbers are dependent on the offensive system they are in, the quality of the offensive linemen, the quality of the QB, the quality of the defense they face, etc. Just how elusive are these guys?
ProFootballFocus has developed a stat called elusive rating. Over the course of a season they keep track of an enormous amount of statistics which can be found here for rushing stats & here for receiving stats for running backs. Besides the obvious stats like yards, attempts, receptions, etc; they also have "YCo" which is the cumulative number of yards gained rushing after contact with a defender. Also listed is "MT" which is the cumulative number of tackles broken or avoided. MT is listed separately in the rushing & receiving stats pages.
The PFF article looks at the top 10 & bottom 10 of yards after contact as a percentage of total yards gained, and also the amount of missed tackles as a ratio of total touches. These charts can teach us a lot about what running backs are doing their work themselves (see Michael Bush & Tim Hightower), or greatly helped by their offensive line (see Thomas Jones).
They combine all this data to come up with the Elusive Rating.
To determine the Elusive Rating, we combined receptions and carries to create a "ball-handling opportunities" figure, and then combined total missed tackles forced. Next we divided the total missed tackles forced by the ball-handling opportunities. Then we multiplied this figure by the player's average yards after first contact [rushing] x100 to make the end figure.
The magic formula:
(MTrush+MTrec)/(Rec+Att)*(YCo/Att*100)
NOTE: They do not have a YCo number for receptions. The YCo is yards gained after contact with a defender when rushing the football. YAC is yards after catch irrespective of contact with a defender and is not used in this formula.
So where is all this leading to? Well when looking at the top 10 & bottom 10, we see the Bears new RB Chester Taylor at dead last in the NFL. Ugh.
Another back whose workload has always been carefully monitored is [Adrian] Peterson. The load-sharing dynamic in the Vikings' backfield last season was an interesting one, with Peterson doing much of the dirty work, and Chester Taylor being responsible largely for the third-down duties, in part because of his ability as a pass receiver and his shifty nature after the catch. It might surprise some (it certainly surprised us) to see Taylor rank dead last of all runners who qualified in Elusive Rating, with a score of just 8.03.
By contrast, Peterson was able to fight his way to a score of 48.60, good enough for ninth overall. Perhaps the inability of Taylor to get any more than was available factored into Minnesota's decision to allow him to leave in free agency, and their aggressive trade up in the draft to secure Toby Gerhart, whose game tape is all about gaining more yards than should feasibly be there.
I downloaded all the PFF running back data to recreate the results and get Forte in there too. In 2009, of the 63 running backs who qualified (>25% of offensive plays on the field), Chester Taylor ranked 63rd (last) in elusive rating, and Matt Forte ranked 34th (middle of the pack).
In order to expand my knowledge on some of these guys, I looked at 2008 as well. Matt Forte ranked 52nd (bottom 1/4th) and Chester Taylor ranked a respectable 22nd.
Elusive Rating Spreadsheet Download
2009 Top Ten Elusive:
| 1 Justin Forsett | ||||||||||
| 2 Jonathan Stewart | ||||||||||
| 3 Pierre Thomas | ||||||||||
| 4 Ronnie Brown | ||||||||||
| 5 Fred Jackson | ||||||||||
| 6 Ahmad Bradshaw | ||||||||||
| 7 Ray Rice | ||||||||||
| 8 Michael Turner | ||||||||||
| 9 Jamaal Charles | ||||||||||
|
10 Adrian L. Peterson 2009 Bottom Ten Elusive:
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Comments
Forte number 35 wow!
I still think Forte will be a top 5-10 back in the NFL..Forte fits perfectly into this system
by I love football! on May 12, 2010 11:15 AM CDT reply actions
I see Forte still as the starter
With Taylor seeing more work that he had in Minnesota.
"When I played pro football, I never set out to hurt anyone deliberately - unless it was, you know, important, like a league game or something." ~ Dick Butkus
by Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. on May 12, 2010 11:17 AM CDT reply actions
Probably because he hit Rihanna.
(and yes, I know I’m late to the game)
-------
"Newbie, if the next two words out of your mouth aren't 'See ya' then the third word will be 'Oh my god. My crotch. You've punched me in my crotch." - Dr. Percival Ulysses Cox
by David Taylor on May 13, 2010 7:45 PM CDT up reply actions
eh...
Forte will be the starting back after a time..we can’t use last season as a measure since Lovie was kind enough to wait and ah…not tell us our main RB was hurt almost all season..til the end of the season. Plus Taylor can help cut out a good 25% of that workload so he hopefully doesn’t get injured again.
09 stats for Forte are also Ron Turner's
New system, new assignments, new everything.
I think Forte and C. Taylor’s opportunities to be elusive in Martz’s offense, are far greater than what they would’ve had with Turner. Typically catching the ball allows you some open space to work your magic. And Martz has always gotten his RBs involved in the passing game. I think our RBs & WRs will be fine.
It’s the O-line I’m truly concerned about.
Looks like you have your homework assignment ...
"When I played pro football, I never set out to hurt anyone deliberately - unless it was, you know, important, like a league game or something." ~ Dick Butkus
by Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. on May 12, 2010 11:55 AM CDT up reply actions
Ha! I would BUT
I don’t know how to get hold of the forced missed tackle stat.
And no, I do not have the means to look at old Martz-ran-offense’s film.
Guess you could call me r’azy!
Fix the line problems injury and all the statistical stuff goes out the window.
Seems Cedric Benson did OK once he left the Bears.
Benson
Cedric Benson needed to grow up. The scare of never again playing in the league must have opened his eyes. Thomas Jones ran just fine behind our o-line.
Space Mountain on Three; One, Two, Three, Space Mountain!
Thomas Jones ran just fine behind our o-line.
So did Benson his rookie year. Oddly enough, when Jones left, Benson’s struggles began.
Well being lazy doesn't help your cause either.
Benson didn’t learn how to be an NFL RB until he was out of a job.
"A positive attitude may not solve all your problems, but it will annoy enough people to make it worth the effort. " – Herm Albright
by Ditkavsworld on May 12, 2010 12:20 PM CDT up reply actions
I stand by my statement
I thought he did a fine job spelling Jones during the run to the Super Bowl.
I'm not saying he didn't.
I actually agree with you that he was fine when Jones was here, after they let Jones go and they handed him the job he became lazy and unmotivated and basically led to his demise as a Chicago RB. He never would’ve been as good as Sweetness anyway. And yes I compare any and all players to Sweetness and none of them measure up to my unattainable expectations and therefore are garbage. So there. ;)
"A positive attitude may not solve all your problems, but it will annoy enough people to make it worth the effort. " – Herm Albright
by Ditkavsworld on May 12, 2010 12:27 PM CDT up reply actions
Good glad we are in agreement
now go get me a juicebox.
"A positive attitude may not solve all your problems, but it will annoy enough people to make it worth the effort. " – Herm Albright
by Ditkavsworld on May 12, 2010 12:33 PM CDT up reply actions
I don't know if I should be worried or not.
"A positive attitude may not solve all your problems, but it will annoy enough people to make it worth the effort. " – Herm Albright
by Ditkavsworld on May 12, 2010 1:11 PM CDT up reply actions
now how come he doesn't become juicebox with a statement
like that?
"That's racist."
by BearNecessities on May 13, 2010 4:15 AM CDT up reply actions
Highlander rules state there can only be one, and that's you.
BearNecessities you're my assistant, okay you're supposed to
back me up and go get me juice boxes when I tell you. Now go get me
a juice box.
by Ditkavsworld on May 13, 2010 7:32 AM CDT up reply actions 3 recs
thats an interesting read but...
I would take AP over the 8 guys ahead of him. And like someone pointed out, Chris Johnson is even in the top ten. It would be a hard choice to pick who is better out of the two. I hate facing AP twive a year and thank god he can’t hold onto the rock! I think our offense will be very deadly this season. Can’t wait.
by Ryan21 on May 12, 2010 12:03 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
PFF does absolutely fantastic work.
That being said, it is a bit concerning to see these numbers. Our 2009 OL was awful… moving CWilliams to LT will do wonders for us, and hopefully Omiyale can seal off the other side (if he’s worth what we are paying him). Manumaleuna will provide a push in short-yardage situations, and if we can get an average performance out of Kreutz, Garza, and whoever plays LG, then we’ll be in good shape.
But, that’s a lot of ifs.
Nice post MuleTrain.
I don't think the starter matters.
I think that at the end of the 2010 season we will see both players near 200 carries for the year (barring injury). I think the Bears will be able to keep a fresh back in the backfield the entire game and actually prefer that then having a “feature back” who takes 250-300 carries.
I think Forte took a lot of abuse in his rookie season and he wasn’t fresh for the 2009 season. I honestly think the number of touches he had in 2008 had an effect on his health and mental wear in 2009.
This year, you’ll have a hungry Chester Taylor in the backfield with a motivated Matt Forte giving a pretty devastating 1-2 pucnh in the NFC North.
Best 1-2 RB combo in the NFC North?
Semper Fi
Chester is a good pass protecter
The article says “sufficient.” I think that’s wrong. He’s quite good at picking up blitzes. That’s one of the reasons he’s so valuable on 3rd down. He can stay in and protect well if the defense blitzes, allowing the QB time to go to a TE or possesion receiver to get the 1st down. If no blitz comes, he can chip the DE, slide out of the backfield and catch the ball. He knows where the first down marker is. He was a good pick-up for the offense.
If you didn't already know
Anyone who comes to the Bears, their ability all of a sudden never existed or was never as good as they made it out to be on their previous team.
F*** Mark Schlereth( just thought I would throw that in there).
Adrian Pedestrian!! Now that's funny Mr. Bayless...
Seems That Way
I live in Minneapolis. I am a Bears fan, but I watch a lot of the Vikes games. Chester has always looked to me like a very solid fundamentals guy who plays hard. I think he will bring a level of professionalism and toughness that the Bears need.
(I also have seen Bears fans moaning about Bernard Berrian leaving. He’s ok, but hasn’t exactly done anything great up here. Sidney Rice has been the guy who’s really come on strong).
Berrian...
I knew when he left the Vikings would regret that contract. You could just see Rice was gonna break out.
"When I played pro football, I never set out to hurt anyone deliberately - unless it was, you know, important, like a league game or something." ~ Dick Butkus
by Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. on May 12, 2010 2:32 PM CDT up reply actions
While I did not want to see Berrian go
I would have been more upset should the Bears have paid him that ridiculous amount of $ he was asking.
I think slapping the franchise tag on his would have made the most sense
It would have been around 7 million for the 1 year, then the Bears would have at least 1 established WR, and if he didn’t do much they could then let him go. But if he played OK that year I’m sure it would have helped them to the playoffs.
"When I played pro football, I never set out to hurt anyone deliberately - unless it was, you know, important, like a league game or something." ~ Dick Butkus
by Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. on May 12, 2010 4:02 PM CDT up reply actions
Interesting stat
But I feel like it would miss out on guys with incredible vision like Chris Johnson, the ones who manipulate their blockers and see the lanes better than their counterparts who are better at running people over.
Great gathering of stats
It would be cool indeed if all there was to evaluating football players was statistics. I’m applauding the effort it took to gather all of the above by the amazing Mule Train.
Suffice it to say that the computers and statisticians that can be had by the deep pockets of NFL teams, still have trouble consistently predicting a bust, or putting together a Super Bowl team. Stats have their uses, and can be a valuable tool and I look at them that way. Beyond that, I look for other factors that are intangible.
"Do or do not... there is no try." - Yoda
Beyond that, I look for other factors that are intangible.
We all do that. This stat just lets people look for RB’s who might be under or over valued. Nothing more.
by Mike Mueller on May 13, 2010 8:05 AM CDT up reply actions
I find it hard to believe in a stat
that has so much variability.
If one guy is 52nd and then 34th, and another is 22nd and then 63rd, we either have to assume your skill changes profoundly from year to year or that something other than pure skill is being measured.
It’s a good attempt to isolate the effect of running backs independent from their line, but I don’t think that’s been achieved yet.
Vinny: "[Thrust] means pace, it means getting the ball out, it means getting your back to the sidelines, it means extending your outlets, it means getting the ball up the court into our early offense with plenty of time."
I agree
I think there are way too many factors on any given play that can determine whether a tackle is broken or not due to the RB’s abilities. Maybe the RB’s are playing defenses that just suck. And like someone said, some RB’s are so good they simply can’t be touched (Chris Johnson).
It’s impressive seeing all those numbers and it makes for good debate, but I get the feeling this kind of stat – when you get to the heart of it – isn’t really telling us much of anything.
by NorthSideBearsFan on May 12, 2010 11:39 PM CDT up reply actions
I disagree.
There is nothing absolute about the stats here, nobody is arguing that either. It allows you to look for trends and/or guys who are undervalued or overvalued (think Moneyball). Obviously, Adrian Peterson & Chris Johnson are the two best backs in football. But when you look at the 2008 & 2009 elusive stats, you can see that a guy like Fred Jackson is not getting his due from the fans and his own coaches & front office (see 2010 draft). He’s consistently performed well enough to relegate Marshawn Lynch into an afterthought, but not well enough for his coaches to draft a player at a much needed position instead of CJ Spiller.
It can also confirm everyone’s suspicion that indeed LaDanian Tomlinson, Larry Johnson, and Brian Westbrook are done. (probably even Thomas Jones & Clinton Portis)
by Mike Mueller on May 13, 2010 8:14 AM CDT up reply actions
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