Know da Bears From a Fantasy Football Perspective?
by PYRO_LION on Jul 17, 2010 1:00 AM CDT
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PrintI'm looking to get an edge for the upcoming season. Usually, die hard fans know the teams better than the supposed "experts" that cover them. Who knows da Bears inside and out, but also knows the ins-and-outs of fantasy football and can help me keep track of the Bears this year?
I'm new to this message board, but from looking around at some of the other posts, it looks like I came to the right place.
Thanks!
Lion
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Two words.
Rashied Davis. You can start collecting your trophy now.
"The time has come to get deeply into Football. It is the only thing we have left that ain't fixed." - HST
by JerBear50 on Jul 20, 2010 3:33 AM CDT reply actions 3 recs
That is a rec. No explination needed.
If Mike Ditka punched you in the face, you'd have to fight off the urge to thank him.
by Ditkavsworld on Jul 20, 2010 5:25 AM CDT up reply actions
and a lol
He's a 300-pound man who moves like a defensive back. That's what you're dealing with." — Bears coach Lovie Smith on DE Julius Peppers
by BearNecessities on Jul 20, 2010 8:58 AM CDT up reply actions
be green young man
In the 8th grade Mike Ditka won his school's Science Fair with a model of a working volcano. There were 17 other working volcano's made that day, but only one named Mount Ditka.
by Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. on Jul 20, 2010 9:18 AM CDT up reply actions
Jay Culter
I think he’ll put up good numbers, but he’ll spread it around so much I can’t see any Bear wideouts being any better that a #3 WR
In the 8th grade Mike Ditka won his school's Science Fair with a model of a working volcano. There were 17 other working volcano's made that day, but only one named Mount Ditka.
by Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. on Jul 20, 2010 9:19 AM CDT reply actions
I actually have this......
nagging feeling that Devin Hester is going to have a breakout year. It seems like everyone has counted him out. Hell, the guy was still on the “Wide Receiver Roulette” board in the third round. How is the #1 receiver, who would have likely reached 1000 yards last season with the injury, still on in the third round? Because Bears fans have moved on. They have placed their hopes in Knox and ’Shodu. But Devin has been quitely improving, and at this point, seems to have Martz confidence as the #1 receiver.
I can’t get past the idea that Hester takes the next step forward, and that this time next year, we won’t be talking about the need for a legitimate #1. Or a two or three for that matter. I have an unusual amount of optimism (for me at least) in our wide receiving group. And I honestly believe it to be well founded.
in•san•i•ty \in-ˈsa-nə-tē\ noun
1 : The practice of repeating the same action while expecting different results.
by Timothy Hockemeyer on Jul 20, 2010 11:59 AM CDT up reply actions
I agree to a point
I can see 1000+ yard season… but I think it gets spread around so much, I don’t think he’ll be a viable #1 or #2 (well maybe a #2), fantasy WR option
In the 8th grade Mike Ditka won his school's Science Fair with a model of a working volcano. There were 17 other working volcano's made that day, but only one named Mount Ditka.
by Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. on Jul 20, 2010 1:09 PM CDT up reply actions
Let me see if I can push that point you agree to a little farther......
Martz’s offenses have a reputation for spreading the ball around, and it’s well earned. BUT………
Fantasy points based on yardage and TDs for the #1 receiver in Martz’s offenses by year…….
’99 Isaac Bruce: 188
’00 Torry Holt: 199
’01 Torry Holt: 178
’02 Torry Holt: 158
’03 Torry Holt: 241
’04 Torry Holt: 197
’05 Torry Holt: 187
’06 Roy Williams: 173
’07 Shaun McDonald: 130 (no receiver started more than 12 games as the Lions tried to ease Megatron in)
’08 (get this!….) Isaac Bruce: 125
Now, I’ll give Martz a break on ‘07 and ’08, as the ’07 Lions were searching out who their starting WRs were going to be and trying to acclimate Calvin Johnson to the NFL, and the ’08 49ers were just ef’d up.
But in general, the leading receiver in the Martz offense gets top 10 WR numbers. In fact, in Martz 10 years as an OC and Head Coach, only ’02, ’07 and ’08 were without a receiver that would have been in the top 10 in the league for fantasy points last season. And ’02 would have placed 12th.
’09 WR Fantasy leaders based on yards and TDs
1) Andre Johnson: 210 points
2) Randy Moss: 204
3) Miles Austin: 198
4) Reggie Wayne: 186
5) Larry Fitzgerald: 185
6) Sidney Rice: 180
7) Brandon Marshall: 172
8) Roddy White: 171
9) Marques Colston: 161
10) Vincent Jackson and DeSean Jackson: 160
I’d say that Hester stands a pretty good chance at being one of the top 10 WRs in fantasy points this season. Judging by those numbers, the Martz system won’t be what stops him if he doesn’t achieve that.
in•san•i•ty \in-ˈsa-nə-tē\ noun
1 : The practice of repeating the same action while expecting different results.
by Timothy Hockemeyer on Jul 20, 2010 7:17 PM CDT up reply actions
error correction....
Isaac Bruce actually led the offense in points in ‘00 with 201 points. Holt was second with 199. So Martz’s offense produced two exceptional fantasy performances from receivers in ’00.
in•san•i•ty \in-ˈsa-nə-tē\ noun
1 : The practice of repeating the same action while expecting different results.
by Timothy Hockemeyer on Jul 20, 2010 7:22 PM CDT up reply actions
Holt was my guy for a few years in a row
when I was playing fantasy football… but I still think these Bears will spread it out a bit more than those Rams did.
In the 8th grade Mike Ditka won his school's Science Fair with a model of a working volcano. There were 17 other working volcano's made that day, but only one named Mount Ditka.
by Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. on Jul 21, 2010 8:42 AM CDT up reply actions
i think
you also have to expect less overall production than the Rams offense those years. I mean we’re talking about one of the best offenses of all time. So in general if you expect a modest decrease in production from those offenses say 10% and then, you’re starting to look at Hester and Knox as mid-level #2 WR’s with upside, who should be drafted more as #3 WRs
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Jul 21, 2010 10:20 AM CDT up reply actions
Except....
a 10% drop-off in Holts production would still put Hester in the Top 10 for receivers. Just saying………
in•san•i•ty \in-ˈsa-nə-tē\ noun
1 : The practice of repeating the same action while expecting different results.
by Timothy Hockemeyer on Jul 21, 2010 10:36 AM CDT up reply actions
if you're looking for fantasy help....
check out the site i write for
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Jul 20, 2010 3:11 PM CDT reply actions
Jay Cutler/Bears Defense
Those are your 2 sleeper picks for this Years Draft. Jay Cutler under Mike Martz as Offensive coordinator. He will flourish this Year wherer he failed last Year under Ron Turner. Julius Peppers is 1 of the top 3 DE in the NFL. Brain Urlacher is healthy, Timo is healthy, Briggs is good. This is one of the top LB cores in the league. Oh and we signed Chris Harris to shore up the secondary. So Cutler in the 4th/5th round and the Bears Defense in the 7th / 8th round will be steals in the 2010 draft. Good Luck Cabin Boy!
NFL network
Is calling for the Bears Defense to be a top 10 D in fantasy football. So they possibley could go higher than you think
by suckmyditka on Jul 24, 2010 11:52 AM CDT up reply actions
7th/8th? Really?
Common FF wisdom is to take your defense late cause the point-difference between first and middle of the pack isn’t so large. You’re calling for the Bears (at top 10) to go in the 7th/8th (between pick 71 and 90). Couple of current Yahoo! FF facts:
NYJ is the defense going first at pick 54.6, on average. That’s middle of the 6th. Minnesota, Green Bay, Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Philadelphia go between 65.7 and 78.7, or between Late 7th/Late 8th.
Chicago is currently drafted (according to Yahoo! leagues) in 29% of leagues at pick 115.6, or late 13th round. That’s a position that should rise, but to say the Defense would be a steal six rounds ahead, that’s not a steal, that’s a big gamble. I’d say you’d be fine taking more depth talent/a third starter in the 7/8 and pick up your defense in the 10/11, and Chicago would be more of a steal there (assuming the whole late 13th avg position rises as the summer goes).
In my early auction draft, Chicago went unnominated.
Can Chicago be drafted in the top ten of defenses? Sure, if you’re willing to take that gamble. But given how the defense landscape is now, you could afford to wait on it for more talent.
by Steven Schweickert on Jul 24, 2010 10:04 PM CDT up reply actions
Math check...
Top parenthesis should read (Between pick 61 and 80), not between 71 and 90.
by Steven Schweickert on Jul 24, 2010 10:05 PM CDT up reply actions
What The Experts Are Saying
Brandon
Funston
Andy
Behrens
Brad
Evans
Scott
Pianowski
Composite
Ranking
New York Jets 1 1 1 1 1
Minnesota Vikings 2 2 2 2 2
Baltimore Ravens 5 4 3 7 3
San Francisco 49ers 4 3 9 5 4
Pittsburgh Steelers 6 6 5 6 5
Green Bay Packers 3 11 4 8 6
Philadelphia Eagles 7 5 11 3 6
Dallas Cowboys 10 7 6 4 8
New Orleans Saints 9 8 10 9 9
Cincinnati Bengals 8 10 8 14 10
San Diego Chargers 11 9 12 12 11
Chicago Bears 13 12 7 13 12
Miami Dolphins 12 15 13 11 13
New York Giants 17 13 15 10 14
New England Patriots 14 18 16 17 15
Tennessee Titans 15 16 20 15 16
Houston Texans 16 14 17 19 16
Indianapolis Colts 19 19 18 16 18
Denver Broncos 20 – 14 18 19
Atlanta Falcons – 20 – 20 20
Seattle Seahawks – 17 – – –
Buffalo Bills 18 – – – –
Detroit Lions – – 19 –
You also have to take into account that Behrens and Evans,
along with several other Yahoo writers, are Chicago fans, and they let that affect their rankings from time to time (particularly Evans). Not that they’re not good at what they do, as I’m also a regular reader of theirs, but it’s something you have to consider when reading their pages.
"The time has come to get deeply into Football. It is the only thing we have left that ain't fixed." - HST
NYJ Drafted First In 2010
I would dare to say that the Jets Defense went unnominated in the 2009 Draft. My gamble in the 2010 Draft would be laying off of them until the 10th,11, or 12th round and seeing somebody else grab them. The addition of Julius Peppers and a healthy Brian Urlacher makes this a better Defense. If the was an auction Draft where the Bears Defense went undrafted I would conclude the people involved in that draft we a bunch of dolts. So where do I project the Bears Defense to be in 2010? It depends on how predictable Lovie Smith becomes and whether or not he relinquishes control over to Marinelli. I still think overall they will be a top 7 in 2010. Just my opinion.
Projecting placement finish is one thing
But draft position, especially when it comes to fantasy, is another. You rarely see a defense taken before the 9th or 10th.
by Steven Schweickert on Jul 26, 2010 9:14 AM CDT up reply actions
IMO Auction is infinitely deeper than a snake.
You’d love it.
by Steven Schweickert on Jul 26, 2010 5:01 PM CDT up reply actions
Further...
Yahoo! won’t let you complete a draft/auction without all your starter slots filled. So at least 12 Defenses must be nominated/drafted, and as many as 15 or 16 usually are. I can’t explain the Bears not going in my league, but for me it’s cause I picked up New Orleans and Pitt already.
by Steven Schweickert on Jul 26, 2010 9:18 AM CDT up reply actions
I Disagree
I have drafted as early as 5th in the Draft for a Defense and have routinely made the playoffs in the majority of my leagues.
It probably wasn't cause of your draft of the defense
You’re probably better at picking up talent later – good skill to have.
I usually hold off till the 10th; I think last year in a snake I drafted my defense in the 11th, and got to the playoffs cause I replaced it with the GB Defense, a defense that went undrafted.
I did somewhere in the neighborhood of eleven other leagues that weren’t my main competitive one (I think I’m only doing one other later on this year) and I missed the playoffs in only two of them. About the earliest I recall drafting a defense was to get the Steelers (preseason #1) defense in the early 8th.
by Steven Schweickert on Jul 26, 2010 5:00 PM CDT up reply actions
That's True
I should probably lay off Defenses until later rounds. I am taking this advice under advisement actually.
I will say this though
It depends a lot on how the draft is going. Normally you won’t see a huge run on defenses or defenses start coming off the board until the late-mid to later rounds. If you start noticing all the “top” (let’s not fool ourselves, preseason ranks don’t automatically translate to end of season finish) defenses going by the wayside, you might start thinking about taking yours with the later of your next two picks.
Going back a ways, remember how I said the point variability in defenses wasn’t make or break between the top and the middle of the pack? According to ESPN (who thankfully kept their standard scoring records from 2009 on the site), the SF Def finished with 167 points. The 16th Def was Pittsburgh with 111. That’s a difference of 56 points; big deal, right? That averages out to only 3.5 per game. Further, let’s assume that you didn’t get unlucky enough to be playing only the 16th-best Def; in a 10 team league maybe you’ve got the 10th best starting D (oversimplification alert!). That’s the Viqueens at 126. That’s a 41 point difference, which amounts to a shade over 2.5 points. The point here isn’t to say “plug in the Rams defense and you’re good to go;” rather, just to show that on a week-by-week basis, you can work with any decent defense and make up the points with the extra talent you picked up in the other rounds.
And yeah, remember that after the draft your teambuilding isn’t done; this year you might be able to get by with picking up whoever’s facing the Rams or Browns that week, and even if you did pick up the preseason number one or a high-rank, if they aren’t getting it done (Tennessee, I’m looking at you…), you can find another on the free agency pool like GB was for me last year.
(Ges, I know you’re a fantasy vet, so this isn’t necessarily meant for you; but rather, for anyone who might overvalue what a Def/ST means in the grand scheme of things. And as always, check your local scoring settings; some might offer outrageous returns for DEF/ST TDs or other such things.)
by Steven Schweickert on Jul 28, 2010 9:30 PM CDT up reply actions
Jay Cutler would be my first choice
Only b/c he’s a quarterback. If you’re playing in a PPR league that also gives points for kick return/punt return yardage and TD’s, Johnny Knox will be a steal in the 5th/6th/7th round range depending on what drafting trends occur. Earl Bennett is decent in PPR leagues as well. If you’re given the opportunity to have an IDP then Lance Briggs or Julius Peppers will be your best bet. Personally I’d go with Briggs given the fact he has averaged 116 tackles, 1.5 sacks, and 1-2 INT’s in his career, minus his rookie season.
WILDCARD BITCHES!!! YEEEEHHHAAAAA!!!!!
Hm. I would say that Hester will probably put up better numbers
BUT, Knox may end up being a better value pick, especially if return yards/td’s are counted. I don’t expect hester to get much if any return work, while Knox is one of the top options. Plus, Knox’s deep speed will benefit from the other receiving options and cutler’s arm
by ChiTownSportsMaster on Jul 21, 2010 9:54 PM CDT up reply actions
Not that it matters
but the ESPN the Magazine fantasy rankings actually have Knox and Aroma ranked higher than Hester.
If Mike Ditka punched you in the face, you'd have to fight off the urge to thank him.
by Ditkavsworld on Jul 22, 2010 5:25 AM CDT up reply actions
Don't blame 'em
All the focus this summer seems to have been on Aroma and Knox, such that Hester falls off the radar.
by Steven Schweickert on Jul 23, 2010 4:53 PM CDT up reply actions
Couple of things that I looked for...
I did an early-summer Yahoo! standard auction draft, so it differs from your normal draft…
I picked up Jay Cutler as my QB for $11. Took a lot of ribbing for it from the other guys, but for $11 bucks in the sixth round of nominations, didn’t have a problem with it. He’ll only be chucking more than last year, so the numbers’ll be there, it’s a matter of his TD/INTs.
Forte went for $16 at 41st Nomination (top 5th Round) but in a snake he’s probably safe at 3rd/4th round and you’ll get good returns off him there I think. RB is still pretty deep this year. Chester Taylor went un-nominated.
Olsen got taken for a dollar at 131st Nomination (top 14th Round).
With WRs, take your pick and pray you’re right. Aroma worked at the end of last year and Knox and Hester got more solid, but don’t overreach for a Bears WR. Aroma was nominated at 115, so about the 10th/11th round. For Bears, I’d go Forte (4th Round), Cutler (5th/6th), the D at the 12th or 13th round (usually don’t draft a D very high), obv Gould at the end, and if you really want a Bears WR, they probably won’t go too fast so Aroma or Knox or Hester should be there at 13/14th round.
*I’m not an expert, this is mostly speculation based on my own auction draft.
by Steven Schweickert on Jul 23, 2010 5:03 PM CDT reply actions
That's me trying to adapt an auction to a snake.
Anyway, I said 5th/6th cause Cutler to me at this moment is a 2nd tier QB – and last year’s INT total will scare people away from him. That’s all the ribbing I took from the guys in my draft. For the record, Rodgers, Brees, P. Manning, Brady, maybe Rivers, for at least the first ten weeks Favre, is what I’d call the first tier. Then second tier fits in Rivers (if you don’t include him in Tier 1), Romo (He’s borderline for me too, I keep hating him and each year he puts up nice numbers), Schaub, E. Manning, Ryan, Flacco, Palmer and Cutler.
Right now on Yahoo! Cutler’s at the 13th-ranked QB spot – and overall, is picked on average at 64.9, which plants him squarely in Round 7.
by Steven Schweickert on Jul 24, 2010 8:49 AM CDT up reply actions
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