Hester/Knox/Aromashodu: How good can they be this season?
by Dominique Blanton on Jul 22, 2010 6:57 PM CDT
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The Wide Receivers last season was surprisingly one of the teams strengths. Hester who lead all receivers in receptions (57) and reception yards (757), was on pace to be the Bears first 1000 yard receiver since Marty Booker in 2002. Earl Bennett went from not making a single catch in 2008, to recording 54 catches in 717 receiving yards. Johnny Knox who was on the verge to being placed on the practice squad in last year training camp, was the biggest surprise last season recording 45 receptions, 527 receiving yards, 5 touchdowns to add making a pro bowl appearance as a return. Devin Aromashodu had one best 4 game stretches towards the end of last season snagging 24 receptions 298 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns. With a year of experience together and a offensive geniues in Mike Martz taking over the offense this up coming season, The Bears receivers should only get better.
In my 3rd of a 5 part series of my weekly match up posts, we will look at the opposing secondaries the Bears 3 set Wide Receivers will have to face each week and what to expect from these match ups.
Week 1 vs Detroit (Chris Houston, Dre Bly, and Amari Spievey)
Might be one of the easiest match ups they will see this season. The Bears receivers speed and athleticism should give the Lions secondary fits. Chris Houston who is fast in his own right is often inconsistent, and the knock on him is instincts. Dre Bly is over the hill and I can a guy like Knox abusing him with his speed and Aromashodu with his athleticism. I expect to see the Lions give Spievey every opportunity to win that 3rd corner back spot and if he does look for Cutler to attack him a lot with both Hester and Aromashodu. There should be no excuse for the Bears not to have a good day through the air on opening day.
Week 2 at Dallas (Terrence Newman, Michael Jenkins, Orlando Scandrick)
If the pass protection holds up in this game, The Bears receivers should have some success against the Cowboys secondary. Yes Terrence Newman is still one of the best corners in the league, but he gets out played by bigger and taller receivers. Expect to see Martz use DA size against Newman and expect Hester to match up more against their nickel back Scandrick who is vulnerable to big plays. The key match up will be Johnny Knox vs Michael Jenkins because there is a good chance whoever is on Newman side will get shutdown. Jenkins is a very good young corner who just like Bowman on our team have to be very careful throwing to his side because he's a ball hawk. The Bears will need Knox and the slot receiver to be huge factors in this game. Also expect Earl Bennett to play a huge role in this game as a fourth receiver.
via 0.tqn.com
Week 3 vs Green Bay (Charles Woodson, Al Harris, Tramon Williams)
The Bears receivers need to be tough and agressive in this game, and not rely on the refs to bail them out like they tried to in week 1 of last season. The Green Bay corners are way overrated and can get victimize, and they know this which results in them holding receivers and getting away with pass interference. Charles Woodson had a good game last season at Chicago, but he did at times get victimize by DA. Al Harris should be playing in this game, but I am not expecting him to be 100%. I expect Hester and Knox to test Harris ACL with their speed down the field. The one main guy I can see on this team giving Tramon Williams fits is Devin Hester. Williams is not good at press coverage and could get burned on go routes and double moves (two things Hester is pretty good at). If the Offensive line plays intelligently and pick up the blitz's, the Bears receivers can make some big plays in this game and make a huge statement and what better place to do that than Monday Night Football.
Week 4 at New York Giants (Aaron Ross, Cory Webster, Bruce Johnson)
The Giants have a group of very underrated corners, which I can see this being a tougher than it actually looks on paper. Tight Ends might also have trouble too with the expected improved safety play with the addition of Antrell Rolle to go along with Kenny Phillips. Perry Fewell should have this defensive secondary fired up for this prime time game. I expect the Receivers to have minimal success because it will be a well balance offensive game.
via static.nfl.com
Week 5 at Carolina (Chris Gamble, Richard Marshall, N/A)
I have no idea who will be the Panthers Nickel, but we should expect that area of the defense to get exposed by both Hester and Aromashodu. I like Chris Gamble and thought he was always one of the most underrated players in the league. Richard Marshall is a very good play making corner back, but with the lost of Peppers you can expect them to get beaten on occasions.
Week 6 vs Seattle (Marcus Trufant, Josh Wilson, Walter Thurmond)
Trufant is on the downside of his career and had one of the worst seasons in his career last season. Josh Wilson is a under size corner who could get abused by Knox size and speed, and Walter Thurmond could have a long day against both Aromashodu and Hester. Earl Bennett could also be a factor in this game against the under achieving Kelly Jennings. This will most likely be a good week for the Bears wide outs as they really didn't have much trouble against this same Seattle secondary under Ron Turner.
Week 7 vs Washington (DeAngelo Hall, Carlos Rodgers, Phillip Buchanon)
On paper it looks like the Bears receivers shouldn't have a tough time against this group of corners, but if Washington pass rush is some what disruptive, they can have a good game. If the Bears offensive line holds up, The receivers should be able to make enough plays to win this game. I expect DA to have the big game of the 3 as he will most likely be up against Hall on the outside and Buchanon in the Slot.
via blogs.ajc.com
Week 9 at Buffalo (Leodis McKelvin, Terrence McGee, Reggie Corner)
McKelvin is expected to be the Bills #1 corner. Devin Hester and DA should be the two receivers expected to go head to head against him. I will have to swing the favor to Hester and DA because McKelvin is still a young corner, and this will be his first full season starting. I expect Hester and DA veteran experience to get the best of McKelvin. On the other side of the field is also another mismatch with Knox going up against McGee. Knox should not only win in the speed department against the vet, but also in the size department (Knox 6'0" McGee 5'9"). Reggie Corner has good ball skill, but might struggle against the different looks Martz will throw at him in the Slot.
Week 10 vs Minnesota (Antoine Winfield, Cedric Griffin, Benny Sapp)
One of the most overrated secondaries in all of football, if the offensive line holds up Cutler should be able to rip apart their secondary just like he did on Monday Night last season. Winfield has lost a step and has trouble with guys that has size or speed or both. Cedric Griffin is a solid corner, but nothing really special. Benny Sapp is an undersize corner who can struggle at times in man to man coverage. The Bears in both contests last season has had success with the Vikings secondary, and in both of those contests the key thing to that success is pass protection. When the pass protection is solid, the Bears have too much speed and athleticism for the Vikings secondary.
Week 11 at Miami (Vontae Davis, Will Allen, Sean Smith)
Very underrated core, with good athleticism and speed to combat the speed the starting 3 WR for the Bears have. Might be one of those games where Bennett gets a lot of looks at that fourth receiver spot, as Martz might look to test Miami depth at corner back.
via media.nj.com
Week 12 vs Philadelphia (Asante Samuel, Ellis Hobbs, Open Competition)
I expect Martz to use 3 and 4 WR sets and test Philly depth that is questionable after Asante Samuel, and Ellis Hobbs.
Week 13 at Detroit (Chris Houston, Dre Bly, Amari Spievey)
Detriot defense should be slightly improved, but I think there secondary will hold them back from taking that next step.
Week 14 vs New England (Leigh Bodden, Darius Butler, Terrence Wheatley)
Leigh Bodden is one of the most complete corners in the NFL, and I expect him to shut down a side of the field. Can't say much of the same for the rest of the field as the rest is inexperience. Expect the X receiver and Y receiver to put up some decent yards against an inexperience secondary.
Week 15 at Minnesota (Antoine Winfield, Cedric Griffin, Benny Sapp)
Plain and Simple, if the Bears can hold up pass protection they can put up huge yards and points on the Vikings secondary. If the defensive line gets their way then expect them to make the Vikings secondary look good.
Week 16 vs New York Jets (Darrelle Revis, Antonio Cromartie, Kyle Wilson)
The toughest test this group of receivers will face this season. It's well documented that Revis is not only the best defensive back in the NFL, but maybe the best Defensive player in NFL period. You also have a ball hawk in Cromartie who can also take away a side of the field. So you figure your slot guy will have a big game right? Not so fast, Kyle Wilson is one of the better talented Corners to come out this year draft. The Jets are deep at the corner back position and I don't expect the Best receivers to have a big game in this one. The tight ends and Running backs might play a bigger role in this one.
via media.scout.com
Week 17 at Green Bay (Charles Woodson, Al Harris, Tramon Williams)
Green Bay Corners seem to play better at home, but I expect Martz to figure out Capers blitz schemes and find the weaknesses in their secondary (there's a lot of them).
Links to past match up posts
Next Match Up Post: Tommie Harris and Julius Peppers
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Nice post , Rec'd !!!!!
" Everyone has a plan 'till they get punched in the mouth. " ~
Mike Tyson
by MidWayMonster54 on Jul 22, 2010 8:26 PM CDT reply actions
Great post!
The Packers corners aren’t wayyyyy overrated…..Sure, their not the Jets, but they are still really good…….
Is it me,or do the Packers really suck???
by I love football! on Jul 22, 2010 10:13 PM CDT reply actions
As much as I hate to say it
Havin a best friend that’s a Pack fan, I’d take GB’s corners over NYJ’s. I agree Revis is the best, but Cromartie has had ONE great season and the rest are average at best. Kyle Wilson is a rookie, as much as I like him. Woodson and Harris are proven vets who can get their job done. T. Williams has also proven himself. All the love for Cromartie at GGN is unwarranted IMO.
WILDCARD BITCHES!!! YEEEEHHHAAAAA!!!!!
Maybe not way overrated, but they can be victimize if the receivers are being aggressive.
Green Bay corners get away with a lot of PI calls which gets in the receivers heads, thus making the QB vulnerable to get picked off. Our Receivers have to be more aggressive with them and make them pay for that crap.
by Dominique Blanton on Jul 23, 2010 11:44 AM CDT up reply actions
They got torn up by the Cardinals in the playoffs.
Lifelong Arizona Cardinals/Chicago Bears fan [I have always lived in Arizona, dad is from Chicago].
I can't stand fair-weather/bandwagon fans, stick with your team, throughout the good and the bad. And don't switch to whichever team wins the Super Bowl each year.
They were also getting lit up by Breston and Doucett
by Dominique Blanton on Aug 3, 2010 9:34 PM CDT up reply actions
Yes they did
But larry is still a beast.
"Boozer's dumbass dunked, so i dunked on his dumbass"- Joakim Noah
Love your posts
Did you guys hear about the new Lebron James Iphone?
You have to keep it on vibrate because it has no rings.
Nice write-up Nique...
I think the numbers will be huge this season for all three. The offense will be tested early on at Dallas and GB, but after that, there is a stretch of below average teams. If the WRs are getting to their spots and playing aggressive, they could all be in for career years. Early on, I see DA and Knox leading the way. They have the best skills at gaining separation and getting open deep which will be key early in the season when I see opposing defenses going after the QB and blitzing to test Cutler and the o-line. As the offense improves over the season, defenses will adjust by playing more zone and 2-deep safety which will open up the underneath for guys like Hester, Bennett, and Olsen. Further, I see Forte/Taylor having early success catching passes as the outlet early on, but settling into more traditional rushing numbers later on in the season as the games get tighter and the defenses they face are better. I am excited to see this offense in 2010, I expect great things ahead for them.
IT'S NOT TOO LATE TO FIRE LOVIE!
great point
If the WRs are getting to their spots and playing aggressive, they could all be in for career years.
The offense always has the advantage over the defense. It’s a X’s and O’s fact… Some coaches are better at others in scheming to their advantage, but the offense always has the edge.
The Martz O is all about timing, and the receivers hitting their spots. If the wide outs run crisp routes and Cutler is smart with the football, it will be a thing of beauty.
In the 8th grade Mike Ditka won his school's Science Fair with a model of a working volcano. There were 17 other working volcano's made that day, but only one named Mount Ditka.
by Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. on Jul 23, 2010 9:22 AM CDT up reply actions
That was my 1st thought!
In the 8th grade Mike Ditka won his school's Science Fair with a model of a working volcano. There were 17 other working volcano's made that day, but only one named Mount Ditka.
by Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. on Jul 23, 2010 10:26 AM CDT up reply actions
I agree LostInSTL
Except I see Hester also having success and actually having the most success because he will be moved around the line of scrimmage and getting favorable match ups. I agree that defenses will be blitz early on especially in that Green Bay game. Capers loves to blitz his corners, but if you are able to pick it up like Arizona did in the playoffs, you have a chance at making big plays.
by Dominique Blanton on Jul 23, 2010 11:34 AM CDT up reply actions
Nice
I am really liking the weekly breakdowns, good work again.
In my 3rd of a 5 part series of my weekly match up posts
Suggestion: You should put links in the top story to your other breakdowns
Suggestion:
lol
If I did what I love for a living, what would I do in my free time?
Writer at windycitygridiron.com {-/-} http://www.twitter.com/kdoggers
Suggestion:
Lose the Affleck pic.
by PolishSausage.Ditka.Bears. on Jul 26, 2010 11:12 PM CDT up reply actions
Earl Bennett is going to have something to say about this
I have said many times i think he is primed for a break out season. His hands are solid, he is not afraid to take a hit while going for the ball over the middle, he has really deceptive speed just look at his punt return for a td against the ravens and he really came on at the end of last year.
I defnitly think he is the most polished reciever on the roster and i predict him to be in the
70-80 catch area 1000-1200 yard area and about 5 tds
by Bear Lovin 21 on Jul 23, 2010 10:56 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
He still has a chance to be the 3rd receiver
I think Martz favors speed receivers on the outside in his possession receivers in the slot. I still think as the 4th receiver he will see his fair share of balls thrown his way. He’s most likely going to be the Ricky Prohel of the receiver corps.
by Dominique Blanton on Jul 23, 2010 11:54 AM CDT up reply actions
I agree......
The Ricky Proehl comment is a perfect analogy.
in•san•i•ty \in-ˈsa-nə-tē\ noun
1 : The practice of repeating the same action while expecting different results.
by Timothy Hockemeyer on Jul 23, 2010 12:43 PM CDT up reply actions
Considering who our 4th WR is likely to be,
I’d almost rather see Ricky Proehl be our Ricky Proehl.
"The time has come to get deeply into Football. It is the only thing we have left that ain't fixed." - HST
Bennett showed a lot of promise last year
I said earlier here I though Bennett would lead the team in catches, and I still think he will.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Jul 26, 2010 8:59 AM CDT up reply actions
i agree i think olsen leads in td catchs
Yards i think hester finally gets to 1000
by Bear Lovin 21 on Jul 27, 2010 7:48 PM CDT up reply actions
Self Fail.
Everyone’s been carrying on so much about DA’s HOF potential that I forgot about Bennett.
"The time has come to get deeply into Football. It is the only thing we have left that ain't fixed." - HST
While I hope for great things from DA
I expect Bennett to be more useful.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Jul 29, 2010 8:42 AM CDT up reply actions
It would be nice, but I think DA is being over-sold.
I think Bennett could end up being solid in this system, and if Knox’s routes improve, I think he could be a serious threat.
"The time has come to get deeply into Football. It is the only thing we have left that ain't fixed." - HST
This post is great becuase it makes you realize
the poetential for any one of the multiple threats we have to exploit a weakness at anytime on any given play. Like Nique said say the receivers get shut down, well what are the odds that Olsen and the TE’s as well as Forte and Taylor are completly shut down as well. Almost seems to me that without having any true number one makes it that much more difficult for the D to Key on one or two players and thus shut down the offense. I’m excited about the beginning of camp so these guys can put on pads and we can get an idea of what we really have.
If Mike Ditka punched you in the face, you'd have to fight off the urge to thank him.
That's it exactly.
What appears to be a disadvantage is actually a strength. The roster diversity creates so many possibilities. I’m practically giddy.
"More cowbell" - Bruce Dickinson
"More bell cow" - Lovie Smith
Funny that the MSM hasn't pick up on that logic. Oh and did you know
Mark Schlereith is a douche.
If Mike Ditka punched you in the face, you'd have to fight off the urge to thank him.
by Ditkavsworld on Jul 23, 2010 2:35 PM CDT up reply actions
They would only pick up on that logic.......
If the Bears moved to the East Coast. Or if Mark Schlereth wasn’t a douche. Since neither of those things are possible, they will never pick up on it.
in•san•i•ty \in-ˈsa-nə-tē\ noun
1 : The practice of repeating the same action while expecting different results.
by Timothy Hockemeyer on Jul 24, 2010 11:40 AM CDT up reply actions
His favorite drink...
is vinegar and water.
"More cowbell" - Bruce Dickinson
"More bell cow" - Lovie Smith
by Pete Dixon on Jul 26, 2010 1:11 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Yep, that's why I shake my head at these Analyst on TV like Tim Hasselback and Jamie Dukes
when they suggest that the Bears should go out there and get T.O. New Orleans just proved last season that if you have a really good offensive scheme, you can have success without a #1 receiver (Yes, I don’t consider Colston an elite #1 receiver). If you have equally good receivers that can step up and make plays, it makes it harder for defensive coordinators to key in on just one guy.
by Dominique Blanton on Jul 23, 2010 4:08 PM CDT up reply actions
I think you hit the nail on the head
Anytime a national analyst says the Bears are weak at receiver or Hub Arkush gets on the air and says that Devin Hester just isn’t a NFL receiver and that the Bears don’t have any, throw the NO Saints WR core in their face and that should end the argument immediately.
i love arkush but he irks me everytime he says that the bears wr's are bad
Knowing they are not that experience, but yet still had a solid year. He has a serious dislike for Hester because he never gives the guy any credit.
The saints won the Super Bowl with Devery Henderson, Robert Mechaem, and Lance Moore. A equally or less talented group then the Bears. I really think with good coaching we are alright at WR.
by Dominique Blanton on Jul 24, 2010 7:40 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Not too tough of a lineup
That list of DEs that C. Williams is gonna have to face this year (in an earlier post) was way more intimidating than the list of CBs we’re going up against.
Packers, Jets, Eagles, and Dallas all look like tough match-ups, but otherwise it’s not too intimidating of a list.
Nice post butt,
this “I expect Martz” stuff is a little ridiculous. None of our receivers have ever shown an ability to be better the the guy covering them on a consistent basis. I expect Martz not to be able to change that
Our offense was not good last year. I have more confidence Martz then any Bears OC i can remember…. BUTT the pass catchers on this team are not very good. We win game #1 of the season last year if Dez Clark catches an early easy touchdown pass.
DA had a few good games, Knox returned a couple of kicks and Khalil Bell had one good run and people want to anoint them as long term pieces with possible pro bowl potential down the road (as WR or HB respectively for those who would pounce and say Knox made the pro bowl, because u are soo smart).
As of now our offense has 3 good players and little else. Cutler, Hester and Forte. Not getting a veteran WR was a big mistake after the shit show at the position last year.
Olsen continues to be a disappointment. Jay’s obvious lack of confidence in his other options is evidenced by the frequency with which Jay threw to Olsen even though everyone knew he was going to and they had little success doing and his “demeanor”. Never cared about the demeanor because his frustrations are not unfounded. See what I did there real fast though? I said are not unfounded, not “were”.
Hester is the only WR I think even capable of performing at the high level we need our receivers to. All in all our WR corps is a far cry from the elite corps and until they prove otherwise in the bottom 1/3 of the league.
The more people on here already act as if this offense is functioning on an elite level the more nervous I become. Last year everybody incorrectly assumed the 1st legitimate QB in recent history would mean a legitimate offense. Talking about midseason performance with glowing yet unfounded expectations because Martz is now on the scene is a distraction from 3 bad seasons in a row.
Butt yeah, go bears!
Wow......
Funny. Knox did more than anyone expected. And Bennett played the role of possession receiver pretty well. So I wouldn’t say that there’s no reason for optimism or that “none of our receivers have ever shown an ability to be better than the guy covering them on a consistent basis”……..unless of course I was looking for an argument.
Now, I kinda agree with you on Bell and Aromashodu. ‘Shodu played well when given an opportunity, but the sample size was definitely not enough to claim him having Pro Bowl Potential. But then it wasn’t enough to claim anything negative either. It was what it was. A look at ’Shodu’s potential that was definitely positive. Bell, I wade into the same waters as you on. He didn’t look special aside from the one rush, and I’m not sure what the hub-bub is all about. He definitely doesn’t make the roster now that Unga has signed, IMHO.
Knox, though, put up very good numbers as a rookie, and did give a large enough sample to judge. He certainly needs to work on routes and on what do do when the QB is in trouble. But he also showed a consistent ability to get open and to beat corners. He was roundly considered to be one of the best, and most surprising rookies last season. So why are you so down? Rookies who put up good seasons aren’t guarantees, but they definitely give you something to look forward to. Which brings up Bennett, who effectively was a rookie last season, as well. And he was much more polished than I think anyone expected him to be. He DID prove a willingness to be that middle receiver who will retain possession while being pummeled.
I find it funny that you list Forte as a good player, when he was ranked last in the league both seasons as a rusher, and sits firmly at the bottom of the league, both seasons in yards after contact per carry. Am I saying Forte sucks? Nope. But he has proven nothing more, as a rusher, than that he can carry the ball a lot. And even then, he couldn’t hold up to that punishment, either (not that I fault him for that) so he has to prove that he can actually avoid tackles and/or move a pile before I call him a good runner. Period. Spin it however you like, but I find it hugely hypocritical that you call Forte one of “3 good players” on the offense when the guy has proven nothing as a rusher other than that, in some peoples eyes, quantity equals quality.
So the unproven Forte is a good player, but Bennett and Knox haven’t proven anything? And, apparently neither has Chris Williams, as you didn’t include him, either. Well, I would forward the argument that Knox and Bennett have laid a more promising foundation than Forte. And I’d be willing to bet that if Forte doesn’t play a lot better this year than he has the previous two, he will find himself watching from the bench as Taylor carries. Note that I am in no way implying that Forte cannot improve the rushing aspect of his game. It’s actually to opposite, in my opinion. For the first time, Forte has a legitimate threat in the #2 spot. Taylor will push Forte. And as far as I’m concerned, Forte seems to have the right attitude to make that next step. But if he doesn’t, Taylor will be waiting.
Olsen has been hashed and rehashed. No point in beating a dead horse.
But the most interesting thing you said is the last paragraph………which I agree with 100%. Period. Sure, it’s fun to pretend. But reality is that we are only making educated guesses, here. And poorly educated, given the level of newness to this offense, at that. I’m definitely optimistic. But I also am really nervous, as I can see the possibility of this system going south in a hurry if the Chemistry between Cutler and Martz isn’t there, if the offensive line under-performs, if the running game takes a nose dive (remember that the reason the “greatest Show on Turf” worked so well was the threat that Marshall Faulk posed. Does Forte pose anywhere near that kind of threat? Not with per carry numbers like he’s posted the last two year. Let’s hope that Forte takes the next step) or if the defense does as poor a job as it did last season of stopping opposing teams from scoring, especially in the Red Zone where the Bears ranked 31st in the league in TD% allowed.
I think there’s room for optimism, but I also can see that there is a very real chance that we all end up calling for Smith’s head by mid-season……..and getting it.
in•san•i•ty \in-ˈsa-nə-tē\ noun
1 : The practice of repeating the same action while expecting different results.
by Timothy Hockemeyer on Jul 25, 2010 3:20 PM CDT up reply actions
Clarification.....
On Forte……
I got a bit sidetracked, but my point was that, Forte proved in his first season that if even the league lowest rated rusher is given the ball enough times, he will look decent. Other than that, he proved nothing more, as a runner, than Knox or Bennett proved as WRs. He did though, prove to be a formidable blocker and receiver out of the backfield.
I actually have a lot of faith that, if he can improve the rushing aspect of his game, Forte can be the same kind of threat that Faulk was. Not to the same level, mind you. But expecting that would be no different than expecting him to be Payton. Faulk was a one of a kind. But Forte does have the potential to be a more than adequate substitute. We’ll have to wait and see.
in•san•i•ty \in-ˈsa-nə-tē\ noun
1 : The practice of repeating the same action while expecting different results.
by Timothy Hockemeyer on Jul 25, 2010 3:30 PM CDT up reply actions
I see what you are saying, butt
and i don’t mean this to be critical, but you are failing to see/grasp a certain aspect of/ awareness to the situation. When a team is bad, which we have been, the passing numbers and stats are inflated. End of game, losing, the game dictates you pass the ball as it is a quicker way to put up more points. Bad teams pass the ball more and rush the ball less. Sure dive into your stats to try to prove that you are so smart and i am so dumb, but the premise is, it is hard to put up impressive rushing stats on a bad team, while being on a bad team actually inflates a WRs statistics and therefore his value beyond its actual worth.
I was initially skeptical when we drafted Forte. I have been impressed with Forte since the first time I saw him on the field. I think he has tremendous vision and agility in the hole to compliment athletic talent and strength, with hand to boot. Last season his talent was still apparent while struggling through the injury.
No attempt....
To make you seem dumb, my friend. A difference in opinion, especially about something as speculative and subjective as the greatness, or lack there-of, of a player is definitely not a indication of intelligence. Just a different view point.
But I’d like to pose this to you……
You are absolutely correct in the inflation of passing stats in a poor offense. Of course, that only can occur if the passing attack actually works, at least to some extent. It was poor scheming and decision making, IMO, that led to the poor offense. It led to a lot of the interceptions, the predicability of the ground game, and the overall fall of the offense, again IMO, rests in the lap of Ron Turner.
But………to be fair, those passing stats occured while teams were expecting the pass, making it more difficult for the young receivers to break open. Yet they did, and that speak well for the young receiving corps. Conversely, Forte had issues rushing when teams often expected the pass. I don’t blame the line on Forte. He couldn’t control how soon he was getting hit, or the lack of openings. But his yards after contact per carry were all on him. I’d be more willing to give him a pass if it were just last season, but he lived in the basement on that stat his rookie year. Funny thing about it is that if you look at the list, all the RBs that everyone consider the best in the league are at the top of the Yards after contact per carry list. And those that are considered replaceable at best are all at the bottom.
A good example is Adrien Peterson. Last year saw almost every one of his stats fall. Why? The Vikings had one of the worst runblocking lines in the league (far worse than ours. Fewer holes lead to fewer opportunities. But his yards after contact per carry was among the best in the league, where it always is.
When the Bears drafted Forte, I was actually pretty juiced. I liked the guy and felt that he would be a great back for us. I still think he can be. He just needs to improve on the rushing aspect of the job. If he cannot, then put a few pounds on him and move him to fullback, where he’d already be Pro Bowl material. His blocking and his receiving ability leave absolutely nothing to be desired. He’s top notch. If he can even move into the middle of the pack as a rusher, he becomes a more than serviceable replacement for Marshall Faulk in this kind of offense. The Bears need teams to fear the rush if they pay to much attention to the pass for this scheme to work. Right now, I don’t think that is the case.
I generally hate to look at fantasy football in terms of reality, but in the case of RBs, it lets you know what the general feeling of what the effectiveness of a back will be. In this case, Forte is averaging being the 20th RB taken in the draft. Last year he was 4th. Now some of that is due to the sudden committee situation he might find himself in, but then, Taylor has been the second back in a committee before, and not affected the draft status of his starter. Most backs in the league are now in committee positions. Hell, Cedric Benson is being drafted higher, and he has Larry Johnson nipping at his heels and a possible NFL suspension looming, though it’s not as likely as some think.
I honestly think Forte will have a shorter leash with Taylor behind him than he had in the past, but I also think that he’s a smart kid, and that exact idea will push him to be better than he has been before. At least I hope so. Because for all of the bluster about the passing game, the season may actually ride (offensively) on how Matt Forte performs.
in•san•i•ty \in-ˈsa-nə-tē\ noun
1 : The practice of repeating the same action while expecting different results.
by Timothy Hockemeyer on Jul 25, 2010 6:17 PM CDT up reply actions
I see how you see it, but you use false logic
that sounds critical but it is basically an early misconception sends the whole premise askew.
Ffor example you mention how defenses would know that a bad team down by 7 is going to pass, as if to negate my point that bad receivers can have inflated stats on bad teams. While there is some truth to what you say, it is misleading as a comparison because there are sometimes as many as 4 WRs when we pass, but when Forte runs the ball, it is just him. This point is important because it is easier to stop a running back then to stop 4 receivers on any given play.
Regarding Forte being in the bottom of the league in stats: sorry but I feel like much of that is wasted on me. I do not care about statistics. This is just another example of why as I trust my eyes much more then a perspective gained from out of context numerical statistics. I wanted to hate Forte, so if he wasn’t good i wouldn’t. I suppose you can take that or leave it, but he has been one of the few bright spots on this team for the last couple of years. However a formation with Hester as the HB and Forte as the FB would have my full support.
To be fair.....
the premise is no more flawed than yours. A team down by 7 is expected to pass, so their concentration is to stop the WRs, not the RB. So, being that the Bears spent much of their season down and chasing, the focus was not on the RB. So stopping the play that you expect less isn’t as easy as you make it sound. Additionally, when a WR is thrown to, It’s just him v one or two coverage backs. When the RB runs, he has a whole line, plus TEs and or WRs throwing blocks to help open a lane. Now, I understand the merits of your argument, but calling mine flawed just because you don’t agree is akin to putting your fingers in your ears and singing “Bear Down” just to avoid the conversation. A good argument can be made for either side and solid, well thought out opinions can only be formed only with all the information.
And pooh-poohing stats may be fine for you, but why isn’t Billy Simms considered one of the best backs in history? If you saw him in motion, you’d be hard pressed not to say he was. Yet he never comes up in conversation. Same for Sterling Sharp and the WR position. But most people have the understanding that a productive player will post the numbers and do so over a significant period. They didn’t post the numbers and have longevity. If the stats don’t indicate production, then can you please point me to the Hall of Famers with sub-par statistics, but that were so good they made it anyways, specifically the running backs? They don’t seem to exist. Forte hasn’t posted the numbers. When’s the last time you heard someone say “Wow, that RBs great because he carried 350 times. Sure, he posted less than 4 yards per carry over his career, but boy he sure did carry the rock a bunch of times!”? The “the stats don’t mean anything argument” goes against the idea that production is important to being a good player.
If you look at Forte’s normal line for 2008, he looks like a decent back. But he’s a quantity runner, not a quality runner. And stats like yards after contact tell a lot more about a back than total yards. He isn’t making people miss, he isn’t dragging people, and he isn’t eluding them. It’s that simple. I won’t post video on this, because it’s piling on (and besides, I can make Adrian Peterson look bad if I post the right videos. I’m not Roy, I don’t play that game). But I have seen every Bears game, every season for the last 30+ years. I’m sure you’ve probably watched in some similar fashion. Forte isn’t the worst back I’ve seen. But as far as starters go in Chicago, he leaves a lot to be desired when running the ball. Stats definitely aren’t the end all be all of a player, but they are a good indicator and if a RB is producing, then the stats will be there.
I know you seem to believe that Forte is impressive as a runner in some way because of what you’ve watched. But I’ve watched the same games, and I haven’t seen a lot out of him that makes me want to get out of my seat. Of course, there are exceptional plays here and there. but then, the best rush in the last 5 years was by a kid none of us knew and we both seem to agree is receiving to much credit based on one play. Well, from what I’ve watched, Forte is receiving to much credit for receiving a large quantity of carries.
in•san•i•ty \in-ˈsa-nə-tē\ noun
1 : The practice of repeating the same action while expecting different results.
by Timothy Hockemeyer on Jul 25, 2010 9:29 PM CDT up reply actions
u are taking this personally
point is u are comparing 1 to 4 as if it is the same number. Sure there are different facots that can bolster or weaken a perspective, but you are really trying to chase your own tail in this logic.
I’m pretty sure u agree that teams pass the ball more at the end of games when losing. At this point you make the argument that because the defense knows the offense will pass passing stats are not inflated. Sorry but you are so wrong minded… sure the fact that the d knows a pass is coming makes the passing play more difficult, but what it doesn’tdo is turn the passing play into a running play. Whether the D is prepared or not, they are passing it. That’s the point. The odds of a WR making a catch decrease when the D is prepared. But they are still much better then the odds of a RB running the ball on a passing play.
Sorry, not trying to be a jerk or sound absolutist, but I’m not lying to you or embellishing to prove a point. It simply is, regardless of whether or not you see it differently.
I'm not taking this personally at all........
It seems like you might be though. I’ve consistently said that there are two points of view, and explained mine. That’s not taking it personally, that is explaining my viewpoint. You claim that Rushing is an individual effort involving one guy and receiving is a more group effort. I showed how receivers have no blockers and are truer to the one on one that rushers are (at least until they get into the open field). You responded by saying that I’m taking this to personally. I don’t get that. I think you are making a pretty good case for your argument, and I am making a good case for mine. Seems like a pretty good (and respectful) conversation to me that i am rather enjoying. I like this kind of civil debate.
Maybe you are referring to the exchange between ’Red and I below? That goes way past this thread, my friend, and has little to nothing to do with our conversation.
I think we’ve both hashed out our arguments pretty clearly. I disagree with you. You disagree with me. That’s cool. We all see things from a different perspective, and maybe if the defensive coaches had a few more conversations like this one, Our Beloved Bears wouldn’t be in the position we find them in. :)
in•san•i•ty \in-ˈsa-nə-tē\ noun
1 : The practice of repeating the same action while expecting different results.
by Timothy Hockemeyer on Jul 26, 2010 5:36 PM CDT up reply actions
makes j/o motion with hand.
Not all perspectives are created equally. I say teams pass more when losing at the end of games. As a result WR’s stats go up . You somehow try to refute this common knowledge with points which you found persuasive enough to skew your opinion, but that doesn’t make your points or opinion valid. While this convo may be decent enough, I simply don’t have the energy to belabor simple points. Simple points which u have misunderstood and then extrapolated from. I can’t justify a belaboring conversation about window frames when the entire home’s foundation is shaky.
While I appreciate the tone of your post, I seriously hope nobody at Halas Hall tries to emulate this conversation or your logic.
Alright, now who'd acting funny?
Funny enough, you act as though your opinion is fact. Sure, WR’s stats go up in games that they are behind in. But you act as though because the team is passing mored, it somehow makes it easier, at that point, to make those receptions. That’s the tidbit that you chose to ignore to make your point valid, as a whole. Your argument is fundamentally flawed. Your condescension is evidence in your lack of support for your issue.
Now, where are those unproductive greats?…………(Crickets chirping)…………..
in•san•i•ty \in-ˈsa-nə-tē\ noun
1 : The practice of repeating the same action while expecting different results.
by Timothy Hockemeyer on Jul 26, 2010 6:31 PM CDT up reply actions
there is a lot you aren't getting
in person maybe i’d be more persuasive butt,
it is invariably more likely that a WR will catch a pass on a pass play then on a run play. While it may be more difficult to catch passes when the D knows a pass play is coming, it is still a pass catching opportunity which they otherwise would not have had, tough d or not.
Therefore this “debate” was over before it started. In order for you to have had a leg to stand on the following premise would have had to be true, If a defense knows a pass play is coming, then the wrs on the offense will be unable to catch the ball. But that is false, fellatious.
On the other hand the statement that WRs are more likely to catch the ball on a pass play instead of a running play is logically very strong. In fact, it is a true statement.
Like I said below the question about unproductive greats is stupid and will not be addressed any more then it just was.
Maybe you see it now maybe you don’t. can’t say i didn’t try.
So your argument is.......
that because the receivers got more opportunities they looked better? Really? because Forte has had an above average amount of rushing attempts.
You past a straw man in your position that in order for my argument to have a leg to stand on…..
<following premise would have had to be true, If a defense knows a pass play is coming, then the wrs on the offense will be unable to catch the ball. But that is false, fellatious./blockquote>
Actually, the only thing that needs to be true is that if the defense knows a pass is coming, it is more difficult to successfully execute the passing game. That is, of course, true. The only way I would need to prove the straw man argument above was if the receivers didn’t perform when those conditions arose, which would then have supported my argument anyways. In fact, the only logical way that the argument works in your favor is if this statement is true…….
If a defense knows a pass play is coming, then the WRs on the offense will always be able to catch the ball.
The fact that a receiver has more opportunities to catch the ball doesn’t make him a better receiver, and that will still show up in his stats. That, as you stated incorrectly before, is first semester logic. So, the fact that a WR is more likely to catch a pass on a passing play is another straw man that has nothing to do with whether or not the WRs performed well or not.
As to the question about unproductive greats, it’s only stupid in your eyes because you cannot answer the bell. If the stats aren’t a indicator of production and performance, then there surely must be examples, correct? I’m not saying that you cannot tell a great player by watching them. But i am saying that, funny enough, all the great, or even good, players have that performance show up in the stats.
But, lets get to the point. The WRs performance has little to do with Forte’s lack of the same in the running game. It’s a Red Herring. Plain and simple. You said above that not all perspectives are made equal. I agree. But you still didn’t give any indication of why your personal observation (which is completely unsupportable beyond the “because I said so” argument) is so much more perception than my personal observations, which are supportable with the statistics.
Now, As far as hearsay or inconclusive stats go, Football Outsiders has in the past been a partner of FoxSports, and has seen it’s material used by ESPN, Yahoo, FoxSports, AOLSports and others. In other words, they are considered pretty darned credible. FroFootballFocus is another site that is generally consider to be credible, and is sited pretty often on this and many other blogs (just google the name. It’s insane how often you will see it pop up just on the SBNation sites). No statistical analysis is perfect, and it’s even less perfect at predicting the future. But it’s a hell of a lot better indicator than the ol’ “Because I saw it!” argument.
You have claimed to be using a logical argument here.
And I will continue to wait your list of statistically unproductive greats, as they must exist since the statistics are no measure of greatness.
in•san•i•ty \in-ˈsa-nə-tē\ noun
1 : The practice of repeating the same action while expecting different results.
by Timothy Hockemeyer on Jul 26, 2010 7:58 PM CDT up reply actions
WOW.........block quote fail :)
in•san•i•ty \in-ˈsa-nə-tē\ noun
1 : The practice of repeating the same action while expecting different results.
by Timothy Hockemeyer on Jul 26, 2010 7:59 PM CDT up reply actions
i question whether or not u even deserve such an honor....
by No It All on Jul 26, 2010 8:39 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I'll accept those as your......
admission that you really have no argument. Thank you.
in•san•i•ty \in-ˈsa-nə-tē\ noun
1 : The practice of repeating the same action while expecting different results.
by Timothy Hockemeyer on Jul 26, 2010 9:38 PM CDT up reply actions
Ummm, not sure this is the word that you were looking for...
fellatious
unless you guys are discussing something much different than I thought.
"The time has come to get deeply into Football. It is the only thing we have left that ain't fixed." - HST
Nope
They aren’t! Fellatious was intentional. I’d hand you the link but I’m feeling ambidextrous so to speak.
If you can't laugh at yourself you must not be very funny.
I remain a pessimistically hopeful Bears fan.
Didn't realize you'd already pointed that out.
Hadn’t made it quite that far down because my eyes started to glaze over.
"The time has come to get deeply into Football. It is the only thing we have left that ain't fixed." - HST
A lot of people forget about Forte's below average output when running the ball
If he averages under 4.0 ypc again this year, I think we may look to draft an RB with one of our high picks next year…
Next year's draft
Looks like it’s going to be stacked at the skilled positions. I’m definitely not hoping for a high pick, but if we fail this season we could definitely get a stud at WR or RB.
WILDCARD BITCHES!!! YEEEEHHHAAAAA!!!!!
What I meant by "high picks" was
One of our top 3 picks – but not necessarily ordered high, though. That’s assuming that Angelo doesn’t trade our # 1 or # 2 for a DE…
That's assuming.....
that Angelo is still here, which I think is debatable if the season doesn’t go as we all hope it will…….
in•san•i•ty \in-ˈsa-nə-tē\ noun
1 : The practice of repeating the same action while expecting different results.
by Timothy Hockemeyer on Jul 26, 2010 3:38 PM CDT up reply actions
We probably need a DT or CB more than a WR next year.
Tommie at this point in his career is probably more of a rotation guy and Tillman is always going down with some injury every year and might be better fit for the slot if we draft a shutdown corner.
by Dominique Blanton on Jul 26, 2010 7:43 PM CDT up reply actions
No chance that this is true
Patriots won a superbowl with nothing at wr. Our glaring weakness is the secondary, Dline, and Oline. WR is way down on the list. They don’t have to be all stars just be in the right spot at the right time and hold on to the ball. Wr are open on every play, just have to pick the right one to throw to.
"He is remarkably bright", a "terrific talent", the sky is the limit for Cutler"
-Mike Martz-
Plus the WR crop next year will be deep
Unless there is a Dez Bryant type WR in next year draft, I rather get a shutdown corner or a disruptive 3 technique tackle.
by Dominique Blanton on Jul 27, 2010 6:53 PM CDT up reply actions
By Dez Bryant you mean?
Including underclassmen you’ll have A.J. Green(6-4; 190), Julio Jones(6-4; 210), Jonathan Baldwin(6-5; 225), Michael Floyd(6-3; 220), Devier Posey(6-3; 205), Austin Pettis(6-3;201), and Terrance Toliver(6-5; 206). All but Pettis are underclassmen so it’s a question who would come out. As you can see all are big receivers and each IMO has a legitimate shot at being a number 1 receiver in the league.
WILDCARD BITCHES!!! YEEEEHHHAAAAA!!!!!
Right.....
And it’s not just the low yards per carry, but low yards after contact as well.
in•san•i•ty \in-ˈsa-nə-tē\ noun
1 : The practice of repeating the same action while expecting different results.
by Timothy Hockemeyer on Jul 26, 2010 10:12 AM CDT up reply actions
I await your posts regarding Forte after this season is over
I expect them to be much more interesting reading than what you have been sharing with the board so far this year.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Jul 26, 2010 9:02 AM CDT up reply actions
Nice.....
So, since you disagree with me (and Football Outsiders and PFF, and….well, even the Fantasy Football guys now that they’ve cleared off the bandwagon) you have to play the downplaying my post game? Well, in my book, that pretty much means that you didn’t have anything useful or intelligible to say. Actually, all your posts seem to be reactionary. Why is that?
As to Forte, I hope your right. as I’ve said many times before, I think he’s definitely capable of improvement. But to look at what he’s done while rushing so far and not have questions about it seem a bit like drinking the kool-aid to me.
But if he posts the same type of quanitity over quality again this season, I’ll be waiting for the posts from you on Forte…….though I doubt I’ll see them.
in•san•i•ty \in-ˈsa-nə-tē\ noun
1 : The practice of repeating the same action while expecting different results.
by Timothy Hockemeyer on Jul 26, 2010 3:08 PM CDT up reply actions
my problem with your being so down on Forte's running skill
is how you seem so quick to blame it all on Forte conveniently forgetting Turner’s miserable play calling and the poor O-line.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Jul 27, 2010 8:28 AM CDT up reply actions
Accept......
I have never claimed any absolute. I have placed more of the blame on the failures of Ron Turner for all of the Bears offensive woes than on anyone else, and I have placed plenty of blame on the Truly Offensive Line, as well. It is you who has stuck you head in the sand and dealt in absolutes by absolving Forte of any responsibility.
Look, I’ll state my position again for clarification.
The Bears running game has sucked.
Ron Turner is a douche. I’ve called for his head since the 2006 season, where I thought his game plan and play calling had as much or more to do with the fall of Rex Grossman than any other factor (though Rex also didn’t do the offense any favors with erratic play and poor decision making).
I’ve called the offensive line both the Truly Offensive Line and The Matadors of the Midway. Poor player utilization, poor play calling and poor play have decimated our line over the last 3 years.
Matt Forte has been a below average rusher. Period. And not just last season, when I could have given him a pass because of injury, but in his rookie season as well. He is a fantastic blocker, and he has already broken Walter Payton’s season marks for receiving, which speaks volumes about the kids ability as a receiver out of the backfield. I like his attitude, and have read nothing but good things about his work ethic. I don’t think he is incapable of improving, and if I had to bet, I’d place my wager on Forte getting better rushing. But if he doesn’t improve, changes will need to be made. Sure, he’s had some good plays that made him look great. But so has Kahlil Bell. He’s also had a lot of bad plays. And his statistics back that up. He hasn’t yet crossed the 4.0 yards a carry mark, which in and of itself aren’t a good indicator of his ability, since 2 yards/carry would be awesome if he was getting first contact 3 yards behind the line. But his yards after contact per carry numbers are well below the league average and near the bottom, which indicate he’s doing a sub-par job of shedding tacklers and avoiding hits. And he’s been bottom dwelling both seasons, not just in his injury laden sophomore slump. All of the running games woes do not rest on Forte’s shoulders. But he isn’t absolved of responsibility, either.
You can keep trying to mis-characterize my position all you want, but it won’t change the facts. I just want the team to improve, and if Forte is the man who improves, then great. If the Bears have to go another direction, well, that’s OK too. But I don’t like mediocrity in a Chicago rusher. I’m not expecting Payton, but is Neal Anderson to much to ask for? Or even a league average rusher? I want quality over quantity, especially in the new system. The Ram’s success under Martz was built on defenses knowing that, if they cheated out for the pass, Marshall Faulk would make them pay for it. Do you think teams have that concern after watching Forte over the last 2 seasons? Can Forte change that? I think so. The Bears addressed the O-line (we hope), at least in terms of coaching and player utilization, and they addressed the problem of having a douche as an Offensive Coordinator. Both those things should help. But they will not mask Forte’s yards after contact numbers. They might compensate for them, but they won’t mask them. Forte needs to improve, as well.
in•san•i•ty \in-ˈsa-nə-tē\ noun
1 : The practice of repeating the same action while expecting different results.
by Timothy Hockemeyer on Jul 27, 2010 11:17 AM CDT up reply actions
T-train you are absolutely correct
From what we all have seen from Forte, we can conclude he lacks NFL running back instincts, drive, determination, toughness, balance, and creativity.
That is not on the scheme or the O-line.
"Michael Redd's owed 18.3 million next year. He can either opt out like an idiot or opt in like a douche bag." - NittanyCub
ummmm........
That’s not what I was saying at all. I just think he needs to work on his footwork, balance and reaction time, which are all correctable problems.
Balance, I’ll agree with.
Instincts are arguable, but I don’t believe that his instincts are an issue.
Creativity isn’t on Forte, but the OC, so I don’t see that being a Forte issue.
Determination and drive NOT his problem. I don’t see Forte as a quitter in the least, and his work ethic, at least as it has been written about, leaves no room to question his determination as far as his desire to be in the league or his drive to be the best he can be.
Toughness depends on your definition. If you are talking about injury issues, then I really can’t argue other than to say that nothing that I’ve seen or read has lead me to believe that Forte’s injuries have anything to do with his conditioning. Sometimes players just get injured. But if you mean toughness as in Mental toughness, then I am again inclined to disagree completely. Forte doesn’t take the easy way out. He doesn’t hit the sidelines or appear to give up when he’s tackled. And he certainly doesn’t shy away from hits. In fact, I would argue that he doesn’t look hard enough to avoid the tackle.
If I was a betting man, I’d actually place my money on Forte improving over last year. And not just on normal, base statistic lines. He just doesn’t seem like the kind of kid that would be satisfied with what he’s done so far. I think this year Forte breaks the 4.0 ypc mark, and he moves to the middle of the pack in yards after contact. I’d give him a better chance of improving than not, and I look forward to the idea of singing his praises later in the year.
But if he doesn’t improve, something’s got to change. I think the Bears see that, as well. The acquisition of Taylor, along with the supplemental pickup of probable 3rd-4th round pick in the 2011 draft Harvey Unga says to me that Angelo isn’t entirely pleased with what Forte has done, either.
in•san•i•ty \in-ˈsa-nə-tē\ noun
1 : The practice of repeating the same action while expecting different results.
by Timothy Hockemeyer on Jul 29, 2010 10:57 PM CDT up reply actions
did you even read Train's post?
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Jul 30, 2010 8:32 AM CDT up reply actions
Sources......
Football Outsiders 2008 RB rankings And this was his “good, healthy” season….ranked 38th in DYAR and 38th in DVOA……..but I’m the only one seeing the problems here? I didn’t change my opinion after seeing these stats. It was evident just by watching. The figures only seem to back up what I’ve been saying all along. I find it funny how some will make it seem as though I am just some reckloose trying to knock down the team because I see a problem with a RB that isn’t running well.
And 2009 rankings…… Notice the 47th in DYAR ranking and the 44th in DVOA………
PFF 2008 rankings take notice of his placement in the rushing catagory.
If you really have a problem with my argument than try dissecting it. Believe what you want, but I absolutely want Forte to succeed, and if he does, I’ll be right here singing tthe praises of his improvements. But if you expect me to somehow pretend that the last to seasons of mediocre, at best, running diddn’t happen, well, you’ll be sorely disappointed. In fact, in my book, the fact that Forte improved on his worst aspect of the game will be used as proof of just how good he will have become and just how good his work ethic, smarts and character really are, which I have never doubted.
in•san•i•ty \in-ˈsa-nə-tē\ noun
1 : The practice of repeating the same action while expecting different results.
by Timothy Hockemeyer on Jul 26, 2010 3:25 PM CDT up reply actions
well if your argument is (it is)
Forte’s stats were _________ , therefore Forte is ______________. Then your argument is fellatious.
But if your argument is.......
I saw this, therefor Forte is that, then yours in even more flawed, my friend. I asked a question above that you didn’t answer. Please provide the names of the unproductive greats. I’m waiting ;)
in•san•i•ty \in-ˈsa-nə-tē\ noun
1 : The practice of repeating the same action while expecting different results.
by Timothy Hockemeyer on Jul 26, 2010 5:38 PM CDT up reply actions
WOW!!!
stop slow down and breath. you are getting ahead of yourself.
I would analogize this. This is not a debate. You either see and understand what I am saying or you don’t. If the latter applies don’t bother responding with your version of how u see things, just don’t, but do throw your computer out a window.
Me: I see the sky. It is blue. I say I think the sky is blue.
You: When asked 75% of time people answered the sky is blue. Therefore it is blue.
The statement attributed to me is based on personal knowledge and experience. Mine is 100 % true when I say it / in context.
Your statement is based on a collection of inconclusive data and the conclusions derived from such are never 100% true.
Not trying to condinsend, but this is basic 1st semester logic. Logic is not forgiving of margins of error such as a preponderance of the evidence or beyond a reasonable doubt. X either proves Y or it doesn’t.
Your question is not worthy and the premise on which it is founded is similar to arguing that Trent Dilfer is better then Marino because Dilfer has a su[er bowl ring and Marino does not.
If you say that Forte is good because.....
you saw Forte as good, then that assumes that what you saw is the absolute truth, which it is not.
You make the entirely flawed assumption that stats alone are what I base my opinion on. Unfortunately for your argument, that’s not the case. I watch the games, and then I formulate an opinion on what I saw. Then I check the stats, and if they match up with what I saw, then i feel comfortable in my opinion. If they do not, then I continue searching for the reason they didn’t match. That’s critical thinking 101 with a dash of scientific theory thrown in for good measure. If they As I said before. I’ve questioned his rushing ability since year one. Before he had a complete season of stats. He doesn’t generally make people miss, doesn’t generally drag people, and isn’t generally a good rusher……but he definitely has the ability to improve.
The stats happen to back up what I have observed. Can you say the same? Insane asylums are filled with people who believe that what they saw is the truth, regardless of evidence to the contrary. Doesn’t make them right.
Trying not to be condescending sure sounds a lot like condescending…….. Maybe you should retake that logics class. Your perspective definitely has a margin of error, yet you chose to ignore it, as well. I do not ignore the margin for error in the stats, but when I observe something, and then the stats back it up, well……I tend to believe what I see. You haven’t offered any evidence of Forte’s greatness other than to say “It’s true because I saw it!”. Not exactly a logical argument, especially in the case of sports, where thousands of plays, not just the highlights, make up the sample. Sounds like more than one class needs a refresher.
Here’s what I see……
Your argument is perception…….
My argument is perception with statistical backing……….
And you claim that your perception alone trumps my perception with stats. Sounds like condescension to me. Also sounds flawed.
in•san•i•ty \in-ˈsa-nə-tē\ noun
1 : The practice of repeating the same action while expecting different results.
by Timothy Hockemeyer on Jul 26, 2010 6:49 PM CDT up reply actions
umm NO
consider this legal testimony. The only margin involved with my statements is the credibility or weight you give to them as I am simply giving an honest and logical strong portrayal of my personal experience. So take it or leave it.
Your statements involve hearsay, using inconclusive stats to prove the truth or falsity of the matter asserted As such they are inadmissible and the jury and anybody not wishing to become dumber should disregard them. Good day sir!
That you, Judge No It All......
But, your premise, and your legal judgement, are flawed.
You dragged an interesting point right across the argument that more opportunities means more production, which is only true if the receivers are capable of that production. The argument has some merit, as two receivers who both have 80 receptions for 1200 yards and 8 TDS might seems similar on paper until you see that one caught 52% of his 154 targets, while the other caught 80% of his 100 targets. Add to that that the first receiver recorded 8 drops while the second only recorded 2 in his 100 targets.
But then, that’s the same argument that you discredit that I make on Matt Forte.
You see, Know, Aromashodu and Bennett all did reasonably well as the season wore on and they grew into their roles. They ended up with pretty respectable numbers. Not just normal stat lines, but in regards to drops, percentage caught and yards after catch.
Now, if you want to drag the big red herring of opportunities across the argument, then you cannot ignore the above league average number of carries that Forte took over the past two years, or the below league average yards per carry or yards after contact that he produced.
Anyone can crap on the stats to try to dissuade from the argument. That’s textbook debate technique. If you cannot produce validation for your own argument, try and discredit the information presented against it. But let me ask you this? What makes your personal observation more accredited than mine? That’s the flaw in your argument. The stats are not the basis of my opinion. They just support it. My personal observation was the basis. just like yours. The difference is that the statistics, however badly you wish to discredit them, support my theory, not yours.
And you keep dodging the unproductive greats……….the crickets are getting tired of chirping. they’re just sighing now.
in•san•i•ty \in-ˈsa-nə-tē\ noun
1 : The practice of repeating the same action while expecting different results.
by Timothy Hockemeyer on Jul 26, 2010 7:29 PM CDT up reply actions
Fellatious?
I do not think that word means what you think it means. Or you have a very peculiar (warped) sense of humor. Fallacious. Maybe. Fellacious- google it. I think you’ll be amused.
If you can't laugh at yourself you must not be very funny.
I remain a pessimistically hopeful Bears fan.
Err. Google Fellatious instead. That's what I meant.
If you can't laugh at yourself you must not be very funny.
I remain a pessimistically hopeful Bears fan.
I was going to point that out, but......
I didn’t want to be a words lawyer in this kind of argument. Still………I’m glad someone did, because I nearly spit soda from my nose when I first saw it. :)
in•san•i•ty \in-ˈsa-nə-tē\ noun
1 : The practice of repeating the same action while expecting different results.
by Timothy Hockemeyer on Jul 26, 2010 9:40 PM CDT up reply actions
I really didn't see your argument
as c**k sucking. Maybe he did. That’s all.
If you can't laugh at yourself you must not be very funny.
I remain a pessimistically hopeful Bears fan.
right.
That was exactly what I thought, too. When I first saw it, I literally laughed out loud.
in•san•i•ty \in-ˈsa-nə-tē\ noun
1 : The practice of repeating the same action while expecting different results.
by Timothy Hockemeyer on Jul 26, 2010 11:04 PM CDT up reply actions
I have dissected your arguments
you just don’t like my explanation. You want to put all the blame for what you consider Forte’s “mediocre” stats on Forte himself and , I and others apparently, think that is simple minded.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Jul 27, 2010 8:31 AM CDT up reply actions
You know.....
you can keep trying to mis-characterize my argument, but it won’t work. I take all of these things in stride, my friend. I have repeated my position to death, and I don’t think I need to again. But the fact that you want to absolve Forte of any blame in the running game, instead placing all the blame on Turner and the Matadors (who deserve a nice share of it themselves, but certainly not all of it) is what I, others, and the finally-coming-around media disagree with (or call simple minded, if you prefer).
But these types of arguments won’t work with me. Changing the focus of the discussion (awaiting my posts on Forte following this season), condescension (simple minded, awaitng more interesting reading) and mis-characterizations (claiming that I amplacing all the blame on Forte, when I have clearly placed plenty of blame on Turner and the Line) are seen for what they are by most people……..an admission that you cannot back your own argument. I accept your concession.
in•san•i•ty \in-ˈsa-nə-tē\ noun
1 : The practice of repeating the same action while expecting different results.
by Timothy Hockemeyer on Jul 27, 2010 11:28 AM CDT up reply actions
Stinkin thinkin
offering another explanation is not changing the focus of the argument.You have your theory, Forte is a pedestrian runner, I have another theory. Why is that so hard for you to accept? Are you really that insecure?
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Jul 28, 2010 9:00 AM CDT up reply actions
Same crap....different post.
I havent changed a thing about my argument, but nice try. And I’ve never said I have a problem with your theory. Nothing is absolute, especially in football. Why do you feel the need to mi-characterize my words?I know why. Because you cannot back your own argument. Another admission by ’Red of failure.
in•san•i•ty \in-ˈsa-nə-tē\ noun
1 : The practice of repeating the same action while expecting different results.
by Timothy Hockemeyer on Jul 28, 2010 9:53 AM CDT up reply actions
yawn
people will disagree with you, deal with it
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Jul 28, 2010 10:55 AM CDT up reply actions
I have no problem with that. Apparently you do.
in•san•i•ty \in-ˈsa-nə-tē\ noun
1 : The practice of repeating the same action while expecting different results.
by Timothy Hockemeyer on Jul 28, 2010 1:52 PM CDT up reply actions
The last word.
But I bet it’s not.
If you can't laugh at yourself you must not be very funny.
I remain a pessimistically hopeful Bears fan.
Nice post Olsen?
I wonder how much Olsen will come into play this season. Martz said he would design plays for him and I hope he does. The plus side for the Bear’s WRs is they are perfect for the system they are in. Week 16 will be a bitch but a little upside (also a Jets fan as well as the Bears) Ted Ginn won the battle with Revis last year so Hester may give him a little trouble if he does in fact guard Hester. But that is pretty rare to see Revis have trouble guarding anyone at all.
Since the face been revealed the game got real
If Revis can get his hands on Hester at the line of scrimmage, he will shut him down.
I agree though that the WR with the most potential to beat Revis is Hester. Hester has to be physical in this game as he should be physical in every game for him to win that battle.
by Dominique Blanton on Jul 26, 2010 7:59 PM CDT up reply actions
So,
who will be our #1 reciever? I am really hoping Aromashodu and Knox will be our #1 and 2, respectively. I want Bennett to be the slot reciever, and Hester to return kicks.
The only time the Mets win is in the offseason.
Don't count on it.
The offseason has been littered with stories like this one.
"The time has come to get deeply into Football. It is the only thing we have left that ain't fixed." - HST
Hester is the best WR we have
and during this last month before training camp he’s been working with Issac Bruce to better learn this offense and you want him to return kicks. Go suck a lemon.
by PolishSausage.Ditka.Bears. on Jul 26, 2010 11:18 PM CDT up reply actions
TBD
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Jul 27, 2010 8:31 AM CDT up reply actions
Definately the biggest test for our WRs
Will be against Revis, Cromartie and the Jets. The Packers had their way with us last year, as well. But I think we play better against our division rivals this year…
Depends on how well they can learn the playbook
and at this point they need to prove me wrong based on past performance.
I’m not really expecting much good this year.
WR is the least important position on a football team.
Great breakdowns.
"Michael Redd's owed 18.3 million next year. He can either opt out like an idiot or opt in like a douche bag." - NittanyCub
Have you ever watched Martz's offense?
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Jul 30, 2010 8:33 AM CDT up reply actions
It Can Be Exceptionally Good
If we start Knox and Aromashodu at receiver and put Hester as return man like we did when we went to the Super Bowl.
that ship has sailed
continued pining for Hester to be an exclusive return man is a waste of time and space… he’s a receiver… and quite possible he’ll pull the best numbers of all the Bears receivers in 2010
In the 8th grade Mike Ditka won his school's Science Fair with a model of a working volcano. There were 17 other working volcano's made that day, but only one named Mount Ditka.
by Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. on Jul 30, 2010 1:25 PM CDT up reply actions
Probably true, that Hester will never be a full time return man
but I doubt he will ever be as impactful as a WR as he was a returner.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Jul 30, 2010 1:49 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm not sure that anyone.....
Other than Jerry Rice (maybe) had as much impact as a WR as Hester had as a return man. I’m honestly don’t remeber ever seeing teams put themselves in such horrid positions as to kick the football out of bound on kickoffs just to avoid one player touching the ball.
I ain’t sayin that Hester is a better player than Rice, obviously. I’m just saying I don’t remember any WR having that kind of impact. I don’t see Hester being the guy to change that, either. I think he can be a legitimate #1, which by my definition means the primary receiver, not some undefined elite status. But I don’t believe he will be a top WR in the mold of Andre Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald. But then, I never saw Steve Smith in that role either. Hester will have some great games, and will provide a better target than people are giving him credit for. Martz is going to have a field day finding uses fro Hester and Knox.
in•san•i•ty \in-ˈsa-nə-tē\ noun
1 : The practice of repeating the same action while expecting different results.
by Timothy Hockemeyer on Jul 30, 2010 3:26 PM CDT up reply actions
Agreed re: Hester's impact as a return man
They may need Hester full time as a WR but I will hope that DA, Knox, Bennett and Iglesias all step up and show they are NFL wideouts, allowing the Bears to move Hester to part-time WR and full-time KR/PR. The team would be much better off if that can happen.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Jul 31, 2010 9:50 AM CDT up reply actions
One thing that everyone seems to be forgetting is that for the last 2 seasons,
even when Hester has had chances for a return, he has looked terrible. Not even using his first 2 years as a benchmark, his attempts in the 2008 & 2009 seasons have been awful, in fact if it wasn’t for his first two years us fans would have been screaming at the Bears for putting him back there. It’s not a given that if you put him back as a full time return man, he’ll recapture the magic he once had. I’m not saying it can’t happen, but it’s definitely not a sure thing based on what we’ve seen for 2 years in a row.
And he has not been a special WR either
but we do know he was once a very special return man
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Jul 31, 2010 11:04 AM CDT up reply actions
Why Is That BearsfFan611?
Perhaps the reason he was not an as much as an impact is because they moved him? When Hester solely a Kickoff and Punt Returner, he was the most dynamic player in the NFL. When the Brain Trust of the Bears decided to move him to Wide Receiver he lost his focus and his moves on Special Teams. One could argue that playing Wide Receive in the NFL and having Return duties is too much for Hester to digest? That seems to be the case in my mind. Of course I could be wrong but I doubt it and that is just my opinion……………..
In Fact
This could go done as one of the biggest blunders in the history of the NFL with moving him into a role that made him average at both positions. The Bears can now be coined ’ The mistake by the lake" taking over Cleveland’s distinguished reputation.
I never said that was or wasn't the reason
all I did was state a fact that, as a return man for the last two years, he’s been terrible. Again, there is no guarantee that he would recapture the magic he had the first two seasons, but I didn’t say he couldn’t either, just that it’s not a sure thing.
I’ve stated before that I find it hard to believe that making him a WR is the complete reason he’s lost it as a return man. There have been too many other great return men in the past who have handled two jobs so to say that is the reason, in my opinion, infers that he can’t handle both duties and I don’t think that’s fair to him. There have been a lot of players, at different positions, who have had a great season or two and then never come close to that performance again. Perhaps (and I’m not saying it’s a definite here) that is what we have with Devin and his returns.
Hester has shown he can be a great return man
arguably the greatest ever; however, he has yet to prove he can be a good WR. I think you underestimate how much his focus on learning the WR trade impacted his return skills.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Aug 1, 2010 10:14 AM CDT up reply actions
Let me say it AGAIN....
I didn’t say that it did or didn’t affect him, nor do I care at this point. The situation is what it is and all I’m saying is that there is no guarantee he’ll ever be what he was as a return man even IF they put him back there full time, let me repeat I’m not saying he can’t, just that it’s not a sure bet. We all know the odds of a switch back to full time KR/PR happening are slim and none since this coaching/management team doesn’t admit to mistakes readily. I was never for the move to begin with but it’s what we’re stuck with and, as Da Coach says, “living in the past is for losers and cowards”.
Let me say it again
Hester as a return man is a proven quantity, whereas Hester the WR is not.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Aug 1, 2010 11:10 AM CDT up reply actions
I never said otherwise but I would disagree on 2 points...
1. He WAS a proven quantity as a return man, but he has 2 consecutive years of looking terrible on returns, so he has to show he can get that magic back.
2. He is currently a proven quantity at WR, obviously not at the same level of results as his first 2 years as KR but he has proven that he is an NFL WR at this point. Whether he can become that mythical #1 WR is up for debate but he has shown himself to be a more than adequate WR by anyone’s standards in my opinion.
I Disagree BearFan611
At what point was he TERRIBLE at returning kicks the last 2 years. Certainly he was not as much as an impact or great the last 2 seasons but terrible? Where do you get that from?
Also BearsFan611
What is this notion that Hester is a proven quality Wide Receiver? What I have seen is a lot of drops and poor route running. As a Receiver Hester has been average at best.
a lot of drops????
I can’t find actual stats anywhere for individual players but I’d be willing to bet that Hester was in the lower half to third of starting NFL receivers. I don’t know what games you were watching but if anyone has the stats please jump in.
Regarding his returns, he only averaged around 7 yards per PR last year which had him ranked far down the list, so it’s not just in comparison to the bar he set, it’s compared to the rest of the league.
A little help.......
Hester had 2 drops in 91 targets. Source……. He also caught a very respectable 62.6% of his targets.
To compare, fan darling Devin Aromashodu had 3 drops in 43 targets: source….. He also only caught 55.8% of his targets.
Johnny Knox had 3 drops in 80 targets and caught 56.3% of his targets: source……
Bennett’s numbers were 5 drops in 88 targets and caught 61.4% of his targets: source……
So Hester had the best numbers of any of our receivers in respects to drops and percentage of targets caught. The perception and the reality concerning our WRs are not quite the same. I think a lot of it has to do with people being mad that Hester doesn’t have the impact he had a a return man, and that disappointment translates into downplaying the successes he has actually enjoyed.
Hester stood a pretty good of crossing the 1000 yard mark before his injury forced him out of all but 1/2 of a game in December, limiting him to all of 1 catch for 46 yards in the last 4 games.
in•san•i•ty \in-ˈsa-nə-tē\ noun
1 : The practice of repeating the same action while expecting different results.
by Timothy Hockemeyer on Aug 1, 2010 5:39 PM CDT up reply actions
Thanks!
Even though I’ve been accused of being a #@*&ing Hester Hater, I’ve always said that he has come a long way as a WR. I didn’t think drops were a problem for him.
I would trust the Post, myself......
As far as statistics go, I would definitely trust the Post over PFF. Don’t get me wrong, I like PFF, but in a contest of credibility, I’d say the Washington Post has the win hands down.
in•san•i•ty \in-ˈsa-nə-tē\ noun
1 : The practice of repeating the same action while expecting different results.
by Timothy Hockemeyer on Aug 2, 2010 4:11 PM CDT up reply actions
Okay Well..........
If there are those of you who believe Hester is going to emerge as an All Pro receiver, good deal. I recall more than 2 drops but maybe it’s the Polish in me. I say mistake, BIG mistake in moving him and stand behind my position. GO BEARS!
I don't think anyone is.....
calling Hester an All Pro, or suggesting he will be. I think the discussion is still open as to whether he can be a legitimate #1 receiver (however that is supposed to be defined) but he did a lot better last year than many seem to want to give him credit for. That is my point.
in•san•i•ty \in-ˈsa-nə-tē\ noun
1 : The practice of repeating the same action while expecting different results.
by Timothy Hockemeyer on Aug 3, 2010 3:49 AM CDT up reply actions
Exactly...
all any of us, who defended him, said was that he has established himself as an NFL receiver. Nobody said he’s a #1 or a Pro Bowler or even that he would become either, although as T-Train said that can still be argued. Also, I think most of us agree that the original move was not popular nor the best thing for the Bears or Hester but it was the move that was made so you make the best of it. Had Hester been able to maintain any semblance of himself as a return man while handling the WR duties, no one would be upset.
Also.......
Stats.com also lists Hester as having 2 drops……….link.
in•san•i•ty \in-ˈsa-nə-tē\ noun
1 : The practice of repeating the same action while expecting different results.
by Timothy Hockemeyer on Aug 2, 2010 4:23 PM CDT up reply actions
Additionally......
Hester has a better drop percentage than Andre Johnson, Megatron, Ocho Cinco, Austin Collie, Carolina’s Steve Smith, Reggie Wayne, Wes Welker, Randy Moss, Vincent Jackson and Brandon Marshall. These are 9 of the WRs from the list of WRs I would personally consider the best in the league (Totally subjective, I know, but it is what it is, and it makes the point anyways)
In fact,the only WR in my Top 10 list that has a better drop percentage than Hester is Larry Fitzgerald.
Now I’m not lobbying for Hester to be considered in the same league as these receivers. But I am saying that, given his drop percentage is better than all but one of these receivers, calling Hester out on drops or his hands (considering his percentage of targets caught is roughly comparable to all of these receivers, as well) is confusing. He’s performing admirably in that aspect.
in•san•i•ty \in-ˈsa-nə-tē\ noun
1 : The practice of repeating the same action while expecting different results.
by Timothy Hockemeyer on Aug 1, 2010 5:55 PM CDT up reply actions
I could see someone complaining about route adjustments with hester,
but Hester hands has never been the problem. You can make a argument that he has the best hands on the team.
by Dominique Blanton on Aug 3, 2010 9:38 PM CDT up reply actions
Agreed and agreed.......
in•san•i•ty \in-ˈsa-nə-tē\ noun
1 : The practice of repeating the same action while expecting different results.
by Timothy Hockemeyer on Aug 4, 2010 6:19 AM CDT up reply actions
yep......
Given that he has the best drop ratio on the team, who would you replace him with?
in•san•i•ty \in-ˈsa-nə-tē\ noun
1 : The practice of repeating the same action while expecting different results.
by Timothy Hockemeyer on Aug 4, 2010 8:55 PM CDT up reply actions
Exactly!
That is the best comment I ever heard you say. In fact, that’s the best way I ever seen this issue delivered.
Thought I'd chime in....
There should be no excuse for the Bears not to have a good day through the air on opening day.
From watching Jay last year…. he doesn’t seem to do to well throwing off his back foot or with pressure in his face. Its easy to assume that the weak secondary of the Lions will be a cake to throw at… but to ignore Martz’s offensive scheme’s sack record is dangerous. Expect Jay to throw for 4000yds this year… but also expect him to be on his back alot more than 35 times… his sack # from last year.
Remember this post.........
Even the fans of the lowly Lions, who haven’t won a damned thing since Bobby Layne cursed them for trading him in ’58 and are only 2 seasons removed from the losing-est season in NFL history , think their team has a good shot of containing the Monsters of the Midway and our new offense…………
Will our Beloved Bears shock the world? Will Cutler step up to the plate and prove the doubters wrong? Will Urlacher make his triumphant return? Will all of this vapid Ursism end? Tune in…..same Bear time, same Bear channel!!!!
in•san•i•ty \in-ˈsa-nə-tē\ noun
1 : The practice of repeating the same action while expecting different results.
by Timothy Hockemeyer on Aug 6, 2010 6:40 AM CDT up reply actions
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