Jay Cutler's Targets
by Mike Mueller on Aug 25, 2010 11:00 AM CDT
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With the switch to Mike Martz's offense, the question for most fans & media was: who would see the targets in the passing game & how would Jay do with another new offense? Can Martz utilize the tight end position as more than a blocker? During the first day of training camp, the Bears seemed to go out of their way to showcase the tight ends. Was that done to just quiet the critics? Or are the tight ends going to be big players in the Martzfense?
The Chicago Tribune detailed every pass Jay Cutler threw in training camp in 7-on-7 and 11-on-11 drills.
The Tribune charted the quarterback throughout training camp to get a sense for how he was settling into Mike Martz's offense and to learn how the ball was being distributed. LINK
Before we get to this years' training camp, first let's look at Jay Cutler and the rest of the Bears last season: Cutler was 336-of-555 for a 60.5% completion percentage with 26 interceptions.
His receivers last year (Note: I dropped some off the list so Jay's attempts/completions don't all add up to what's below):
| 2009 Receiving Stats | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Name | Targets | Targ % | Recpt. | Catch % |
| Greg Olsen | 108 | 20.1% | 60 | 55.6% |
| Devin Hester | 91 | 16.9% | 57 | 62.6% |
| Earl Bennett | 88 | 16.4% | 54 | 61.4% |
| Johnny Knox | 80 | 14.9% | 45 | 56.3% |
| Matt Forte | 72 | 13.4% | 57 | 79.2% |
| Devin Aromashodu | 43 | 8.0% | 24 | 55.8% |
| Dez Clark | 34 | 6.3% | 19 | 55.9% |
| Kellen Davis | 13 | 2.4% | 9 | 69.2% |
| Rashied Davis | 8 | 1.5% | 5 | 62.5% |
| TOTAL | 537 | 100.0% | 330 | 61.5% |
First off, Greg Olsen was targeted 20% of the time last year. The Tight Ends, as a group, were targeted nearly 29% of the time. The Wide Receivers were targeted nearly 58% of the time. The RBs are at 14% (when Bell & Wolfe are added in).
Historically, Mike Martz does not target tight ends nearly as often as the Bears & Jay Cutler have. Mike Clay of Fantasy Depth Chart and ProFootballFocus.com did an extensive breakdown of every season of the Mike Martz offense. (Go here to see the results, and here for my analysis.)
Looking at ten years of data on Martz: wide receivers received 64% of the targets, TEs just 9%, and RBs 25%.
That brings us to this year's team. This training camp, overall, Jay Cutler was 323-of-475 for a 68% completion percentage. He threw 10 interceptions.
His targets & receptions breakdown:
| 2010 Training Camp | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Name | Targets | Targ % | Recpt. | Catch % |
| Greg Olsen | 86 | 19.2% | 55 | 64.0% |
| Devin Aromashodu | 77 | 17.2% | 51 | 66.2% |
| Johnny Knox | 77 | 17.2% | 50 | 64.9% |
| Devin Hester | 76 | 17.0% | 59 | 77.6% |
| Rashied Davis | 39 | 8.7% | 20 | 51.3% |
| Matt Forte | 38 | 8.5% | 27 | 71.1% |
| Chester Taylor | 31 | 6.9% | 23 | 74.2% |
| Dez Clark | 23 | 5.1% | 16 | 69.6% |
| TOTAL | 447 | 100.0% | 301 | 67.3% |
The pass distribution to the TEs is at 24%, the WRs at 60%, & the RBs at 15%.
This training camp's target distribution is very similar to last season's and not at all like Martz's previous seasons. What can we make of all this to predict how this season goes?
My uneducated guess has the TE targets probably dropping down to 17-20% and the RB targets to go up to at least 20%. With talented receiving running backs Matt Forte and Chester Taylor both getting lots of playing time, they will be used both in pass play design and as safety valves or check-downs.
As for the wide receivers, the Bears went to them 58% last year, 60% in training camp and Martz likes to go to them 64% of the time. I think its safe to say they will get around 60% (+/- a couple %) of the targets during the season.
One other thing to note, which is definitely a good thing, is that all the main receivers' catch percentages during training camp are higher (and in some cases much higher) than their regular season #'s. This is to be expected because of the contact limitations and the nature of 7-on-7, but it's still encouraging to see it in the stats. Looks like Hester, both last year and in training camp, among WRs & TEs with alot of reps, catches the highest percentage of balls thrown his way... interesting.
Go Bears!
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What This Tells Me
1. Devin Hester has better hands than most people are/have been willing to give him credit for in the past. I remember when he was first converted to WR a lot of people said “OK but can he catch?” Looks like yes, yes he can.
2. The TEs will be used in this offense. I think that while they could see a drop off this year from last year, they will still be used and very effectively. We’ve seen it already in the preseason a bit and these numbers back it up. I think Martz is going to use them and very effectively. Let’s drop the Martz won’t use TEs thing.
"I was interviewing George Halas and I asked him who is the greatest running back you ever saw. And he said, 'That would be Red Grange.' And I asked him if Grange was playing today, how many yards do you think he'd gain. And he said, 'About 750, maybe 800 yards.' And I said, 'Well, 800 yards is just okay.' He sat up in his chair and he said, 'Son, you must remember one thing. Red Grange is 75 years old.' - Chris Berman
by Sam Householder on Aug 25, 2010 11:31 AM CDT reply actions
Great
Yes I believe the ball will be distributed fairly enough to keep everyone happy.
by Dozjah on Aug 25, 2010 11:49 AM CDT via mobile reply actions
That's all I want, hit the open man. Don't favor someone so much that you throw into triple coverage instead of to someone that's wide open, for a first down.
We have several WRs that can hold onto the ball. I’d much rather Jay get the ball to our receivers with room to maneuver than try to thread it to someone who’s immediately tackled. Most of Jerry Rice’s TDs were on relatively short passes in the flats, putting Joe Montana, Steve Young and himself into the HOF.
Best is a relative word.
Especially on this team….
If you can't laugh at yourself you must not be very funny.
I remain a pessimistically hopeful Bears fan.
Not according to catch percentage...........
in•san•i•ty \in-ˈsa-nə-tē\ noun
1 : The practice of repeating the same action while expecting different results.
by Timothy Hockemeyer on Aug 25, 2010 6:29 PM CDT up reply actions
Well done
Martz will play to his teams strengths…
In the 8th grade Mike Ditka won his school's Science Fair with a model of a working volcano. There were 17 other working volcano's made that day, but only one named Mount Ditka.
by Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. on Aug 25, 2010 12:26 PM CDT reply actions
Speaking of Martz....
His offense is unpredictable, so I can see a new guy having a big game every week.
by Dozjah on Aug 25, 2010 12:38 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
Ditto, Unpredictable!
Let everyone continue thinking he isn’t smart enough or prone to use talented TE’s!
I love watching Olsen going deep and splitting the FS & SS, … he’s as fast as most of them and has a fifty pound Load on them :)
Go Bears!
Olsen
Ran a 4.5 at the combine
That’s blazing speed for a TE.
Most FS ar ein the 4.5-4.7 range and most SS are i nthe 4.5-4.8 range.
So Olsen is actually faster than the average NFL safety
Which is why they'll keep throwing to Olsen
They can split him out wide and force the defense to commit a safety or corner to try and cover him.
Yup and it's why Martz...
Will find a way to use him.
Just because he hasn’t used TE’s in the past doesn’t mean he won’t now.
Honestly he has never had a good recieving TE to use.
Because when the Rams went to the SB when martz was OC pass catchig TE’s weren’t the big thing. Everyone wanted big blocking TE’s.
But now that he has this TE toy…He’ll use him.
I'm hoping Knox has a big week every week
he’s on my fantasy team. I know, I know, it’s not about fantasy stats, I’m just sayin it’d be a double bonus.
David Taylor's personal hype man. Check out his website unless you're a loser. http://www.cheekymonkeyart.com/
by Ditkavsworld on Aug 25, 2010 2:02 PM CDT up reply actions
I look forward to Anthony Adams’ game-winning score in week 13. Hey, the Fridge caught one against the scum Pack!
"44 years of football history and nothing to show for it. I wish I wasn’t banned at the Norseman.." - tfrabotta
"Fellas, what are they, unblockable? Is that the '85 Bears over there?" - overheard at Giants' '06 training camp
~~~ Check my profile for links for SB20 and America's Game: '85 Bears ~~~
Shucks!
Just when that “Feel Good” is creeping up on me, someone has to mention the O-Line :(
The RBs will get a lot of targets as:
safety valves or check-downs
When JC has little to no time, the backs will get their share of dump-offs.
by Mike Mueller on Aug 25, 2010 1:07 PM CDT up reply actions
yeah, but he belongs in the slot
In the 8th grade Mike Ditka won his school's Science Fair with a model of a working volcano. There were 17 other working volcano's made that day, but only one named Mount Ditka.
by Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. on Aug 25, 2010 1:43 PM CDT up reply actions
Can't he be a #1 in the slot?
David Taylor's personal hype man. Check out his website unless you're a loser. http://www.cheekymonkeyart.com/
by Ditkavsworld on Aug 25, 2010 2:01 PM CDT up reply actions
omg
In the 8th grade Mike Ditka won his school's Science Fair with a model of a working volcano. There were 17 other working volcano's made that day, but only one named Mount Ditka.
by Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. on Aug 25, 2010 2:01 PM CDT up reply actions
Too far? Sorry.
David Taylor's personal hype man. Check out his website unless you're a loser. http://www.cheekymonkeyart.com/
by Ditkavsworld on Aug 25, 2010 2:03 PM CDT up reply actions
lol
In the 8th grade Mike Ditka won his school's Science Fair with a model of a working volcano. There were 17 other working volcano's made that day, but only one named Mount Ditka.
by Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. on Aug 25, 2010 2:24 PM CDT up reply actions
Why?
I’ve been waiting for someone to actually define the undefined term of “#1 receiver”. I honestly think this is the most overused and undefined term in the NFL………..along with “boom”
in•san•i•ty \in-ˈsa-nə-tē\ noun
1 : The practice of repeating the same action while expecting different results.
by Timothy Hockemeyer on Aug 25, 2010 6:32 PM CDT up reply actions
omg
In the 8th grade Mike Ditka won his school's Science Fair with a model of a working volcano. There were 17 other working volcano's made that day, but only one named Mount Ditka.
by Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. on Aug 26, 2010 8:45 AM CDT up reply actions
???
What? It’s not a legitimate question? Sorry, but I have challenged this notion several times with little more than crickets in response. For what seems like such an accepted and “common knowledge” notion, you would think I could get at least one response that was more than dismissive.
in•san•i•ty \in-ˈsa-nə-tē\ noun
1 : The practice of repeating the same action while expecting different results.
by Timothy Hockemeyer on Aug 26, 2010 6:10 PM CDT up reply actions
To me, the #1 receiver is the one that the QB is always looking for in critical situations because of the reliability of his routes and hands.
Too many people seem to believe that it’s all about size and speed. I recall so many people wanted the Bears to go after TO when the Cowboys released him, but the truth of the matter is that the Cowboys let him go because of the drops in critical situations. The past few years TO has feasted on the bottom feeders, cut off routes when he’s not the primary receiver and was never one to block downfield, yet most would have called him the #1 receiver had he come to the team. And that’s not even mentioning the off field distractions. I’m convinced, barring injuries, we’ll have more than one 1000 yard receiver from this group.
WR
I really think that DA will be the #1 Target this year. Good chemistry w/Jay and makes big plays whenever he’s out there.
Some thoughts
Hester-I guess he caught a high percentage of the ball thrown at him last season, didn’t seem that way
Olsen-A lot of Cutler’s picks came from passes forced to Olsen, but so did a lot of his Bennett-He plays big, probably our toughest receiver, and made some great catches
Knox-Plays smaller than Bennett, was a cause for a few of Cutler’s picks
Aromashadu-Seems to get wide open very often, makes excellent adjustments to the ball in the air
It seems that Aroma and Bennett make the toughest catches
The group overall has great speed
Hester, Aroma and Knox have all ran sub-4.4 forties while Olsen is fast for a TE and Bennett has deceptive speed.
I think our receivers are going to be fine, they are all above average and defenses will have trouble focusing in on one of them.
The Bears
Could legitimately have a 5 or 6 receiver set with their weapons which could make defending the pass a challenge and make blitzes blow up in the face of other teams.
6 receivers?
ummmmmm……..5 down linemen, plus 6 receivers = 11. Where’s the QB? Maybe a wildcat with Hester in the backfield? I don’t see how this would work.
in•san•i•ty \in-ˈsa-nə-tē\ noun
1 : The practice of repeating the same action while expecting different results.
by Timothy Hockemeyer on Aug 26, 2010 5:36 PM CDT up reply actions
Who needs freakin' guards?
If you can't laugh at yourself you must not be very funny.
I remain a pessimistically hopeful Bears fan.
Jay Sizzle raises his hand enthusiastically!
in•san•i•ty \in-ˈsa-nə-tē\ noun
1 : The practice of repeating the same action while expecting different results.
by Timothy Hockemeyer on Aug 26, 2010 8:59 PM CDT up reply actions
Nice data
Lifelong Arizona Cardinals/Chicago Bears fan [I have always lived in Arizona, dad is from Chicago].
I can't stand fair-weather/bandwagon fans, stick with your team, throughout the good and the bad. And don't switch to whichever team wins the Super Bowl each year.
I knew it!
Even without the stats (77.6%) I thought the Hester had terrific hands and he seems to able to make the tough catch. I don’t care if Hester is put in the so-called #1 receiver spot, he will be the Bears best receiver with the most catches. I just wish you all could give the guy a break and look at some highlights on youtube. Look it up, I did. I hear alot about DA’s catching prowess, but don’t forger he’s been around for 5 years and Hester has been a receiver for 2 years and look at the progress he’s made. I say look out for Hester this year! I agree withe Chris Harris when he stated " this will be Devin Hester’s breakout year!"
"Most important thought, if you love someone, tell him or her, for you never know what tomorrow may have in store." ~ The Great Walter J. Payton.
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