Aaron Schatz of the Football Outsiders recently released his 2010 DVOA Projections. DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, is an interesting statistic that proves more predictive that traditional statistics. I have used DVOA and DVOA-based analysis to win a number of fantasy leagues, so I have first-hand seen its ability in forecasting and I applaud its logical and careful construction.
At the same time, having played football for 11 years and studied economics for 6, I am concerned by the amount of uncontrollable variables that fly around a football field and am therefore not wholly sold into realm football sabermetrics.
That said, I'm a Bears fan to the core, so I take any shred of hope regarding the Bears. According to Schatz' analysis, the Bears are better constructed than the Vikings and could very well make the wild card! They are the 8th best team in the league, but very close to the Vikes.
I advise anyone to check out the original article, but here's the final chart:
(Blue is a Wild Card winner, yellow wins a division.)
| TEAM | TOTAL DVOA |
TOTAL RANK |
MEAN WINS |
OFFENSE DVOA |
OFF. RANK |
DEFENSE DVOA |
DEF. RANK |
SPECIAL DVOA |
S.T. RANK |
SCHED | SCHED RANK |
| BAL | 31.5% | 1 | 12.2 | 20.1% | 5 | -13.0% | 1 | -1.6% | 27 | 1.6% | 16 |
| PIT | 26.8% | 2 | 11.1 | 21.9% | 2 | -3.6% | 9 | 1.3% | 10 | 2.8% | 11 |
| NE | 21.4% | 3 | 10.0 | 20.7% | 4 | 3.1% | 19 | 3.9% | 3 | 4.7% | 7 |
| IND | 20.3% | 4 | 11.4 | 27.6% | 1 | 8.0% | 25 | 0.7% | 12 | -3.3% | 24 |
| ATL | 19.1% | 5 | 10.9 | 21.6% | 3 | 2.5% | 18 | 0.1% | 16 | -0.3% | 20 |
| GB | 15.5% | 6 | 9.6 | 18.7% | 6 | 1.4% | 14 | -1.9% | 28 | 3.0% | 10 |
| PHI | 14.4% | 7 | 9.2 | 10.4% | 10 | 2.3% | 17 | 6.3% | 1 | 2.4% | 12 |
| CHI | 14.1% | 8 | 9.3 | 2.5% | 17 | -9.6% | 2 | 2.0% | 8 | 2.2% | 13 |
| MIN | 13.5% | 9 | 9.0 | 12.3% | 8 | -2.5% | 10 | -1.2% | 24 | 6.5% | 5 |
| MIA | 12.9% | 10 | 9.3 | 6.2% | 13 | -7.3% | 5 | -0.6% | 23 | 2.0% | 14 |
| NYJ | 12.4% | 11 | 8.9 | 5.1% | 14 | -8.6% | 4 | -1.3% | 25 | 4.8% | 6 |
| WAS | 12.0% | 12 | 9.4 | 6.3% | 12 | -4.2% | 8 | 1.4% | 9 | 0.2% | 19 |
| NO | 9.6% | 13 | 9.1 | 18.0% | 7 | 6.1% | 22 | -2.3% | 31 | 0.6% | 18 |
| NYG | 8.8% | 14 | 8.8 | 8.6% | 11 | -0.4% | 13 | -0.1% | 19 | 1.6% | 15 |
| DAL | 2.7% | 15 | 7.7 | 5.0% | 15 | 1.7% | 15 | -0.6% | 22 | 3.4% | 9 |
| KC | -0.7% | 16 | 9.0 | 1.9% | 19 | 3.3% | 20 | 0.6% | 13 | -9.7% | 32 |
| TEAM | TOTAL DVOA |
TOTAL RANK |
MEAN WINS |
OFFENSE DVOA |
OFF. RANK |
DEFENSE DVOA |
DEF. RANK |
SPECIAL DVOA |
S.T. RANK |
SCHED | SCHED RANK |
| CIN | -2.6% | 17 | 6.7 | 0.9% | 20 | 2.0% | 16 | -1.5% | 26 | 6.5% | 4 |
| ARI | -5.3% | 18 | 8.0 | -4.2% | 26 | -0.8% | 12 | -1.9% | 29 | -5.9% | 29 |
| SD | -5.5% | 19 | 8.4 | 12.1% | 9 | 15.4% | 29 | -2.2% | 30 | -7.5% | 31 |
| DEN | -6.6% | 20 | 8.0 | 0.9% | 21 | 7.0% | 23 | -0.5% | 21 | -5.9% | 28 |
| SEA | -6.7% | 21 | 7.6 | -14.3% | 27 | -4.7% | 7 | 2.8% | 6 | -5.1% | 27 |
| TEN | -6.8% | 22 | 7.2 | -3.4% | 25 | 3.5% | 21 | 0.1% | 15 | -0.6% | 21 |
| CAR | -7.8% | 23 | 6.5 | 0.3% | 22 | 7.7% | 24 | -0.4% | 20 | 1.3% | 17 |
| BUF | -11.3% | 24 | 5.3 | -23.3% | 30 | -9.4% | 3 | 2.6% | 7 | 7.1% | 2 |
| JAC | -11.4% | 25 | 7.0 | 2.5% | 18 | 14.2% | 28 | 0.3% | 14 | -1.8% | 23 |
| TB | -11.5% | 26 | 6.9 | 2.6% | 16 | 14.1% | 27 | 0.0% | 17 | -0.7% | 22 |
| HOU | -18.5% | 27 | 4.8 | -2.7% | 24 | 15.7% | 30 | -0.1% | 18 | 3.4% | 8 |
| SF | -19.2% | 28 | 6.2 | -26.2% | 31 | -1.6% | 11 | 5.4% | 2 | -4.2% | 26 |
| CLE | -20.6% | 29 | 4.3 | -30.5% | 32 | -6.7% | 6 | 3.2% | 4 | 7.3% | 1 |
| STL | -22.0% | 30 | 6.2 | -1.3% | 23 | 18.0% | 31 | -2.8% | 32 | -6.9% | 30 |
| OAK | -30.5% | 31 | 4.9 | -23.1% | 29 | 10.6% | 26 | 3.1% | 5 | -3.4% | 25 |
| DET | -33.2% | 32 | 3.2 | -14.4% | 28 | 19.9% | 32 | 1.1% | 11 | 7.0% | 3 |
What should we take away from this? If nothing else, take away this: The Bears have a chance.
Poll
I am informed about DVOA and I feel:
...confident about it. (8 votes)
...okay, but not entirely convinced. (25 votes)
...open to it, but suspicious. (19 votes)
...unconvinced. (18 votes)
70 total votes
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