Monday Meaningless Statistics: Bears already in playoffs?

by Kev H on Sep 20, 2010 10:55 AM CDT in Notes

A 2-0 start. Not necessarily something anyone was expecting, (especially the "experts", but, I'm over that). With the technical position of being on top of the division (Thank you, Ditka, Lions, Refs, whoever), the Bears are right where they always thought they'd be.

Kevin Seifert took the time yesterday afternoon to lay down some of the historical stats regarding teams that have started off 2-0. So what does that mean for the Bears?

Essentially, nothing. But it's a fun number to know. As Seifert puts it:

Teams that have started 2-0 have made the playoffs 64.1 percent of the time (107 of 167).

Teams that have started 1-1 have made the playoffs 40.7 percent of the time (111 of 273).

Teams that have started 0-2 have made the playoffs 13.0 percent of the time (22 of 169).

So there you have it. The Bears have a 64.1 percent chance of making the playoffs. Ok, so not really. There are way too many factors to say that with any true confidence. However, the trend is your friend, so let's hang our hat on that for the day.

Taking a look around the league, then, what kind of company are the Bears in? The following teams are all 2-0 right now:

Chicago Bears
Miami Dolphins
Pittsburgh Steelers
Houston Texans
Kansas City Chiefs
Green Bay Packers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers

If 64.1 percent holds true, we can say with a general degree of certainty, that two or three of these teams probably won't make the playoffs. But which ones will it be? The likely picks would be the Chiefs and the Bucs, but they're playing in two divisions that are generally built to allow them the chance to fight for a spot in the conversation, provided the heavyweights (Chargers and Saints, respectively) don't quite play up to snuff.

Now that we're through Week 2, I'll make the bold prediction that the Wild Card slots will come out of the NFC North and the NFC East. (I know, a shocker.) That makes this coming Prime Time game against the Packers even more crucial. It won't be the end of the season, but there's a lot on the line. #1 in the division. 2 Division Wins. 3 Conference Wins. And the always important bragging rights over the Packers.

We all know that this team doesn't exactly have the best primetime efforts. For every Sunday Night win against the Colts, there's a Thursday night against the 49ers. The Packers can't be discounted, and the Bears will have their hands full. I'm hard pressed to say you can have a defining game in Week 3 of the NFL season, but this is one of the closest you'll be able to. It can most definitely help set the tone for the rest of the season.

We'll be bring you a lot of great looks at this matchup over the week, and we look forward to seeing what you guys have to say, as well. Let's take Victory Monday to bask in the glow of a big win against the Cowboys, and tomorrow we'll start gearing up for a battle with the bitterly respected Green Bay Packers.

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2009 Denver Broncos

6-0 to watching the playoffs on the couch

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by David Taylor on Sep 20, 2010 11:06 AM CDT reply actions

Absolutely

So true its a lil premature to label our Bears a playoff team, but we will take 2-0 over 0-2 anyday of the week.

by Dozjah on Sep 20, 2010 11:13 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions

Side note on Broncos: Orton looks GOOD!

He is playing in control and looks really good with limited weapons on that team. Good offensive line and a pretty good offensive system is a big part, but his leadership looks key to that good start in Denver.

Semper Fi
PREDICTION for 2010-2011 NFL Season: "The England Patriots will finish 8-8 plus or minus 1" ~8/13/10 1230p

by ChicagoMarine on Sep 20, 2010 11:19 AM CDT up reply actions

Orton is mediocre

remember how he looked in ‘07…well put that on a loop, and you’ll have that for his whole career.

by jimribs on Sep 20, 2010 11:20 AM CDT up reply actions

I remember how badly underskilled that offensive team that Angelo surrounded him with.

With an offensive line that was void of talent and youth and a cadre of receivers who were either a.) too old (i.e.— Marty Booker) or b.) too inexperienced, I say he did good with what he had.

Let’s not forget Turdner was coordinator.

The Bears were the top point getting offense in 7 weeks before the Orton injury as well.

Semper Fi
PREDICTION for 2010-2011 NFL Season: "The England Patriots will finish 8-8 plus or minus 1" ~8/13/10 1230p

by ChicagoMarine on Sep 20, 2010 11:24 AM CDT up reply actions

I think you're referring to 2008 but your point is a good one.

Orton is a good QB, he doesn’t have the physical tools of Cutler, but that doesn’t make him a bad QB. Also, when you consider his developmental years were under some really bad coaches, he’s actually performed pretty well.

by BearFan611 on Sep 20, 2010 12:58 PM CDT up reply actions

Although we lost 3 really close games early on in the season,

I still think we could’ve had a good shot at the playoffs had Orton not gotten injured.

"Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win."

by GriggsBriggs on Sep 20, 2010 4:46 PM CDT up reply actions

This ^

Semper Fi
PREDICTION for 2010-2011 NFL Season: "The England Patriots will finish 8-8 plus or minus 1" ~8/13/10 1230p

by ChicagoMarine on Sep 21, 2010 2:23 PM CDT up reply actions

+1

People forget how little Orton had surrounding him. Bad line, inexperienced and/or over-the-hill wideouts, and Ron “the Douche” Turner calling the plays. Orton did well. Not spectacular. But well enough to hold it together and even make a few plays along the way. Let’s not forget that the defense wasn’t exactly doing him any favors, either.

Orton is never HOF bound, no matter the pieces around him, but most QBs aren’t. Orton is average, which is under-rated today. He isn’t the best, but he is certainly adequate and is better than a lot of teams are starting. He’s not Denver’s biggest problem, that is for sure.

in•san•i•ty \in-ˈsa-nə-tē\ noun
1 : The practice of repeating the same action while expecting different results.

by Timothy Hockemeyer on Sep 22, 2010 7:54 AM CDT up reply actions

He's played versus

two bad defenses in Jax and Seattle. Let’s see how he performs versus tough defenses.

"They form a huddle- Whisper like they want trouble- I melt the ice grills into rainwater puddles- Make the proud-hearted leave on the humble- Black steel in the hour- Assemble my skill form my power" - Mos Def

by propheteer on Sep 20, 2010 11:32 AM CDT up reply actions

A win is a win, Bears fan.

You play who is on the schedule and if they stink— your play should reflect that. Packers fans are saying that about the victory we got over the Lions in week 1 (i.e.— “The Lions stink and you barely won!”)

Semper Fi
PREDICTION for 2010-2011 NFL Season: "The England Patriots will finish 8-8 plus or minus 1" ~8/13/10 1230p

by ChicagoMarine on Sep 20, 2010 11:49 AM CDT up reply actions

He looks good early

Thats not new.

Thats his MO, back to Purdue.

Nobody who ever gave his best regretted it. -George Halas

by Allie on Sep 20, 2010 11:40 AM CDT up reply actions

Orton sucks

Broncos suck.
Coach McNugget sucks.
Eddie Royal sucks.
The city of Denver sucks.

~>PrettyBoISwagg* ' ~^Ayyyeee^~ BakK PaKk ~_PaKk_~ Boogie

by suckmyditka on Sep 20, 2010 1:55 PM CDT up reply actions

No he doesn't.

Not too bad probably.
Too early to tell.
No he doesn’t.
No it doesn’t.

by Dane Noble on Sep 20, 2010 2:53 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

This is my version

Orton is average (sometimes better than average).
Broncos are average.
McDaniels is brash and arrogant, but the jury is still out.
Royal is good.
Denver is a great sports town surrounded by some of the best outdoors around (just ask me!).

by propheteer on Sep 20, 2010 3:16 PM CDT up reply actions

Wow I forgot some fans can't let anyone else win

If Ditka played for another team, you’d boo him too probably.

I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.

by Topher Doll on Sep 20, 2010 4:55 PM CDT up reply actions

Ditka DID play for another team....two, actually.

He left Chicago to play for the Eagles, and then the Cowgirls. In fact, he only played half his career here in Chicago, and coached only 11 of his 23 coaching seasons here.

in•san•i•ty \in-ˈsa-nə-tē\ noun
1 : The practice of repeating the same action while expecting different results.

by Timothy Hockemeyer on Sep 20, 2010 8:27 PM CDT up reply actions

Get'em!

by Bear Lovin 21 on Sep 20, 2010 11:06 PM CDT up reply actions

Exactly, so why root for Ditka

If he played for another team? Someone like Orton who never insulted the Bears left because he had to, not because he didn’t like the Bears.

I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.

by Topher Doll on Sep 21, 2010 9:12 AM CDT up reply actions

Kyle Orton (for some) will always be tied to the Rex Grossman Chronicles.

Along with Brian Griese.

Semper Fi
PREDICTION for 2010-2011 NFL Season: "The England Patriots will finish 8-8 plus or minus 1" ~8/13/10 1230p

by ChicagoMarine on Sep 21, 2010 2:26 PM CDT up reply actions

Agreed, an strange time in Chicago

Possibly the best defense we had in a while, and our passing game had to be in transition, sad thing.

I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.

by Topher Doll on Sep 22, 2010 1:31 AM CDT up reply actions

True....

though I dont believe SMD’s post has anything to do with that. Think back to when the Donkey Lovers were trolling our threads. Hence the Denver sucks, McNugget sucks, Eddie Royal sucks and Bronco’s suck parts of the rant.

either way, I’ll always have a soft spot for neckbeard. truly a class act and he help Chicago through some tough times, even if only by being careful. He’s doing the same for Denver now.

in•san•i•ty \in-ˈsa-nə-tē\ noun
1 : The practice of repeating the same action while expecting different results.

by Timothy Hockemeyer on Sep 22, 2010 7:45 AM CDT up reply actions

First.....

Because he’s Ditka. Nothing more needs to be said on that.

Second…..I like and actively root for Kyle Orton. Always have. But you said if Ditka played for another team, that suckmyditka would boo him too. Obviously that is incorrect, as Ditka played and coached as much for other teams as he did here, yet SMD is a Ditka fan.

Third……I think you have missed a lot more of this epic and ongoing battle than you realize. SMDs post has far less to do with Orton, and far more to do with all the trash talking that Donkey Lovers everywhere were doing after the trade, and after the end of last season about how they got the better end of the deal and Cutler was a sucky little cry-baby. With that context, SMD’d post should now make infinitely more sense. Hope that helps, and you are welcome.

in•san•i•ty \in-ˈsa-nə-tē\ noun
1 : The practice of repeating the same action while expecting different results.

by Timothy Hockemeyer on Sep 22, 2010 7:42 AM CDT up reply actions

Also add

the 03 vikings that also started out 6 – 0….and the 07 lions that were 6 – 2 at one point and finished 7- 9 thus missing the playoffs…..

Nice right now just have to keep it up…..

It was very boring. Followed by a short period of terrifying….

- Jay Cutler on getting ready for Sunday's with the current offensive line

by CloudyFuture on Sep 20, 2010 11:27 AM CDT up reply actions

I relished in their late season misery

more than your average Joe.

by propheteer on Sep 20, 2010 11:31 AM CDT up reply actions

After all those ~~arsewipes~~ Broncos fans came over to stir up trouble, schadenfreude never felt so good.

"44 years of football history and nothing to show for it. I wish I wasn’t banned at the Norseman.." - tfrabotta
"Fellas, what are they, unblockable? Is that the '85 Bears over there?" - Tom Coughlin, Giants '06 training camp
~~~ Check my profile for links for SB20 and America's Game: '85 Bears ~~~

by Spongie on Sep 20, 2010 11:40 AM CDT up reply actions

That

and the fact I live in Colorado. Every turn I heard from some random yahoo about how Cutler sucked and will continue to suck cause he’s reckless.

by propheteer on Sep 20, 2010 12:02 PM CDT up reply actions

Spurned fans are the most vicious.

by BigGeorgeTX on Sep 20, 2010 2:26 PM CDT up reply actions

Bears were 2-0 in 2003

And lost the next 8 games

I feel great now, and suddenly the whole NFC east looks more suspect then the bengals team( hope you all get the joke)

Green bay is tough our line gets no break time to slow down clay matthews but if we can contain ware we can handle clay Matthews

Packers like the cowboys can be beaten through the air
Can’t wait!!!
It’s packer week!

by Bear Lovin 21 on Sep 20, 2010 12:58 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions

Haha, cuz they're criminals.

If I did what I love for a living, what would I do in my free time?

Writer at windycitygridiron.com {-/-} http://www.twitter.com/kdoggers

by Kev H on Sep 20, 2010 1:08 PM CDT up reply actions

Hahaha that's a fat joke

~>PrettyBoISwagg* ' ~^Ayyyeee^~ BakK PaKk ~_PaKk_~ Boogie

by suckmyditka on Sep 20, 2010 1:57 PM CDT up reply actions

Ware>Matthews

by propheteer on Sep 20, 2010 3:12 PM CDT up reply actions

6-2

Anyone else remember the 6-2 Rashan Salaam\/ Dave Wanstedt Chicago bears that started 6-2 then tanked their way out of the playoffs?

by MrPants on Sep 20, 2010 3:50 PM CDT up reply actions

So....

the Denver Broncos are amongst the 35.9% of 2-0 teams that don’t generally make the playoffs. The point isn’t that 2-0 is a ticket to the playoffs guaranteed. The point is that a 2-0 team is twice as likely to go to the playoffs as they are to watch them from home, more than 60% more likely to play in the post season than a 1-1 team and almost 5 times more likely to advance than an 0-2 team.

It’s not about guarantees, it’s about likelihood. And it’s definitely a good sign.

in•san•i•ty \in-ˈsa-nə-tē\ noun
1 : The practice of repeating the same action while expecting different results.

by Timothy Hockemeyer on Sep 20, 2010 8:32 PM CDT up reply actions

Of course it's not.

And I wonder what the percentage is of 6-0 teams making the playoffs versus not. My point is simply that we shouldn’t get too cocky and overly optimistic, especially this early in the season. 2-0 is a great start, no doubt, but there’s a lot of good teams left to play and our schedule is not an easy one this year (especially towards the end).

-------
www.cheekymonkeyart.com | facebook.com/cheekymonkeyart | twitter.com/cheekymonkeyart

by David Taylor on Sep 21, 2010 9:31 AM CDT up reply actions

Wow. Dude you dominated this thread with one observation.

Well done.

If you can't laugh at yourself you must not be very funny.
I remain a pessimistically hopeful Bears fan.

by Just Dave on Sep 21, 2010 9:17 PM CDT up reply actions

And my point is....

that we also should be a bit more optimistic than we have been. The team is two-and-oh. I don’t think anyone is getting cocky. I haven’t seen it. In fact, I think the mood is still extremely cautious, as it should be.

But why you gotta go poop on someone else’s dreams, cheeky monkey? ;)

I disagree on the SOS, though. I have been disagreeing with the SOS since the schedule was released.

The Cowboys are who we thought they were. So are the Giants, the Vikings, the Jets, the Dolphins and the Redskins. And who did we think they were, you ask? Beatable and certainly not elite. Can they beat us? Of course. But we can beat them, too.

The Lions are who we thought they were. So are the Bills, the Panthers and the Seahawks. They are some of the worst teams in the league, and for all of Detroit’s improvements, they are still oh-and-two. can these teams beat us? Yep. But not likely. I know, I know. Jump p and down and scream about “the catch” and a stolen or lucky victory. Then I’ll jump up and down and scream about “the phantom TD” and 5 turnovers that won’t likely occur again, and the fact that without turnovers to help, Detroit couldn’t stop our offense from moving the ball, and without turnovers or the soft zone, Detroit couldn’t move the ball against our defense. The win wasn’t the fluke. The turnovers were. That being said, the Lions (who will likely still be charged up about “the catch” when we face them again) stand the best chance of beating us. First because it’s a divisional game, and second, because i still believe they are trending upwards. Seahawks behind them.

The Patriots, both GB games and Philly are the only games that really scare me. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying we only lose 4 games this season. I ain’t that drunk on kool-aid. Those are just the games I see us having the least chance of winning. Brady eats the cover-2 for breakfast, and GB is just scary. Philly is interesting and kinda an enigma. Who will be the QB by the time the Bears play, or will it be some sort of weird two headed monster?

All that being said, I’m still not sure I see more than 9-7 in our future. Especially considering that we have a highly offensive line and a putrid rushing game. With this many question marks, i can see anything from 7-9 to 12-4, but I’m, trending towards 9-7/10-6 right now. the schedule is just not as tough as advertised. That’s what happens when SOS is based of last year.

in•san•i•ty \in-ˈsa-nə-tē\ noun
1 : The practice of repeating the same action while expecting different results.

by Timothy Hockemeyer on Sep 22, 2010 7:32 AM CDT up reply actions

And....

where’s my O.S.S.?

Answers. Demand them. Now.

in•san•i•ty \in-ˈsa-nə-tē\ noun
1 : The practice of repeating the same action while expecting different results.

by Timothy Hockemeyer on Sep 22, 2010 7:32 AM CDT up reply actions

I know its only week three but.....

A win over the Packers on MNF would be a great spring board to a very good season.

by Dozjah on Sep 20, 2010 11:10 AM CDT via mobile reply actions

Football Outsiders Almanac has the Bears going to the playoffs this year...

… With a 9 win season.

They are usually on pont with most of their assessments and credit Mike Martz’s offensive system as being the difference between last year and this current campaign.

Semper Fi
PREDICTION for 2010-2011 NFL Season: "The England Patriots will finish 8-8 plus or minus 1" ~8/13/10 1230p

by ChicagoMarine on Sep 20, 2010 11:21 AM CDT reply actions

Some Notes (per Zaidman tweets):

- The Bears haven’t given up a second half touchdown this year

- Bears are 2-0 for first time since 2006 season

- Cowboys rushed for 4.7 yards per carry last week. They had just 1.8 yards per carry vs. Bears.

- The Bears defense is holding opponents to just 1.4 yards per carry through 2 games.

- Jay Cutler is now 17-0 when he has a passer rating of 100+

- Jay Cutlers last 4 games going back to last season:

86 / 135; 64% comp %, 1,198 yards; 13 TDs – 2 INTs

Also thought I heard that according to waddle and silvy they believe that roughly 25,000 Bear fans were in attendance yesterday…..

It was very boring. Followed by a short period of terrifying….

- Jay Cutler on getting ready for Sunday's with the current offensive line

by CloudyFuture on Sep 20, 2010 11:47 AM CDT reply actions

FANS

you could hear the bears fans throughout the game. bears D can stop the run but we need to start the running game so we can eat up the clock when its needed. GO BEARS

by stepeo on Sep 20, 2010 12:18 PM CDT up reply actions

The Bears run D looks real good with Urlacher back in the middle

In the 8th grade Mike Ditka won his school's Science Fair with a model of a working volcano. There were 17 other working volcano's made that day, but only one named Mount Ditka.

by Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. on Sep 20, 2010 12:34 PM CDT up reply actions

Knock on wood; Urlacher looks as good as he's ever been

by rdent4hof on Sep 20, 2010 12:39 PM CDT up reply actions

Agreed re Url

With reference to KevH’s article – Also, (obviously) wins against divisional foes are the most important, so beating the Packers is huge in thie upcoming game and since they are 2-0 also. The trend of 2-0 teams is pretty interesting to note. There is always a statistical anomaly, and the 2009 Broncos were definitely one. The exception that proves the rule, if you will.

"Stay thirsty, my friend."

by Maelvampyre on Sep 20, 2010 1:05 PM CDT up reply actions

You really

don’t have to include the H. FYI.

If I did what I love for a living, what would I do in my free time?

Writer at windycitygridiron.com {-/-} http://www.twitter.com/kdoggers

by Kev H on Sep 20, 2010 1:15 PM CDT up reply actions

KevH

~>PrettyBoISwagg* ' ~^Ayyyeee^~ BakK PaKk ~_PaKk_~ Boogie

by suckmyditka on Sep 20, 2010 2:01 PM CDT up reply actions 3 recs

I'd like to point out

that Mac and Spiegs are discussing this very topic on the score right now.

If I did what I love for a living, what would I do in my free time?

Writer at windycitygridiron.com {-/-} http://www.twitter.com/kdoggers

by Kev H on Sep 20, 2010 12:17 PM CDT reply actions

You beat them to it

Throw a patend on that bitch and get you some compensation !

~>PrettyBoISwagg* ' ~^Ayyyeee^~ BakK PaKk ~_PaKk_~ Boogie

by suckmyditka on Sep 20, 2010 2:01 PM CDT up reply actions

I just wanna hear everones opinion on our Beloved Bears having the top rated QB in the NFL!!

throw in a 2-0 record, and we could make a run, folks….Preseason!!! We dont need no stinking preseason!!

by kernal316 on Sep 20, 2010 12:54 PM CDT reply actions

For those of you demanding

props from the media.

download and listen to ESPN’s Football Today podcast. Tucker praises Cutler and the Bears to the skies.

Nobody who ever gave his best regretted it. -George Halas

by Allie on Sep 20, 2010 1:20 PM CDT reply actions

2009 vs. 2010

To me, the first 2 games this year have been very similar. Last year, the first game was marred by turnovers and despite playing great the whole day, the D gets burned late in the game on a big play. (Fortunately, the outcome was a bit different this year). The second game was played brilliantly by the Bears against a team that nobody had the Bears beating.

The schedule doesn’t get any easier for the Bears for the rest of the season so the Bears have to bring their “A” game week in and week out. I hope they can consistently bring the effort they had yesterday. If they can, the Bears will be contenders.

by McRipper on Sep 20, 2010 2:11 PM CDT reply actions

2-0 start

Would be great to make another statement and play well vs. GB. I thnk to prove we’re for real, we need a blowout in this one, something to show the whole country the Bears are back and a force in the NFC.

by walterfan34 on Sep 20, 2010 2:33 PM CDT reply actions

Orton is playing well in Denver

And it looks like the Bears are vastly improved over last year. Gotta win the next game against the Packers though.

Lifelong Arizona Cardinals/Chicago Bears fan [I have always lived in Arizona, dad is from Chicago].

I can't stand fair-weather/bandwagon fans, stick with your team, throughout the good and the bad. And don't switch to whichever team wins the Super Bowl each year.

by JoeCB1991 on Sep 20, 2010 3:56 PM CDT reply actions

1989 - the number another summer (get down)

or fall, for that matter. Bears started 4-0 and ended the season stinking ass at 6-10. Although, granted, that was the year they shoulda woulda coulda won the Instant Replay game of ‘Majik man’ and shoulda woulda coulda beat the Browns easily.

Anyway, anytime I hear that stat about 2-0 teams making the playoffs majority of time, I think about how stats usually run across the grain for Bears fans, we’re always the exception.

I'm not so mean. I wouldn't ever go out to hurt anybody deliberately - unless it was, you know, important, like a league game or something. - Dick Butkus

by iowaBear on Sep 20, 2010 7:17 PM CDT reply actions

Interesting thought......

I don’t have time tonight, but I’ll try and get back to you tomorrow on how often the Bears made the playoffs based on 2-0, 1-1 and 0-2. It may be interesting to see if the Bears hold true to the league average, or if they run counterintuitive to the norm.

in•san•i•ty \in-ˈsa-nə-tē\ noun
1 : The practice of repeating the same action while expecting different results.

by Timothy Hockemeyer on Sep 20, 2010 8:37 PM CDT up reply actions

Lovie update:

*On Frank Omiyale: “You can make a case for a guy like Frank Omiyale being the MVP of the game. Playing one position (right tackle), getting all the practice looks at it, then having to move over. He moved over to the left-tackle position and did a great job.”

by propheteer on Sep 20, 2010 10:05 PM CDT reply actions