ESPN's NFC North Blog Post: Week 1 Lions vs Bears

Or is it a “any given Sunday” type of thing.

agreeing or disagreeing with you on Cutler. I’m disagreeing with you on Stafford. That team has made a lot of great strides. While Stafford will help the offense, the defense was the single biggest reason the Lions have won only 2 games in the last 2 years. While the offense has been bad for the past 2 years, the Defense has been ranked 32nd in the league in points allowed and in yards allowed the past three season in a row, haven’t been ranked higher than 28th since 2005, and haven’t ranked higher than 20th in both since ’00.

You’re talking about a team that has allowed 1011 points in the last 2 seasons. By contrast, our bad defense has allowed 735 points in the same span, and those seasons were the 7th and 4th worst scoring allowed efforts in the Bears 90 seasons of play.

The Lions have allowed an average of 411 points a season (25.7 points per game) over the past decade. They have allowed less than 300 points only 4 times since the 16-game-era began. That 4 out of 32 seasons while allowing over 400 points 7 times in the same period (5 of which were in the last decade). The only time the Lions have allowed under 200 points was in the strike-shorted 1982 season when they gave up 176 points in 9 games.

Compare that to the Bears, who averaged 314 points per season (19.7 points per game) over the past decade (and that’s while putting up the 2nd, 6th, 10th, 11th, 12, 13th and 18th worst defensive seasons in Bears history in that time frame. The Bears have allowed 400 points once (in ‘97), have allowed fewer than 300 points 15 times in the 16-game-era, and have allowed less than 200 3 times (’82 strike season, ’85 and ’86)

Detroit’s record over the last 10 years? 42 and 118. Chicago’s? 81 and 79. But, I can already hear some typing in reply that offense’s have something to say about wins and losses, too. And you’re right. But here’s where it get interesting. Detroit’s offenses were nothing special, recording an average of 18 points per game while Chicago recorded all of 19. A whopping point difference between the two. Detroit’s offense has been consistently bad, while Chicago has had short but high peaks surrounded by wide and very deep valleys. Effectively 2008 and 2006 are the only things keeping Chicago higher in the average. Without those years, Chicago averaged 17.7 points per game to Detroit’s 18.3. So Chicago and Detroit have both had amongst the worst offenses in the league over the past decade, yet Chicago (.506) has almost double the winning percentage of Detroit (.263).

All of that just to say that the Lions can still improve if Stafford is just a adequate game manager ala Kyle Oton in 2005, and They can still suck even if Stafford is the next big thing, much like Peyton Manning in ’01, Ken Anderson in ’79 or Dan Fouts in ’86 to name a few…..

I’m saying that the Lions record can definitely improve with great play by Stafford, but Stafford can play great and the Lions could still win 1 game if the Defense continues it’s trend. And Stafford could suck ass, but if that defense steps up, they could carry the team like the ’05 Bears (or the ’93 Bears if you prefer, who had the #3 defense, but the 24th ranked offense and finished 7-9).

On Jay, I agree with you, actually. I like Jay (a lot, but then I liked Rex, too), but he hasn’t proven anything other than that he has a huge arm. Hell, the Bears scored 3 more points per game with Orton than they did with Cutler. I’m in “show me” mode with QBs ever since Rex…………….