Extrapolated Stats: Week 4

by David Taylor on Oct 5, 2011 10:01 AM CDT in Notes

TEAM STATISTICS
	Bears	Opponents
TOTAL FIRST DOWNS	248 [-]	336 [+]
THIRD DOWN CONVERSIONS	56/200 (0.280) [+]	76/220 (0.345) [-]
RUN/PASS RATIO	328/524 [+/-]	392/672 [+/+]
RUSHING YARDS	1540 [+]	1988 [+]
PASSING YARDS	3384 [-]	4824 [+]
SACKS	32 [-]	60 [-]
TURNOVERS	20 [-]	28 [-]

[+] and [-] indicate a change in the previous week's numbers.

Jump with me to see individual player statistics, and use the comments section to tell us what pops out at you.

PASSING STATISTICS
Player	Comp	Att	%	Yds	TD	%	INT	%	Rating
Jay Cutler	284 [-]	524 [-]	54.2 [-]	3840 [-]	20 [-]	3.8 [-]	16	3.1 [+]	77.8 [-]

RUSHING STATISTICS
Player	Att	Yds	Yds/Att	FUM	TD
Matt Forte	240 [+]	1296 [+]	5.4 [+]	0	4 [+]
Kahlil Bell	44 [-]	92 [-]	2.1	0	0
Jay Cutler	20 [-]	100 [-]	5.0 [-]	4 [-]	0
Marion Barber	20 [+]	68 [+]	3.4 [+]	0	4 [+]
End Around	4 [-]	-16 [-]	-4.0	0	0

RECEIVING STATISTICS
Player	Rec	Yds	Yds/Rec	TD
Matt Forte	104 [-]	1240 [-]	11.9 [-]	4 [-]
Johnny Knox	48	948 [-]	19.8 [-]	0
Dane Sanzenbacher	40 [-]	328 [-]	8.2 [+]	8 [-]
Devin Hester	28 [-]	556 [-]	19.9	0
Roy Williams	20 [-]	280 [-]	14.0 [+]	0
Kellen Davis	12 [-]	220 [-]	18.3	4 [-]
Earl Bennett	12 [-]	80 [-]	6.7	0
Sam Hurd	8 [-]	120 [-]	15.0	0
Matt Spaeth	8 [-]	14 [-]	3.5	4 [-]
Tyler Clutts	4 [-]	40 [-]	10.0	0

DEFENSE STATISTICS
Player	Solo	Assist	Sack	FF	FR	TD	INT	TD
Lance Briggs	108 [-]	36 [+]	0.0	4 [-]	0	0	0	0
Brian Urlacher	88 [+]	24 [-]	0.0	0	4 [-]	4 [-]	8 [-]	0
Tim Jennings	88 [-]	20 [-]	0.0	0	0	0	0	0
Charles Tillman	72 [+]	20 [-]	0.0	8 [-]	4 [-]	0	0	0
Major Wright	54 [+]	12 [+]	0.0	0	0	0	0	0
D.J. Moore	44 [-]	28 [-]	0.0	0	0	0	4 [+]	4 [+]
Craig Steltz	40 [-]	12 [-]	0.0	0	0	0	0	0
Brandon Meriweather	36 [+]	28 [-]	0.0	0	0	0	0	0
Nick Roach	36 [-]	8 [-]	0.0	0	0	0	0	0
Israel Idonije	32	28 [-]	4.0 [-]	0	0	0	0	0
Julius Peppers	28 [+]	8 [+]	8.0 [-]	4 [-]	8 [-]	0	0	0
Henry Melton	28 [-]	4 [-]	12.0 [-]	0	0	0	0	0
Amobi Okoye	24 [+]	12 [+]	4.0 [-]	0	0	0	0	0
Anthony Adams	20 [+]	4 [-]	0.0	0	0	0	0	0
Corey Graham	16 [-]	8 [-]	0.0	0	0	0	0	0
Brian Iwuh	16 [+]	0	0.0	0	0	0	0	0
Nick Reed	12 [+]	0	0.0	0	0	0	0	0
Dom DiCicco	8 [-]	4 [-]	0.0	0	0	0	0	0
Chris Harris	8 [-]	4 [-]	0.0	0	0	0	0	0
Zack Bowman	8 [-]	0	0.0	0	0	0	0	0
Roy Williams	8 [-]	0	0.0	0	0	0	0	0
Winston Venable	8 [-]	0	0.0	0	0	0	0	0
Matt Toeaina	4 [+]	16 [-]	0.0	0	0	0	0	0
Chris Conte	4 [-]	0	0.0	0	0	0	0	0
Roberto Garza	4 [-]	0	0.0	0	0	0	0	0
Johnny Knox	4 [+]	0	0.0	0	0	0	0	0

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1985 – Roger Craig – 1050 yards rushing yards – 1016 yards receiving
1999 – Marshall Faulk – 1381 yards rushing – 1048 yards receiving

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by David Taylor on Oct 5, 2011 10:04 AM CDT reply actions

2011 – David Taylor – 145 posts – 7333 comments

Above all; keep 'em guessing, never let them lose their sense of confusion.

by Just Dave on Oct 5, 2011 11:33 AM CDT up reply actions

You should see my wallet...

It’s the one that says bad mother f*cker on it.

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by David Taylor on Oct 5, 2011 12:26 PM CDT up reply actions

You talk to Marcellus yet?

Steven Hawking was paralysed after Mr. T pitied him so hard he was hurled through the air and crashed into an orphanage, killing 50.

by Ditkavsworld on Oct 5, 2011 1:31 PM CDT up reply actions

Yeah as i was reading this i was kind of thinking

the only thing that seems odd about Forte’s stats aren’t the amazing amount of yards..It’s the low amount of TDs. He will get more TDs, but i could definitely see him getting somewhere close to 1200 rushing/1200 rec

"I'm too drunk to taste this chicken" - Colonel Sanders

It's all about THE []_[] baby!!!

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by suckmyditka on Oct 5, 2011 11:47 AM CDT up reply actions

I don't know whether to be glad your sacks/game are up going into this Monday

Or horrified that Cutler must have done something to Martz and the O-Line to get them to work together on killing him.

[...]when Giants coach Steve Owen, a certified defensive genius, was asked how he planned to stop Nagurski, he said: "With a shotgun, as he’s leaving the dressing room."

by NobodySpecial on Oct 5, 2011 11:46 AM CDT reply actions

Cutler's projections are looking about right

Forte’s receiving numbers continue to be ridiculous. 80+ yards receiving in 3 of 4 games. I still think he’ll end up around 800-900 yards receiving, but a 1000/1000 season certainly appears to be a possibility.

by SouthernCub on Oct 5, 2011 11:49 AM CDT reply actions

I think Cutler will finish better

In the ratio stats particularly. His completion percentage should end up close to 60, and I’m thinking his QBR ends up in the 80 to 85 range.

I also predict at least 25 TD, and a TD:INT ratio much better than the 5:4 he’s on pace for. 5:3, at least, seems more realistic.

The run was nonexistent through 2 games. I really doubt the Bears will hold themselves to 10 runs a game ever again, or be held to around 0 yards as they were against GB. That should sustain more drives and give Jay a lot more time in the red zone.

by dm1982 on Oct 5, 2011 1:52 PM CDT up reply actions

Don't Ever Talk QBR Here. Ever.

When I played I was a triple threat.... Stumble.... Fumble.....Grumble....

by scespy12 on Oct 5, 2011 11:22 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions

Wrong QBR.

I think dm1982 is referring to the classic passer rating, and not whatever thing ESPiN spat up with their breakfast.

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by Steven Schweickert on Oct 5, 2011 11:37 PM CDT up reply actions

That's just sad...

Even with the insane running totals we put up this weekend, we’re STILL at a 38.5/61.5 R/P ratio. I’d like to see that creep closer to 45/55 by the time the season’s over. This team works best when Matt Forte has the football in his hands.

by Doshi on Oct 5, 2011 12:09 PM CDT reply actions

Fixed this

This team works best when ~~Matt Forte~~Devin Hester has the football in his hands on returns

Took the 'G' out your waffle, all you got left is your Ego.

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by Kev H on Oct 5, 2011 2:45 PM CDT up reply actions

I would be surprised if Forte doesn't pick up 1000/1000

Or at least 1000 rushing and 800+ receiving. As long as he stays healthy.

It’s nearly impossible for a defense to draw up a game plan that would choke off a RB’s ability to pile up receptions and passing yards, especially in an offense like this where Cutler has to go to Forte so much, and where Forte has such a great skillset in the passing game.

Other than Forte… and Knox, who is pretty much on pace to duplicate last season, the receiving stats look sad. Though I don’t see Knox keeping up that pace. I predict that Williams steps up and Sanz starts getting targeted more. I also think Hester and Davis will eat into Knox’s final numbers. Knox’s de facto #1 status will gradually fade.

What alarms me most is this team’s inability to convert third downs.

I bet if Olsen were still around, through 4 games the Bears O would have 12 to 15 additional completions/receptions, 200 additional passing yards, and an extra 8 or so third downs converted.

by dm1982 on Oct 5, 2011 1:35 PM CDT reply actions

I think Cutler's completion percentage improves as long as his receivers quit dropping balls and he handles the pressure a little bit better.

I’m calling 25 TD’s to 15 INT’s with a completion percentage of 61% and a QB rating of 86.

by frenchbears113 on Oct 5, 2011 1:54 PM CDT reply actions

But how will he do in the Dilfer QB rating system?

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by David Taylor on Oct 5, 2011 2:00 PM CDT up reply actions

Negative 5 billion! And that's BEFORE the inclusion of douche percentage into the system.

by frenchbears113 on Oct 5, 2011 2:18 PM CDT up reply actions

Spot on

Just about mirrors my prediction above.

The problem with drops will sort itself out especially when they start targeting the right guys more and the wrong guys less. The competition the rest of the way is not as harsh as what they’ve seen so far, and Jay is always more than capable of putting up monster numbers on any given Sunday. He’s kinda cold right now. He should heat up and have numbers closer in line with his career, maybe a smidge better.

Even though he’s looked really sloppy the last couple games, I think last season and this season he’s showing a gradual increase with “knowledge of the game,” that is, he doesn’t appear to be making as many mistakes as he may have in the past. With a lesser QB (think Grossman), the Carolina game could have easily been lost due to one very, very bad decision at the wrong time.

by dm1982 on Oct 5, 2011 2:01 PM CDT up reply actions

RIght

No more 5-pick games from Jay

by NorthSideBearsFan on Oct 5, 2011 2:25 PM CDT up reply actions

Doesn't help that our best WR took a cannonball to the chest and is likely out until the bye week...

by Doshi on Oct 5, 2011 3:06 PM CDT up reply actions

And remember, seasons are played in quarters...

What the hell happened to that line anyway?

So after one quarter, the Bears are currently 2 games out of even a WC spot (by quick glance it looks like they’d lose tiebreakers to the 3-1 teams in WC contention).

Assuming NO, GB (sorry, Lions fans), SF and NY win their divisions, that leaves Det, Atl, Was, Dal and TB as the likely WC contenders along with Chicago. I think the Bears are as good as any team in that group, and probably better than most. Being paired against the AFC Worst and having the Vikes around makes the NFC North look like a solid contender to have 3 playoff teams.

Off topic (and early to be projecting the postseason), but just a thought…

by dm1982 on Oct 5, 2011 2:22 PM CDT reply actions

It looks even better for next year.

This year we get the NFC South and the AFC Worst.

Next year we get the NFC Worst and the AFC South.

Methinks next year would be easier.

by Doshi on Oct 5, 2011 3:09 PM CDT up reply actions

AFC South could be the best division in the AFC next season

Colts will have Manning back and healthy, most likely, and the Titans and Texans are both legit teams. Currently I’d put them in the top 4 in the AFC along with the Pats and Ravens.

Jacksonville has some decent young talent…

But having the NFC South is tough. Nice to be 2-1 against them so far.

by dm1982 on Oct 5, 2011 3:39 PM CDT up reply actions

This year, there's every possibility for at least one of the NFC North teams to go 2-2 or worse against the AFC West.

Next year, any team that does NOT go 3-1 at worst against the NFC West will almost automatically be considered a BAD team. I do pity the team that has to play away at San Fran and Seattle next year, though…

by Doshi on Oct 6, 2011 9:24 AM CDT up reply actions

DJ Moore with 4 TDs?

Nice!

by NorthSideBearsFan on Oct 5, 2011 2:28 PM CDT reply actions

Is it a bad thing

that 6 of top 8 tacklers…
are DBs?

by BOBdaBEAR on Oct 5, 2011 7:59 PM CDT reply actions

yes.

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by David Taylor on Oct 6, 2011 7:38 AM CDT up reply actions

Or to expand...

Opposing teams are on pace to rush the ball 392 times. Of those rushes, 244 of them, or 62% of the time, they have or will get past our defensive linemen. Granted, some may result in a blitzing linebacker or safety stopping them before crossing the line, but still. Whatever the (+/-) is, 62% is still a large ratio.

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by David Taylor on Oct 6, 2011 7:46 AM CDT up reply actions