2011 Chicago Bears Roster Turnover: Quarterback

by Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. on Feb 1, 2011 1:00 PM CST in Roster Analysis

Last year around this time the uncertainty surrounding the NFL labor talks was hanging over free agency. The fact that nothing was agreed upon altered the status of a few Bears free agents. This time the uncertainty surrounding the labor negotiations threaten to wipe out the 2011 season. I can't fathom that actually happening, so it'll be business as usual around here as we get you tuned up for next season.

In this ongoing series I'll take a position by position look at the Chicago Bears roster and give my take on who stays and who goes. I'll also be utilizing some premium content (a must for the stat-driven football fan) from our friends over at Pro Football Focus to help look at the players. Check out Dane's interview with their founder Neil Hornsby. First up the quarterback position.

Jay Cutler - Signed through 2013 - Can you believe some journalists actually speculated that the Bears should part ways with Cutler? Seriously? Dump the best QB Chicago has seen in a long time? Dumb. Cutler will be back for year 2 of the Mike Martz offense and his growing familiarity with it should lead to him having his best year as a pro.

Pro Football Focus had Cutler as their 17th overall rated QB. For perspective Matt Ryan was their #1 QB. Cutler was graded just below #15 Shaun Hill and #16 Tony Romo and just above #18 Chad Henne and #19 Matt Cassel. As strictly a passer he was 19th tied with Michael Vick, and as a runner he was rated 5th. Even though Cutler was sacked a league high 51 times, I find it interesting that PFF only has him being hit 4 times as he threw the ball. This tells me his elusiveness prevented him from taking shots as he maneuvered his way around the pocket.

I was a bit surprised that his worst graded game on 2010 was the Conference Championship game. He even received a negative grade for his historical performance against the Seahawks in the playoff opener. According to PFF he improved from 2009, but in 2008 he was their 3rd highest QB overall. The talent is there.

Todd Collins - free agent - And he's gone. Good luck in all your future endeavors.

With as bad as Collins did in 2010, he wasn't even the worst rated QB according to PFF. Arizona QBs Derek Anderson and Max Hall edged him out for the bottom of the barrel.

Caleb Hanie - restricted free agent - I think Hanie showed enough in the playoff loss that he deserves to be considered for the #2 role. If he had more opportunities than just the playoff game and a handful of snaps in the Carolina game then I could see another team having genuine interest in him, but with such limited film to evaluate I don't see him leaving.

Hanie ended up with a positive overall grade by PFF for his work in 2010. In ranking all QBs that took a snap he was 44th.

Matt Gutierrez - signed a reserve/future contract on 1/18/11 - Gutierrez has 1 thing going for him in my opinion. He spent time in the Patriots organization. I think Bill Belichick has a great eye for talent and the fact he was a Pat tells me he has a shot to stick. It's a long shot, but if he can buckle down and digest the Martz playbook before OTA's he might surprise.

2011 OUTLOOK - The battle for the backup QB job could come down to Hanie and a yet unknown veteran. It all depends on if his quarter of football in 2010 was enough for Martz to feel comfortable. Marc Bulger will again be a free agent, but rumors have him going to Arizona. This isn't a very noteworthy FA class. A few are Kerry Collins, Chad Pennington, or Rex Grossman? No, no, and no.

I'd expect the Bears to bring in at least 1 more young player for some camp reps regardless if a veteran is signed. I'd be comfortable with Cutler, Hanie, then whoever. As long as the money saved by passing on a veteran QB will be allocated to the offensive line.

And even though I expect a young QB to be brought in, it sure as hell better not be a draft pick.

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Just a thought..

but what about taking a look at Alex Smith? He’s been in Martz’s system before, so he’s familiar wit it. He might want too much money but I don’t see anybody going after him to be a #1. Let Smith and Hanie fight it out for the #2.

by boondock_saint812 on Feb 1, 2011 1:20 PM CST reply actions

Smith is a possibility

if the price is right…

If you go in the bathroom, turn off the lights, and say "Da Coach" 5 times while facing the mirror... Ditka will appear and slap the wussy right out of you.

by Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. on Feb 1, 2011 1:22 PM CST up reply actions

Smith signed a 6 year 49 Mill dollar deal in San Fran in 2005

Which means he is still under that deal which means it would cost roughly 8 million to take over the last year of his deal, right? Also San Fran has not cut him so we would have to make a deal to get him. Am I missing something here, is he a FA as soon as the CBA is done?

Unless I am wrong sounds like a lot to pay for a bona fide draft bust. Also does he think if he went elsewhere his career might get back on track? He might not see himself as a number 2 yet and that we dont need.

White Sox fans need not apply.

by Bears-Cubs Bulls on Feb 1, 2011 1:32 PM CST up reply actions

My bad.

Thought he was a FA this year.

by boondock_saint812 on Feb 1, 2011 1:38 PM CST up reply actions

Alex Smith is a free agent

His 6 year deal that he signed in 2005(year 1), taking him through 2006(2), 2007(3), 2008(4), 2009(5), and 2010(6) has expired.

If you go in the bathroom, turn off the lights, and say "Da Coach" 5 times while facing the mirror... Ditka will appear and slap the wussy right out of you.

by Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. on Feb 1, 2011 1:57 PM CST up reply actions

Your right I always mess up those calculations

Anyway, my only problem with Smith I mentioned above, does he still think he can compete for a starting job? Whoever we bring in needs to know they are competing for second or third fiddle to JC, period. There is no QB controversy here, JC is our guy.

White Sox fans need not apply.

by Bears-Cubs Bulls on Feb 1, 2011 2:16 PM CST up reply actions

I'd be cool with it...

Smith needs a fresh start with new scenery…

I can’t see that he’d demand a big salary…and with his familiarity with the Martzfense, he would seem to be a good fit to come in and bring legitimacy to the #2 QB spot…not that Hanie is a bad #2, but I have a feeling that Hanie is going to be long gone if the CBA is finalized before the Draft…

Unreasonable people make life difficult...

by WisBearsFan34 on Feb 1, 2011 2:52 PM CST up reply actions

Good Points

The Sample size is small though I was looking and no QB (including Brady, Favre, Vick.X2, E. Manning, Ryan or Cutler) posted more than 2 TDs Passing against GB in an entire game and even despite the game plan excuse Hanie did that in a quarter, there has to be something major going for him that someone will pick up.

Many that live deserve death. And some die that deserve life. Can you give it to them? Then be not too eager to deal out death in the name of justice, fearing for your own safety. Even the wise cannot see all ends.- JRR Tolkien

by tkiller314 on Feb 1, 2011 3:40 PM CST up reply actions

How about Chad Pennington?

I know he doesnt know the Martz system but he has the veteran check box and knows he is on the downslope of his career. I get the fact that his arm is basically jello at this point but we are talking backup and if we dont do wholesale Oline upgrades this off season get used to seeing the 2nd and 3rd QB in 2011, JC wont survive another season under the durest he played under the past two seasons. JC is a strong kid but not even he can withstand this forever and I think we saw the start of this in the NFCCG with his MCL.

White Sox fans need not apply.

by Bears-Cubs Bulls on Feb 1, 2011 1:37 PM CST reply actions

Plus penny would be one hell of a QB coach for both Jay and Caleb.

"It is better to keep your mouth closed and let people think you are a fool than to open it and remove all doubt". -Mark Twain

by pappabearhalas on Feb 1, 2011 2:01 PM CST up reply actions

Chad

is actually considering retiring, if I heard him right. Pretty sure that he said he’s done. I guess that doesn’t mean a whole lot until we know for sure, but he’s endured enough injuries in his career.

by Digs D-League on Feb 1, 2011 2:32 PM CST up reply actions

Wikipedia claims he is considering a return for 2011

Linky

I thought the same thing until I read this on Wikipedia, not sure how reliable the CP Wikipedia page is.

White Sox fans need not apply.

by Bears-Cubs Bulls on Feb 1, 2011 2:59 PM CST up reply actions

Love CP10

But the Miami organization and fans love him, even as a player-coach.

I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.

by Topher Doll on Feb 2, 2011 3:11 AM CST up reply actions

I would like to see Caleb Hanie get a fair shake at back-up.

by Dominique Blanton on Feb 1, 2011 1:37 PM CST reply actions 1 recs

Unfortunately, Caleb was a UFA from an unsuccessfull college program, and Lovie and Martz have a hard time seeing beyond that.

Nothing he ever does seems to be enough to solidify him as backup, as far as they’re concerned. I hope he gets a good offer with another team and leaves, unless he’s given the QB2 slot, because his career will probably die on the vine here.

by BigGeorgeTX on Feb 1, 2011 5:04 PM CST up reply actions

In my opinion

if PFF had Cutler as the 3rd best qb in 2008, they are not placing a big enough emphasis on turnovers. Cutler had 18 picks in 2008, plus lost a fumble. How can you average more than a turnover a game and be considered elite? Cutler racked up a ton of yards that year because their defense was horrible and they were always playing from behind against defenses playing soft coverage.

Cutler makes too many mistakes, and has insufficient accuracy to ever be an elite qb, imo.

DEJESUS!!!

by tomas21 on Feb 1, 2011 1:43 PM CST reply actions

he was a pro bowl QB in '08

He had a heck of a season. Each play is graded. I’m sure the turnovers all were treated in a negative light.

If you go in the bathroom, turn off the lights, and say "Da Coach" 5 times while facing the mirror... Ditka will appear and slap the wussy right out of you.

by Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. on Feb 1, 2011 1:59 PM CST up reply actions

As stated in Dane's article

some interceptions (like ones that go off the receivers hands) are graded as a negative to the receiver and not the QB. In other words, they don’t penalize the QB for a pass the receiver should have caught. So….

If you can't laugh at yourself you must not be very funny.
I remain a pessimistically hopeful Bears fan.

by Just Dave on Feb 1, 2011 2:06 PM CST up reply actions

I even linked that article up!

If you go in the bathroom, turn off the lights, and say "Da Coach" 5 times while facing the mirror... Ditka will appear and slap the wussy right out of you.

by Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. on Feb 1, 2011 2:16 PM CST up reply actions

Its still too soon to label Cutler

Guy made the pro bowl in his old system and went to a Bear organization in the middle of a massive paradigm shift in offensive thinking. I think he deserves another year in the same system as a Bear before we can really understand what this kid can and cannot do.

He does throw into tight coverage a little more than I would like but that is something that can be coached up.

Also I dont buy into any of these ratings based on this formula or that formula, numbers are easy to manipulate to get a desired result. Not saying that is happening here, just saying I dont put a lot of stock into averages, ratings, and derivative stats.

White Sox fans need not apply.

by Bears-Cubs Bulls on Feb 1, 2011 2:28 PM CST up reply actions

Once his head catches

…up with his arm, he’ll be a top-flighter. I totally agree with your evaluation.
He has played behind a (at best) – mediocre O-Line – and the team still doesn’t have a stud, fight for ball in traffic receiver.
Even the best craftsman needs a few tools.

by Paul Chicago on Feb 1, 2011 9:03 PM CST up reply actions

I have a question Les

You say Cutlers contract runs through 2013. If next season is a lock out, would his contract then go through 2014? Or would that depend entirely on the new CBA?

If you can't laugh at yourself you must not be very funny.
I remain a pessimistically hopeful Bears fan.

by Just Dave on Feb 1, 2011 2:18 PM CST reply actions

That I do not know

I think contracts would be iron clad unless they are redone, so my guess is he’ll just lose a year of pay if there is no season

If you go in the bathroom, turn off the lights, and say "Da Coach" 5 times while facing the mirror... Ditka will appear and slap the wussy right out of you.

by Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. on Feb 1, 2011 2:22 PM CST up reply actions

You are 100% correct...

Some players have clauses that specifically mention a new CBA, and a lot of players won’t get their March bonuses if a new deal is not reached..

But as for regular contracts, they won’t change due to the CBA situation.

by Dane Noble on Feb 1, 2011 2:38 PM CST up reply actions

How could his worst game have possibly been the conf game?

And not, like, the Redskins game?

Vic Koenning is my homeboy.

by pygreg on Feb 1, 2011 2:19 PM CST reply actions

Better body language?

If you can't laugh at yourself you must not be very funny.
I remain a pessimistically hopeful Bears fan.

by Just Dave on Feb 1, 2011 2:23 PM CST up reply actions

It's how their grading system works

He actually graded out a positive (just barely) for that Redskin game. They take each play and assign a grade. Cutler had those 4 picks, but what positives may have helped balance it out.

Hit up their website and it explains how they grade.

If you go in the bathroom, turn off the lights, and say "Da Coach" 5 times while facing the mirror... Ditka will appear and slap the wussy right out of you.

by Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. on Feb 1, 2011 2:29 PM CST up reply actions

Can't believe I'm saying this but...

..he was ‘lights out’ in the Giants game….

by Paul Chicago on Feb 1, 2011 9:05 PM CST up reply actions

I agree with signing Hainey

I looked up other FA QB’s out of curiosity. I really have no strong feelings, but a few names maybe are Quinn, Stanton (not sure on severtiy of injury), Bulger, and Edwards. Of course, all are depending on price.

It's 106 miles to Chicago, we have a full tank of gas, 1/2 pack of cigarettes...it's dark, and we're wearing sunglasses.

by lastof12 on Feb 1, 2011 2:50 PM CST reply actions

qb's in 2011

I think Hanie should be #2 and maybe an undrafted FA at #3, I just don’t see a vet backup as a need.

by walterfan34 on Feb 1, 2011 2:52 PM CST reply actions

Technically a veteran is currently a back up.

And I’m not talking about Todd Collins. Hanie is a veteran quarterback. He just lacks starting experience. He needs to be the #2 moving forward.

If you can't laugh at yourself you must not be very funny.
I remain a pessimistically hopeful Bears fan.

by Just Dave on Feb 1, 2011 3:05 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs

I don't think Hanie even has #2 experience

Mostly #3.

I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.

by Topher Doll on Feb 2, 2011 3:13 AM CST up reply actions

By the way

nice caption on the pic. Every time I scroll over it I hear the Jeopardy music playing.

If you can't laugh at yourself you must not be very funny.
I remain a pessimistically hopeful Bears fan.

by Just Dave on Feb 1, 2011 4:38 PM CST reply actions

Hanie at #2

I think Hanie will stay at his position. The organization was going to move into the season last year with Hanie and LeFevour, until Hanie got hurt in the pre-season. I wish we would not have even gotten Collins, then we would have had a developing QB with us that could possibly challenge Hanie this year. LeFevour did pretty good that last pre-season game, I think Hanie proved his value in the last game to stay, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a QB drafted in the later rounds for development in the Martzfense.

by Captain Kangaroo on Feb 2, 2011 12:19 AM CST reply actions

Hanie #2

I really feel at ease with Hanie in the number 2 spot. It should be his and up to any other prospect to have to beat Hanie out of the spot. Hanie earned it and he is gaining experience with Martz system. Even if the Bears pick up someone like Bulger or Shaun Hill or Kitna, the job should be Hanie’s to lose.

by Sirbrek on Feb 3, 2011 12:45 PM CST reply actions