Fantasy Football Mock Draft Trends

Well we've studied and analyzed everything, with team by team, position by position, and type of league by type of league breakdowns...We've done IDP specials, PPR specials, and Bears specials... The owners voted on and cheered about something, but the players haven't so who knows...Al Davis abstained, as he didn't want to ratify a deal that would outlive him...And I owe you a Fantasy Football story. We looked at rankings, so now lets see how mocks are trending....

Alright, let's start talking mock drafts, the only thing more of a crap shoot than real drafts! (and Goodell just said the Hall of Fame game is cancelled...I don't like it, and may need to fight my urge to boycott as I thought I would if any time was missed. Pre-season or not, Bears playing football is Bears playing football, and now we get less, Dent gets no game weekend, and it sucks.)

Keep in mind this is a 10 team, standard scoring league.

ESPN's first Mock draft produced the following teams:

TEAM 1
TEAM 2
TEAM 3
TEAM 4
TEAM 5
TEAM 6
TEAM 7
TEAM 8
TEAM 9
TEAM 10
QB Drew Brees Josh Freeman Matt Schaub Peyton Manning Ben Roeth. Tom Brady Tony Romo Michael Vick Phillip Rivers Aaron Rodgers
RB Arian Foster Adrian Peterson Chris Johnson Jamaal Charles Ray Rice Frank Gore LeSean McCoy Maurice Jones-Drew Rashard Menden. Michael Turner
RB LeGarrette Blount Steven Jackson Darren McFadden Ahmad Bradshaw Daniel Thomas Peyton Hillis Ryan Matthews Jahvid Best Knowshon Moreno Matt Forte
RB/WR Shonn Greene Jonathan Stewart DeAngelo Williams WR Kenny Britt Brandon Marshall Felix Jones Brandon Lloyd Mark Ingram Fred Jackson BenJarvis Green-Ellis
WR Dwayne Bowe Mike Williams Mike Wallace Greg Jennings Calvin Johnson Andre Johnson Hakeem Nicks Miles Austin Roddy White DeSean Jackson
WR Jeremy Maclin Wes Welker Dez Bryant Marques Colston Larry Fitzgerald Mario Manning. Reggie Wayne Vincent Jackson Percy Harvin Steve Johnson
TE Dustin Keller Dallas Clark Chris Cooley Jermichael Finley Antonio Gates Vernon Davis Owen Daniels Marcedes Lewis Jason Witten Kellen Winslow
D/ST Bears D/ST Packers D/ST Jets D/ST Eagles D/ST Giants D/ST Lions D/ST Ravens D/ST Chargers D/ST Saints D/ST Steelers D/ST
K Sebastian Janikowski Billy Cundiff Garrett Hartley David Akers Josh Brown Mason Crosby Stephen Gostkow. Neil Rackers Rob Bironas Nate Kaeding
BENCH RB Ryant Grant WR Austin Collie WR Jordy Nelson
WR Braylon Edwards RB Marshawn Lynch WR Sidney Rice WR Santonio Holmes WR Johnny Knox RB Mikel Leshoure RB Cedric Benson
BENCH WR A.J. Green RB Mike Tolbert RB Beanie Wells RB James Starks WR Steve Smith (CAR) WR Terrell Owens RB Ryan Williams RB Ryan Torrain WR Pierre Garcon WR Michael Crabtree
BENCH RB Joseph Addai RB Mike Goodson WR Randy Moss WR Anquan Boldin RB Rashad Jennings RB Ronnie Brown RB Roy Helu WR Malcolm Floyd RB C.J. Spiller WR Santana Moss
BENCH RB Thomas Jones WR Julio Jones RB Montario Hardesty TE Zach Miller RB DeMarco Murray
WR Plaxico Burress WR Mike Williams (SEA) RB Michael Bush WR Leonard Hankerson RB Brandon Jacobs
BENCH WR Lance Moore QB Joe Flacco RB Pierre Thomas WR Mike Thomas WR Chad Ochocinco RB LaDainian Tomlinson QB Eli Manning QB Sam Bradford QB Matt Ryan WR Deion Branch
BENCH WR Hines Ward WR Jerome Simpson QB Matthew Stafford RB Chris Ivory RB Shane Vereen QB Kevin Kolb RB Ricky Williams WR James Jones WR Robert Meachem TE Jimmy Graham
BENCH RB Jacquizz Rodgers RB Toby Gerhart WR Emmanuel Sanders QB Tim Tebow RB Bernard Scott RB Kendall Hunter TE Tony Gonzalez RB Reggie Bush RB Ben Tate RB Danny Woodhead

 

Items of note:

Quarterbacks can wait. Jay Cutler was not drafted. Matt Schaub lasted till the 6th. Ben Roeth. lasted to the 9th. Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco went in the 12th and 13th. Now, this wasn't a 12 team league, but seriously...If I could get Flacco/Cutler in the 13th/14th....I could get a lot more value at the top of the draft and feel just as good.

Running backs cannot wait. Not this year. The top 20 are good, but if you don't get started early in a non-PPR league, you could be hurting. Team 5 has a serious deficit in RB talent, and that's hard to do in a 10 team league. Team 8 is relying on Jahvid Best and Mark Ingram as starters. Both teams had shots at far better options and loaded up on pass catchers instead. I think these teams would regret that come season end.

Tight Ends, like QBs, can wait. I can't believe anyone would draft Antonio Gates in the 4th if you could have Vernon Davis in the 7th or Owen Daniels in the 9th...Heck, Chris Cooley in the 12th is robbery.

ESPN "experts" always undervalue, and wait too long, to draft defenses. Don't expect anyone in any real league to leave things like the Packers and Steelers laying around into the 12th round, or the Bears in the 14th. Your starting defense is your 2nd least important starter, but still more valuable than your 4th-5th RB or WR.

They get Kickers right. Don't draft a kicker until the 15th round (if you want someone specific) or 16th (if you don't care). Point differentials typically come down to about 1 point a game from 1st to 10th place, and top rated kickers never finish tops.

Reaching on Super Bowl champs: Rodgers, Jennings, Finley and Grant all deserve their spots...But Jordy Nelson (8th) and James Starks (8th) were reaches in the 8th. If you draft Jordy Nelson before Anquan Boldin, you are a homer, or drinking too much Kool-Aid. Malcolm Floyd and Santana Moss deserved it more too. Side note, Bennett is an UDFA in this draft. (side side note, the players don't seem thrilled about the NFL announcement so far).

Rookies will be drafted. Mark Ingram (6th), Daniel Thomas (6th), Mikel Leshoure (8th), Ryan Williams (8th), A.J. Green (8th), Julio Jones (11th), Leonard Hankerson (11th), DeMarco Murray (11th), Shane Vereen (13th) are just some examples...My take? If you think a rookie RB will get carries, its great to get him as a 3rd, 4th, or 5th option. I think this was about right. A.J. Green went too early, and Hankerson shouldn't be drafted.

The Team I'd Take: If I had to, despite different choices I would have made, I would take Team 4 with Team 10 being my second choice. My reasons? Peyton Manning with 2 top 20 running backs, Jennings, Colston and Finley. I didn't like the Britt pick, but I'd have Boldin on the bench and would make  that swap right now...and mike drop Britt for Bennett before the 1st game of the year. Zach Miller as insurance for Finley is amazing value. The other teams all gave up too much in the RB or WR categories, or bet on a QB I don't count as a #1 in 12 team leagues. Team 10 would be my choice 2, because its a WR deficit I see, and that is easier to fix with waivers and trades later in the year. Jackson and Johnson are good, just not tops on any of my lists.

 

Thanks for listening, maybe Tues. we can talk Free Agency...?

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