Fantasy Football: Running Backs
by Brendan Hess on Aug 2, 2011 1:00 PM CDT
in Fantasy Football
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PrintI was going to do something else, but when I saw Benson, Bradshaw, and DeAngelo Williams situations get resolved (They all stayed put) I decided it was time to address Running Backs for the last time before fantasy drafts start in a couple of weeks. Not a lot of changes here (moreso in the receiver list to come) but "bear" with me as we once again review 2011's fantasy football expectations for RBs...
First things first, you can look at the last article here to get a feel for where I was at (and where ESPN and CBS were at) back in June. 12 team leagues are assumed (meaning 12 players per round of the draft, not 10).
Second things second, I will put an asterisk (*) next to guys I feel have more value in PPR leagues.
Third things third, here is the meat of the article:
1st Round Running Backs, in my order of preference: Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles*, Adrian Peterson, Ray Rice*, Michael Turner, Maurice Jones-Drew*, Arian Foster*
2nd Round RBs: Frank Gore, Ahmad Bradshaw*, Matt Forte*, Rashard Mendenhall, Steven Jackson
3rd Round RBs: DeAngelo Williams, Darren McFadden, LeSean McCoy*, Knowshon Moreno, Jonathan Stewart, Peyton Hillis*
4th Round RBs: Shonn Green, Felix Jones*, LeGarrette Blount, Cedric Benson, Jahvid Best*
5th Round RBs: Cedric Benson, Fred Jackson*, Ryan Grant
6th-7th Round RBs: Chris "Beanie" Wells, Marshawn Lynch, Mark Ingram, Ryan Matthews, Joseph Addai, Ronnie Brown, Brandon Jacobs,
Late Selections: James Starks, Mikel LeShoure, LaDainian Tomlinson*, Michael Bush, Reggie Bush*, Ryan Torrain, Daniel Thomas, Ryan Williams, Kendal Hunter, Thomas Jones, Tashard Choice, all the Patriot RBs, Pierre Thomas, Darren Sproles*, Marion Barber, Ben Tate
Sleepers: Mike Tolbert, Montario Hardesty, Rashad Jennings, C.J. Spiller*, Jerome Harrison, Roy Helu
Some Thoughts: I dropped Ryan Matthews even more after he showed up to camp out of shape, and I'll be passing on him this year. Hillis and Benson are both on my "people who will be over drafted" list. A number of rookies (Williams, Hunter) made my list because I don't trust the guy in front of them and think coaches will turn to them because of injury or performance...and you could argue to watch more (Jacquizz Rodgers, DeMarco Murray). Roy Helu made the sleeper list because of his coach and Torrain's injury history. Who knows where Michael Bush and James Harrison play this year, but if they are on a team they will be in the mix. While Michael Turner rates a 1st round grade, he is not a receiving back and had a LOT of touches last year...I won't be drafting him this season. I think this years class of Rookie Running Backs may be more like 2008 than 2009/2010; i.e., they will see the field. I fear the frailty of the Eagles RB McCoy and won't be swayed into ranking him higher despite his ability.
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With all the great fantasy info you're dropping
I’m thinking about getting back in the game!
When ever Mike Ditka boards an aircraft the aircraft changes it's call sign to Bear Force One.
by Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. on Aug 2, 2011 1:04 PM CDT reply actions
I think you mean PPR, not IDP.
And I think that Arian Foster is probably ranked a touch low, but he’ll be overdrafted by most owners.
doh
great catch… :)
- PPR Value
I am not drafting Foster this year, as I do not expect top 5 numbers from him…but I respect those who feel differently.
"just as Gary Fencik will go down as the last person to catch a Joe Namath pass, Wootton will be remembered in NFL history as the last player to sack Brett Favre." - John "Moon" Mullin
He lost Leach to the Ravens
That dude was an amazing fullback and his departure is enough evidence in itself to avoid Foster early.
Violence is the last refuge of the incompetent - Salvor Hardin
I got lucky
with McFadden last year as a 7th rounder; you don’t think he’ll be worth at least a 2nd round grade. Bradshaw concerns me since it seemed like he was available but no one wanted him, so he returned to the Giants with Jacobs bogarting his short yardage/td carries.
If its free, take two.
McFadden
will get drafted in the 2nd in most leagues…but not by me. One good season does not make me forget his trouble staying on the field. He is successful when there, however.
"just as Gary Fencik will go down as the last person to catch a Joe Namath pass, Wootton will be remembered in NFL history as the last player to sack Brett Favre." - John "Moon" Mullin
Even in his successful season
he still had trouble staying on the field.
"The time has come to get deeply into Football. It is the only thing we have left that ain't fixed." - HST
2nd
is fine for McFadden. I won’t do it, but its not overpaying. Bradshaw has been underrated 2 straight years, I don’t think that happens again this year.
"just as Gary Fencik will go down as the last person to catch a Joe Namath pass, Wootton will be remembered in NFL history as the last player to sack Brett Favre." - John "Moon" Mullin
are you talking about Jerome Harrison?
or did James Harrison get so fed up with the tackling restrictions that he decided to dish out punishment from the less-regulated offensive positions?
by BOBdaBEAR on Aug 2, 2011 1:21 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Knee injury?
That concerns me – I had him last year, loved him for fighting through it as long as possible, but a bruiser like him coming off an injury scares me – I’d still take him again, but would definitely need Jennings as my handicap.
If its free, take two.
your craaaazy for having McFadden that low
I’m sure most leagues pic him up first round. Def 2nd at the latest. I mean, who else is gonna score besides him? Their offense runs through him. I guess ford is emerging but Heyward-Bay? not a chance. lol.
Am I crazy for having him that low
or is everyone else crazy for spending a 1st-2nd round pick on him. We will see at the end of the season. Being all an offense has does not guarantee great success.
Darren McFadden has not played in all 16 games of a season yet (in 3 years). If my 1st or 2nd round pick is not available to go wild in the playoffs, why did I draft them there? I don’t draft for 12-13 weeks of value.
I respect your leap of faith in his health, if you forgive my lack of faith in it.
"just as Gary Fencik will go down as the last person to catch a Joe Namath pass, Wootton will be remembered in NFL history as the last player to sack Brett Favre." - John "Moon" Mullin
i mean i wont be drafting him
for all the reasons you just mentioned. lol. Your absolutely correct in what you said: hes always hurt. It’s just a gamble I see most people making.
and along with him
I think leGarrette Blount will go higher also. I think he will have a huge year. I think hes less risky that McFadden and higher value. Thoughts?
Less risky
don’t know about higher value. McFadden is a boom or bust bet, which hopefully means you’ve paired him with a more reliable #1/2 RB and/or better RB bench depth than other teams in your league. McFadden qualifies as a #2 RB with #1 upside and a higher than normal “bust” factor to go with that “boom”. If I already had say AP, and McFadden was there for me in the 2nd….I might still be tempted to get him, because the upside is so nice, but it would depend how the rest of the board fell (especially elite receivers). I just don’t trust him as my center piece.
Blount I expect to stay healthy, stay steady, but get less Yards Per Carry because he is not all that explosive in the end and teams adjust to power backs (hence my concerns with Peyton Hillis this year). I like Blount as a #3 RB, but if forced to use him as a #2 I can live with it.
"just as Gary Fencik will go down as the last person to catch a Joe Namath pass, Wootton will be remembered in NFL history as the last player to sack Brett Favre." - John "Moon" Mullin
Good call on Hillis
I know someone’s gonna jump on him way too early in my draft – Brown’s are on their way to another RB by committee situation with him, Jackson, and Hardesty.
If its free, take two.
Hardesty will get the most carries
When ever Mike Ditka boards an aircraft the aircraft changes it's call sign to Bear Force One.
by Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. on Aug 2, 2011 3:00 PM CDT up reply actions
If you're picking DMC at the end of the 2nd, that means you're incredibly, incredibly lucky.
It means that you have one of Foster, CJ, Peterson, or Charles to pair with DMC. That’s borderline championship just from those two spots.
its all personality driven
I know lots of people who are as skeptical about McFadden as I am, in good quality money leagues at that. IF McFadden stayed healthy in that scenario, then yes, you’d be lucky…but if he flamed out like he has all three years in the league so far from injury, you could be flat in the playoffs…especially if you had a QB like Manning (assuming the Colts lock up the division earlier of course). Just saying, there is a lot of insecurity about the pending production of backs in 2011. The only guys I trust are guys like CJ, AP, MJD, Ray Rice and Jamaal Charles. McFadden, Foster, McCoy, Peyton Hillis,Blount, coming off of their first real NFL seasons, can they repeat? (For a variety of different reasons).
Mendenhall & Benson both had low performance on a “per touch basis”….Turner had a ton of touches last year.
Forte, Bradshaw, Steven Jackson….All repeat players, but 2nd tier fantasy point wise.
Like I said, I probably won’t draft him this year, because I don’t have the confidence others seem to. I want my first 3 draft picks to give me reliable, top end points, for 16 games (pending a new issue or freak injury). Some people go another way.
"just as Gary Fencik will go down as the last person to catch a Joe Namath pass, Wootton will be remembered in NFL history as the last player to sack Brett Favre." - John "Moon" Mullin
On Rookie running backs
I won’t be picking any early this season, maybe not at all. Got burned last year by Spiller and Best (for half a season), but Dez Bryant proved the rookie jinx only applied to running backs I drafted.
If its free, take two.
that's fair
and its hard to predict success for rookie RBs…I use a simple formula – how many touches do I expect them to get? I don’t expect greatness, just like 3.9 YPC and 8 yards per catch…but if I expect them to carry the load (15-20 carries per game), that makes them a #3-4 RB straight away, because that many touches turns into points even with a bad season (Cedric Benson, in his amazing “return to fantasy greatness” averaged 3.9 YPC).
If they are in a committee, or a backup, I temper my expectations, and if the depth chart is muddled beyond a time share (10 touches a game), I don’t draft them. Bottom line is anyone who touches the ball 10 times a game is usually worth owning in 12 team leagues. Thanks for the reply!
Final note – Temper 2009/2010 rookie RB numbers against 2008 – sometimes they go off, and they are always available later.
"just as Gary Fencik will go down as the last person to catch a Joe Namath pass, Wootton will be remembered in NFL history as the last player to sack Brett Favre." - John "Moon" Mullin
Got a Fantasy question (yes, even this early).
I’ve got some Keepers that I need to designate before my League drafts on the 21st. Each Keeper will cost me a particular pick in a round of the draft. Which of these guys do you think I should keep? I’ll post the player, team, and round they’ll cost me.
Player ….. Team ….. Round
Miles Austin … Dallas … 10
LeGarette Blount … Wash … 13
Austin Collie … Indy … 12
Marshawn Lynch … Seattle … 13
Tashard Choice … Dallas … 9
Mark Clayton … StL … 13
Austin is a guarantee. He’s a 3rd or 4th round talent going in the 10th. Collie is a probable. I’m looking for high upside kinds of guys here, as I basically tanked the last 3-4 weeks of the season last year searching for good Keeper material (I was out of the playoffs by week 10).
Thx for the help!
I'd say keep Austin, Collie and Clayton
Maybe Lynch or Blount if you’re a gambler, but I bet you could find better RBs in the draft. As it is you should have a solid WR line-up with those three.
"I must have made him mad. I stole his cheeseburger or something." - Olin Kreutz
Consider that at least 2 of the big 4 will not be available in the draft.
The rules of the Keeper system is that you get to Keep players that you drafted at the cost of a draft pick in a round 2 higher than the one you drafted them in. A player can only be Kept for 2 (3?) years, and your 1st and 2nd rounders cannot be Kept. You can only keep 3 (4?) of your players from last year.
So, if you picked Jamaal Charles in the 4th last year, you keep him with your 2nd.
In this case, somebody picked up Foster on Waivers a couple years ago, used his 13th rounder on him last year, and is using his 11th on him this year.
The RB market is incredibly thin at the top this year, unfortunately, which is why I’m even considering Blount, Lynch, or Choice. And the reason Clayton’s even on there as a thought process is because MSW exists on that roster.
I'd keep those 3 plus Blount
He’s the clear lead back and will get all the goalline carries, only coming out occasionally for a broken down Cadillac Williams. He will drastically outperform any other 13th round pick you can get.
Actually, I wouldn't keep Clayton
St Louis’s coach said a couple of days ago that Clayton’s knee isn’t ready yet. Who knows when he’ll even sign seeing as he’ll likely have to prove he’s healthy first. With MSW being added to the roster along with Danario Alexander and Donnie Avery, Clayton might never reclaim his spot.
Blount & Austin
Are no-brainers. I just traded Blount for a 4th rounder to someone for a hard-to-fill “Rookie” 4th keeper slot. He is a 1000 yard back and will be close to, or at, that level again this year in my opinion. If you can get a 1000 back for a 13th round pick, you don’t think twice. You already said you are sold on Austin and I 100% agree.
Maybe Collie, because you won’t get equal value in the 12th, but I am not that high on him. I am assuming keeping Blount negates the shot at Lynch? Lynch should be good for 800-900 yards, and thus is a viable 3rd-5th back and well worth a 13th, but I value him less than Blount.
Does that help?
"just as Gary Fencik will go down as the last person to catch a Joe Namath pass, Wootton will be remembered in NFL history as the last player to sack Brett Favre." - John "Moon" Mullin
The only reason I'm a little down on Blount...
is the Shanahan connection. He’s worse than Payton and BillyB as far as choosing a lead back and sticking with him. I remember several seasons where he’d have three rushers hitting 800 yards, but none hitting 1000, and no two of those rushers would go off on the same week. Imma see what the rankings shakeup will look like in a week or two. But a 10th round Miles Austin is highway robbery. Only Arian Foster’s 11th round pick would be more valuable this year than that.
I am confused
What does Blount have to do with Shanahan? Torrain sure, but Blount is down in Tampa…
"just as Gary Fencik will go down as the last person to catch a Joe Namath pass, Wootton will be remembered in NFL history as the last player to sack Brett Favre." - John "Moon" Mullin
Hey Brendan
I’m in a bit of quandary over my strategy for a new 14-team keeper league I’m in. Traditionally I’ve been in 10 and 12 team leagues, but I’m not sure what direction I want to go in with my first picks.
I decided to keep Brady, so QB is locked up and I don’t plan on drafting my backup until late. I pick 13th and 16th. Who do you think will be available around then? I plan on stacking up on RBs and WRs with my first four picks.
Btw- non ppr.
"Our ideas held no water but we used them like a dam" - Modest Mouse
Good question
any chance you know what/who everyone else is looking at keeping? It will make a huge difference as to what might be available. If you give me your best “projected” list of the other team’s most likely keepers, I can probably give you a fair value estimate of who to target at 13 & 16.
"just as Gary Fencik will go down as the last person to catch a Joe Namath pass, Wootton will be remembered in NFL history as the last player to sack Brett Favre." - John "Moon" Mullin
Yes
QB keepers- Manning, Brady, Rivers, Vick, Rodgers, Romo, and Brees.
RB keepers- AP, Foster, CJ, McCoy, Mendenhall, Charles, and Turner.
RBs may be scarce by the time I pick. I imagine the top 4-5 WRs will be off the board as well.
"Our ideas held no water but we used them like a dam" - Modest Mouse
see reply below.
"just as Gary Fencik will go down as the last person to catch a Joe Namath pass, Wootton will be remembered in NFL history as the last player to sack Brett Favre." - John "Moon" Mullin
by Brendan Hess on Aug 3, 2011 12:28 PM CDT up reply actions
Okay, so let's focus.
You have picks #13 and #16, meaning you will get 2 of the below listed players:
RB Maurice Jones-Drew, Ray Rice, Frank Gore, Steven Jackson, Matt Forte, DeAngelo Williams, Darren McFadden, Ahmad Bradshaw, Peyton Hillis
WR Andre Johnson, Roddy White, Greg Jennings Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Mike Wallace, Reggie Wayne, Vincent Jackson, Hakeem Nicks
I would assume you will miss out on MJD, Rice, A. Johnson, R. White, F. Gore, G. Jennings, C. Johnson, S. Jackson, L. Fitzgerald, R. Wayne, D. McFadden, leaving you at #13 with:
Mike Wallace, Vincent Jackson, Matt Forte, DeAngelo Williams, Miles Austin, Hakeem Nicks, Ahmad Bradshaw, Peyton Hillis
You may get a shot at some of the guys I listed as you missing, because some guys may go for QB (Philip Rivers, Romo or Schaub)
If I were you, and the board fell that way to me, I might be walking around with Ahmad Bradshaw and Matt Forte, because in non-PPR I value top 20 RBs more than WRs. If they aren’t there, its because people passed on the receivers mention above, and you can pair one of them with an elite receiver. A Brady/Bradshaw/Forte front, paired with a high #2 receiver and an elite TE at your next corner, would give you a great foundation.
Does that help?
"just as Gary Fencik will go down as the last person to catch a Joe Namath pass, Wootton will be remembered in NFL history as the last player to sack Brett Favre." - John "Moon" Mullin
Reply Fail*
"just as Gary Fencik will go down as the last person to catch a Joe Namath pass, Wootton will be remembered in NFL history as the last player to sack Brett Favre." - John "Moon" Mullin
by Brendan Hess on Aug 3, 2011 10:06 AM CDT up reply actions
No problem
Thanks for some clarification.
I’ll be targeting Forte, Nicks, Austin, Bradshaw, Vjax, and Wallace. I’d imagine two those will be there when I pick.
So do you prefer RBs over WRs in a non-ppr? My friend and I run a ppr league, and we instituted .5 ppr for RBs and 1 ppr for WRs and TEs. That way it bridges the gap a little between RBs and WRs value.
"Our ideas held no water but we used them like a dam" - Modest Mouse
anytime.
I value top 20 running backs over top 10 receivers in non-ppr, especially this year. Forte and Bradshaw are both 1000 rushers with the strong chance to add 400+ in receiving and 6+ Tds each. Not many receivers, even elite ones, will give you 1400+ yards and 6-15 TDs, let alone a pair of them. I bet you can get decent, non-elite receivers (or an elite tight end and a good receiver) at the next bend to round out your team. In non-ppr, let your QB and RBs carry the load :)
"just as Gary Fencik will go down as the last person to catch a Joe Namath pass, Wootton will be remembered in NFL history as the last player to sack Brett Favre." - John "Moon" Mullin
Well, that depends on your league settings.
I’m in one league that scores QBs as 4 PPTD and -2 PPINT. I’m not touching my QB until I start picking my backup RB, at the very least. I got decent results from freaking Ryan Fitzpatrick last year, for crying out loud! It’s a non-PPR league. I’m valuing medium-end WRs over high-end QBs in that one. If I’m starting, say, Orton and Freeman in that league using my 8th and 11th round picks on them, I’m going to be one happy camper. Meanwhile, I’m seriously overdrafting WRs tied to high-yield offenses. WR2s on Indy, New England, New Orleans, etc. Even on those spread-the-wealth type teams, it’s worth my while to invest in their WRs over second tier QBs (i.e. not Payton, Rodgers, Rivers, etc.).
Draft for your scoring settings. Those that do will generally do better than those that don’t.
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