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Lets Talk Draft - DE Edition

So, every year (except for last) I've looked at some gamefilm of some DE's that are being tossed around in the next draft. It's basically draft time is my favorite time of the football season because of what I enjoy most about football, analysis, looking at games, gamefilm, and analyzing players skills and weakness.

Just some open questions to throw around: What interests you as a DE? Who's your favorites? Who am I missing that you feel the Bears should target as a DE? There's obviously much to talk about as I work through each of the positions of need of the Bears over the next few weeks, so. Might as well start with what may be the first pick in the draft by the Bears.

Star-divide

Quinton Coples - DE - North Carolina - Projected: 1st

Height: 6-6, Weight: 285

I like this guy. He separated himself from the shadows of Marvin Austin and Robert Quinn. He's got great size and power, and is effective enough to play the run very well. He's flexible enough to move inside on obvious passing downs (which would suit a peppers, melton, idonije, coples lineup... nom?). He's got a really powerful first step enough to break the balance of a OT. Inconsistent Effort. He's a really, really, really powerful tackler. You're just as likely to see someone break a tackle of Peppers as you would Coples. He projects to be more like a poor mans Mario Williams, without a lot of the speed and athleticism. But will he still be effective vs Tackles? About as blue chip as the draft gets with DE's.

Melvin Ingram - DE - South Carolina - Projected: 1st-2nd

Height: 6-2, Weight: 276

What I enjoy most about this guy is playing to the big stage. He hasn't been a consistant starter at SC. He's short. 6-2. That's tough if his arms don't allow him to shed tackles effectively, but he does play with low hips and a solid center of gravity, which grants him some solid flexibility. He might be better at his size to play OLB in a 3-4 opposite a speed guy. He's got great lateral speed and should be able to rip and spin off blockers but doesn't have a really strong speed rush. I think his ability to turn the corner and get around is probably underrated. When evaluating these top prospects (Ingram, Mercilus and Coples), the one thing that really strikes me is their lack of explosiveness off the ball. Ingram isn't any different, he is slippery enough to attack the pocket, but not fast enough to disrupt the pocket. He's a converted linebacker though. Part of this might be growing pains. His upside is a solid plus, but probably isn't a day 1 starter.

Whitney Mercilus - DE - Illinois - Projected: 2-3rd

Height: 6-4, Weight: 265

The only reason I really want to knock this guy is because of the base level doesn't match the upside enough to be a blue chip prospect. Maybe it's because I'm not an Illini fan, but, after watching some Illini games recently and how Blitz heavy their scheme is, I find it only natural for Mercilus to be able to rack up great numbers stunting inside (which is very common on the Bears line). His hands are solid (unlike Mark Anderson) and has good strength to push and dip into linemen for pressure. Good Motor, but he's not a supurb athlete (which is ok!), but I feel that he'd be better off not declaring and going back for another year... . He has a good size which will fit him in solidly on the line, but, it doesn't negate is mediocre speed and explosiveness. He might be playing next to talent as good or better than he is.

Jared Crick - DE - Nebraska - Projected: 2-4th

Height: 6-6 , Weight: 285

Played DT most of his time at Nebraska next to Suh, but was a highly recruited DE out of HS. Very, very, very versitile character on the line, could play all 4 positions on our line, and a 1 gap DE in a 3-4. He's been double teamed most of the year without Suh and still has produced. Again, to me, that's a big plus. He's coming off a pectoral injury. Probably one of the highest motors on this list, and his strength is pretty good. He has a real knack for the game and the intellegence to learn and play a complex scheme. Has great size, but might not be athletic enough for the Bears (but then again, considering who's on the other side, it's hard to be THAT athletic). He's a superior technician inside, and works well with his hands and strength, not necessarily through explosion. Plays to the ball very well and has a heads up, hard work mentality that's relentless. Relentless is probably the best word to describe him. He closes fast, gets good steps, but may be much better suited inside.

Vinny Curry - DE - Marshall - Projected: 2-4th

Height: 6-4, Weight: 260

Finally, a guy with explosion. He's fast, aggressive, plays hard against top talent (I think I posted a link to his game vs Ohio State and how he worked vs their OT Adams, a rd 1 guy). This would be my ideal pick out of everyone involved in the second or third (although, I think as the hot stove continues, I think that he's going to work his way up solidly into the second). He just screams out to me saying: I deserve to rotate nicely with Israel Idonije while I develop into a solid DE. He's a solid tackler, and going to be a contributer, but maybe not an every down guy from day 1. Conditioning and a pro atmosphere will help his game. I think based on our position in the draft, what we have going into it, that this may be a stellar way to move ahead and get more production from the DE spot. He's about as close to one dimensional as you get right now, but still manages to be a solid tackler. Really gets after the QB with impetus and speed. Was super productive in college, without being able to name another player on defense at Marshall. Yeah.

Andre Branch - DE - Clemson - Projected: 3-4th

Height: 6-4, Weight: 258

Branch has every physical tool you'd like. Great athleticism, good technique, a big set of hands that disengage well. Doesn't bend well at all, and has trouble beating guys outside and playing with solid leverage. But he has great reaction, doesn't overpursue, but struggles a bit with more mobile QB's and RB's who pop outside a lot. His upside? He closes fast, when I watched him play, when there was any size opening, he fought his way in very fast. He may have not always gotten there, but caused a lot of pressure. He wasn't as good with without Da'Quan Bowers (now with the Bucs), which I find to be worrysome.

Cam Johnson - DE - Virginia - Projected: 3-5th

Height: 6-4, Weight: 271

Played DMS for a while. Went from Safety/Reciever at Virgina to OLB in a hybrid 3-4, and then went to 4-3 LB in his senior year. He doesn't have a great set of leverage and plays to his superior upper body strength, but has excellent lateral movement that plays well to the agility that the Bears line goes for and allows for excellent strength in stunts. Not overly stout, but has some room to grow into the position. I like his ability pairing with Marinelli's coaching in the future. He doesn't have a solid move to get past OL outside of his strength. Can that be taught? That's a great question. If he appears quicker, lighter, faster throughout the winter, he might have a solid shot of moving up in the draft.

Shea McClellin & Tyrone Crawford - DE - Boise State

McClellin - Height: 6-3, Weight: 258 - Projected: 3-6th
Crawford - Height - Projected: 3-5th

I'm placing both of these guys together because their story intertwines very much. I normally don't like taking guys who have played their entire relevant career together (from Crawford's JC transfer on). Why Crawford is solid is that he's a physical guy, he's fast, he's great off the ball, great motor, but needs refinement in his technique. He's a coachable prospect that might fall right into our hands late. I'm not saying he's a blue-chip sure thing, but, Boise State has been producing some quality products lately, this guy? He does the little things right. He might need some time to get up to speed and develop a solid move to sustain a long career ala Alex Brown. Someone who's not going to be a #1 guy, but a really solid #2 who's able to command respect across from an elite guy. Is that what we need? At this stage of the game. Yeah, I don't see why not. We're not in a place to trade up for an elite DE at the time being, and the ones at the top, aren't any different than the same first round talent every year I think... McClellin on the other hand is a different prospect... he moves well in space, isn't overly fast, but he moves so much better on the field. I think that timed speed doesn't do real game speed justice, and how well his reaction time is off the ball, and his absolute control of gap assignements. I used relentless once before, but this guy, he's like KVB levels of relentless, no loaf, 100% on every play... and what makes it amazing is that for a DE, his stamina is fantastic. He's not overly powerful, but he's stupidly energetic. McClellin has probably the bigger upside, but the lower base. One of the things that I noticed when I watched the D-Line for Boise State against the run was how effective they were in preventing a lot of big plays, containing the edge and playing their responsibility. Boise State plays smart football, and there's something to be said about that. They play disciplined solid defense.

Out of all these players i've looked at, the guys I like the most are: Vinny Curry, Tyrone Crawford, and Jared Crick. I wouldn't be opposed to Mercilus if he made it well into the second, but the reasonable DE prospects in the first round aren't really spectacular for their position in the draft (which also means I feel that its unwise to trade up for one), but I do feel that there's solid role players that could accent Wooton, Peppers, and Idonije (and Davis) in the next year. Each of those three players all have significant upside and ability to rotate effectively Day 1 for the Bears.

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This FanPost was written by a Windy City Gridiron member, and does not necessarily reflect the ideas or opinions of its staff or community.

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Awesome write up

I have not seen games of all these guys, so can’t judge on them all. Personally I really like McClellin and Branch. McClellin seems like a perfect guy for Marinelli to coach up, your description is spot on, relentless, great motor. Branch looked athletic, very explosive off the snap and has great speed.
I like what you say about Mercilus, he gets projected a 1st rounder a lot and people rave about his explosiveness, but I don’t really see the hype. He’s not good against the run, struggles to get off blocks, only had one good season and isn’t overly athletic.

I would like Branch in the 2nd round or McClellin in the 3rd.

You're never a loser until you quit trying - MIke Ditka

by DutchBear on Jan 11, 2012 5:34 PM CST reply actions  

He’s not good against the run?

I keep hearing this. But I’ve seen it differently. Am I crazy, because I think he’s actually pretty decent against the run?

Bearsh!tt!n It ain't obscene- I'm a Bears fan that likes hittin and exclamation points.

by Bearsh!tt!n on Jan 12, 2012 12:46 AM CST up reply actions  

Nice writeup.

Can’t imagine how much you watch college football to give this level of breakdown! But I hope the first pick isn’t a DE unless someone really fantastic is somehow available at #19… or unless the Bears trade away their first rounder in pursuit of a legit LT or #1 WR.

by oripunk3485 on Jan 11, 2012 6:42 PM CST reply actions  

I actually don't watch a lot of college football during the regular season.

Most of the problem is (this year at least) I Live in Italy. I don’t have a ton of time.

I wrote a program about five years ago in java that can read input videos (see: games), and break them up two ways. 1) it cuts up the game by possession by reading where the ball indicator is. and 2) it reads the down and distance modifier and returns a video slice of the individual play, and a database result that gets verified against feeds I scrape from ESPN to provide a play-by-play analysis.

I used to sell people the webservice to do that with their own feeds. Now I just run a multi-tuner through my server at my house in Chicago and take up gigs of space every weekend. Gigs. It’s worse on Saturdays (obviously). NFL games got much easier to come by with NFL Rewind… but College games? I normally have to either A) scour for them online (which isn’t easy) or B) acquire a feed of non-local channels (like Bright House Network, or Comcast Sports – Zone Whatever, or something..)

And then I sit and watch a side in about 15 minutes. It’s pretty neat, and allows you to really focus on the game. It sorta sucks when you’re watching hurry up offenses because the tv data is slow to update sometimes.

Really, the big point was, what Lost in STL said: Nothing is really good that’s available to us in the first, but the deeper parts of the draft still have some useful talent.

Five foot three seems to thrive on his misery...

by awfullyquiet on Jan 11, 2012 8:03 PM CST up reply actions  

wow

thats really impressive.

by TR MacReady on Jan 11, 2012 10:15 PM CST up reply actions  

go big or go home.

Five foot three seems to thrive on his misery...

by awfullyquiet on Jan 12, 2012 8:53 AM CST up reply actions  

The Bears truly need a better DE than Izzy will ever be...

and i am a huge fan of Izzy. The only guy on this list who I like (outside of Coples who the Bears have a 0.0% chance of drafting) is Crick, but he almost sounds like Melton 2.0. A guy who’s good everywhere but great nowhere. Mercilus is the only guy I can see being available at #19 and like you, and I don’t know if he’s going to be (or even develop into) the star the Bears need. I’d rather the Bears go after a LT or CB or even a top-tier G/C in the first round and pick up Crick in the second.

There's a fine line between stupid...and clever!

by LostInSTL on Jan 11, 2012 7:38 PM CST reply actions  

I agree, sorta.

Crick was one of my favorites to look at (mostly because I like the way Nebraska plays defense)… But the way I look at him, he’s going to be a younger Idonije, in EXACTLY the same way… Idonije has the versatility to play in many spots, he’s got good size, he doesn’t have a plethora of great pass moves, he’s super solid in the run. Crick has probably better hands, but Idonije is really very solid with his leverage, and pretty consistent, but lacks the power at the point of the attack to overpower quite like Crick could. I also am sufficiently tired I had to re-read this five times in order to remember who was who because I feel like I’m talking about the same person sometimes.

The problem is, we’re not looking for another Idonije… I’d say we’re looking at Pass Rushers who can do the Mark Anderson/Alex Brown sort of routine until there’s a deeper DE draft. Just need someone to play 1-2 downs and spell Peppers from time to time (if Wooton injuries out of the league), and replace Idonije on passing downs. Coples would be a Day 1 starter, but no one else on the list I think has enough current ability to make like that. This is just a bad draft for blue-chip DE talent. I think there’s some players with great upside, but geez… There’s a derth of nfl ready talent… (which means that guys like Tyrone Crawford look enticing for upside at value).

Five foot three seems to thrive on his misery...

by awfullyquiet on Jan 11, 2012 8:30 PM CST up reply actions  

+1...

That’s why I’d push for 2nd or 3rd round for a DE with upside. The name DEs in this draft are meh., so why not look for a mid-round kid with a chance to overachieve and find defensive impact at other positions, like CB or safety. Let’s face it, it’s not that the Bears lack depth, they lack starting caliber at the starting positions. Their current roster in many positions is great depth, but poor height!

There's a fine line between stupid...and clever!

by LostInSTL on Jan 11, 2012 8:43 PM CST up reply actions  

i agree

DE in the first rds dont really appeal to me for what the bears are looking for vs what we could get out of players at other positions at 19

by TR MacReady on Jan 11, 2012 10:19 PM CST up reply actions  

Great write up by the way

Im sure it is a lot of work but would love to hear your opinion on the WRs, CBs, and LBs.

by TR MacReady on Jan 11, 2012 10:20 PM CST reply actions  

Awesome write up. Good quality insight

Personally, I would like to see us grab Ingram or Mercillus in the 2 IF they’re there, or Curry in the 2nd or 3rd.

***Jeff Fisher for front office 2012***
(A real change we can believe in)

by Joeb'n777 on Jan 11, 2012 11:03 PM CST via mobile reply actions  

Where do you get your projections from?

I see a lot of Mocks w/ 3 or 4 of these guys in the 1st round. Just bc there are less good ones, doesn’t mean less teams want them.
I liked the writeup though. Good to see a little love for the idea of a defensive player in the 1st round. Eight years ago was the last time we tried that.

Bearsh!tt!n It ain't obscene- I'm a Bears fan that likes hittin and exclamation points.

by Bearsh!tt!n on Jan 12, 2012 2:31 AM CST reply actions  

Projections to the non-inducted club of draftology aren't an exact science.

There’s a few guys I see and they’re the complete, NFL ready packaged based on a lot of data (a lot of data and a lot of years of scouting which I don’t have)…

I mean, you can pick out first round talent without too much problem. There’s a consensus that gets built (and I wouldn’t be telling the truth I didn’t say I asked around at what some good 4-3 draft prospects were and most people would offer their projections as well).

I have a tendency to undervalue players, especially raw and high upside ones. I’m not a GM, I think GM’s have a habit of reaching on high risk-reward players. I place them in the rounds-ish where i’d feel most comfortable drafting them based on their skill level and nfl readiness.

Five foot three seems to thrive on his misery...

by awfullyquiet on Jan 12, 2012 8:59 AM CST up reply actions  

Thanks for the explanation.

You’ve put a slight damper on my Mercilus parade, but I’m still a fan.
And another thing, I keep hearing he’s bad vs the run, but my one good eyeball has told me different. I do understand the scheme-inflated stats/inexperience argument. But I like his hands, motor and also his play against Wisconsin and Ohio St’s bigger linemen.
So, I’m curious, how did Mercilus grade vs the run in your opinion?

Bearsh!tt!n It ain't obscene- I'm a Bears fan that likes hittin and exclamation points.

by Bearsh!tt!n on Jan 12, 2012 11:04 AM CST up reply actions  

What you notated was part of the problem.

The fact that the big 10 is producing some serious run blockers makes it a bit harder to tell…

From what I’ve seen, he’s nothing special. He’s not awful. He’s got good rangy arms and can naturally wrap well which are both bonuses against the run, but, he was, and this may be systemic, overly penetrative. I wrote down one play when the were in some 3-5-3 (Rover?) formation, and he was LDE, he penetrated inside when it looked like the Left most LB was intent on pressing the WR outside, and the leftmost interior LB’s were slanting right. Into the play, he was pushing hard inside, and let the Tackle take his outside shoulder out and let the RB get to the next level. His hands are good too. He’ll wait till the right moment in run blocking to disengage and attack, but… He’s not overpoweringly strong for someone his size, especially in the upper body, which doesn’t bode well against a lot of stronger backs in the league…

He’s not super consistent in defending the run, but he’s pushing hard and trying to get leverage and force plays inside. I’ve seen him play with some nice recognition in the screen game. But he’s not overly stout, he lost a LOT of battles vs both LT’s and RT’s in the run game, but abused them with the pass rush with his hands, leverage, and balance.

Five foot three seems to thrive on his misery...

by awfullyquiet on Jan 12, 2012 12:10 PM CST up reply actions  

Thank you.

Excellent analysis, I look forward to your future installments.

Bearsh!tt!n It ain't obscene- I'm a Bears fan that likes hittin and exclamation points.

by Bearsh!tt!n on Jan 12, 2012 5:56 PM CST up reply actions  

I think a lot of those projections will change...

If Mercilus is available in the 2nd-3rd, that’s a no-brainer.

Crick/Curry are better pro fits in a 3-4 by all accounts.

Branch will go higher than the 3rd or 4th, if he drops there, again no-brainer.

I think Cam Johnson may go end of 3rd-early 4th at this point.

I like Frank Alexander as another option.

Like the write-ups, just think projected rounds are off… then again it’ll all change/surprise come draft day.

by IOftenPanic on Jan 12, 2012 7:53 AM CST via mobile reply actions  

And we haven't even hit the combine yet...

That said: I agree with you that Crick is probably a better 3-4 DE or a 4-3 DT than a 4-3 DE… But he’s got the tools, and will probably be picked above where the Bears would have them on their board because of his value at other positions that the Bears can’t justify his value at….

Branch had a pretty serious down year. All my data though, tells me, when someone else in the same position or grouping as you (specifically at DL and CB, but lesser so at OL & WR), is a 1-3rd round draft pick, and you play worse the next year, it increases your bust factor. I have a modeling program for that kinda data too…

Five foot three seems to thrive on his misery...

by awfullyquiet on Jan 12, 2012 9:05 AM CST up reply actions  

Mostly agree...

…though I think the combine (as you mentioned)/hype/ceiling will drive Branch pretty high. Right now I would see some team jumping on him in the 2nd.

I also don’t understand the “down year”. He had 10.5 sacks (career high), 77 tackles (career high), 17 TFL (career high) and did all that without Bowers around, and got a lot more attention from offenses.

by IOftenPanic on Jan 12, 2012 1:35 PM CST up reply actions  

He got 10.5 sacks..

But he didn’t look as good. Brandon Thompsen looked really, really, really good too. Branch got more attention, but not as much as you’d think with that 6’2 fattie in the middle…. I’m not one for saying that Sacks are the end-all-be-all statistic, but I didn’t see the VT game where he piled up 4 sacks… I’ll have to acquire that one and take a look.

He looked much more well rounded against BC and NCST than he did against WV last week (finished watching that Bowl game this afternoon)… He actually looked pretty awful… It didn’t help that Clemson turned the ball over like 30 times, but… Geno Smith stood there and just picked apart Clemson’s defense with a ton of time in the pocket.

Five foot three seems to thrive on his misery...

by awfullyquiet on Jan 12, 2012 1:57 PM CST up reply actions  

Would Brandon Thompson be a good fit for the Bears?

DT is not a big need, but Brandon Thompson is a player I really like. I think a player like that could really open things up for Peppers, Melton, etc… plus keep the OL off of the LB’s in the run game.

Bearsh!tt!n It ain't obscene- I'm a Bears fan that likes hittin and exclamation points.

by Bearsh!tt!n on Jan 12, 2012 11:16 PM CST up reply actions  

If he drops...

The one thing the Bears literally cannot have enough quality talent stocked up in is:

1) DL
2) Safeties.

I’ve finally come around to that thinking that unless all 6 positions are absolutely filled by beasts… But the real balancing act is determining value for the team… He’s not a great pass rushing talent, but he is good at taking double teams and absolutely would project nicely into the 1-Tech in the Bears… But I don’t think he’s better than Paea at this stage of the game… Paea is a bit more fluid and aggressive in the pass game and projects to be stout enough in the run game once he gets his game on, Thompson isn’t that coming out. I’d actually say he might look better as a 2-Gap DE than a DT in our system. People say he’s a 3 Tech, but I just don’t see it for the Bears.

Five foot three seems to thrive on his misery...

by awfullyquiet on Jan 13, 2012 8:49 AM CST up reply actions  

And I'll look into Alexander as well.

Didn’t hear his name passed around that much.

Five foot three seems to thrive on his misery...

by awfullyquiet on Jan 12, 2012 9:07 AM CST up reply actions  

I know he's a DT

but Michael Brockers from LSU has declared for the draft. I’m hearing some good things about him and seems to be a top 20 pick.

Have you by chance seen any film of him?

You're never a loser until you quit trying - MIke Ditka

by DutchBear on Jan 13, 2012 8:57 AM CST reply actions  

Do you know the injury history

of anyone besides Crick? I realize that propensity for injury is one of the hardest things to project for any position, but I’d hate for da Bearsto waste a pick on another T. Harris, Wootten, Dvoracek, etc. Crick seems like a tough sell if there’s another prospect with a similar base and a cleaner injury history.

"If the good Lord had wanted us to play soccer, he wouldn't have given us arms." - Mike Ditka

by TheAwesomeMachine on Jan 14, 2012 1:31 PM CST reply actions  

I'm not a doctor...

I just play one on television.

Five foot three seems to thrive on his misery...

by awfullyquiet on Jan 14, 2012 6:50 PM CST up reply actions  

He just screams out to me saying: I deserve to rotate nicely with Israel Idonije while I develop into a solid DE

Nice lol

"With all due respect, and I mean with ALL due respect...that idea ain't worth a velvet paintin' of a whale and a dolphin gettin' it on."

by CurtisEnisFan on Jan 17, 2012 1:27 PM CST reply actions  

Without having a starting DE though...

Resigning Idonije is serious business.

Five foot three seems to thrive on his misery...

by awfullyquiet on Jan 17, 2012 2:48 PM CST up reply actions  

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