2012 Receiver class, crunching the numbers.

by fortefan09 on Jan 17, 2012 12:30 PM CST

With so much talk about the Bears needs as far as receiver goes, I decided to take a look at a few of the reciever prospects who will be in this years draft. I looked at all of their 2011 game stats and crunched some numbers to come up with a better way to evaluate them.

First- I took all of the recievers that are projected within the first 3 rounds. (May have missed a few)

Second- I wrote down a chart of the top 5 games by Opponent, Receptions, Yards, Average, and TD's. I ranked the highest games by number of receptions on down. So, for instance; If someone has 10,9,5,11,12,10,4,8 receptions, than I started with the game that they caught 12 passes.

Third- I then added the total number of Receptions and yards and divided them to get the top 5 average in yards. I also added up the total number of TD's in those 5 games.

The last thing I did was look at the top oppenent for each Receiver out of their 5 games and compared them to each other.

This is what I got....

Justin Blackmon : Top 5 games 59 Rec - 725 Yards- 12.3 Avg- 8 TD's with his top game played against Kansas State being 13 Receptions, 205 Yards, 15.8 Average and 2 TD's

Alshon Jeffery : Top 5 games 26 Rec - 439 Yards- 16.9 Avg- 5 TD's with his top game played against Kentucky being 6 Receptions, 95 Yards, 15.8 Average, 2 TD's

Michael Floyd: Top 5 games 56 Rec- 632 Yards- 11.3 Avg- 4 TD's with his top game played against Michigan being 13 Receptions, 159 Yards, 12.2 Average and 0 TD's

Kendall Wright: Top 5 games 51 Rec- 823 Yards- 16.1 Avg- 7 TD's with his top game played against TCU being 12 Receptions, 189 Yards, 15.8 Average and 2 TD's

Mohamed Sanu: Top 5 games 63 Rec- 665 Yards- 10.6 Avg- 4 TD's with his top game played against Ohio being 16 Receptions, 176 Yards, 11.0 Average and 2 TD's

Dwight Jones: Top 5 games 44 Rec- 456 Yards- 10.4 Avg- 5 TD's with his top game played against Duke being 10 Receptions, 101 Yards, 10.1 Average and 3 TD's

Nick Toon: Top 5 games 33 Rec- 466 Yards- 14.1 Avg- 7 TD's with his top game played against Minnesota being 8 Receptions, 100 Yards, 12.5 Average, and 2 TD's

Brian Quick: Top 5 games 44 Rec- 546Yards- 12.4 Avg- 6 TD's with his top game played against Elon being 11 Receptions, 150 Yards, 13.6 Average, and 2 TD's

Marvin Mcnutt: Top 5 games 41 Rec- 595 Yards- 14.5 Avg- 4 TD's with his top game played against Purdue being 9 Receptions, 151 Yards, 16.8 Average, and 2 TD's

After looking at these numbers I came to this personal conclusion.

-Blackmon is Blackmon and we all know how good he is, regardless of his numbers.

-You can see with certain players that with the higher amount of receptions like Sanu and Floyd, they would probably be better posession receivers, And you can also see that the two of them have a lower Yards Avg.

-With some of the bigger bodied Receivers, you can see the higher Avg and higher yardage total. So you can really see who the posession and big play receivers are. Whats interesting is when you look at the fact that Jeffery has the highest Average but lowest number of Yards and Receptions. We all know that he had poor Quarterback play but it does show that with the right guy throwing to him, he could be a beast. Let me know what you guys think and what you got from my crunching!

This FanPost was written by a Windy City Gridiron member, and does not necessarily reflect the ideas or opinions of its staff or community.

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Comments

Jeffery is a big boy

but he is a GREAT deep threat. Also I really like Kendall Wright. Alot

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by suckmyditka on Jan 17, 2012 1:46 PM CST reply actions

i would love

Jeffery, Toon, McNutt, or Jones, since those four are all possible selections with our picks. I think Jeffery is going to be a stud.

by Nih1lus on Jan 17, 2012 2:29 PM CST reply actions

Really I would take any one of these guys...

…now the question is where do you get them?

Streeter, Randle, Wright are other guys who could go by the end of the 3rd… maybe Broyles, Fuller or Jenkins depending on how things fall… how the combine goes.

I like the CB and WR depth of this year’s draft… which is good… because we could really use 2 upgrades at both spots.

by IOftenPanic on Jan 17, 2012 3:17 PM CST reply actions

Wright is probably going in the first or early second.

I like him or Floyd.

by Ryan21 on Jan 18, 2012 9:24 PM CST via Android app up reply actions

would like any of these guys but...

I would rather trade our two 3rd rounders and get Marshall or sign V-Jax from free agency and use the 1st round pick to draft OL/LB. Cutler has expressed he wants Marshall, there would be no lag with him and Cutler gaining camaraderie

by dt2332 on Jan 17, 2012 4:03 PM CST reply actions

I am still skeptical of two 3rds for Marshall being a viable trade...

…but if Miami wants to be foolish by all means… would love Marshall for just two 3rds.

I would much rather have Colston for the money than VJax (though VJax is obviously an upgrade).

Between the whining about contracts and the numbers not really matching the hype… I just don’t see all the VJax love.

I am very much warming up to trading down in the first depending on how things fall. CB/WR is super deep and I can imagine 5-6 impact guys that we could use all being available at 19 or the end of the round.

by IOftenPanic on Jan 17, 2012 4:52 PM CST up reply actions

I would prefer Bowe with his motor issues than Marshall or Jackson.

by Shuggs on Jan 21, 2012 7:32 PM CST up reply actions

Sorry fellas I'll take Floyd over everybody except Blackmon .

" Everyone has a plan 'till they get punched in the mouth. " ~
Mike Tyson

by MidWayMonster54 on Jan 17, 2012 5:40 PM CST reply actions

Concur, we are in the minority though.

"With all due respect, and I mean with ALL due respect...that idea ain't worth a velvet paintin' of a whale and a dolphin gettin' it on."

by CurtisEnisFan on Jan 17, 2012 8:39 PM CST up reply actions

Well sometimes we , the minority , are correct .

" Everyone has a plan 'till they get punched in the mouth. " ~
Mike Tyson

by MidWayMonster54 on Jan 17, 2012 10:23 PM CST up reply actions

I find this line of thinking curious...

Tell me more. Why is Floyd the second most draftable to you guys?

by GentlemanJack on Jan 17, 2012 10:25 PM CST up reply actions

To me anyways he is what we need . Lets check out what ....

…. some of his best attribute are …..

Size: At 6’3, 227 pounds, Floyd possesses prototypical NFL size for the WR position. While some might suggest that he carries too much weight for his 6’3 frame, I tend to believe he carries the weight rather well. Though Floyd is one of the heavier WR prospects in recent memory; the weight appears to have no bearing on his ability to consistently gain separation from collegiate DBs. In fact, it is his size that helps him gain much of his separation on Saturdays.

This kinda sounds like what Jays been asking for , a big bodied go up and get it reciever . Also this kid blocks hit tail off .

Body Control:Floyd is one of the best boundary WRs in college football. He has a keen sense of awareness for where he is on the football field, and is able to twist and contort his body to remain inbounds while catching the football. He also displays remarkable body control while high-pointing the football, winning a good portion of those 50/50 throws.

Yet again something Jays been beggin for .

In Traffic: It is not my intention to continue to point to Floyd’s size, but in traffic is where it’s good to be 6’3, 227 pounds. He uses his body extremely well to shield off defenders when attempting to catch the football at its highest point. On multiple occasions, I’ve witnessed DBs in position to make a play on the football, only for Floyd to gain position and snatch the football away at the last possible moment. In traffic, he is very strong at the point of the catch as he tends to focus a lot more in traffic compared to when it comes to making the routine catch.

He’d be our only reciever , other than Earl Bennett , that would fearlessly go over the middle & make that tough catch . It’d be nice to see Jay have more than one target that can do this .

YAC: While Floyd is a tough physical runner after the catch, he won’t give you much in terms of wiggle or making someone miss in the open field. There aren’t many DBs that can, or want to tackle him once he’s in the secondary. Floyd will never be classified as a "speed" WR, however he does possess enough speed to take it the distance. Whether it’s a DB, or a LB attempting to tackle him Floyd will often attempt to drop his pad level and "lower the boom" to gain a couple additional yards. Unfortunately, he is somewhat of a one trick pony in this area.

Kid acts like a running back after the catch . He fights for every yard and rarely gets brought down by one tackler . Honestly this kid is a fighter and I love that about him .

Blocking: Floyd certainly excels in this area as he is a fantastic stalk blocker. In the run game he goes about blocking with the same passion and desire he has for getting the football thrown his way. On multiple occasions he came inside and cracked down on a LB reminiscent of Anquan Boldin. However, I did notice that when he is required to block in the passing game, he isn’t quite as effective; oftentimes looking disinterested. He is very selfless on the field, and has proven over and over again that he will lay his body on the line for his team. Overall Floyd will certainly add value to any NFL team with his blocking ability on the perimeter.

This is really another thing we lack , a tough down field blocker . Floyd is a Chicago type WR , tough guy with good hands ( not great ) that will get after you as a blocker on the edge .

Like I said the only WR I’d take before him is Justin Blackmon , but thats it . Floyd is our kind of WR and Jay Cutler would greatly benefit from this kids presence in our passing game . Blackmon is gonna be a top 5 guy so we really have no shot at him whereas Floyd could fall to us and help us greatly .

" Everyone has a plan 'till they get punched in the mouth. " ~
Mike Tyson

by MidWayMonster54 on Jan 18, 2012 1:17 AM CST up reply actions

Sorry ....

….. LINK TO SCOUTING INFO

" Everyone has a plan 'till they get punched in the mouth. " ~
Mike Tyson

by MidWayMonster54 on Jan 18, 2012 1:18 AM CST up reply actions

If we are operating under th assumption (like I am) that Jeffries and Floyd are dueling for the #2 WR taken, or second best in the draft, then this is how I break it down:

I compare them to the Chargers’ wide outs….Floyd’s skills and talents mirror Vincent Jackson’s, where as Jeffries’s skills mirror Malcom Floyds.

One is more of a complete package, where the other will be valuable as a redzone threat /fade guy.

"With all due respect, and I mean with ALL due respect...that idea ain't worth a velvet paintin' of a whale and a dolphin gettin' it on."

by CurtisEnisFan on Jan 21, 2012 6:32 PM CST up reply actions

I'm very skeptical about Jeffery, more specifically his work ethic

Personally, I believe Sanu is the most likely to make an early impact with the exception of Blackmon.

by Joeb'n777 on Jan 17, 2012 10:09 PM CST via mobile reply actions

Weird that Sanu isn't a bigger name on draft boards

Adjusted for QB production, Sanu might have had the best year of any big conference WR. Rutgers QBs had 255 completions and 3100 yards passing … Sanu had 115 rec and 1206 rec yards by himself… christ.

I didn’t get a chance to watch Rutgers games this year, but he certainly looks like an NFL caliber WR. He’s 6’2", the NFL draft scouts at CBS rave about him and place him ahead of Jeffery.

The downside is he’s 23 and will be 24 by the start of his rookie year, while Alshon Jeffery is 21 turning 22 soon. I’m not sure if that’s a big deal for WR prospects, or any NFL prospects at all for that matter. Basketball is my favorite sport to watch, and the scouting difference between a 21 year old and a 24 year old who put up similar stats is usually enormous and for good reason … so maybe I’m overreacting to it in this case. Here’s the list of recent rookie WRs who were 23+ years old in their rookie season. It looks to me as though being older isn’t really a drawback. 21 year old rookies almost never contribute right away, while 22-24 year olds seem to contribute right away at a similar rate. And there are several cases of 24 year olds who were drafted high and kept improving into their mid to late 20s (Marvin Harrison, Roddy White, Keyshawn, Javon Walker). I dunno, there’s a lot I don’t know about this guy, but I don’t see any reason yet to leave Sanu out of the discussion at #19.

by YaoPau on Jan 18, 2012 2:11 AM CST up reply actions

Sanu looks REALLY GOOD.

I’ve been on the bandwagon for a few weeks now, and can say nothing but highly positive statements regarding his game. He doesn’t have the huge speed, but still manages to get solid separation because of his size… He’s a big threat over the middle who’s got size, intangibles, solid route running, gets good YAC, small space agility and in the offense I think we’re looking for, I think will be a solid compliment to say, Colston and Knox in three wide sets… Did I just say Knox? Yeah. I don’t want to admit it, but… He’s not a #1 Receiver. But, given other weapons, other threats, he’ll bloom like Bernard Berrian did.

Anyway. Sanu is legit, probably my #1 Bears pick at the moment.

Five foot three seems to thrive on his misery...

by awfullyquiet on Jan 18, 2012 9:52 AM CST up reply actions

Agreed

Ive been keeping an eye on him all season and must say that Im sold. Its not very often that you find a guy with his size that can run routes as well as he does right out of college. Another thing that I LOVE about him is he is a ferocious downfield blocker (Video 1, Video 2, Video 3)

Personally I think if he can go somewhere where he can learn from a veteran for a couple years he can develop into a #1 WR. If we could bring in Reggie Wayne through FA then draft Sanu not only would it give us two very solid receivers it would also give Sanu that veteran to learn from and eventually take over for.

One last thing: check out this comparison Mocking the Draft did on him. Pretty accurate IMO.

by Joeb'n777 on Jan 18, 2012 11:15 AM CST up reply actions