A Top Ten Defense Guarantees Playoff Berth Under Lovie

by T.J. Shouse on Jan 20, 2012 1:40 PM CST

I know, guarantees in sports are about as meaningful as a politician's campaign promises, but during Lovie Smith's tenure as Head Coach of the Bears, if we have a top ten defense, we make the playoffs. Jump to look at some of the Bears' defensive numbers during the Lovie Smith era.

You can look at the Bears' offensive numbers under Lovie Smith here, but for now let's take a look at what the Bears have been able to accomplish defensively under Smith. Take a look at the chart below, which lists each year's points per game allowed by the defense, the team's defensive total yardage, passing yards, and rushing yards rankings, and the number of first downs allowed and turnovers created. The three years to focus in on are the playoffs years of 2005, 2006, and 2010. Each year featured a top ten yards allowed defense that was surrendering less than twenty points per game.

	Record	PPG Allowed	Team D	Passing D	Rushing D	1st Downs	Turnovers
2011	8-8	21.3	17th	28th	5th	9th	5th
2010	11-5	17.9	9th	20th	2nd	9th	3rd
2009	7-9	23.4	17th	13th	23rd	24th	12th
2008	9-7	21.9	21st	30th	5th	23rd	2nd
2007	7-9	21.8	28th	27th	24th	20th	8th
2006	13-3	15.9	5th	11th	6th	2nd	1st
2005	11-5	12.6	2nd	5th	11th	4th	6th
2004	5-11	20.7	21st	15th	25th	14th	16th

Every non-playoff season featured a defense ranked outside of the top ten that was either adequate to below average, and gave up between twenty to twenty-three points per game. So, as expected, for the Bears under Lovie Smith to make the playoffs the defense needs to lead the way. I know, not exactly rocket science.

The impressive thing to me is the consistently high marks in turnovers caused, with the lowest ranking being in Lovie's first year in 2004; I know our defense relies on causing turnovers, but I didn't realize we were so good at it year in and year out. And also its surprising to see just how big a difference our run defense makes between a .500 or better season and a sub-.500 season; in the Bears' three sub-.500 seasons, our run defense ranked 23rd, 11th, and 25th. In 2008 we finished 9-7, missed the playoffs and were terrible against the pass (30th overall), but the run defense finished fifth. In 2011 Chicago was 8-8 but the run defense held up as the fifth best in the league.

So what do these stats tell us? Chicago has needed the defense to carry the team into the playoffs, and to make that happen the defense needs to be in the top ten in overall yardage allowed and keep opponents below twenty points per game. The other stats factor in obviously, as does the offense's production, but if we want to see the Bears back in the playoffs, keep an eye on PAPG and overall yardage allowed.

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Comments

I love stats

but to be honest they can lead you to believe things you wouldn’t normally.

the real key stat for any defense is points allowed. if you keep the other guy out of the endzone you have a good chance to win. Forcing turnovers is a good way to keep the otherr guy from doing a silly dance in your end zone.

It is also interesting that we only finished in the top half of the league in total offense during those years and that was 2006 when we finished 15th.

. "Most football teams are temperamental. That's 90% temper and 10% mental."
--Doug Plank

by ed_brown on Jan 20, 2012 2:50 PM CST reply actions

What's even scarier...

is the defense only being in the top half 3 times in 8 years. I grant that the Bears play the “bend not break” style emphasizing turnovers, but that seems worse then even I would have expected.

There's a fine line between stupid...and clever!

by LostInSTL on Jan 20, 2012 3:06 PM CST up reply actions

if you go by points allowed they have been in the top half every year except 2009

. "Most football teams are temperamental. That's 90% temper and 10% mental."
--Doug Plank

by ed_brown on Jan 20, 2012 3:37 PM CST up reply actions

The problem is...

being good on defense is Lovie’s “strength” and the supposed strength of the team. Thus, being top 10 (in points especially) is kinda important in his system. We all know about the shortcomings on offense, but the Bears need to get some players on that defense too. This offseason does not look promising. I hope the Bears can get their GM found, signed, and working his ass off soon!

There's a fine line between stupid...and clever!

by LostInSTL on Jan 20, 2012 4:25 PM CST up reply actions

Lovie's real crime over the past few years has been our dismal offense.

If the Offense pulls it’s weight it makes playing D a lot easier. By all means, we need another edge rusher, and with Lovie calling a lot more single high coverage an upgrade at CB would be very desirable, and we have no depth at LB. But, all things considered, our D is in better shape than our O.

. "Most football teams are temperamental. That's 90% temper and 10% mental."
--Doug Plank

by ed_brown on Jan 20, 2012 4:52 PM CST up reply actions