2012 Chicago Bears Roster Turnover: Tight End
by Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. on Jan 26, 2012 10:00 AM CST
in Roster Analysis
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The notion of the tight end as nothing more than a glorified offensive lineman has retired along with former Bears offensive coordinator Mike Martz. While there's still a place for the blocking TE in the NFL and in Chicago, the Bears will actually want to find a TE that can catch the ball. Could that guy be on the roster in the athletic Kellen Davis? Will he even be on the roster in 2012? With the help of the grading system from Pro Football Focus we'll take an in depth look at the TE position with an eye towards 2012.
Kellen Davis - Free Agent - I can't imagine there being a market for Davis, so the Bears could bring him back at a workable salary. Some team may look at the athletic Davis and think he's a diamond in the rough, but the fact remains that not even the Bears know if he can evolve into a pass catching threat. Earlier in his career he had Greg Olsen in front of him on the depth chart and in 2011 he had the stink of the Martzfense all over him. There's been a few "Wow" plays from him, but not enough to know for sure. I think he should return if the price is right.
Pro Football Focus had neutral grades across the board for Davis except for a -1.3 in his run blocking. He was their 22nd ranked TE overall. For a little perspective, they had former Bear Greg Olsen graded down at #36 with a -3.6 grade. Kellen's catch percentage of those TEs that took at least 25% of their teams snaps was a 54th best 58.1%. But with just being throw at 31 times, it's a small sample size. Maybe with more opportunities he'll flourish.
Matt Spaeth - Signed through 2013 - This was a good signing as he was a block first TE that fit the old system, but he should find a home in 2012 as well. He's a little pricey for a #2 TE at $1.775 million in 2012 and $2 million in '13, but when thrown to he's shown good hands. The Bears plan is to be a smash mouth run team, and Spaeth fits that mold. He's definitely returning to Chicago.
PFF had him as the 19th rated TE in the NFL last year, with his only negative mark in the pass block category. Seeing how much he was used in this aspect under Martz, I think his -1.2 is actually OK. And when you look at the breakdown of the grades even further, we see that his pass block grade was neutral every week except the week 10 Lions game where his -1.7 drug his number down.
Andre Smith - contract undisclosed - The rookie undrafted free agent spent a little time on the Bears active roster, but he didn't find his way into any games. At best he'll be back in camp competing for a spot in 2012.
Kyle Adams - Signed through 2013 - The Bears were high on the undrafted rookie free agent, and he made the opening day roster. Unfortunately he ended his season on injured reserve. They seemed to lik his versatility and he has a good chance to stick on the '12 roster. Personally I never saw that much from him to believe he's anything more than 3rd or 4th TE. PFF had him involved in 12 snaps for the year.
Draylen Ross - Signed to a reserve/future contract - A camp body, albeit a big camp body (6'4" 271) signed for some depth.
2012 OUTLOOK - If the Bears believe that Davis can be the future at the position, they'll lock him up, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a rookie or two brought in to compete. I think there are too many other needs on the roster to spend a draft choice on unless someone really high on their board slips to them late.
In case you missed them:
2012 Chicago Bears Roster Turnover: Quarterback
2012 Chicago Bears Roster Turnover: Running back
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To be honest, I'd like to see us draft anywhere else but TE.
We have bigger problems at the other more needy positions. LB comes to mind if we suffer an injury there.
Cacti are prickly.
Bring Davis back
Since We’ll actually use the TE this year he could b a breakout player. Great size and i just have thoughts of that one catch where dbs were bouncing off him lol Hes a matchup problem that we should utilize fully.
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by EmmCeee on Jan 26, 2012 10:41 AM CST via Android app reply actions
Davis
showed flashes of being very athletic and really hard to bring down after the catch. I don’t think he has great hands like Gronk/Hernandez but he seems like a tough matchup for both LB’s and DB’s to cover. No question his receiving numbers will go up this year with Martz gone (assuming he resigns with teh Bears) but I think he could breakout as Cut-Cut’s new Olsen-esque bff and put up some really good numbers.
For me, as usual, it all comes down to what it takes to sign guys.
Davis is young enough where he shouldn’t get worse and still has some room to improve, but bottom line is that he’ll likely never be more than average as a TE in any facet of his game.
Everyone keeps focusing on the new breed of TEs in the NFL, but if we get some better blocking and two above average weapons (WR or TE), then our offense will be fine (barring no more injuries to Culter).
As it stands now our OL is still terrible and frankly I don’t see much improvement on the horizon outside of maybe Carimi. So getting TEs who can block and don’t factor as much in the passing game makes a little more sense for how this team is constucted in the near term.
That being said… Davis is not a great blocker and neither is Spaeth. I 100% disagree that Spaeth was a good signing, his blocking numbers were below average prior to signing him and they’re still not great. He was a marginal step up from Manu… which made him look much more attractive than he is. He’s not atrocious, but he’s definitely overpaid.
If Davis comes cheap, say $600K-$800K against the cap for 2-3 years… I’m fine with bringing him back. He really should be a 2/3. We have so many holes to fill that are more crucial than TE (WR, LT, DE, CB) that I would be fine with one more year of Spaeth/Davis. You can cut Spaeth after 2012 for only a $333K cap hit if he can’t greatly improve and hopefully the line will have some improvements so you can then target a better weapon at TE.
I would definitely kick the tires on Finley, Davis and Carlson depending on which ones are available. Finley had a down year, but he’s got a ton of talent and would be a blow to the Packers. I think he’ll want too much money or he’ll get franchised. Davis would be great, but he has issues with the league and is close to suspension I believe. Carlson I’d take a flier on if he’d come at a discount due to his injuries (assuming the team doctors clear him).
I don't agree at all with you on the o-line
I think we have a lot of guys that showed talent this past year, even Webb. I believe that in a system that plays to the strengths of these guys and an off season to prepare for their roles, this group of guys can have a lot of success. They were playing pretty well up until Cutler got hurt.
If you look at the season, they gave up a lot of sacks the first few games until Martz finally adjusted, then they gave up more sacks when a new QB came in that couldn’t manage the offense. This was all while we were already down two starters. And even then, there were a lot of things to like.
I believe that a starting line with Webb, Williams, Garza, Spencer/Louis, and Carimi is a pretty good line. Williams and Carimi were both playing well until they got hurt, Louis showed flashes of brilliance during the winning streak, Spencer was a great pick up, and Garza has a year or two left in him as a leader. With Edwin Williams and either Spencer or Louis as depth, I think our only need would be to replace Omiyale of course. If we can do that with a star in the first couple rounds or even free agency then great, but if not, I would say a mid-round back up or project would give us the depth we need to have a pretty solid and developing line.
Looks like we're going to have to disagree...
…almost every metric you can measure an offensive line by says this group isn’t even average. We’re ranked 20th or below in pretty much every category that I can see save Open Field Run Blocking… which says more about Forte than our OL.
Webb, Garza, Louis are not league average. Yes, there is still some ceiling to be had for Louis/Webb… but I don’t think it’s as high as some here like to think. I would put good money down that Louis/Webb will not be ranked as top-20 in pass blocking next year, no matter where they stick on the line. CWill finally showed some stuff, but got injured… again. Depending on him is not a safe bet. Spencer looks okay sometimes, and has some talent, but at most he’s going to be an average player. Carimi is the safest bet in my mind and he barely saw the field last year. EWill has some promise, too, but I don’t see a league-average overall blocker in this group right now… and only Carimi has potential to consistently be league-average or better. Our OL is very bad.
Adj. Yard Rank – 24th
Power Run Rank – 20th
Stuffed Run Rank – 30th
Pass Protect/Sack Rank – 31st
We did okay running between the LT/LG and RT/RG… but everywhere else we couldn’t run. Cutler runs for his life on so many plays, it makes our sack % look even better than it should be.
Besides that I can just watch the games. My eyes alone can tell me we are in the bottom third of the league… and metrics back that up consistently. We’re a bad blocking unit.
Offensive lines improve with time, especially with young guys in place
Tennessee went from 31st in 2010 to 2nd in pass protection this year. Buffalo from 17th to 1st. Oakland from 26th to 5th. In TEN, Leroy Harris finally improved. In OAK, Jered Veldheer improved. In Buffalo, five young guys improved (Bell, Urbik, Levitre, Rinehart, Wood).
In terms of size and athleticism… I’d put the potential of Webb/Carimi/CWilliams up against that of any three young prospects on any team. Add in Edwin’s productivity, and I think the Bears are a great candidate to follow in those teams’ footsteps next year. Nobody will disagree that the Bears oline had problems in 2011, but there’s a reason why coaches keeping putting those raw, talented guys out there…
I see your point...
…and I obviously don’t have a crystal ball. I just don’t see it in Webb/Louis. For every young upside guy that improves drastically there are ten that don’t. I actually saw some regression (though I don’t have game-by-game metrics, maybe someone does) with some of our OL as the season went on, and they were completely exposed when they had to deal with Hanie back there not escaping nearly as many plays or zipping the ball out fast enough.
I’m all for keeping guys together and mixing vets/young guys. Honestly I want to see Carimi/Nicks/Spencer/EWill/Webb as our group… but that’s a pipe dream. This OL is bad. Marginal improvements won’t be enough to get us to average next year, so at least two guys will have to take major steps. I hope I’m wrong, but I don’t ever see Webb holding down a league-average LT for starters.
Do these metrics weigh Martz's madness?
But yeah, they definitely didn’t pass anyone’s eyeball test either. Addition by subtraction? Martz out, some semblance of sanity in and I think this line will look a little better. A lot of youth, too. Not saying they don’t need help though.
Also, I’d like to see Lance Louis rewarded for chasing down that TD last year and put him in more at TE/FB in short yardage situations. There’s a match up problem for somebody.
Bearsh!tt!n It ain't obscene- I'm a Bears fan that likes hittin and exclamation points.
by Bearsh!tt!n on Jan 27, 2012 11:13 AM CST up reply actions
It's a good point...
…I think you can subtract some of Martz’s failure to adjust te 5-6 weeks with Cutler’s ability to escape ungodly amounts of pressure, though.
My main point is that our OL is still bad. I find it strange that anyone would disagree with that, like some posters do. That being said, there’s certainly room for debate whether Webb/EWill/CWill/Louis have solid potential. I don’t like any of them that much to be honest.
by IOftenPanic on Jan 27, 2012 11:35 AM CST up reply actions
I’d like to see Lance Louis rewarded for chasing down that TD last year and put him in more at TE/FB in short yardage situations
He ran 60-odd yards downfield to push someone out of bounds, so we should put him in to catch and carry?
When I assume, I'm not "making an ass out of u and me"... I'm actually putting u between me and an ass.
he was a college TE...
When Mike Ditka calculates pi it's decimal representation ends.
by Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. on Jan 27, 2012 12:31 PM CST up reply actions
Yeah, that sounds like it deserves a reward...
Throw a little goal line play action pass his way. And I don’t remember anybody going out of bounds, but I do remember a BS horse collar penalty.
Bearsh!tt!n It ain't obscene- I'm a Bears fan that likes hittin and exclamation points.
sweep all of them from the roster
Except for kyle Adams. The rest are poor blockers with questionable hands. Davis takes too many plays off. FA TE and draft an athletic tell later on to groom.
Hoping that Peppers does the belt dance over Rodgers crumpled on the turf
by tfrabotta on Jan 26, 2012 11:59 AM CST via mobile reply actions
What did you see from Kyle Adams?
When Mike Ditka calculates pi it's decimal representation ends.
by Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. on Jan 26, 2012 12:14 PM CST up reply actions
I saw him go to IR with the quickness .... So maybe his speed is good ???
" Everyone has a plan 'till they get punched in the mouth. " ~
Mike Tyson
by MidWayMonster54 on Jan 26, 2012 6:32 PM CST up reply actions
Hands. decent short to intermediate route running in the preseason
Won’t be much on the blocking front but is a receiving TE. Could become a decent #2 TE.
Hoping that Peppers does the belt dance over Rodgers crumpled on the turf
Just for comparisons sake...
In these posts could you put up the highest-ranked player at their respective positions? Or perhaps a well-known player considered to be “great”? (i.e. Gronkowski for the TE’s)
It would be helpful in that it could serve as a baseline guide as to how the Bears players stack-up to the competition in PFF’s rankings.
Other than that I really like this series; job well done!
E.F.K.
In addition to that
Maybe the highest ranked free agent at the position.
You're correct Gronkowski was #1 with a 29.5
and the great Jermichael Finley was #37 with a -4.3, his poor run block grade killed him
When Mike Ditka calculates pi it's decimal representation ends.
by Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. on Jan 26, 2012 1:21 PM CST up reply actions
For TEs
I would pursue getting Finley or F. Davis as a way to upgrade the position. If neither of those pan out, sign Kellen.
Agree both are worth a look but...
…GB keeps or franchises Finley… would be my best guess. I think I read somewhere that if Fred Davis gets caught/suspended again for drug use he misses the whole year. Is that right? If so there would need to be some kind of clause in his contract.
John Carlson, if doctors clear him and the Bears test him out, would be great on a “prove-it” type of deal.
I'm also on the John Carlson bandwagon !
" Everyone has a plan 'till they get punched in the mouth. " ~
Mike Tyson
by MidWayMonster54 on Jan 26, 2012 6:33 PM CST up reply actions
Common?
I’m impressed because there seems to be a common sense drought of biblical proportions surrounding that offense.
Common sense ain’t all that common and these changes might not be all that exciting or sexy but they are oh so very welcome.
pre season
with a full pre season camp we should get to see all of the above tight ends and evaluate
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