The Bears should mortgage the future for a championship now
There has been no shortage of speculation this offseason so far about what the Bears should do about this, that and the other. If new general manager Phil Emery reads this forum as often as his predecessor Jerry Angelo did, then he is aware that fans want to see him draft a receiver, sign another, find replacements for some of our aging defensive stars and maybe even swing some trades. I, on the other hand, have a more radical approach for our new GM; since there is no way to replenish the talent and set this team up for the next six to eight years in one offseason, why not just swing as many trades as possible, mortgage the future and make 2012 an all-or-nothing championship campaign?
It makes sense to me at least to take this approach. Emery has nothing lose, he's stuck with Lovie Smith no matter what and he just inked his deal and there is virtually no way the Bears would fire him after one season and have to pay another new guy next year.Everyone knows that Brian Urlacher, Charles Tillman, Julius Peppers and Lance Briggs are all on the wrong side of thirty and that there are no signs of their replacements on the roster. Most would agree that the Bears are a couple game-breaking wide receivers and an offensive lineman away from being back in the playoffs with a possible deep run, so why not go balls to the wall and try to win it all?
It wouldn't even take much, except for the 2013 draft. Take out '12 pick and our '13 first rounders and throw in our fourth round pick or one of our thirds and trade up into the top 5 for Justin Blackmon. He is far and away the best receiver in this class and would be an instant upgrade at the position.
Then we could sign a free agent receiver to compliment him as well, since rookie receivers aren't always able to adjust right away. Then Emery could go out and sign Carl Nicks to a deal and Marcus McNeil. That would certainly shore up any loose ends on the line.
Oh but what about the pass rush? As the Sun-Times' Sean Jensen pointed out last month, a Lance Briggs-for-Osi Umenyiora makes perfect sense for both sides, their contracts are very similar and so is their age, meaning that this deal could work for both parties.
You'd have to think that a Bears team with McNeil, Nicks, Garza, Louis, Carimi line, with Cutler under center, Blackmon out left, Colston or some other free agent out right and Bennett in the slot would be a scary group. Plus Forte in the backfield under the franchise tender. Then a defense with Urlacher, Peppers, Umenyiora and Tillman?
If the Bears didn't get deep into the playoffs or God forbid, miss them entirely, Emery could fire Smith and start fresh with his guy.
This isn't as crazy as it seems.
Another scenario is that the Bears, instead of trading up for Blackmon, go ahead and sign a guy who has been tagged. Last year Vincent Jackson played under the non-exclusive tender, so it isn't out of the question that Dwayne Bowe or DeSean Jackson gets that designation, in which the case the Bears could offer a big deal, force the other team to take the two first round picks and the Bears still get a playmaker and have picks for the 2nd-7th rounds.
People automatically equate giving up multiple first round picks as "mortgaging the future" and it can be, but if Emery hits on his other picks, it wouldn't be that bad. The Bears could built a championship team for this year, that will be competitive down the road and only give up a couple of first round picks.
I say, let's do it.
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In short, I don't agree
The New England Patriots and the Pack don’t mortgage their futures for all-or-nothing runs, and they are perennial contenders because of that approach. They consistently build while letting their top guys take the lead and guide the teams to the playoffs every year. It doesn’t always result in Super Bowl runs or titles but those two teams are always in the mix because they build while they try to win.
Giving up the future for one chance run is nothing short of stupid. Ain’t that what the Eagles did last year? Look where it got them. Nowhere.
I don't think that's actually relevant.
Being perennial contenders is absolutely more important to winning the super bowl. Sometimes the more talented team doesn’t win, if so the Packers would have won the super bowl, no questions asked.
There’s a fair amount of luck involved in winning a super bowl (much like a world series), to mortgage the farm for a run is generally a plan for disaster and long term rebuilding.
Would you rather: Be a perennial playoff contender for years to come OR win a super bowl and immediately go into rebuilding mode.
I’d do the former every year forever. Winning the super bowl is nice, but being a playoff contender year in year out (like the Steelers) is a recipe for winning a lot of super bowls, like the patriots.
You don’t end up like the 90’s Bills all the time.
Five foot three seems to thrive on his misery...
by awfullyquiet on Feb 18, 2012 10:15 AM CST up reply actions
true but all i was saying was
the eagles put all their eggs in one basket. and i’d rather be a playoff contender every year yes. and i agree the most talented doesn’t win but the eagles went all out and got nothing.which is what im saying.
Would you rather: Be a perennial playoff contender for years to come OR win a super bowl and immediately go into rebuilding mode.
Our window of opportunity is closing fast, and then we’ll be in rebuilding mode anyway (probably with a new coaching staff running new schemes, requiring a retool of the roster). That makes me think we’re not likely to be the former, unless we turn into the Steelers or Patriots all of a sudden. With that in mind, while I agree it’s better to be a perennial contender, there’s something of a sense of now-or-never in the air…
When I assume, I'm not "making an ass out of u and me"... I'm actually putting u between me and an ass.
'Our window of opportunity is closing fast'
Here’s the thing.
We have the ability to replace and understudy key players in the future because of the wealth we have in other areas. We can go BPA and develop solid strengths in other areas without question.
Yeah, our defense may be aging, but, if we have a solid/above average offense (which theoretically, with a receiver + an improving line, and no double qb/rb injury streak, we should be able to accomplish), we’d push ourselves into a double category not only dependent on our defense, which is where we’ve been for the past, oh, say, ever?
We’re looking at our playoff potential only in the frame of mind our defense is going to get worse. Sure, that’s possible. The other thing that’s possible is that we draft well on the defensive side of the ball, and acquire new pass rushing talent and new linebacking talent over the next 3-4 years and have only a marginal dropoff in talent. I’m not saying we’re going to be able to replace Urlacher or Peppers, but I do think that there’s a good scheme that can still create positive results in the future by drafting talent players on both sides of the ball.
Yeah, I’m hopeful. But I don’t think that it’s going to be as doom and gloom as your analysis of closing windows assumes.
Five foot three seems to thrive on his misery...
by awfullyquiet on Feb 18, 2012 10:28 AM CST up reply actions
Better example would be Atlanta.
Julio Jones is a great nice piece. Didn’t help them in the end though
Cacti are prickly.
by crackedcactus on Feb 17, 2012 4:15 PM CST up reply actions
I disagree
No way do I give up two first round draft picks for any receiver. There simply is no guarantee that a star receiver from another team will perform the same for a new team. There’s been too many examples of receivers who have signed with a new team and gone on to a less then stellar career.
Either sign a receiver as a free agent or draft one.
Not for Bowe or Jackson.
I wouldnt mind trading up for Blackmon. I dont think we would be throwing away our future.
by Ryan21 on Feb 17, 2012 3:36 PM CST via Android app up reply actions
That's a lot to give up though..
just for a rookie receiver..no matter how good he was in college..pretty much every WR in the first round is a gamble..even the top ones.
That doesn't mean we wouldn't be ... because we would.
You get more production out of Brandon Marshall next year than you do from a rook who might not adapt.
Mortgaging the future for any player never works out, otherwise the Eagles and Redskins would have dominated the NFL recently.
Players are flesh and blood. The people you toss the dice with can get injured, under-perform or worse, and you’re left with squat for the foreseeable future. People clamored for Haynesworth and other touted free agents, that didn’t work out for the teams that got them. A championship doesn’t always go to the best team on paper, there’s a lot that plays into it. Let’s not forget we don’t have a top tier coaching staff here, so acquiring enough talent to overcome coaching philosophy is daunting. How many times in the past few years did the team have their fate within their control and come out totally flat and unprepared? I put that on the coaching staff.
If you're going to big time it
we should land Mario Williams.
Above all; keep 'em guessing, never let them lose their sense of confusion.
Have to remember he has to transition back to a 4 - 3
He’s great. but not sure a great fit at DE anymore. He didn’t produce at a Peppers level while in Houston.
Cacti are prickly.
by crackedcactus on Feb 17, 2012 4:17 PM CST up reply actions
He was a 3-4 OLB for 1 year
and a 4-3 DE for his 1st 5 years… He went to two pro bowls and had 14 sacks in 07 when he didn’t make the pro bowl… In 6 years Williams has 53 sacks in 82 games, in his first 6 seasons Peppers had 56 sacks in 90 games
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by Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. on Feb 17, 2012 4:28 PM CST up reply actions
I agree with Lester
one year wouldn’t make him a 3-4 OLB like Ware but if could at least get 8-10 sacks in a year, i wouldn’t mind him across from Peppers
Not even a full year in the 3-4
He only played like 4 or 5 weeks didn’t he
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I think 6
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by Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. on Feb 17, 2012 5:59 PM CST via iPhone app up reply actions
He's a 4-3 end
and I don’t think there is any way the Bears spend the money it will take to bring him in on a position that has JPep on the depth chart
"I'm too drunk to taste this chicken" - Colonel Sanders
It's all about THE []_[] baby!!!
~"Smile when u being attacked,laugh when they talking boutcha,wave when they hating on u and Pray when they leave u alone Somethings wrong!"~ Deion Sanders
At least FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER before you judge me fool
The theroy behind signing Williams is solid though ....
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Mike Tyson
by MidWayMonster54 on Feb 17, 2012 10:14 PM CST up reply actions
Aren't we $50 Million clear in cap space with 39 players signed?
Of course we can find 15 million for MW. It would also negate the need to go out and sign any DBs.
Most would agree that the Bears are a couple game-breaking wide receivers and an offensive lineman away from being back in the playoffs with a possible deep run
With the current roster I think the above is where the Bears are now. With just one kickass WR and a better LT, I think the Bears are back in the playoffs with a probable deep run.. all the way to the Bowl.
I'm for this
This isn’t a dynasty team. Blackmon + Cutler for the next 6 years is the way to build, and I really don’t think the Bears are going to find an elite player at 19. Blackmon, Colston, Cutler, Forte…. That could be something.
well you need
other guys to put around them. and you need those picks
No, you don't
Half of the first round guys underperform or bust out of the league. Face it, in the first round, you aren’t happy unless you get a multi-pro-bowl player. Just like with the Cutler trade, it can be worth it. Giving up one probably useful pick next year and a likely overvalued pick this year for one almost certainly high value pick this year seems well worth it. Two mid-low first rounders for one high first to get clearly the best WR this year? What are we going to get with the 19th? Another right tackle? 5th best DL? Questionable WR? No, I’ll take Blackmon. The Bears don’t have so many holes that their 2nd and 3rds can’t fill.
Only thing is it won't get Blackmon
This years first and next probably won’t cover 19 to 3rd? Blackmon will be top 5 if not higher. The new values for picks is a little fuzzy but I am guessing it’ll take 1st this year, 1st next year and still like this years 2nd or 2nd and 3rd. While Blackmon looks like the next can’t miss, that’s too much to get him….now if they just lost that last game this year…
by TheMan1 on Feb 18, 2012 10:07 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
According to the draft pick value chart...
Which isn’t good to go by… It’ll take 1st, 2nd, 3rd round picks this year AND 1st next year… With the new rookie wage scale, these 1st rounder have even more value so it’ll take another pick, possibly 2 to seal the deal.
That’s just too much. I would much rather keep the picks. Plus if we’re trading up that high, why not go for Kalil instead? Honestly, I would much rather have Kalil than Blackmon.
You could be right. I was thinking 2 QBs, 1 LT, 1 CB for top 4, but Blackmon could go 4th. I was thinking 5th, and the teams at that position won’t give up Blackmon cheap. They could all use him too. If it’s there though, I think 2 firsts and a 4th is worth it. 4th vs 3rd…. Yeah, that’s really getting pricey. Probably nobody makes that.
now if they just lost that last game this year…
I know. It’s weird to groan when the Bears win.
All I know is
Mortgaging your future for a quick pay-off is foolish. Nothing is guaranteed. If it were, the same teams who land big name free agents year after year would win also win the Superbowl. And that’s just not the case. Look at Washington, Philly, Dallas. The Jets.
You need to put yourself in a position to win on a consistent basis by being smart with your players, and shrewd with your money. Put yourself in a position to compete year after year by having a smart GM with good scouting and talent evaluation and build a team.
Luckily for the Bears, they already have a lot of key players in place.
by Skags on Feb 17, 2012 3:55 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
Agreed.
Well said.
Who wants a hot slice of crazy?
by jetcitybearfan on Feb 17, 2012 3:58 PM CST up reply actions
When you’re at the cusp is when you spend a bit extra. What’s being suggested doesn’t cripple the Bears. With the cap space they have, they can front load contracts for proven guys in their prime. That gets you to the top.
I’m going to point at Julio Jones though, as the Bears and Atlanta are in about the same condition and Atlanta did this last year. Did Atlanta ruin their future competitiveness? No, they got a player who looks like an elite WR. And look at last years draft picks 15-32. Pretty weak compared to the first half of the first round. Some maybes, but nobody who performed like the top half. And this draft looks weaker than last year’s.
Question the conventional wisdom. There are times for performance, and there are times for value. Trading for Blackmon is the better move if the price could be the 19, next year’s first (probably 25th+) and a 4th.
It's not foolish if most of your best players are at the end of their primes
Teams like the Ravens or Steelers, or Bears, should be looking to make one final push before they lose some top talent.
Tampa Bay was in that situation, with a lot of their top players in their late 20’s and early 30’s. They signed Brad Johnson, McCardell, Keyshawn and won it all.
Also,
Put yourself in a position to compete year after year by having a smart GM with good scouting and talent evaluation and build a team.
We haven’t had a smart GM able to do that, and we’ve been back to the playoffs once since the 2006 season’s Superbowl appearance.
Urlacher, Briggs, Peppers and Tillman have a couple of seasons left (with little in the way of up and coming talent behind them) and then we’re in rebuilding mode, probably with a new coaching staff and the new philosophies and roster retooling that that entails. We can look forward to posts about “What could have been: how the Jerry Angelo era wasted the best talent since the ’85 Bears” or we can go all in. I wouldn’t mind having something to celebrate.
When I assume, I'm not "making an ass out of u and me"... I'm actually putting u between me and an ass.
This is the bears we are talking about?
The same team that keeps Lovie Smith is not going to allow Emery to do something that drastic.
I think you're overrating Blackmon
He is far and away the best receiver in this class and would be an instant upgrade at the position.
We don’t know that. Michael Crabtree was supposed to be far and away the best, same with Braylon Edwards, and it didn’t work out that way.
Blackmon isn’t that physically gifted… average size and build… decent speed… just a 33" vertical according to Sports Science. Unless you see something in his skillset that’s so far ahead of the pack, I wouldn’t spend two 1sts to get him. There are plenty of WRs in this draft with upsides just as high imo.
The Bears aren't that old.
They’ve got plenty of young talent on their roster, with a handful of guys approaching the end of their career. Much like most other NFL teams…
I'm a ninja.
by Dane Noble on Feb 18, 2012 8:46 PM CST via Android app reply actions
If all it would take is 2 1sts then id do it
The 19th pick and high 20’s pick is not much to pay for a very good wr. Anything more and no way
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by EmmCeee on Feb 18, 2012 9:41 PM CST via Android app reply actions
Justin Blackmon is 6'1.
Meditate on that in light of our past problems and Cutler’s recent comments, and see if you’d like to bust two drafts for this guy. We could get 6’5 Stephen Hill in the second round. He’s not even rated as an elite receiver by scouts, nowhere close.

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