FanPost

2012 Draft Trade Value Analysis


I've had something of a hypothesis over the last few months. Looking at some of the changes taking place in the draft this year, namely the rookie wage scale and the 1st round Prime Time on Thursday thing, I thought that the "standard" NFL Draft Value Chart would change significantly for this year. Specifically, I thought that 1st round picks would become more highly desired as they cost so much less to sign both in the short and long term. So, I'm going to go through all of the trades that happened both last night and over the last couple of months to see what's going on with the Chart.

For reference, I'm using the Walter Football version of the chart (they're all roughly the same, it's just that Walter is the one that's always sited around here), and I'm looking at the ESPN draft trade ticker to see what happened last night.

Hopefully, the chart will transfer over correctly, I want to make sure that everybody sees this right...

Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4 Round 5 Round 6 Round 7
1 3000 33 580 65 265 97 112 129 43 161 27 193 14.2
2 2600 34 560 66 260 98 108 130 42 162 26.6 194 13.8
3 2200 35 550 67 255 99 104 131 41 163 26.2 195 13.4
4 1800 36 540 68 250 100 100 132 40 164 25.8 196 13
5 1700 37 530 69 245 101 96 133 39.5 165 25.4 197 12.6
6 1600 38 520 70 240 102 92 134 39 166 25 198 12.2
7 1500 39 510 71 235 103 88 135 38.5 167 24.6 199 11.8
8 1400 40 500 72 230 104 86 136 38 168 24.2 200 11.4
9 1350 41 490 73 225 105 84 137 37.5 169 23.8 201 11
10 1300 42 480 74 220 106 82 138 37 170 23.4 202 10.6
11 1250 43 470 75 215 107 80 139 36.5 171 23 203 10.2
12 1200 44 460 76 210 108 78 140 36 172 22.6 204 9.8
13 1150 45 450 77 205 109 76 141 35.5 173 22.2 205 9.4
14 1100 46 440 78 200 110 74 142 35 174 21.8 206 9
15 1050 47 430 79 195 111 72 143 34.5 175 21.4 207 8.6
16 1000 48 420 80 190 112 70 144 34 176 21 208 8.2
17 950 49 410 81 185 113 68 145 33.5 177 20.6 209 7.8
18 900 50 400 82 180 114 66 146 33 178 20.2 210 7.4
19 875 51 390 83 175 115 64 147 32.6 179 19.8 211 7
20 850 52 380 84 170 116 62 148 32.2 180 19.4 212 6.6
21 800 53 370 85 165 117 60 149 31.8 181 19 213 6.2
22 780 54 360 86 160 118 58 150 31.4 182 18.6 214 5.8
23 760 55 350 87 155 119 56 151 31 183 18.2 215 5.4
24 740 56 340 88 150 120 54 152 30.6 184 17.8 216 5
25 720 57 330 89 145 121 52 153 30.2 185 17.4 217 4.6
26 700 58 320 90 140 122 50 154 29.8 186 17 218 4.2
27 680 59 310 91 136 123 49 155 29.4 187 16.6 219 3.8
28 660 60 300 92 132 124 48 156 29 188 16.2 220 3.4
29 640 61 292 93 128 125 47 157 28.6 189 15.8 221 3
30 620 62 284 94 124 126 46 158 28.2 190 15.4 222 2.6
31 600 63 276 95 120 127 45 159 27.8 191 15 223 2.3
32 590 64 270 96 116 128 44 160 27.4 192 14.6 224 2

YAYS!!! THAT WORKED!!!

OK, on to the stupid analysis...

Trade #1:

Cleveland Browns: Acquire pick No. 3 in 2012 (2200)

Minnesota Vikings: Acquire picks No. 4 (1800), No. 118 (58), No. 139 (36.5) and No. 211 (7) in 2012 (1901.5 total)

Advantage: Trade Up by 298.5

Trade #2:

Jacksonville Jaguars: Acquire pick No. 5 in 2012 (1700)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Acquire picks No. 7 (1500) and No. 101 (96) in 2012 (1596 total)

Advantage: Trade Up by 104

Trade #3:

Dallas Cowboys: Acquire pick No. 6 in 2012 (1600)

St. Louis Rams: Acquire picks No. 14 (1100) and No. 45 (450) in 2012 (1550 total)

Advantage: Trade Up by 50.

Trade #4:

Philadelphia Eagles: Acquire pick No. 12 in 2012 (1200)

Seattle Seahawks: Acquire picks No. 15 (1000), No. 114 (66) and No. 172 (22.6) in 2012 (1088.6 total)


Advantage: Trade Up by 111.4

Trade #5:

New England Patriots: Acquire pick No. 21 in 2012 (800)

Cincinnati Bengals: Acquire picks No. 27 (680) and No. 93 (128) in 2012 (808 total)


Advantage: Trade Down by 8

Trade #6:

New England Patriots: Acquire pick No. 25 in 2012 (720)

Denver Broncos: Acquire picks No. 31 (600) and No. 126 (46) in 2012 (646 total)


Advantage: Trade Up by 74

Trade #7:

Minnesota Vikings: Acquire pick No. 29 in 2012 (640)

Baltimore Ravens: Acquire picks No. 35 (550) and No. 98 (108) in 2012 (558 total)

Advantage: Trade Up by 82

Trade #8:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Acquire picks No. 31 (600) and No. 126 (46) in 2012 (646 total)

Denver Broncos: Acquire picks No. 36 (540) and No. 101 (96) in 2012 (636 total)


Advantage: Trade Up by 10

Trade #9:

Washington Redskins: Acquire pick No. 2 in 2012 (2600)

St. Louis Rams: Acquire picks No. 6 (1600) and No. 39 (510) in 2012, plus 1st round picks in 2013 and 2014 (Each worth 590-3000) (3290 - 8110 total range)

Advantage: Trade Down by 690 to 5510


Conclusion:

Undetermined, at best. The trade for Robert Griffin III skews a lot. If you throw that out, it seems like NFL teams are valuing top 15 picks far less than they've valued them in the past. The average increase in value by teams winning the trade in the upward direction is 104.3. Only one out of the 8 draft day trades had the team trading down winning the trade. I'm kinda discounting the RG3 trade because that's an incredibly unique circumstance where a potential franchise cornerstone was getting passed up for ANOTHER potential franchise cornerstone. But the Rams really milked that one for all it was worth, and ended up with a pretty nice haul for that one pick.

Overall, though, I was wrong about my hypothesis. Not only were the 1st round picks not valued more highly than they have been in the past, it seems like they were greatly devalued. On average, by about the worth of an early 4th round pick. I would not have called this, and I'm now kinda glad that the Bears didn't trade down from their 19th pick. I'm a little disappointed that we didn't try and leverage our 19th and 81st overall picks into a pick in the 10-12 range, given how much these picks were going for. That would have been a package roughly equivalent in points to the package the Seahawks got for their 12th overall pick. But we can use this information for future trades, as it seems like teams are now valuing quantity of picks over quality, and that's a potentially exploitable market inefficiency.

<em>This FanPost was written by a Windy City Gridiron member, and does not necessarily reflect the ideas or opinions of its staff or community.</em>

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